As the curtain closes on the NFL’s regular season, welcome to Week 18 – the final act where playoff dreams hang in the balance, and fantasy rosters become more of a gamble than a Vegas slot machine. It’s the time of year when “big playoff implications” really means “let’s see who chokes and who becomes a legend.”
Keep a wary eye on the Chiefs, Rams, 49ers and Browns, though, as they might be giving their starters more bench time than an underwhelming second-stringer. And for those hanging their hopes on Jacksonville’s golden boy, Trevor Lawrence – he’s a “gametime decision.” In the world of fantasy, that’s about as comforting as hearing your pilot might Google “how to land” mid-flight.
Last but not least, don’t forget to factor in contract incentives, which always play a factor.
Now let’s get to this week’s big 3 games…
Scoring Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals
- Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) – O/U 47.5
- The Cardinals have given up over 100 points throughout the last three weeks.
- Arizona has a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. of 40.8 FPsFantasy points against running backs, which bodes well for Kenneth Walker III.
- Geno Smith hasn’t scored less than 17 fantasy points in the last three weeks and faces the 25th-ranked D in fantasy points allowed to QBs.
- Dallas Cowboys (-13.5) at Washington Commanders (+13.5) – O/U 47.0
- CeeDee Lamb is coming off of a game with 44.2 FPs and has a juicy matchup with the 31st-ranked defense in fantasy points allowed to pass catchers.
- Lamb won’t be the only Dallas receiver that could feast in Week 18 as Washington has a DvPL4 of 51.1 fantasy points against WRs.
- Washington has coughed up 181 rushing yards per game during their last three games.
- Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Detroit Lions (+3.5) – O/U 45.5
- The Lions have allowed nearly 700 passing yards during the last two weeks, 373 of which were given up to the Vikings.
- Minnesota is allowing 30 points per game during their recent three-game losing skid.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has at least 100 yards and a TD in each of his last three games.
Rebound Plays: 3 stars coming off one or more dud performances, with strong matchups
- Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings, $8,500
- Jefferson scored 29.1 FPs in his last outing against the Lions two weeks ago.
- The Minnesota star has seen exactly 10 targets in each of his last three games.
- Detroit is ranked 29th in the league in FPs given up to WRs.
- A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles, $8,700
- With just 5 targets, Brown is coming off his second-lowest target total of the year, but the Eagles plan to rectify that in Week 18.
- Even with his low target total in Week 17, Brown still has a Tgt%L4 of 31%.
- Brown managed 80 yards on 11 targets in his last matchup with the Giants, who are ranked 28th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed receivers.
- Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $7,600
- Before Week 17, White had a TD in four straight games.
- The Panthers are second to last in the league in FPs given up to RBs.
- Even after a Week 17 dud, White is still averaging nearly 20 fantasy points per game in his last four.
Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios
- Tony Pollard, RB, DAL, $6,500
- 2nd best TDCostTD Cost is the implied cost of a touchdown based on the player's salary and the player's TD prop line. This field shows what you'd have to pay for the player (in salary) if you wanted a guaranteed touchdown from him, based on his probability of scoring and his current salary. Low...; -162 TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). line; faces porous WAS run D; DAL is heavy favorite.
- Josh Reynolds, WR, DET, $3,300
- 2nd best WR TDCost; huge contract incentives for a TD and 36+ yards; faces weaker than average WR pass coverage in Minny.
- Jamaal Williams, RB, NO, $5,200
- Low TDCost at $11.60; high opportunity potential with RB Kamara out; must-win game for the Saints
Draft a lineup in this week’s free NFL DFS contest for prizes!
