Rolling into Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season, here are three main slateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... games that promise a fantasy point explosion:
- Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders:
Before tailing off in recent weeks, rookie QB Jayden Daniels was lighting it up like a firework show, mixing passing yards with rushing TDs. Against a Cowboys defense that’s more welcoming to rushing QBs than a hotel concierge, Daniels could be set for a standout performance. - Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers:
Despite a season marked by interceptions, Patrick Mahomes remains a top fantasy option. Facing the Panthers’ defense, which ranks last in points allowed, Mahomes is primed for a scoring spree. - Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts:
Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is on a scoring bender, with eight consecutive games featuring a touchdown. Facing the Colts’ 26th-ranked pass defense, St. Brown and the Lions are poised for win #10.
For more players to target, dive into DFS Hub’s DraftKings main slate gems below. They come complete with our methodology, which you can replicate in our NFL lineup builder.
Quick Tip
If you don’t know what the fields below mean,
hit up the NFL DFS Field Glossary.
Quarterback (QB)
On top this week: Tua Tagovailoa – The oft-injured Miami QB is coming off his first game with over 18 fantasy points since his Week 8 return. While Tagovailoa’s numbers haven’t been great the last four weeks, the Dolphins have scored at least 27 points in three of those games. With a salary of just $5,800, his lowest of the season, Tagovailoa could be a sneaky value play against the Patriots.
Methodology: We seek QBs on teams expected to score more than average, with above-average pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage, according to PFF grades.
DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > -0.5 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < .5 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .5 & [Spread] < 3, and ranked by overall matchup, player performance (e.g., [ANY/A]) and value (e.g., [Cost/Op]).
To see all QB’s matching this criteria
Go to the NFL DFS Lineup Builder
Running Back (RB)
On top this week: De’Von Achane – Achane has picked up four touchdowns over the last four games, only being held scoreless in one of those outings. The young running back has also been more involved in the passing game since Tua’s return, with a Tgt%L4 of 20% Achane has turned that uptick in targets into nearly 40 receiving yards per game over that stretch.
Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RBs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 3 & [PrjFP] > 12 & [Prop1TD] < 105 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > -.5 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Wide Receiver (WR)
On top this week: Marvin Harrison Jr. – The Seattle Seahawks are ranked in the bottom half of the league in FPsFantasy points allowed to wide receivers. While Harrison has been fairly boom or this season, he does have TDs in two of his last three games while seeing at least five targets in the last four weeks. And this matchup should be a shootout.
Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD prop odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WRs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 4 & [Spread] < 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFPASSSd] > -.3 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Tight End (TE)
On top this week: Sam LaPorta – LaPorta is heating up, having had his best two fantasy performances of the season during his last three games. This week, the sophomore tight end matches up with an Indiana defense ranked 25th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. LaPorta has also seen an increase in target share recently, with a Tgt%L3 of 20%.
Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary — unless the matchup is lip-smacking. We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected opportunities. Being a home favorite and establishing a pattern of red zone looks never hurts, either. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Spread] < 4 & [PrjOps] > 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost] and > 0 [RedZnOpsL4]).
Defense and Special Teams (DST)
On top this week: Vikings – Minnesota has scored double-digit fantasy points in each of the last three weeks. The Vikings have also held opposing running backs to under 70 yards in each of those three games. Against a Chicago Bears offense that has been held under 20 points for four straight games, the Vikings should have ample opportunity to provide DFS players with value.
Methodology: We want a cost-effective, better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.
DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 23 & [Sal($k)]A DFS Hub field that equals a player's salary divided by $1,000. $4.8 [Sal($k)] equals $4,800, for example. It's a short form of salary to make comparing salaries easier. <4 & [SpreadA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus point spread for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much the favorite will win by, and how much the underdog will lose by. A Spread of -7, for example, means the favorite is expected to win by 7 points. For more, see:
... < 2.5] & [PFFOppOFFSd] < .5, and ranked by overall match-up (e.g., [PFFOppPBLKSd]) and team pressuresA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... (e.g., [QBHits%L4]).
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