As Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season rolls on, strap in for riveting twists and turns.
For one thing, Christian McCaffrey is back. After ghosting us all with a 9-week injury, he’s making his grand entrance. But there’s a risk he may not get a full workload.
Cowboys Nation is in shambles with Dak’s torn hammy, throwing a wrench into the Cowboys’ offense. Pour one out for CeeDee Lamb’s fantasy value.
In Philly, they’ve ditched passing like it’s out of fashion, going run-heavy with Saquon Barkley as their leading man. The bird’s 34% pass-play-ratio boosts his fantasy value—he’s like the steak in a sea of tofu.
Dive into our methodology below for more DraftKings main slateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... gems.
Quarterback (QB)
On top this week: Kirk Cousins: The veteran QB has enjoyed plenty of success with his new team, especially in the last couple of weeks. The Cuz has seven touchdowns in his most recent two games, to go along with a solid floor of 18.8 fantasy points. The Saints have a depleted defense and a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. of 29.4 FPsFantasy points which means they’re vulnerable to a Cousins outburst.
Methodology: We seek QBs on teams expected to score more than average, with above-average pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage, according to PFF grades.
DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > -0.5 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < .5 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .3 & [Spread] < 3, and ranked by overall matchup, player performance (e.g., [ANY/A]) and value (e.g., [Cost/Op]).
Running Back (RB)
On top this week: Bijan Robinson: New Orleans is ranked 26th in the league in fantasy points allowed to RBs. Robinson has had over 21 fantasy points in each of his last four games. An unstoppable force in Robinson meets a very movable object in the New Orleans Rush defense, meaning Robinson should put up juicy points for the fifth straight week.
Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RBs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 3 & [PrjFP] > 13 & [Prop1TD] < 105 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > -.5 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Wide Receiver (WR)
On top this week: Quentin Johnston: After missing Week 7 and Week 8, Johnson returned to the lineup ready to put up points. The sophomore pass-catcher hauled in a TD and 118 yards through the air, good for a total of 25.0 fantasy points. With a Tgt%L3 of 19%, Johnson will look to be a healthy part of the LA offense in Week 10.
Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WRs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 4 & [Spread] < 3 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFPASSSd] > -.3 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Tight End (TE)
On top this week: George Kittle: The Buccs have been generous in points allowed to tight ends, with the Tampa Bay D ranked 28th in the NFL in FPsFantasy points allowed to TEs. Aside from a Week 1 outing with just 8 fantasy points, Kittle has had a floor of 14.5 FPsFantasy points this season, with over 20 FPsFantasy points in four of his last five games.
Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary — unless the matchup is lip-smacking. We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions, with better-than-average TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). odds and projected opportunities. Home favorites and some red zone looks don’t hurt either. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Spread] < 4 & [PrjOps] > 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost] and > 0 [RedZnOpsL4]).
Defense and Special Teams (DST)
On top this week: Bears: Before Week 9, the Bears had gone four straight games without giving up 20 points to their opponent. They match up with a New England offense that hasn’t provided much of a threat against opposing Ds, especially in DFS. Chicago is the best team in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to QBs and their D will look to take advantage of the opposing rookie quarterback.
Methodology: We want a cost-effective better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.
DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 23 & [Sal($k)]A DFS Hub field that equals a player's salary divided by $1,000. $4.8 [Sal($k)] equals $4,800, for example. It's a short form of salary to make comparing salaries easier. <4 & [SpreadA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus point spread for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much the favorite will win by, and how much the underdog will lose by. A Spread of -7, for example, means the favorite is expected to win by 7 points. For more, see:
... < 2.5] & [PFFOppOFFSd] < .4, and ranked by overall match-up (e.g., [PFFOppPBLKSd]) and team pressuresA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... (e.g., [QBHits%L4]).
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