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Week 8 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet – 2024

Here’s DFS Hub’s Week 8 look at what’s cooking in NFL fantasyland:

  • Bo Nix Runs: The Broncos’ QB is like a Swiss Army knife against a Panthers defense that’s as tough as wet tissue paper, allowing the fifth-most DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points to QBs.
  • Tua Tagovailoa’s Comeback: He’s back. After a Week 2 concussion, Tua might make Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle look like they were shot out of a cannon against the Cardinals’ flimsy pass defense.
  • Jalen McMillan’s New Spotlight: With Godwin out for good and Evans benched until Week 12, McMillan’s the main man in Tampa Bay.
  • 49ers vs. Cowboys DFS Bonanza: This game is basically DFS Christmas, especially for those eyeing 49ers’ offensive players. Grab your presents early in this one.

Read on for more player gems from DraftKings’ main slate, and a peek into our methodology.

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Quick Tip

If you don’t know what the fields below mean,
hit up the NFL DFS Field Glossary.

Quarterback (QB)

On top this week: Caleb Williams: The Chicago rookie has a solid Cost/Op this week, the best of our QB shortlist. With Williams projected to have many opportunities against a middling Washington D, the Bears QB could provide DFS players with ample value in Week 8. Williams has been hot lately, with over 23.0 fantasy points in three of his last four games, while picking up nine touchdowns across that stretch.

Methodology: We seek QBs on teams expected to score more than average, with above-average pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage, according to PFF grades.

DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > -0.5 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < .5 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .3 & [Spread] < 3, and ranked by overall matchup, player performance (e.g., [ANY/A]) and value (e.g., [Cost/Op]).
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Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams (Photo by Shaun Brooks/Action Plus/Icon Sportswire)

To see all QB’s matching this criteria

Go to the NFL DFS Lineup Builder

Running Back (RB)

On top this week: Javonte Williams: Carolina has a DvPL4 of 37.8 FPs, and Williams just scored his first two touchdowns of the season in Week 7. Williams has also surpassed 100 all-purpose yards in two of his last three games, and a matchup with the league’s worst defense in points allowed to RBs could be a recipe for more. With a Tgt%L3 of 18%, Williams will have ample opportunity to rack up points.

Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RBs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 2.5 & [PrjFP] > 13 & [Prop1TD] < -100 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > -.5 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).

Denver Broncos RB Javonte Williams (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

Wide Receiver (WR)

On top this week: Tim Patrick: With Jameson Williams out of the lineup, Tim Patrick moves up the depth chart of an electric Lions offense. Patrick has the lowest TDCost of our WR shortlist, and with a salary of just $3,500, a touchdown would quickly provide DFS players with some sneaky value. With Sam LaPorta struggling to get things going this season, Patrick may step up for Detroit’s in Week 8.

Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD prop odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WRs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 4 & [Spread] < 3 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFPASSSd] > -.3 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
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Detroit Lions WR Tim Patrick (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire)

Tight End (TE)

On top this week: Tucker Kraft: With four TDs in the last four weeks, Kraft sees the ball often in the red zone. The Green Bay pass catcher matches up with a Jacksonville D ranked 28th in the league in FPs allowed to tight ends. With a DvPL4 of nearly 20, Kraft could put points on the board.

Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary — unless the matchup is lip-smacking. We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected opportunities. Home favorites and some red zone looks don’t hurt either. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Spread] < 3 & [PrjOps] > 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost] and > 0 [RedZnOpsL4]).
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Green Bay Packers TE Tucker Kraft (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)

Defense and Special Teams (DST)

On top this week: Denver Broncos: The Panthers will be without Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen. The struggling Bryce Young will be slotting back in at quarterback. If things weren’t bleak enough for Carolina’s offense, they’re facing a Denver D with at least 11 fantasy points in three of the last four weeks.

Methodology: We want a cost-effective better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.

DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 23 & [Sal($k)] <4 & [Spread < 2.5] & [PFFOppOFFSd] < .4, and ranked by overall match-up (e.g., [PFFOppPBLKSd]) and team pressures (e.g., [QBHits%L4]).

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Week 7 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet – 2024

Week 7’s NFL menu is hotter than a jalapeño-eating contest in hell.

  • First, the Detroit Lions (4-1) are prowling into Viking territory (5-0) for a cage match to crown the NFC North leader.
  • Next, we have a Super Bowl LVIII encore as the Chiefs battle the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium.
  • On an individual player note, all eyes are on the Browns’ Nick Chubb. His return from a stomach-turning knee injury could be the lifeline the Browns’ offense needs.

Storylines aside, we’ve crunched more numbers than a calculus textbook to sniff out Week 7’s gems. Use these ideas to sprinkle potential magic on your DraftKings’ main slate lineup.

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Quick Tip

If you don’t know what the fields below mean,
hit up the NFL DFS Field Glossary.

Quarterback (QB)

On top this week: Jared Goff: Goff has thrown for over 290 yards in each of his last two games to go along with five TDs and no interceptions. The Lions QB is averaging over 21 fantasy points per game and should not be too highly impacted by Minnesota’s D, which ranks 9th overall in FPs allowed to QBs. It was just two weeks ago that Goff torched the 3rd ranked Seattle D for 27.2 fantasy points, showing that no matchup is too tough for the veteran quarterback.

Methodology: We seek QBs on teams expected to score more than average, with above-average pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage, according to PFF grades.

DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > -0.3 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < .3 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .3 & ranked by overall matchup, player performance (e.g., [ANY/A]) and value (e.g., [Cost/Op]).
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Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)

To see all QB’s matching this criteria

Go to the NFL DFS Lineup Builder

Running Back (RB)

On top this week: Bijan Robinson: The young Atlanta RB finally showed his first round potential last week as he picked up over 100 yards and two touchdowns. Robinson should be able to keep the good times rolling as he matches up with the Seahawks, who have a DvPL4 of 28.9 fantasy points. If the Falcons can improve upon his Tgt%L3 of 11%, Robinson should be able to take his game to the next level.

Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RBs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 2.5 & [PrjFP] > 14 & [Prop1TD] < -50 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > -.3 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < .3 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).

Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson (Photo by John Byrum/Icon Sportswire)

Wide Receiver (WR)

On top this week: Noah Brown: Brown has had a floor of three receptions in each game he’s played this season. After a team-high eight targets in Week 6, Brown could be poised to put up points against a bad Carolina defense. The Panthers own a DvPL4 of 39.6 FPs against wide receivers and with the continued emergence of Jadyen Daniels, the low-priced Brown ($4,000) will have the chance to provide good value.

Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD prop odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WRs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 4 & [Spread] < 3 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFPASSSd] > -.3 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .3 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
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Washington Commanders WR Noah Brown (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)

Tight End (TE)

On top this week: George Kittle: The Niners are favorites this weekend as they play host to KC and Kittle will have every chance to shine against a Chiefs D ranked 31st in the NFL in FPs allowed to tight ends. Kittle has seen a median of 2.0 Red Zone Opportunities in the last four weeks and has scored at least one touchdown in each of those games. With a Tgt%L4 of 22%, the veteran TE will have plenty of chances to put up numbers against a vulnerable Kansas City defense.

Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary — unless the matchup is lip-smacking. We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected opportunities. Home favorites and some red zone looks don’t hurt either. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Spread] < 2 & [PrjOps] > 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost] and > 0 [RedZnOpsL4]).
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San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle (Photo by Matthew Huang/Icon Sportswire)

Defense and Special Teams (DST)

On top this week: Eagles: The Birds have given up less than 150 yards through the air in two of their last three games. Against a Giants offense ranked just 26th in the NFL in FPs put up against opposing defenses, the Eagles will look to terrorize a turnover prone Daniel Jones. The Giants QB has also managed just two touchdowns in the last three weeks and with star wide receiver Malik Nabers nursing some injuries, this could prove to be a money matchup for the Philly D.

Methodology: We want a cost-effective better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.

DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 23 & [Sal($k)] <4 & [Spread < 2.5] & ranked by overall match-up (e.g., [PFFOppPBLKSd]) and team pressures (e.g., [QBHits%L4]).

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Week 6 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet – 2024

It’s Week 6, and NFL weatherman will be hard at work. Keep your eyes peeled on those forecasts, as the rain probabilities are high in multiple games.

That aside, and after examining all 10 contests for this Sunday, October 13, DFS Hub has posted its Week 6 DFS cheat sheet below. The mission: use the site’s player filters and predictive metrics to spotlight fantasy value.

So, let’s skip the drumroll and dive right in to DFS Hub’s VIP list for DraftKings’ week 6 main slate.

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Quick Tip

If you don’t know what the fields below mean,
hit up the NFL DFS Field Glossary.

Quarterback (QB)

On top this week: Jordan Love: Despite throwing five interceptions in three games, Jordan Love is averaging nearly 23 fantasy points per game on the season. Love’s Week 6 opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, rank 23rd in the NFL in FPs allowed to QBs. With the return of Romeo Doubs to the lineup, Love will have plenty of opportunity to exceed his solid floor of 17 FPs.

Methodology: We seek QBs on teams expected to score more than average, with above-average pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage, according to PFF grades.

DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > 0 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < 0 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < 0 & ranked by overall matchup, player performance (e.g., [ANY/A]) and value (e.g., [Cost/Op]).
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Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)

To see all QB’s matching this criteria

Go to the NFL DFS Lineup Builder

Running Back (RB)

On top this week: Bijan Robinson: It’s no secret that Bijan Robinson has had some trouble living up to his price tag so far this season. If there was ever a game to get it right however, it’ll be against the league’s worst ranked D in fantasy points allowed to running backs. The Carolina Panthers have a DvPL4 of 32.2 FPs, and Robinson will have a good shot at exceeding 100 yards for the first time this season.

Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RBs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 2.5 & [PrjFP] > 14 & [Prop1TD] < -50 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > 0 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < 0 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).

Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

Wide Receiver (WR)

On top this week: Jayden Reed: Reed has been peppered with 20 targets the last three weeks, which has led to the WR averaging 89 yards through the air per game. With 23% of Green Bay targets going to Reed during his previous three games, Reed and Love have a chance to feast against an Arizona D that is ranks in the middle of the league in FPs allowed to wide receivers.

Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD prop odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WRs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 4 & [Spread] < 3 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < 0 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
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Green Bay Packers WR Jayden Reed (Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire)

Tight End (TE)

On top this week: Cade Otton: Otton has had a floor of 44 yards and a ceiling of 52 yards during the last three weeks. With 21 targets in those games, Otton has become a reliable and affordable tight end for DFS players to slot into their lineups. The New Orleans Saints are ranked 22nd in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to tight ends and Otton should be a beneficiary of that generous defense.

Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary. We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected opportunities. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [Sal($k)] <4 & [PrjOps] > 4 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers TE Cade Otton (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

Defense and Special Teams (DST)

On top this week: Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers have forced eight turnovers on the season and no opponent has put up more than 27 points against them thus far. The Raiders are once again without Davante Adams and with their QB room in turmoil, the Steelers will look to feast on a vulnerable offense.

Methodology: We want a cost-effective better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.

DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 22 & [Sal($k)] <4 & [Spread < 2.5] & ranked by overall match-up (e.g., [PFFOppPBLKSd]) and team pressures (e.g., [QBHits%L4]).

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Week 5 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet – 2024

Week 5 is here, and finally, there are four weeks of current-season data to analyze matchups. After dissecting all 12 contests for this Sunday, October 6, we’ve compiled the Week 5 DFS cheat sheet below. The mission: highlight value plays that showcase the site’s player filters and predictive metrics.

So, without further ado, here’s DFS Hub’s VIP (very important player) list for today’s DraftKings main slate — along with reasons why these players are top-shelf.

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Quick Tip

If you don’t know what the fields below mean,
hit up the NFL DFS Field Glossary.

Quarterback (QB)

On top this week: Caleb Williams: The rookie QB enters Week 5 with a juicy matchup against a Carolina D sporting a DvPL4 of 19.8 fantasy points. While Williams has failed to eclipse at least 12 FPs in three of his four games, the Bears quarterback has averaged over 230 yards per game since his Week 1 outing of just 93 passing yards. Against a poor D, Williams will have a chance to provide solid value with his $5,800 DraftKings salary.

Methodology: We seek QBs on teams expected to score more than average, with above-average pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage, according to PFF grades.

DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > 0 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < 0 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < 0 & ranked by overall matchup, player performance (e.g., [ANY/A]) and value (e.g., [Cost/Op]).
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Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams (Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)

To see all QB’s matching this criteria

Go to the NFL DFS Lineup Builder

Running Back (RB)

On top this week: Jordan Mason: Mason continues to dominate with CMC out of the lineup and this week should be no different with a matchup against an Arizona defense ranked 28th in the league in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Mason has also gotten more involved in the passing game, with a season-high 37 receiving yards and three targets in Week 4. With TDs in three of four games, Mason provides a pretty safe floor.

Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RBs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 2.5 & [PrjFP] > 15 & [Prop1TD] < -50 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > 0 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < 0 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).

San Francisco 49ers RB Jordan Mason (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)

Wide Receiver (WR)

On top this week: Jayden Reed: With Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs out of the lineup, Reed will have plenty of opportunities to be the lead pass catcher for Green Bay. Reed made the most of his eight targets in Week 4, hauling in 139 yards in a touchdown. Against an LA Rams D ranked 27th in the league in FPs allowed to wide receivers, Reed might be in line for one of Week 5’s biggest performances.

Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD prop odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WRs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 4 & [Spread] < 2.5 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < 0 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
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Green Bay Packers WR Jayden Reed (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)

Tight End (TE)

On top this week: Tucker Kraft: Reed wasn’t the only player who saw considerable target share in Week 4, as Kraft’s nine targets were more than he’d seen through his first three games. The Rams are right at the bottom of the league in FPs allowed to tight ends, ranked 29th overall. Kraft should also be a beneficiary of Green Bay’s banged-up pass catchers, and with a DraftKings salary of just $3,500, he’s a great Week 5 value play.

Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary. We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected opportunities. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [Sal($k)] <4 & [PrjOps] > 4 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
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Green Bay Packers TE Tucker Kraft (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)

Defense and Special Teams (DST)

On top this week: Denver Broncos: The Denver D has put up double-digit points in three of their four games this season while not once allowing more than 185 passing yards. The Raiders offense is in flux, and without Davante Adams there aren’t many threats in their lineup.

Methodology: We want a cost-effective better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.

DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 22 & [Sal($k)] <4 & [Spread < 2.5] & ranked by overall match-up (e.g., [PFFOppPBLKSd]) and team pressures (e.g., [QBHits%L4]).

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Week 4 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet – 2024

Week 4 looks like a thriller. Among the marquee matchups:

Aaron Rodgers is favored by over a touchdown at home against the Denver Broncos.

Sam Darnold’s Minnesota Vikings visit the Green Bay Packers in a divisional clash.

After dissecting all the matchups, DFS Hub presents the Week 4 DFS cheat sheet below. Its mission: spotlighting top picks and showcasing the site’s player filters, using our standard weekly criteria by position.

So, without further ado, here’s a peek at the Hub’s DraftKings main slate VIP list—plus the lowdown on why these players are the crème de la crème.

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Quick Tip

If you don’t know what the fields below mean,
hit up the NFL DFS Field Glossary.

Quarterback (QB)

On top this week: Kyler Murray: Murray matches up with an absolutely dreadful Washington D that ranks dead last in the NFL in fantasy allowed to QBs. The Commanders have a DvPL4 of 27.9 FPs which certainly bodes well for Murray, who has also contributed an average of over 50 yards per game this season on the ground.

Methodology: We seek QBs on teams that’ll score more than average, with good pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage. And we sort by the highest Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt [ANY/A].

DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > 0 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < 0 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < 0 & ranked by highest [ANY/A]
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(Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

To see all QB’s matching this criteria

Go to the NFL DFS Lineup Builder

Running Back (RB)

On top this week: Jordan Mason: Mason has a snap share of 81% in his three games this season with no signs of slowing down. The CMC replacement has had a solid floor this year, with 88 total yards being his season low. Against a middling New England run D (ranked 14th in the league in FPs allowed to running backs,) Mason should be able to maintain that floor.

Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RBs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 2.5 & [PrjFP] > 15 & [Prop1TD] < -50 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > 0 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < 0 & ranked by lowest [TDCost].

(Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)

Wide Receiver (WR)

On top this week: Michael Wilson: With Trey McBride out of the lineup, Wilson could be the beneficiary of Kyler Murray’s tosses. Wilson saw 9 targets in Week 3 while putting up a season-high 14.4 fantasy points. Similar to its inability to contain QBs, the Washington D is ranked 32nd in the NFL in FPs allowed to wide receivers. With Marvin Harrison Jr. sure to take up much of Washington’s focus, Wilson should have opportunities to fill up the stat sheet.

Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD prop odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WRs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 5 & [Spread] < 2.5 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < 0 & ranked by lowest implied TD cost [TDCost].
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(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Tight End (TE)

On top this week: Elijah Higgins: Higgins slides in to replace Trey McBride in a game that we clearly feel will be filled with fantasy gems. With a DraftKings salary of $3,100, the price tag is friendly on Higgins as well. Higgins will only need to chip in a little more than 9 fantasy points to provide DFS players with 3.0X value. So, while TD dependant (and his TD prop line isn’t that bad at +223), Higgins has the potential for value.

Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary. We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected opportunities. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [Sal($k)] <4 & [PrjOps] > 3 & ranked by lowest [TDCost].
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(Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

Defense and Special Teams (DST)

On top this week: Steelers: For the third week in a row, we’re going with the black and gold. Indy QB Anthony Richardson is coming off of back to back duds with 5 interceptions across two games. The Steelers are stellar against the run, ranked 2nd in the league in fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs. So if the Colts were thinking they could lean on Jonathan Taylor instead of their quarterback, they may be in for a rude awakening.

Methodology: We want a cost-effective better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.

DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 22 & [Sal($k)] <3.6 & [Spread] < 3 & ranked by highest [QBHits%L4].

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Week 3 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet – 2024

Below you’ll find DFS Hub’s week 3 cheat sheet. It gives you a taste of how the site’s filters work while revealing top plays based on DFS Hub’s weekly criteria.

The purpose is to show the community how filters are used in lineup creation. So, without further ado, here’s a peek at the DraftKings VIP list for the main slate — plus the scoop on why these players are cream of the crop.

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Quick Tip

If you don’t know what the fields below mean,
hit up the NFL DFS Field Glossary.

Quarterback (QB)

On top this week: Baker Mayfield: Through the first two games of the season, Mayfield has amassed 474 passing yards, five touchdowns, and a passer rating of 129.1, ranking second in the NFL. He’s completing 73.5% of his passes for 9.7 yards per attempt with 5 TDs. Mayfield, Evans (WR) and Godwin (WR) should expose Denver’s stingy pass defense in the Florida heat. Expect the Bucs to start 3-0 for the first time since 2005.

Methodology: We seek QBs on teams that’ll score more than average, with good pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage. And we sort by the highest Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt [ANY/A].

DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > 0 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < 0 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < 0 & ranked by highest [ANY/A]
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(Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire)

To see all QB’s matching this criteria

Go to the NFL DFS Lineup Builder

Running Back (RB)

On top this week: Alvin Kamara: The Eagles’ run defense has been porous through the first two games, allowing an NFL-high 6.4 yards per carry and 157.5 rushing yards per game. Kamara, fresh off a dominant Week 2 where he amassed 115 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, and 65 receiving yards with a touchdown catch, is well-positioned to exploit these defensive shortcomings.

Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RBs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 2.5 & [PrjFP] > 15 & [Prop1TD] < -50 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > 0 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < 0 & ranked by lowest [TDCost].

(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

Wide Receiver (WR)

On top this week: Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The Seahawks’ offense is showing increased aggression in the passing game, as evidenced by quarterback Geno Smith’s 327 passing yards in Week 2. Building on his career-high 12 receptions for 117 yards in Week 2, Smith-Njigba should see continued high target volume and production against a mid-tier Miami pass D.

Honorable mention: Jameson Williams

Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD prop odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WRs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 5 & [Spread] < 2.5 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < 0 & ranked by lowest opportunity cost [Cost/Op].
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(Photo by Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire)

Tight End (TE)

On top this week: Cade Otton: Cade Otton is a reliable weapon with “pure hands,” says his QB Baker Mayfield. His 1 yard receiving through two games isn’t very inspiring, but that’s what makes him a sneaky candidate for a rebound play. In fact, the Buccs’ OC even apologized for not getting him more involved. Expect more opportunities for Otton this week, and the Broncos may not be expecting it. That said, this is an example of when DFS Hub’s filters need human filtering. This one is a riskier GPP play only.

Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary. We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected opportunities. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [Sal($k)] <4 & [PrjOps] > 3 & ranked by lowest [TDCost].
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(Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire)

Defense and Special Teams (DST)

On top this week: Steelers: We go back to the well with the Steelers. Through the first two games of the season, they’ve allowed just 16 points, ranking second in the NFL for points allowed per game. Their run defense has been particularly stout, conceding only 76.5 rushing yards per game, the fourth-best in the league. The main appeal for DFS, however, is their T.J. Watt-led pass rush which is two standard deviations above the pack, based on PFF grading.

Methodology: We want a cost-effective better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.

DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 22 & [Sal($k)] <3.6 & [Spread] < 3 & ranked by highest [QBHits%L4].

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Draft a lineup in this week’s free NFL DFS contest and win a DFS Hub Season Pass!

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Week 2 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet – 2024

The NFL’s week two is here and we almost have to pinch ourselves. This week, DFS Hub is doing something a little different with the cheat sheet. To show what the site’s filters are made of, we’re revealing the top plays based on DFS Hub’s weekly criteria.

The purpose is to show the community how filters are used in lineup creation. So, without further ado, here’s a peek at the DraftKing’s VIP list for the main slate — plus the scoop on why these players are cream of the crop.

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Quick Tip

If you don’t know what the fields below mean,
hit up the NFL DFS Field Glossary.

Quarterback (QB)

On top this week: Anthony Richardson, after a tough Week 1 loss, is ready to ignite the Colts with plays that should probably require a fire permit. This blockbuster double-threat has a cannon that’s a registered weapon (exhibit A: this 60-yard bomb to Pierce last week). This week, he gets the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau, a team that coughed up 34 points and over 270+ passing yards to the Eagles last week.

Methodology: We seek QBs on teams that’ll score more than average, with good pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage. And we sort by the highest Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt [ANY/A].

DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > 0 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < 0 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < 0 & ranked by highest [ANY/A]
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(Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire)

To see all QB’s matching this criteria

Go to the NFL DFS Lineup Builder

Running Back (RB)

On top this week: Yes, Jahmyr Gibbs splits time with David Montgomery, but that’s okay—because he also moonlights as a receiver. Gibbs’s speed, hands and big play ability make him too hard to pass up. The Lions will try to effectively utilize Gibbs in space, and that could be a difference-maker in this game. Against a Buccaneers defense that generously gifted 101 receiving yards to running backs in Week 1, Gibbs is poised to run through them like a ghost.

Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RB’s with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 2.5 & [PrjFP] > 15 & [Prop1TD] < -50 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > 0 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < 0 & ranked by lowest [TDCost].

(Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire)

Wide Receiver (WR)

On top this week: After catching 14 passes for 110 yards last week, Cooper Kupp will look to exploit Arizona’s secondary. With Matthew Stafford back in form, it’s all about target share. Expect Kupp to be the Rams’ offensive go-to with Puka Nacua sidelined. Kupp has an 86.5 yard over/under prop and a healthy -117 TD moneyline.

Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD prop odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WR’s with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 5 & [Spread] < 2.5 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < 0 & ranked by lowest opportunity cost [Cost/Op].
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(Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire)

Tight End (TE)

On top this week: Luke Schoonmaker should replace Jake Ferguson (doubtful, knee) and represents a low-cost lottery ticket at the position. The second-year Michigan product played all 17 games last season and caught a whopping eight passes on 15 targets for 65 yards and two touchdowns. Backup John Stephens (hamstring) will also be out. Could this start be Schoonmaker’s breakout game? We’ll pay the $2,900 to see.

Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary . We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected opportunities. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [Sal($k)] <4 & [PrjOps] > 2 & ranked by lowest [TDCost].
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(Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire)

Defense and Special Teams (DST)

On top this week: The Steelers’ defense looks like that garage sale bargain you can’t ignore. Facing off against the Broncos, Pittsburgh’s elite pass rush is set to feast on Denver’s makeshift O-line. With T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith revving up, expect a sack fest and some turnover treats.

Methodology: We want a cost-effective better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.

DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 22 & [Sal($k)] <3.6 & [Spread] < 3 & ranked by highest [QBHits%L4].

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Draft a lineup in this week’s free NFL DFS contest and win a DFS Hub Season Pass!

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Week 1 NFL DFS Cheatsheet – 2023

Week 1 2023 NFL cheat sheet

In week 1, DFS Hub is serving up a four-course meal of contrarian picks, backup gems, and high-value props, led off by our house selection of NFL games to target.

And while we’re not claiming to have cracked the DFS Da Vinci code, we’re working our socks off to ensure these NFL DFS Week 1 notes pack a punch. (Note: This fantasy buffet is cooked up specifically for Sunday’s “main slate” DraftKing’s contest.)

Shootouts: 3 Games That Could Generate Hefty Fantasy Totals

Here’s a trio of matchups with the potential to rain fantasy points like confetti at a Mardi Gras parade.

  1. Miami Dolphins (+3) at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) — O/U: 50.5
  2. Cincinnati Bengals (-2) at Cleveland Browns (+2) — O/U: 47.5
    • Nick Chubb may propel himself into the upper echelon of NFL running backs this season.
    • QB Deshaun Watson will try to open strong to justify Cleveland’s investment in him.
    • If Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase both get red, this could be a high-scoring affair.
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) at Indianapolis Colts (+4.5) — O/U: 46.5
  1. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers, $4,900
    • Brandon Aiyuk had a strong finish to the regular season last year, averaging 17.6 fantasy points in his final three games prior to the playoffs.
    • George Kittle is on the mend, leaving a bit more room in the once-crowded 49ers offense for Aiyuk.
    • Many would consider Aiyuk the 49er’s 5th-highest FP-scorer. This week he could prove more fruitful.
  2. J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens, $6,600
    • It’s Houston. The Texans are 2 standard deviations below average in PFF run defense grade.
    • At BAL -10, J.K. Dobbins could enjoy bonus carries if this one gets lopsided early.
    • He’s projected to be only 3% owned and has a +102 TD prop line.
  3. Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans, $4,600
    • The Texans are huge dogs against the Ravens but somebody has to eat on this offense.
    • During his last four games of 2022 Dalton Schultz had five touchdowns with a floor of 8 targets
    • He could offer much-needed support for his rookie quarterback.

HOUSTON, TX – AUGUST 19: Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz (83) in the second quarter during the preseason NFL game between the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans on August 19, 2023 at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

Backup Brilliance: Fill-in players at cheap salaries with splash potential

  1. Deon Jackson, RB, Indianapolis Colts, $4,100
    • With Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss battling injuries for the Colts, Deon Jackson is the next man up.
    • Jackson is a competent pass catcher, as shown by his 75 yards receiving on 7 targets in Week 18.
    • The Jacksonville D was middle of the road against running backs last year.
    • With a $4,100 DraftKings salary, throwing Jackson in at Flex may spell cheap points.
  2. Luke Musgrave, TE, Green Bay Packers, $2,900
    • OK, a TE is not exactly a sub for a WR, but Green Bay may be missing its WR1 and WR2, so close enough.
    • Rookie Luke Musgrave was one of Jordan Love’s favorite targets this pre-season and could see high TgT%
  3. Jamaal Williams, RB, New Orleans Saints, $5,100
    • Jamaal Williams led the NFL his 17 rushing touchdowns last season and Alvin Kamara is out.
    • He also managed to run for over 1,000 yards while sharing the backfield in Detroit.
    • Williams has the third-best [TDCost] of any player on the main slate.

      (TD Cost is a DFS Hub field that measures how much a guaranteed TD would cost based on the player’s salary and prop-implied probability of scoring. Lower numbers are better.)

Prop Bonanza: Players with high prop-to-salary ratios

  1. Marvin Mims Jr., WR, Denver Broncos, $3,000
    • Speedy Marvin Mims Jr. has the best [TDCost] of any player on the main slate
    • He should be in line for more targets with Jerry Jeudy (hamstring) not practicing in full this week
    • Vegas had a coverage grade that was 1.5 standard deviations below average last year (i.e., ca ca).
  2. Cam Akers, RB, LA Rams, $6,200
    • Cam Akers is coming off three straight 100-yard performances and Seattle has only an average Run-D
    • WR Cooper Kupp is out and Akers can catch out of the backfield
    • He’s got a +102 prop TD line, a favorable TD Cost of $12.52 and he plays very well in Lumen field
  3. Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins, $5,400
    • Speedster Raheem Mostert is top 4 on this slate in yards after contact & Miami’s WRs will spread the field
    • He faces a porous run-D (LAC gave up 5.6 ypc in 2022) and has modest expected competition for carries.

Don’t forget to enter this week’s free NFL DFS contest for cash!

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New: NFL Defense Injury Report & Sharp Bettor Report

NFL defense injury and sharp bettor reports

If you’re one of those folks who loves to analyze defensive injuries and sharp money bets over your morning coffee, this might just streamline your weekly ritual.

Introducing DFS Hub’s fresh-off-the-press NFL Defense Injuries & Sharp Bettor Report.

It’s got two simple purposes:

  1. To tell you who’s hurt—that matters—on NFL defenses.
    • That way, you can avoid these defenses (DSTs) if appropriate, and/or exploit them with opposing offensive players
  2. To lend a sense of who the smart money is backing this week.
    • Use these clues to adjust player expectations in cases where sharps are heavily investing in a team, relative to the percentage of bets on that team.

Give these new reports a spin. They may be worth ditching the morning donut over.

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10 Reasons to Avoid an NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer

Why You Should Avoid DFS Optimizers in 2023

Preview

“I do all of my lineup building without any of the DFS optimizers.”—David Bergman, $2.5-million winner in the 2020 DraftKings’ Fantasy Football World Championship

New daily fantasy players often ask, “What is the best DFS lineup optimizer?”

That’s often followed by the question, “How do you use a DFS optimizer?

But those aren’t the questions new DFS players should be asking. What they should be asking is, “Is an Optimizer something I should even be usingl?”

Relying on “off-the-shelf” optimizers is virtually guaranteed to result in underperformance versus astute hand-crafted lineups, for the reasons that follow. We’d urge all readers to carefully consider the facts below before risking any money with an NFL DFS optimizer.

Reasons You Should Not Use a DFS Optimizer

  1. You think they simply work…like magic.
    • Optimizers don’t think. They use common algorithms to generate random lineups. And those lineups aren’t even perfectly “optimized” (more on that below). Optimizers don’t know which players are not playing at a peak level. They don’t know player trends. They don’t know historical relationships. Those things are gathered from experience, research and modeling, which off-the-shelf optimizers won’t give you. Optimizers are anything but set-and-forget tools. Apart from faulty inputs (e.g., bad projections), operator error is their biggest risk.
  2. You like to build just a few lineups
    • If your game of choice is single-entry contests, optimizers simply aren’t as useful — especially for cash games. For double-ups and 50/50s, you rarely need more than 1-3 lineups. After all, you’re searching for players with the highest floors. A proficient single lineup DFS player will easily beat your typical optimizer-generated single lineup the majority of the time. But wait, the pros swear by the optimizers they sell. How can they not work? Well, it’s not that the automated optimizers don’t work. It’s that they probably won’t work for you. Pros with fat bankrolls use optimizers to create dozens, even hundreds, of lineups. They rely on correlations and variance and build complex algorithms into their optimizers. In any event, you can be darned sure they’re not selling the secret sauce that makes them pros for $49 a month.
  3. Optimizers rely too heavily on projections
    • All fantasy point projections are inaccurate—be they total points, ceilings, floors, or what have you, they’re inaccurate. Yet, those same projections are the main variable in optimizer calculations. Worse yet, most optimizers use projected fantasy point averages by default, with little regard for: (A) upside, and (B) how often a player hits his upside. Obviously, what everyone wants/needs are the least wrong projections — those with the least bias (since they’re all biased). A successful optimization system must have more consistent and accurate projections than the crowd. Otherwise, an optimizer will simply magnify projection errors — due to the large number of lineups being created. Relying too heavily on mass-market projections that hundreds of thousands of your competitors rely on dilutes your edge. That’s especially true in GPPs.
  4. Managing variance isn’t easy
    • It’s not just projections you need to worry about. If you’re building multiple lineups in an optimizer, managing variance is essential. Among other things, it means adjusting player projections up and down by the right amount to get the optimal diversity of lineups. But here’s the problem. What if you adjust a projection higher because you think the opponent’s poor defense is not fully factored into the projection? But then again, what if it is actually factored in?  What you’ve just done is boost the projection error.
  5. Optimizers hinge on exposures
    • Determining the correct percentage of rosters that a given player will appear in is fundamental to optimization. You don’t want to be overexposed or underexposed to anyone. Getting this part of the process wrong significantly reduces the chances of success. So does over-limiting the player pool your optimizer can pull from (i.e. excluding too many players from your “short list”). If you’re making these kinds of foundational decisions, you could just as easily spend that effort on perfecting a manual lineup construction process.
  6. Optimizers rely on ownership optimization
    • You have to set limits on aggregate ownership (i.e., the total combined ownership of all players in your lineup). There’s more science than art in that. Moreover, game theory and projecting the crowd’s opinion of player value remain paramount. This is but one more complexity of optimization prone to error.
  7. Optimizers are only quantitative
    • “Qualitative” factors often get dismissed by optimizer pushers. We touched on this above. Optimizers don’t adequately factor in variables like player and team motives, psychology, shifts in team strategy, environment (e.g., what sort of contests does a player thrive in), the impact of lost teammates, player matchup details, player utilization and so on. How can you find the best DFS QB, for example, if you’re not considering each player’s context that week? The reason optimizers are mainly number crunchers and not context analyzers is that qualitative factors are not like yards or TDs. They cannot be as easily quantified. As a result, qualitative factors can’t be readily plugged into an algorithm. That’s good for you, however, because it creates inefficiency in the market—and exploiting inefficiency is how you win. To put this all another way, optimizers rely too heavily on mass-market data. The more people who know a piece of DFS information, the less valuable that information becomes.
  8. Most People Lose
    • Roughly 73% of DFS players lose, as of the time this is being written. The top 1% make 45% of the money on DraftKings, as of this writing. More interestingly, a 2015 report found that the top 11 DFS players spend $2 million+ in entry fees a year on average, and they’re all using optimizers of some sort. But if you’re trying to exploit Draftkings inefficiencies, you don’t want to toil away competing against stat geniuses who run multi-million-dollar quant models on a custom NFL DraftKings optimizer. You want to do something different, like find a consistent niche methodology (possibly a more qualitative approach) and refine it. And remember, increasing your entries with an optimizer may boost your win probability, but does it boost your probability more than it boosts your lineup costs? For most people, the answer is no.
  9. You have limited resources
    • To make optimization worth it on a large scale, you need enough bankroll to deploy enough lineups. And enough time to manage it all. You can’t just create 150 lineups and not look at them before submission. For those with smaller bankrolls, searching for the best overall values can have a higher return on time.
  10. You’re not getting the most optimized lineup
    • With practically infinite player combinations, processing power limitations prevent publicly available optimizers from generating true theoretical top lineups. What you get is an approximation of the most optimized lineup(s) using mathematical and programming shortcuts.

Conclusion: DFS optimizers

Too many optimizer users put too much faith in the simple logic that spits out optimizer recommendations. They see the shiny marketing and the big names associated with these tools, and then they click and pray….and lose.

An optimizer doesn’t just magically give you skill. An optimizer reflects skill. You have to make multiple decisions correctly to leverage an optimizer. Even top pros manually select 2-4 players as locks in all of their lineups. So if you’re going to do all that analysis work for 2-4 players, you might as well perfect your process and do it for the rest of the positions, with a hand-built lineup. At least that way you don’t have to get both your player picks right and get the optimizer settings right.

Don’t get me wrong, optimizers are an incredibly powerful tool in the right hands, with the right logic built in. In fact, once you reach pro level, one might argue that optimizers are the best way to scale your winnings. They’re practically indispensable for the algorithmic selection of 10+ lineups. For the best of the best who may submit 150 lineups in a given contest, imagine the gargantuan effort of creating all those rosters by hand!

But until you graduate to that point, to the point where you’ve refined your winning formula to beat the house edge, where you’re routinely cashing and handily beating the rake, optimizers are better left for another day.

People make a healthy living by hand-curating lineups using reliable disciplined methods that marry qualitative and quantitative analysis. Focus hard on learning what stats matter and improving your process. Whether your system is manual or automated, the DFS game boils down to successfully finding inefficiencies — inefficiencies that most people are too casual or inexperienced to exploit. An optimizer simply won’t be an optimal way for you to return on your investment.