Here’s DFS Hub’s Week 8 look at what’s cooking in NFL fantasyland:
- Bo Nix Runs: The Broncos’ QB is like a Swiss Army knife against a Panthers defense that’s as tough as wet tissue paper, allowing the fifth-most DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points to QBs.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s Comeback: He’s back. After a Week 2 concussion, Tua might make Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle look like they were shot out of a cannon against the Cardinals’ flimsy pass defense.
- Jalen McMillan’s New Spotlight: With Godwin out for good and Evans benched until Week 12, McMillan’s the main man in Tampa Bay.
- 49ers vs. Cowboys DFS Bonanza: This game is basically DFS Christmas, especially for those eyeing 49ers’ offensive players. Grab your presents early in this one.
Read on for more player gems from DraftKings’ main slateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam..., and a peek into our methodology.
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Quarterback (QB)
On top this week: Caleb Williams: The Chicago rookie has a solid Cost/Op this week, the best of our QB shortlist. With Williams projected to have many opportunities against a middling Washington D, the Bears QB could provide DFS players with ample value in Week 8. Williams has been hot lately, with over 23.0 fantasy points in three of his last four games, while picking up nine touchdowns across that stretch.
Methodology: We seek QBs on teams expected to score more than average, with above-average pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage, according to PFF grades.
DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > -0.5 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < .5 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .3 & [Spread] < 3, and ranked by overall matchup, player performance (e.g., [ANY/A]) and value (e.g., [Cost/Op]).
To see all QB’s matching this criteria
Go to the NFL DFS Lineup Builder
Running Back (RB)
On top this week: Javonte Williams: Carolina has a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. of 37.8 FPsFantasy points, and Williams just scored his first two touchdowns of the season in Week 7. Williams has also surpassed 100 all-purpose yards in two of his last three games, and a matchup with the league’s worst defense in points allowed to RBs could be a recipe for more. With a Tgt%L3 of 18%, Williams will have ample opportunity to rack up points.
Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RBs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 2.5 & [PrjFP] > 13 & [Prop1TD] < -100 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > -.5 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Wide Receiver (WR)
On top this week: Tim Patrick: With Jameson Williams out of the lineup, Tim Patrick moves up the depth chart of an electric Lions offense. Patrick has the lowest TDCostTD Cost is the implied cost of a touchdown based on the player's salary and the player's TD prop line. This field shows what you'd have to pay for the player (in salary) if you wanted a guaranteed touchdown from him, based on his probability of scoring and his current salary. Low... of our WR shortlist, and with a salary of just $3,500, a touchdown would quickly provide DFS players with some sneaky value. With Sam LaPorta struggling to get things going this season, Patrick may step up for Detroit’s in Week 8.
Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD prop odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WRs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 4 & [Spread] < 3 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFPASSSd] > -.3 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .5 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Tight End (TE)
On top this week: Tucker Kraft: With four TDs in the last four weeks, Kraft sees the ball often in the red zone. The Green Bay pass catcher matches up with a Jacksonville D ranked 28th in the league in FPs allowed to tight ends. With a DvPL4 of nearly 20, Kraft could put points on the board.
Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary — unless the matchup is lip-smacking. We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected opportunities. Home favorites and some red zone looks don’t hurt either. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Spread] < 3 & [PrjOps] > 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost] and > 0 [RedZnOpsL4]).
Defense and Special Teams (DST)
On top this week: Denver Broncos: The Panthers will be without Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen. The struggling Bryce Young will be slotting back in at quarterback. If things weren’t bleak enough for Carolina’s offense, they’re facing a Denver D with at least 11 fantasy points in three of the last four weeks.
Methodology: We want a cost-effective better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.
DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 23 & [Sal($k)]A DFS Hub field that equals a player's salary divided by $1,000. $4.8 [Sal($k)] equals $4,800, for example. It's a short form of salary to make comparing salaries easier. <4 & [SpreadA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus point spread for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much the favorite will win by, and how much the underdog will lose by. A Spread of -7, for example, means the favorite is expected to win by 7 points. For more, see:
... < 2.5] & [PFFOppOFFSd] < .4, and ranked by overall match-up (e.g., [PFFOppPBLKSd]) and team pressuresA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... (e.g., [QBHits%L4]).
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