NFL Week 15 is upon us. Here are three matchups ready to serve up fantasy gold, including an under-the-radar gem that might just make your DFS day.
- Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions:
With an over-underA wager, or prediction, on whether the outcome of an event will be higher or lower than the number established by an oddsmaker. In the NFL, over-unders most commonly refer to the total combined points that two teams will score in a game. An over-under of 52 means that linesmakers... of 54.5 points, this game promises a fantasy feast. Lions’ running back Jahmyr Gibbs and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown are primed for big performances against a Bills defense that’s been as sturdy as a wet paper bag. - Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers:
The Cowboys’ offense has found new life with running back Rico Dowdle, who has posted back-to-back 100-yard games. Facing the Panthers’ porous run defense, Dowdle could be the gift that keeps on giving for fantasy managers. - Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles:
Eagles’ running back Saquon Barkley is on a mission to break records and the hearts of opposing defenses. With the Steelers missing key defensive players, Barkley might just run wild and carry your fantasy team to glory.
For more player targets, explore DFS Hub’s DraftKings main slateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... jewels below. They include our methodology, which you can replicate in our NFL lineup builder.
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Quarterback (QB)
On top this week: Kyler Murray – The Patriots have a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. of 25.5 fantasy points against quarterbacks while Murray has had back-to-back games with at least 17 FPsFantasy points. Murray has also rushed for double-digit yards in three of his last four games, giving DFS players an extra boost on the ground. Against a D ranked 21st in the NFL in FPs allowed to QBs, Murray is poised to put up points.
Methodology: We seek QBs on teams expected to score more than average, with above-average pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage, according to PFF grades.
DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > -0.5 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < .5 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .5 & [Spread] < 3.5, and ranked by overall matchup, player performance (e.g., [ANY/A]) and value (e.g., [Cost/Op]).
To see all QB’s matching this criteria
Go to the NFL DFS Lineup Builder
Running Back (RB)
On top this week: Jahmyr Gibbs – Gibbs has not had a single game this season with less than 11 fantasy points. The Detroit sophomore should have no problem reaching that floor against a Buffalo D ranked in the bottom five of the NFL in fantasy points to RBs. Gibbs has also seen increased work in the passing game, with 10 targets in his last two games.
Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RBs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 3 & [PrjFP] > 12 & [Prop1TD] < 110 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > -.5 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Wide Receiver (WR)
On top this week: Amon-Ra St. Brown – While the Detroit Lions offense has many mouths to feed, St. Brown has still managed a Tgt%L4 of 20%. There’s no doubt that St. Brown will play a big part in a big game with an O/U of 54.5 points. The Bills have a DvPL4 of 39.7 fantasy points against WRs and St. Brown will look to fill up the stat sheet for DFS players.
Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD prop odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WRs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 4 & [Spread] < 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFPASSSd] > -.3 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Tight End (TE)
On top this week: Trey McBride – Despite being held without a touchdown over the last four weeks, McBride has put up double-digit fantasy points in each of those four outings. McBride had been nursing a knee injury but is good to go for Week 15. The Patriots are ranked in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to tight ends and, even with his $6,000 price tag, McBride should be able to keep the good times rolling.
Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary — unless the matchup is lip-smacking. We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected opportunities. Being a home favorite and establishing a pattern of red zone looks never hurts, either. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Spread] < 4 & [PrjOps] > 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost] and > 0 [RedZnOpsL4]).
Defense and Special Teams (DST)
On top this week: Arizona Cardinals – The New England Patriots have gone five straight games without scoring at least 25 points. Their QB, Drake Maye, has turned the ball over nine times in his last five games. While Arizona is far from the best defense in the NFL, they’re favored at home and have held the opposition to less than 80 rushing yards in three of the last four games.
Methodology: We want a cost-effective, better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.
DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 23 & [Sal($k)]A DFS Hub field that equals a player's salary divided by $1,000. $4.8 [Sal($k)] equals $4,800, for example. It's a short form of salary to make comparing salaries easier. <4 & [SpreadA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus point spread for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much the favorite will win by, and how much the underdog will lose by. A Spread of -7, for example, means the favorite is expected to win by 7 points. For more, see:
... < 2.5] & [PFFOppOFFSd] < .5, and ranked by overall match-up (e.g., [PFFOppPBLKSd]) and team pressuresA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... (e.g., [QBHits%L4]).
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