The penultimate Sunday of the NFL season is here. On tap are two high-drama showdowns with ample star power. Let’s kick off Championship Sunday NFL DFS preview by digging into these two matchups.
2 Games That Should Generate Fat Fantasy Totals
- Detroit Lions (+7.0) at San Francisco 49ers (-7.0) – O/U 51.0
- The Lions have yielded nearly 340 yards per game through the air over the last four weeks.
- Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel could be the main beneficiaries of a Detroit D ranked 30th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
- Jared Goff will have his chances, too, as the 49ers have allowed a 19.3 DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. (median FPsFantasy points to QBs in the last four games)
- Goff has kept the ball away from opposing defenses, with no interceptions in the last three weeks.
- Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) – O/U 44.5
- Isiah Pacheco has a chance to get things going on the ground as the Ravens have a DvPL4 of 33.0 fantasy points allowed to running backs.
- Before shutting down Houston in the Divisional Round, the Ravens gave up over 120 yards on the ground in each of their previous three games.
- Lamar Jackson has an incredible 9 TDs in his last two games and back-to-back outings of 39 FPs.
Rebound Plays: 3 stars coming off one or more dud performances, with strong matchups
- Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers, $6,900
- Aiyuk had just 32 yards in the Divisional Round, but now matches up with the Lions and their abysmal DvPL4 of 61.0 FPs allowed to WRs.
- The Lions were the best team in the NFL against running backs this season, so the Niners may be more inclined to throw the ball in this one.
- With Deebo on the mend, Aiyuk should be the focal point of the passing game.
- Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs, $5,700
- Following two straight games of over 125 yards, Rice was quiet last week against Buffalo.
- Despite seeing just 4 targets versus the Bills, Rice still has a Tgt%L4 of 24%.
- Baltimore have kept tight ends to a median of 9.8 FPs over the last four games, so KC may have to look to their wide receiver to attack the Ravens through the air.
- Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers, $6,400
- Purdy hasn’t put up more than 18 fantasy points in a game since Week 15 but faces a Detroit D ranked 30th in FPs allowed to quarterbacks.
- The Lions have a DvPL4 25.7 FPs given up to QBs, which is Purdy’s best matchup of the season.
- Purdy hasn’t thrown a pick in the last three of the last four weeks.
Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios
- George Kittle, TE, SF, $5,300
- 2nd lowest TDCostTD Cost is the implied cost of a touchdown based on the player's salary and the player's TD prop line. This field shows what you'd have to pay for the player (in salary) if you wanted a guaranteed touchdown from him, based on his probability of scoring and his current salary. Low... with a -118 TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). line; Detroit’s D was ranked 25th against tight ends this year
- Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF, $6,900
- Lowest TDCost of any receiver; +103 TD prop line; faces DET secondary that is 1.2 standard deviations below average
- Sam LaPorta, TE, DET, $5,400
- Reasonable TDCost with a +161 TD prop line; now healthy, he’s fairly matchup-proof and remains an integral part of the Lion’s offense.
Draft a lineup in this week’s free NFL DFS contest for prizes!
