Week 1 NFL DFS Cheatsheet – 2023

In week 1, DFS Hub is serving up a four-course meal of contrarian picks, backup gems, and high-value props, led off by our house selection of NFL games to target.

And while we’re not claiming to have cracked the DFS Da Vinci code, we’re working our socks off to ensure these NFL DFS Week 1 notes pack a punch. (Note: This fantasy buffet is cooked up specifically for Sunday’s “main slate” DraftKing’s contest.)

Shootouts: 3 Games That Could Generate Hefty Fantasy Totals

Here’s a trio of matchups with the potential to rain fantasy points like confetti at a Mardi Gras parade.

  1. Miami Dolphins (+3) at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) — O/U: 50.5
  2. Cincinnati Bengals (-2) at Cleveland Browns (+2)O/U: 47.5
    • Nick Chubb may propel himself into the upper echelon of NFL running backs this season.
    • QB Deshaun Watson will try to open strong to justify Cleveland’s investment in him.
    • If Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase both get red, this could be a high-scoring affair.
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) at Indianapolis Colts (+4.5)O/U: 46.5
  1. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers, $4,900
    • Brandon Aiyuk had a strong finish to the regular season last year, averaging 17.6 fantasy points in his final three games prior to the playoffs.
    • George Kittle is on the mend, leaving a bit more room in the once-crowded 49ers offense for Aiyuk.
    • Many would consider Aiyuk the 49er’s 5th-highest FP-scorer. This week he could prove more fruitful.
  2. J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens, $6,600
    • It’s Houston. The Texans are 2 standard deviations below average in PFF run defense grade.
    • At BAL -10, J.K. Dobbins could enjoy bonus carries if this one gets lopsided early.
    • He’s projected to be only 3% owned and has a +102 TD prop line.
  3. Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans, $4,600
    • The Texans are huge dogs against the Ravens but somebody has to eat on this offense.
    • During his last four games of 2022 Dalton Schultz had five touchdowns with a floor of 8 targets
    • He could offer much-needed support for his rookie quarterback.

HOUSTON, TX – AUGUST 19: Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz (83) in the second quarter during the preseason NFL game between the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans on August 19, 2023 at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

Backup Brilliance: Fill-in players at cheap salaries with splash potential

  1. Deon Jackson, RB, Indianapolis Colts, $4,100
    • With Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss battling injuries for the Colts, Deon Jackson is the next man up.
    • Jackson is a competent pass catcher, as shown by his 75 yards receiving on 7 targets in Week 18.
    • The Jacksonville D was middle of the road against running backs last year.
    • With a $4,100 DraftKings salary, throwing Jackson in at Flex may spell cheap points.
  2. Luke Musgrave, TE, Green Bay Packers, $2,900
    • OK, a TE is not exactly a sub for a WR, but Green Bay may be missing its WR1 and WR2, so close enough.
    • Rookie Luke Musgrave was one of Jordan Love’s favorite targets this pre-season and could see high TgT%
  3. Jamaal Williams, RB, New Orleans Saints, $5,100
    • Jamaal Williams led the NFL his 17 rushing touchdowns last season and Alvin Kamara is out.
    • He also managed to run for over 1,000 yards while sharing the backfield in Detroit.
    • Williams has the third-best [TDCost] of any player on the main slate.

      (TD Cost is a DFS Hub field that measures how much a guaranteed TD would cost based on the player’s salary and prop-implied probability of scoring. Lower numbers are better.)

Prop Bonanza: Players with high prop-to-salary ratios

  1. Marvin Mims Jr., WR, Denver Broncos, $3,000
    • Speedy Marvin Mims Jr. has the best [TDCost] of any player on the main slate
    • He should be in line for more targets with Jerry Jeudy (hamstring) not practicing in full this week
    • Vegas had a coverage grade that was 1.5 standard deviations below average last year (i.e., ca ca).
  2. Cam Akers, RB, LA Rams, $6,200
    • Cam Akers is coming off three straight 100-yard performances and Seattle has only an average Run-D
    • WR Cooper Kupp is out and Akers can catch out of the backfield
    • He’s got a +102 prop TD line, a favorable TD Cost of $12.52 and he plays very well in Lumen field
  3. Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins, $5,400
    • Speedster Raheem Mostert is top 4 on this slate in yards after contact & Miami’s WRs will spread the field
    • He faces a porous run-D (LAC gave up 5.6 ypc in 2022) and has modest expected competition for carries.

Don’t forget to enter this week’s free NFL DFS contest for cash!

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