It’s week 14 already—the last week of the 2024 NFL regular season for most season-long leagues and time to separate the fantasy contenders from the pretenders. With six teams on bye, your lineup might look like a scene from a disaster movie. But fear not. Here are three matchups poised to light up the fantasy scoreboard:
- Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Baker Mayfield and the Bucs’ offense are set to exploit the Raiders’ defense, which has been as sturdy as a wet paper bag. Expect Mayfield and wide receiver Mike Evans to post another week of impressive numbers. - Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers:
Patrick Mahomes facing the Chargers’ defense is like a hot knife through butter. With the Chiefs’ offense clicking, Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce could be poised for big fantasy days. - New Orleans Saints at New York Giants:
Alvin Kamara is back to his dual-threat ways, and facing the Giants’ defense is like playing Madden on rookie mode. Expect Kamara to rack up points faster than you can say “Who Dat.”
Remember, in DFS, especially GPPs, fortune favors the bold. For more players to target, dive into DFS Hub’s DraftKings main slateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... gems below. They come complete with our methodology, which you can replicate in our NFL lineup builder.
Quick Tip
If you don’t know what the fields below mean,
hit up the NFL DFS Field Glossary.
Quarterback (QB)
On top this week: Tua Tagovailoa: The New York Jets are on a three game losing streak and will be without some big names on their defense. Tagovailoa meanwhile has nine TDs and no interceptions in Miami’s last three games. The Miami QB has also averaged over 300 yards passing per game since Week 11, with a solid floor of 288. Against a NYJ D with a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. of 20.6 fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, Tua should have ample opportunity to put up numbers at home.
Methodology: We seek QBs on teams expected to score more than average, with above-average pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage, according to PFF grades.
DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > -0.5 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < .5 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .5 & [Spread] < 3.5, and ranked by overall matchup, player performance (e.g., [ANY/A]) and value (e.g., [Cost/Op]).
To see all QB’s matching this criteria
Go to the NFL DFS Lineup Builder
Running Back (RB)
On top this week: Saquon Barkley: Even with a massive DraftKings salary of $9,000, it’s hard to pass up on starting Barkley in Week 14. The Philly RB faces off against a Carolina defense ranked dead last in the NFL in FPsFantasy points allowed to running backs. Barkley meanwhile, has five touchdowns in his last three games to go along with a floor of 22.7 FPs. With an average of nearly 30 fantasy points per game since Week 11, it’s hard to keep Barkley out of any lineup.
Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RBs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 3 & [PrjFP] > 12 & [Prop1TD] < 110 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > -.5 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Wide Receiver (WR)
On top this week: Jordan Addison: Addison has averaged seven targets per game across the last four weeks, good for a Tgt% of 25%. Atlanta is ranked 27th in the NFL in FPs allowed to pass catchers while Addison has over 200 receiving yards combined since Week 12. Plus, Atlanta is weakest at covering the right side of the field, where Addison usually lives.
Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD prop odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WRs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 4 & [Spread] < 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFPASSSd] > -.3 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Tight End (TE)
On top this week: Pat Freiermuth: The Steelers tight end has picked up at least 59 receiving yards in back to back games while also grabbing his fourth TD of the year in Week 13. Freiermuth has seen a Tgt%L3 of 14% and has been more involved in the passing game as of late. He faces a Browns team that’s had trouble covering ends as of late.
Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary — unless the matchup is lip-smacking. We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected opportunities. Being a home favorite and establishing a pattern of red zone looks never hurts, either. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Spread] < 4 & [PrjOps] > 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost] and > 0 [RedZnOpsL4]).
Defense and Special Teams (DST)
On top this week: Tennessee Titans: With Trevor Lawrence out, Mac Jones is in at quarterback for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Titans have a decent passing D and Jones has thrown three interceptions in his last three games. Tennessee has forced four turnovers in the last two games, meaning this could be a long day for Jones and the Jaguars.
Methodology: We want a cost-effective, better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.
DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 23 & [Sal($k)]A DFS Hub field that equals a player's salary divided by $1,000. $4.8 [Sal($k)] equals $4,800, for example. It's a short form of salary to make comparing salaries easier. <4 & [SpreadA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus point spread for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much the favorite will win by, and how much the underdog will lose by. A Spread of -7, for example, means the favorite is expected to win by 7 points. For more, see:
... < 2.5] & [PFFOppOFFSd] < .5, and ranked by overall match-up (e.g., [PFFOppPBLKSd]) and team pressuresA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... (e.g., [QBHits%L4]).
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