Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season is upon us. Here are three games that promise to light up the fantasy scoreboard:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers:
Bucky Irving has been feasting on opponents the past two weeks, and facing the Panthers’ run defense is like sending a wolf to a petting zoo. Carolina allows 387 total yards per game (season-long and last three weeks), ranking third-worst in the league. - Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars:
Joe Mixon is thriving in Houston, and against the Jaguars’ defense, he might just dance his way into the end zone like it’s prom night. Keep an eye on Nico Collins, too. The Jags have allowed the highest drop-back success rate in the league in the past 4 weeks. Trevor Lawrence’s return could make this a somewhat more competitive game. - Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens:
This clash has “Game of the Year” potential, with both teams boasting explosively mobile QBs and offences that rarely take coffee breaks. The 51 over/under doesn’t lie.
For more players to target, dive into DFS Hub’s DraftKings main slateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... gems below. They come complete with our methodology, which you can replicate in our NFL lineup builder.
Quick Tip
If you don’t know what the fields below mean,
hit up the NFL DFS Field Glossary.
Quarterback (QB)
On top this week: Jalen Hurts: Hurts matches up with a Baltimore D ranked 27th in the league in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Prior to Week 11, the Philly quarterback had five straight games with at least 21 FPsFantasy points. In no game this season has Hurts had less than 15 FPs, giving the Eagles QB a safe floor.
Methodology: We seek QBs on teams expected to score more than average, with above-average pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage, according to PFF grades.
DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > -0.5 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < .5 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .5 & [Spread] < 3.5, and ranked by overall matchup, player performance (e.g., [ANY/A]) and value (e.g., [Cost/Op]).
To see all QB’s matching this criteria
Go to the NFL DFS Lineup Builder
Running Back (RB)
On top this week: Kyren Williams: The Rams running back has seen his salary decrease from $8,200 in Week 8 to just $7,200 this week. With a matchup against a New Orleans D ranked 29th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to RBs, this could be the week to get Williams at a good value. While Williams hasn’t been as productive as he was at the start of the season, he still only has one game on the year with less than double digit fantasy points.
Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RBs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 3 & [PrjFP] > 12 & [Prop1TD] < 110 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > -.5 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Wide Receiver (WR)
On top this week: Mike Evans: Evans was able to snag five of his six targets in his first game since Week 7. The Panthers have a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. of 29.9 fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, and with Chris Godwin out of the lineup, Evans should see plenty of looks. Evans has also found the end zone four times in his last five games, giving him plenty of opportunity to rack up fantasy points.
Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD prop odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WRs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 4 & [Spread] < 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFPASSSd] > -.3 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Tight End (TE)
On top this week: Cade Otton: With Carolina ranked dead last in the league in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, Otton will be eager to take the field for this game. In Otton’s last matchup versus an opposing D ranked in the bottom three of the NFL, Otton picked up 21.7 fantasy points. With back-to-back poor outings lowering Otton’s salary, Week 13 is a prime opportunity for DFS players to gain some big value out of the Buccs tight end.
Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary — unless the matchup is lip-smacking. We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected opportunities. Being a home favorite and establishing a pattern of red zone looks never hurts, either. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Spread] < 4 & [PrjOps] > 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost] and > 0 [RedZnOpsL4]).
Defense and Special Teams (DST)
On top this week: Colts: The Indianapolis pass rush is materially better than average the last four weeks, while the Patriots’ pass blocking has big gaps. Their opposing QB, Drake Maye, has thrown five interceptions in his last four games, which should give the Colts plenty of chances to generate turnovers and generate fantasy points.
Methodology: We want a cost-effective, better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.
DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 23 & [Sal($k)]A DFS Hub field that equals a player's salary divided by $1,000. $4.8 [Sal($k)] equals $4,800, for example. It's a short form of salary to make comparing salaries easier. <4 & [SpreadA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus point spread for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much the favorite will win by, and how much the underdog will lose by. A Spread of -7, for example, means the favorite is expected to win by 7 points. For more, see:
... < 2.5] & [PFFOppOFFSd] < .5, and ranked by overall match-up (e.g., [PFFOppPBLKSd]) and team pressuresA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... (e.g., [QBHits%L4]).
Draft a lineup in this week’s free NFL DFS contest and win a DFS Hub Season Pass!
