It’s halfway through the season and NFL-DFS-land is sizzling with value for Week 9:
- Quarterback Shuffles: For those who don’t buy into the ‘get what you pay for’ adage, the Raiders and Panthers are serving up some fire sale QBs in Gardner Minshew ($4.5k) and Bryce Young ($4.4k).
- Tight End Star in High-Scoring Affair: Sam LaPorta ($4.8k) of the Lions is eyeing a stellar show against the Packers, who can’t seem to keep tight ends in check.
- Wide Receiver Matchup Goldmine: CeeDee Lamb is the most expensive WR on the slateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam..., probably because he’s set to feast on the Falcons’ defense. Atlanta allows the third most opponent-adjusted Fantasy Points to the WR1 position.
Dive into our methodology below for more DraftKings main slate gems.
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Quarterback (QB)
On top this week: Josh Allen: The MVP favorite has had a floor of 20.8 fantasy points the last three weeks while picking up seven touchdowns and throwing just one interception. Miami has been strong against QBs this season, ranking first in the NFL in FPsFantasy points allowed to the position, but the addition of Amari Cooper (wrist) should continue to be a boon for Allen.
Methodology: We seek QBs on teams expected to score more than average, with above-average pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage, according to PFF grades.
DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > -0.5 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < .5 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .3 & [Spread] < 3, and ranked by overall matchup, player performance (e.g., [ANY/A]) and value (e.g., [Cost/Op]).
To see all QB’s matching this criteria
Go to the NFL DFS Lineup Builder
Running Back (RB)
On top this week: Bijan Robinson: The Atlanta running back has found the endzone in each of his last three games, putting up at least 23.6 fantasy points in every contest. This week Robinson will face a Dallas D ranked 31st in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Robinson has also been more involved in the passing game as of late, with over 40 yards recieving in each of the last two weeks.
Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RBs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 3 & [PrjFP] > 13 & [Prop1TD] < -100 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > -.5 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Wide Receiver (WR)
On top this week: Drake London: The Cowboys have a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. of 38.4 fantasy points against wide receivers. London has gotten plenty of looks lately, with 37 targets in the last four weeks. With the emergence of Kyle Pitts further opening up the passing game and a spreadA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus point spread for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much the favorite will win by, and how much the underdog will lose by. A Spread of -7, for example, means the favorite is expected to win by 7 points. For more, see:
... of 52.0 points, London should have ample opportunity to prey on the Dallas defense.
Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD prop odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WRs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 4 & [Spread] < 3 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFPASSSd] > -.3 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Tight End (TE)
On top this week: Sam LaPorta: While LaPorta has had a bit of a rough go of things this season, he has picked it up lately with touchdowns in two of his last three games. LaPorta also matches up with a Green Bay D ranked 23rd in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. LaPorta grabbed all six of his targets in Week 8 and will look to build upon that strong performance against a vulnerable Packers defense.
Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary — unless the matchup is lip-smacking. We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected opportunities. Home favorites and some red zone looks don’t hurt either. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Spread] < 3 & [PrjOps] > 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost] and > 0 [RedZnOpsL4]).
Defense and Special Teams (DST)
On top this week: Titans: The Titans have managed to hold their opponents to less than 100 passing yards in two of their last four games. Against a New England offense ranked in the bottom third of the NFL in putting up fantasy points against opposing defenses, Tennessee could prove to be a good value defense.
Methodology: We want a cost-effective better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.
DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 23 & [Sal($k)]A DFS Hub field that equals a player's salary divided by $1,000. $4.8 [Sal($k)] equals $4,800, for example. It's a short form of salary to make comparing salaries easier. <4 & [Spread < 2.5] & [PFFOppOFFSd] < .4, and ranked by overall match-up (e.g., [PFFOppPBLKSd]) and team pressuresA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... (e.g., [QBHits%L4]).
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