The 2024 NFL season has reached Week 11, and it’s shaping up to deliver thrilling storylines. Highlighting the main slateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam..., we’ve got:
- Ravens vs. Steelers: Two teams walk into a bar… and they light up the scoreboard. Despite their history of snoozefests, this game’s got the week’s highest Over/Under. In fact, the line on receiving yards for Steelers’ WR Pickens has inflated by 5, reflecting a Ravens’ defense that leaks yards like a sieve.
- Christian McCaffrey’s Matchup: Facing a top-5 worst schedule-adjusted rushing defense (Seattle) over the last five weeks, McCaffrey’s consistent workload and versatility could make him the most owned player on the slate.
- Can Chubb Get Back on Track? Saints fans aside, everyone’s rooting for Chubber to bounce back from his grievous injury. Conveniently, he faces the worst rushing defense (New Orleans) over the last five weeks in opponent-adjusted run D.
Check out DFS Hub’s methodology below to uncover more DraftKings main slate treasures.
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Quarterback (QB)
On top this week: Brock Purdy: After a slow start to his 2024 campaign, Brock Purdy has had four straight games with over 20 fantasy points. The San Francisco quarterback matches up against a Seattle defense that owns a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. of 19.7 fantasy points, giving Purdy a good shot at reaching 20 FPsFantasy points once again. Purdy has also avoided turning the ball over, with no interceptions in three of his last four games.
Methodology: We seek QBs on teams expected to score more than average, with above-average pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage, according to PFF grades.
DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > -0.5 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < .5 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .3 & [Spread] < 3, and ranked by overall matchup, player performance (e.g., [ANY/A]) and value (e.g., [Cost/Op]).
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Running Back (RB)
On top this week: Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey showed very little rust in his season debut last week, putting up over 100 all purpose yards. CMC has a juicy matchup in the Seahawks, as they’re ranked 25th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to running backs. McCaffrey has seen a Tgt%L4 of 20% dating back to last season and the veteran RB should be plenty involved in the passing game once again in Week 11.
Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RBs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 3 & [PrjFP] > 13 & [Prop1TD] < 105 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > -.5 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Wide Receiver (WR)
On top this week: George Pickens: Pickens has been a huge part of the Pittsburgh offense lately, with a Tgt%L4 of 28%. The wide receiver has a juicy matchup with a Baltimore defense ranked dead last in the league in FPs allowed to opposing pass catchers. With his first two touchdowns of the season coming in two of his last three games, Pickens is poised to continue to build off that momentum.
Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD prop odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WRs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 4 & [Spread] < 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFPASSSd] > -.3 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Tight End (TE)
On top this week: Jonnu Smith: The veteran tight end has seen at least six targets in four of his last five games. The Raiders are ranked 28th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to tight ends while Smith has racked up at least 45 receiving yards in four of the last five weeks. While Smith only has one touchdown on the season, the Raiders have been generous to tight ends when it comes to giving up TDs. With a salary of just $3,800, Smith could be a sneaky value play in Week 11.
Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary — unless the matchup is lip-smacking. We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected opportunities. Home favorites and some red zone looks don’t hurt either. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Spread] < 4 & [PrjOps] > 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost] and > 0 [RedZnOpsL4]).
Defense and Special Teams (DST)
On top this week: Browns: With the Saints losing WR Chris Olave, their already banged up offense is down one of their best players. Alvin Kamara, the best weapon the Saints have, matches up against a strong Cleveland Run D that ranked 9th in the NFL in FPs allowed to running backs.
Methodology: We want a cost-effective better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.
DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 23 & [Sal($k)]A DFS Hub field that equals a player's salary divided by $1,000. $4.8 [Sal($k)] equals $4,800, for example. It's a short form of salary to make comparing salaries easier. <4 & [SpreadA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus point spread for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much the favorite will win by, and how much the underdog will lose by. A Spread of -7, for example, means the favorite is expected to win by 7 points. For more, see:
... < 2.5] & [PFFOppOFFSd] < .4, and ranked by overall match-up (e.g., [PFFOppPBLKSd]) and team pressuresA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... (e.g., [QBHits%L4]).
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