Week 7’s NFL menu is hotter than a jalapeño-eating contest in hell.
- First, the Detroit Lions (4-1) are prowling into Viking territory (5-0) for a cage match to crown the NFC North leader.
- Next, we have a Super Bowl LVIII encore as the Chiefs battle the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium.
- On an individual player note, all eyes are on the Browns’ Nick Chubb. His return from a stomach-turning knee injury could be the lifeline the Browns’ offense needs.
Storylines aside, we’ve crunched more numbers than a calculus textbook to sniff out Week 7’s gems. Use these ideas to sprinkle potential magic on your DraftKings’ main slateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... lineup.
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Quarterback (QB)
On top this week: Jared Goff: Goff has thrown for over 290 yards in each of his last two games to go along with five TDs and no interceptions. The Lions QB is averaging over 21 fantasy points per game and should not be too highly impacted by Minnesota’s D, which ranks 9th overall in FPsFantasy points allowed to QBs. It was just two weeks ago that Goff torched the 3rd ranked Seattle D for 27.2 fantasy points, showing that no matchup is too tough for the veteran quarterback.
Methodology: We seek QBs on teams expected to score more than average, with above-average pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage, according to PFF grades.
DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > -0.3 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < .3 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .3 & ranked by overall matchup, player performance (e.g., [ANY/A]) and value (e.g., [Cost/Op]).
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Go to the NFL DFS Lineup Builder
Running Back (RB)
On top this week: Bijan Robinson: The young Atlanta RB finally showed his first round potential last week as he picked up over 100 yards and two touchdowns. Robinson should be able to keep the good times rolling as he matches up with the Seahawks, who have a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. of 28.9 fantasy points. If the Falcons can improve upon his Tgt%L3 of 11%, Robinson should be able to take his game to the next level.
Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RBs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 2.5 & [PrjFP] > 14 & [Prop1TD] < -50 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > -.3 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < .3 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Wide Receiver (WR)
On top this week: Noah Brown: Brown has had a floor of three receptions in each game he’s played this season. After a team-high eight targets in Week 6, Brown could be poised to put up points against a bad Carolina defense. The Panthers own a DvPL4 of 39.6 FPs against wide receivers and with the continued emergence of Jadyen Daniels, the low-priced Brown ($4,000) will have the chance to provide good value.
Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD prop odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WRs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 4 & [Spread] < 3 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFPASSSd] > -.3 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < .3 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
Tight End (TE)
On top this week: George Kittle: The Niners are favorites this weekend as they play host to KC and Kittle will have every chance to shine against a Chiefs D ranked 31st in the NFL in FPs allowed to tight ends. Kittle has seen a median of 2.0 Red Zone Opportunities in the last four weeks and has scored at least one touchdown in each of those games. With a Tgt%L4 of 22%, the veteran TE will have plenty of chances to put up numbers against a vulnerable Kansas City defense.
Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary — unless the matchup is lip-smacking. We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected opportunities. Home favorites and some red zone looks don’t hurt either. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.
DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Spread] < 2 & [PrjOps] > 4 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost] and > 0 [RedZnOpsL4]).
Defense and Special Teams (DST)
On top this week: Eagles: The Birds have given up less than 150 yards through the air in two of their last three games. Against a Giants offense ranked just 26th in the NFL in FPs put up against opposing defenses, the Eagles will look to terrorize a turnover prone Daniel Jones. The Giants QB has also managed just two touchdowns in the last three weeks and with star wide receiver Malik Nabers nursing some injuries, this could prove to be a money matchup for the Philly D.
Methodology: We want a cost-effective better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.
DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 23 & [Sal($k)]A DFS Hub field that equals a player's salary divided by $1,000. $4.8 [Sal($k)] equals $4,800, for example. It's a short form of salary to make comparing salaries easier. <4 & [SpreadA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus point spread for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much the favorite will win by, and how much the underdog will lose by. A Spread of -7, for example, means the favorite is expected to win by 7 points. For more, see:
... < 2.5] & ranked by overall match-up (e.g., [PFFOppPBLKSd]) and team pressuresA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... (e.g., [QBHits%L4]).
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