It’s NFL season’s curtain call, and team and player motivations matter. Knowing who’s in it to win it is crucial. Keep an eye on these playoff-relevant Week 18 matchups.
- Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers:
The Packers are still playing for playoff seeding and will likely deploy their starters against a Bears defense that’s been as effective as a two-legged chair. - Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos:
With the Chiefs resting their starters, backup quarterback Carson Wentz gets a chance to remind us why he’s the NFL’s version of a box of chocolates—you never know what you’re gonna get. - Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers:
Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is set to start for the Falcons, replacing the turnover-prone Kirk Cousins. Penix’s fresh approach could invigorate Atlanta’s offense against a Panthers defense that’s been leakier than a cheap umbrella.
For more players to target, explore DFS Hub’s DraftKings main slateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... gems below. They include our methodology, which you can replicate in our NFL lineup builder.
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Quarterback (QB)
On top this week: Baker Mayfield – Thanks in part to a Week 17 effort that saw Mayfield put up 37.6 fantasy points, the veteran QB is averaging 27.7 FPsFantasy points per game across the last four weeks. Mayfield is also averaging over 300 yards per game across that span, to go along with 14 touchdowns. The Tampa Bay quarterback tossed four touchdowns and 325 yards in his last matchup with the Saints and is poised to put up big numbers again in a must-win contest.
Methodology: We seek QBs on teams expected to score more than average, with above-average pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage, according to PFF grades.
DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > -0.5 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < .5 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .5 & [Spread] < 3.5, and ranked by overall matchup, player performance (e.g., [ANY/A]) and value (e.g., [Cost/Op]).
To see all QB’s matching this criteria
Go to the NFL DFS Lineup Builder
Running Back (RB)
On top this week: Bijan Robinson – Robinson has rushed for at least 90 yards in each of his last five games while finding his way into the endzone six times. Robinson finishes the season off against a Carolina D ranked dead last in the NFL in FPs allowed to running backs. The Atlanta RB has reached double-digit fantasy points in every game this season. He’ll look to feast on a weak Carolina defense in another must-win game.
Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RBs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 3 & [PrjFP] > 12 & [Prop1TD] < 110 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > -.5 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Wide Receiver (WR)
On top this week: Mike Evans – Yes, this feels like deja vu from our Mayfield/Evans stack last week, but the analytics justify it. Evans needs at least five catches and 85 yards to not only trigger a $3 million contract incentive but to also tie Jerry Rice’s record of 11 straight seasons with 1,000 receiving yards. It shouldn’t be hard for Evans to eclipse those totals, as goes against a New Orleans defense ranked 25th in the league in fantasy points allowed to WRs. Evans has also averaged over 100 yards per game across the last three weeks, to go along with 28 targets.
Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD prop odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WRs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 4 & [Spread] < 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFPASSSd] > -.3 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Tight End (TE)
On top this week: Noah Fant – Fant has seen a Tgt%L3 of 21% while averaging six targets per game along that same timeframe. The Seattle vet faces off against an LA defense that’s ranked 26th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. With the Rams sporting a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. of 12.1 FPs, Fant could exceed 3x value in Week 18.
Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary — unless the matchup is lip-smacking. We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected opportunities. Being a home favorite and establishing a pattern of red zone looks never hurts, either. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Spread] < 4 & [PrjOps] > 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost] and > 0 [RedZnOpsL4]).
Defense and Special Teams (DST)
On top this week: Broncos – While a matchup with the 15-1 Kansas City Chiefs may seem intimidating for the Denver defense, it shouldn’t be too bad as KC will be resting starters and using Carson Wentz at QB. The Broncos are coming off of a seven-sack performance against the Bengals, and a rusty Wentz may be susceptible to that pass rush.
Methodology: We want a cost-effective, better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.
DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 23 & [Sal($k)]A DFS Hub field that equals a player's salary divided by $1,000. $4.8 [Sal($k)] equals $4,800, for example. It's a short form of salary to make comparing salaries easier. <4 & [SpreadA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus point spread for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much the favorite will win by, and how much the underdog will lose by. A Spread of -7, for example, means the favorite is expected to win by 7 points. For more, see:
... < 2.5] & [PFFOppOFFSd] < .5, and ranked by overall match-up (e.g., [PFFOppPBLKSd]) and team pressuresA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... (e.g., [QBHits%L4]).
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