Championship Sunday NFL DFS Cheat Sheet – 2023

The penultimate Sunday of the NFL season is here. On tap are two high-drama showdowns with ample star power. Let’s kick off Championship Sunday NFL DFS preview by digging into these two matchups.

2 Games That Should Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

  1. Detroit Lions (+7.0) at San Francisco 49ers (-7.0) – O/U 51.0
    • The Lions have yielded nearly 340 yards per game through the air over the last four weeks.
    • Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel could be the main beneficiaries of a Detroit D ranked 30th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
    • Jared Goff will have his chances, too, as the 49ers have allowed a 19.3 DvPL4 (median FPs to QBs in the last four games)
    • Goff has kept the ball away from opposing defenses, with no interceptions in the last three weeks.
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) – O/U 44.5
    • Isiah Pacheco has a chance to get things going on the ground as the Ravens have a DvPL4 of 33.0 fantasy points allowed to running backs.
    • Before shutting down Houston in the Divisional Round, the Ravens gave up over 120 yards on the ground in each of their previous three games.
    • Lamar Jackson has an incredible 9 TDs in his last two games and back-to-back outings of 39 FPs.


(Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)

Rebound Plays:  3 stars coming off one or more dud performances, with strong matchups

  1. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers, $6,900
    • Aiyuk had just 32 yards in the Divisional Round, but now matches up with the Lions and their abysmal DvPL4 of 61.0 FPs allowed to WRs.
    • The Lions were the best team in the NFL against running backs this season, so the Niners may be more inclined to throw the ball in this one.
    • With Deebo on the mend, Aiyuk should be the focal point of the passing game.
  2. Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs, $5,700
    • Following two straight games of over 125 yards, Rice was quiet last week against Buffalo.
    • Despite seeing just 4 targets versus the Bills, Rice still has a Tgt%L4 of 24%.
    • Baltimore have kept tight ends to a median of 9.8 FPs over the last four games, so KC may have to look to their wide receiver to attack the Ravens through the air.
  3. Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers, $6,400
    • Purdy hasn’t put up more than 18 fantasy points in a game since Week 15 but faces a Detroit D ranked 30th in FPs allowed to quarterbacks.
    • The Lions have a DvPL4 25.7 FPs given up to QBs, which is Purdy’s best matchup of the season.
    • Purdy hasn’t thrown a pick in the last three of the last four weeks.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

  1. George Kittle, TE, SF, $5,300
    • 2nd lowest TDCost with a -118 TD prop line; Detroit’s D was ranked 25th against tight ends this year
  2. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF, $6,900
    • Lowest TDCost of any receiver; +103 TD prop line; faces DET secondary that is 1.2 standard deviations below average
  3. Sam LaPorta, TE, DET, $5,400
    • Reasonable TDCost with a +161 TD prop line; now healthy, he’s fairly matchup-proof and remains an integral part of the Lion’s offense.

Draft a lineup in this week’s free NFL DFS contest for prizes!

Leave a Reply

This site uses User Verification plugin to reduce spam. See how your comment data is processed.