Week 4 looks like a thriller. Among the marquee matchups:
Aaron Rodgers is favored by over a touchdown at home against the Denver Broncos.
Sam Darnold’s Minnesota Vikings visit the Green Bay Packers in a divisional clash.
After dissecting all the matchups, DFS Hub presents the Week 4 DFS cheat sheet below. Its mission: spotlighting top picks and showcasing the site’s player filters, using our standard weekly criteria by position.
So, without further ado, here’s a peek at the Hub’s DraftKings main slateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... More VIP list—plus the lowdown on why these players are the crème de la crème.
Quick Tip
If you don’t know what the fields below mean,
hit up the NFL DFS Field Glossary.
Quarterback (QB)
On top this week: Kyler Murray: Murray matches up with an absolutely dreadful Washington D that ranks dead last in the NFL in fantasy allowed to QBs. The Commanders have a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. More of 27.9 FPsFantasy points More which certainly bodes well for Murray, who has also contributed an average of over 50 yards per game this season on the ground.
Methodology: We seek QBs on teams that’ll score more than average, with good pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage. And we sort by the highest Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt [ANY/A].
DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > 0 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < 0 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < 0 & ranked by highest [ANY/A]
To see all QB’s matching this criteria
Go to the NFL DFS Lineup Builder
Running Back (RB)
On top this week: Jordan Mason: Mason has a snap share of 81% in his three games this season with no signs of slowing down. The CMC replacement has had a solid floor this year, with 88 total yards being his season low. Against a middling New England run D (ranked 14th in the league in FPsFantasy points More allowed to running backs,) Mason should be able to maintain that floor.
Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). More odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RBs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 2.5 & [PrjFP] > 15 & [Prop1TD] < -50 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > 0 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < 0 & ranked by lowest [TDCost].
Wide Receiver (WR)
On top this week: Michael Wilson: With Trey McBride out of the lineup, Wilson could be the beneficiary of Kyler Murray’s tosses. Wilson saw 9 targets in Week 3 while putting up a season-high 14.4 fantasy points. Similar to its inability to contain QBs, the Washington D is ranked 32nd in the NFL in FPsFantasy points More allowed to wide receivers. With Marvin Harrison Jr. sure to take up much of Washington’s focus, Wilson should have opportunities to fill up the stat sheet.
Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). More odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WRs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 5 & [Spread] < 2.5 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < 0 & ranked by lowest implied TD costTD Cost is the implied cost of a touchdown based on the player's salary and TD prop line. TD Cost = Salary / Probability of a touchdown This shows what you'd have to pay for the player if you wanted a guaranteed touchdown from him, based on his probability of scoring and his curr... More [TDCost].
Tight End (TE)
On top this week: Elijah Higgins: Higgins slides in to replace Trey McBride in a game that we clearly feel will be filled with fantasy gems. With a DraftKings salary of $3,100, the price tag is friendly on Higgins as well. Higgins will only need to chip in a little more than 9 fantasy points to provide DFS players with 3.0X value. So, while TD dependant (and his TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). More line isn’t that bad at +223), Higgins has the potential for value.
Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary. We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions, with better-than-average TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). More odds and projected opportunities. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [Sal($k)]A DFS Hub field that equals a player's salary divided by $1,000. $4.8 [Sal($k)] equals $4,800, for example. It's a short form of salary to make comparing salaries easier. More <4 & [PrjOps] > 3 & ranked by lowest [TDCost].
Defense and Special Teams (DST)
On top this week: Steelers: For the third week in a row, we’re going with the black and gold. Indy QB Anthony Richardson is coming off of back to back duds with 5 interceptions across two games. The Steelers are stellar against the run, ranked 2nd in the league in fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs. So if the Colts were thinking they could lean on Jonathan Taylor instead of their quarterback, they may be in for a rude awakening.
Methodology: We want a cost-effective better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.
DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 22 & [Sal($k)]A DFS Hub field that equals a player's salary divided by $1,000. $4.8 [Sal($k)] equals $4,800, for example. It's a short form of salary to make comparing salaries easier. More <3.6 & [Spread] < 3 & ranked by highest [QBHits%L4].
Draft a lineup in this week’s free NFL DFS contest and win a DFS Hub Season Pass!
