As the curtain closes on the NFL’s regular season, welcome to Week 18 – the final act where playoff dreams hang in the balance, and fantasy rosters become more of a gamble than a Vegas slot machine. It’s the time of year when “big playoff implications” really means “let’s see who chokes and who becomes a legend.”

Keep a wary eye on the Chiefs, Rams, 49ers and Browns, though, as they might be giving their starters more bench time than an underwhelming second-stringer. And for those hanging their hopes on Jacksonville’s golden boy, Trevor Lawrence – he’s a “gametime decision.” In the world of fantasy, that’s about as comforting as hearing your pilot might Google “how to land” mid-flight.

Last but not least, don’t forget to factor in contract incentives, which always play a factor.

Now let’s get to this week’s big 3 games…

Scoring Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

1. Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) – O/U 47.5
   • The Cardinals have given up over 100 points throughout the last three weeks.
   • Arizona has a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. More of 40.8 FPsFantasy points More against running backs, which bodes well for Kenneth Walker III.
   • Geno Smith hasn’t scored less than 17 fantasy points in the last three weeks and faces the 25th-ranked D in fantasy points allowed to QBs.
2. Dallas Cowboys (-13.5) at Washington Commanders (+13.5) – O/U 47.0
   • CeeDee Lamb is coming off of a game with 44.2 FPsFantasy points More and has a juicy matchup with the 31st-ranked defense in fantasy points allowed to pass catchers.
   • Lamb won’t be the only Dallas receiver that could feast in Week 18 as Washington has a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. More of 51.1 fantasy points against WRs.
   • Washington has coughed up 181 rushing yards per game during their last three games.
3. Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Detroit Lions (+3.5) – O/U 45.5
   • The Lions have allowed nearly 700 passing yards during the last two weeks, 373 of which were given up to the Vikings.
   • Minnesota is allowing 30 points per game during their recent three-game losing skid.
   • Amon-Ra St. Brown has at least 100 yards and a TD in each of his last three games.

Rebound Plays:  3 stars coming off one or more dud performances, with strong matchups

1. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings, $8,500
   • Jefferson scored 29.1 FPsFantasy points More in his last outing against the Lions two weeks ago.
   • The Minnesota star has seen exactly 10 targets in each of his last three games.
   • Detroit is ranked 29th in the league in FPsFantasy points More given up to WRs.
2. A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles, $8,700
   • With just 5 targets, Brown is coming off his second-lowest target total of the year, but the Eagles plan to rectify that in Week 18.
   • Even with his low target total in Week 17, Brown still has a Tgt%L4 of 31%.
   • Brown managed 80 yards on 11 targets in his last matchup with the Giants, who are ranked 28th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed receivers.
3. Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $7,600
   • Before Week 17, White had a TD in four straight games.
   • The Panthers are second to last in the league in FPsFantasy points More given up to RBs.
   • Even after a Week 17 dud, White is still averaging nearly 20 fantasy points per game in his last four.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

1. Tony Pollard, RB, DAL, $6,500
   • 2nd best TDCostTD Cost is the implied cost of a touchdown based on the player's salary and the player's TD prop line. This field shows what you'd have to pay for the player (in salary) if you wanted a guaranteed touchdown from him, based on his probability of scoring and his current salary. Low... More; -162 TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). More line; faces porous WAS run D; DAL is heavy favorite.
2. Josh Reynolds, WR, DET, $3,300
   • 2nd best WR TDCostTD Cost is the implied cost of a touchdown based on the player's salary and the player's TD prop line. This field shows what you'd have to pay for the player (in salary) if you wanted a guaranteed touchdown from him, based on his probability of scoring and his current salary. Low... More; huge contract incentives for a TD and 36+ yards; faces weaker than average WR pass coverage in Minny.
3. Jamaal Williams, RB, NO, $5,200
   • Low TDCostTD Cost is the implied cost of a touchdown based on the player's salary and the player's TD prop line. This field shows what you'd have to pay for the player (in salary) if you wanted a guaranteed touchdown from him, based on his probability of scoring and his current salary. Low... More at $11.60; high opportunity potential with RB Kamara out; must-win game for the Saints

Draft a lineup in this week’s free NFL DFS contest for prizes!