It’s the NFL’s Week 16 and we’re diving into three matchups poised to light up the scoreboard and your DFS lineups:
- Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets:
Rams’ running back Kyren Williams could feast on a Jets defense missing key pieces up front. With over 1,100 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns this season, Williams should have little trouble adding to his totals against a middling run defense. - Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles:
Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been turning heads, and with the Commanders’ depleted skill positions, he’ll shoulder even more of the offensive load. Facing a tough Eagles defense, Daniels’ dual-threat ability still gives him upside, particularly as an under-the-radar play for those looking to zig while others zag. - Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears:
Lions’ running back Jahmyr Gibbs is primed for a standout performance against the Bears’ defense, which has been generous to opposing running backs. Gibbs’ explosive playmaking is now well-documented, and the Lions need this game to maintain their #1 seed.
For more players to target, explore DFS Hub’s DraftKings main slateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... gems below. They include our methodology, which you can replicate in our NFL lineup builder.
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Quarterback (QB)
On top this week: Jared Goff – The veteran QB threw for nearly 500 yards in Week 14 while putting up 44.1 fantasy points. While the Bears do sport a stingy defense ranked 1st in the NFL in FPsFantasy points allowed to QBs, they have been more beatable as of late with a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. of 20.5 fantasy points against Goff’s position. With one of Detroit’s lead running backs missing time, the Lions may want to throw the ball even more in this matchup.
Methodology: We seek QBs on teams expected to score more than average, with above-average pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage, according to PFF grades.
DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > -0.5 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < .5 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .5 & [Spread] < 3.5, and ranked by overall matchup, player performance (e.g., [ANY/A]) and value (e.g., [Cost/Op]).
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Running Back (RB)
On top this week: Jahmyr Gibbs – Gibbs is the lead back in Detroit now and will have plenty of chances to do some damage against a Chicago defense ranked 29th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to running backs. The sophomore running has been a model of consistency this year, with double-digit FPs in every single game. With 13 targets in his last two games, Gibbs should be heavily involved in the passing game as well.
Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RBs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 3 & [PrjFP] > 12 & [Prop1TD] < 110 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > -.5 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Wide Receiver (WR)
On top this week: Justin Jefferson – Jefferson has dropped over 55 fantasy points combined in the last two weeks and will have a solid matchup with a Seattle defense ranked in the bottom half of fantasy points allowed to pass catchers. Those 55 fantasy points included over 200 yards and 20 targets, with no reason to believe those opportunities will slow down in this potential shootout.
Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD prop odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WRs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 4 & [Spread] < 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFPASSSd] > -.3 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Tight End (TE)
On top this week: Brock Bowers – Bowers gets an upgrade in quarterback this week with Aiden O’Connell returning to the lineup. After a disappointing couple of weeks, Bowers should rebound against a Jacksonville D ranked 26th in the league in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary — unless the matchup is lip-smacking. We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected opportunities. Being a home favorite and establishing a pattern of red zone looks never hurts, either. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Spread] < 4 & [PrjOps] > 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost] and > 0 [RedZnOpsL4]).
Defense and Special Teams (DST)
On top this week: Colts – The Colts have forced three turnovers in back-to-back games and could grab some more against one of the NFL’s worst offenses. The opposing Titans have been held under 21 points in eight of their last ten games.
Methodology: We want a cost-effective, better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.
DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 23 & [Sal($k)]A DFS Hub field that equals a player's salary divided by $1,000. $4.8 [Sal($k)] equals $4,800, for example. It's a short form of salary to make comparing salaries easier. <4 & [SpreadA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus point spread for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much the favorite will win by, and how much the underdog will lose by. A Spread of -7, for example, means the favorite is expected to win by 7 points. For more, see:
... < 2.5] & [PFFOppOFFSd] < .5, and ranked by overall match-up (e.g., [PFFOppPBLKSd]) and team pressuresA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... (e.g., [QBHits%L4]).
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