Week 2 NFL DFS Cheatsheet – 2023

In Week 2, DFS Hub is serving up another four-course meal of contrarian picks, backup gems, and high-value props, led off by our house selection of NFL games to target.

(Note: This DFS cheat sheet is handcrafted specifically for Sunday’s “main slate” DraftKings contest.)

Shootouts: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

Here’s a trio of matchups with the potential to rain fantasy points like confetti at a Mardi Gras parade.

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) — O/U: 51.0
    • Calvin Ridley didn’t miss a beat in his highly anticipated return to NFL action.
    • With weapons galore, a mature Trevor Lawrence has the talent and team to keep up with KC, at home.
    • Vegas bettors are pounding the KC moneyline and -3 spread in this game, as well as the over (51).
  2. Las Vegas Raiders (+9) at Buffalo Bills (-9)O/U: 47.0
    • After a multitude of turnovers against the Jets in Jersey, Josh Allen must return to form at home.
    • Davante Adams had ~35% of his team’s targets in Week 1 and should continue to dominate those looks.
    • Betting action implies the Raiders could keep it closer than the line suggests.
  3. Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) at Detroit Lions (-5.5)O/U: 46.5
    • The Lions outpaced the reigning champs offense and Jared Goff plays dramatically better at home.
    • Seattle’s deep receiving corp will look to click this week after a tough performance to start the year.
    • Vegas sharp-money betting trends suggest the Seahawks will be a hidden fantasy threat in this game.
  1. Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions, $3,900
    • Despite rookie tight ends often being avoided, Sam LaPorta had five catches on five targets in Week 1.
    • LaPorta had an 83% snap share and is firmly entrenched as Detroit’s starting tight end.
    • SEA allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to tight ends last season and were 30th in TE DVOA in week 1.
  2. Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons $5,500
    • Many expected Bijan Robinson to run the show, but Tyler Allgeier is just as much a part of Atlanta’s offense.
    • Allgeier had 15 carries in Week 1, five more Robinson, and five opportunities in the Red Zone.
    • The second-year running back found the endzone twice in Week 1 and should get chances to score again.
  3. Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans, $4,900
    • The Houston Texans offense is far from impressive, but Nico Collins saw 11 targets in Week 1.
    • Collins has 37 targets across his last four games for Houston.
    • The Colts D was shredded last week through the air, so Collins has a chance to exploit their secondary.
ATLANTA, GA Ð SEPTEMBER 10: Atlanta running back Tyler Allgeier (25) reacts after scoring a touchdown during the NFL game between the Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons on September 10th, 2023 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

Backup Brilliance: Fill-in players at decent salaries with splash potential

  1. Justice Hill, RB, Baltimore Ravens, $4,900
    • Hill scored two rushing TDs last week and got multiple looks in the Red Zone.
    • With JK Dobbins out for the season, Hill should see more opportunities in the passing game as well.
  2. Joshua Kelley, RB Los Angeles Chargers, $5,000
    • Kelley tallied 91 yards and a TD while only getting half the touches in week 1
    • He’s got the lowest cost per expected TD and Ekeler (Doubtful) is likely out, not having practiced all week
  3. AJ Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers, $6,600
    • RB1 Aaron Jones (hamstring) didn’t practice all week and WR1 Christian Watson (hamstring) was limited Fri
    • Dillon will try hard to bounce back from his week 1 dud against a run defense ranked 18th in DVOA

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

  1. David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions, $5,800
    • A goal-line runner behind one of the best O-lines, facing the 20th-ranked rushing defense by DVOA
  2. Josh Reynolds, WR, Detroit Lions, $3,700
    • One of the lowest cost starters relative to his TD prop line
    • QB Goff has great chemistry with his former LA teammate and SEA ranks 30th against WR2s in DVOA
  3. Luke Musgrave, TE, Green Bay Packers, $3,200
    • After a solid week 1 debut, we faces against a beatable ATL tight-end defense
    • With RB Jones and WR Watson banged up, Musgrave is likely to see more action

Don’t forget to enter this week’s free NFL DFS contest for cash!

2 Replies to “Week 2 NFL DFS Cheatsheet – 2023”

    1. Hey Larry,

      Vegas money flow is biased toward SEA and the over, especially on the SEA moneyline where the sharp % (% money – % bets) is now 36% in favor of SEA.

      We like the Seahawk’s chances to keep it close in this game despite DET being a 4.5 point fave. SEA’s offense should get more respect than some are giving them after last week’s loss. Hence, guys like Walker (RB), Lockett (WR2) and Njigba (WR3) may be “hidden” threats.

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