Over-Under

A wager, or prediction, on whether the outcome of an event will be higher or lower than the number established by an oddsmaker.

In the NFL, over-unders most commonly refer to the total combined points that two teams will score in a game.

An over-under of 52 means that linesmakers are predicting both teams will score 52 points combined. Bettors then wager on whether that number will be higher or lower. The respective DFS Hub field for this prediction is called [OverUnder].

In DFS, over-unders matter to those looking for high scoring. High scoring improves the chances that players in that game will accumulate more fantasy points.

Over-unders can be combined with the point spread to determine how many points the linesmaker expects each team to score. This is called the “implied team total.”

Here is the formula for it:

Expected team points = (Over-under / 2) – (Pointspread / 2)

Here’s a simple example. Suppose the over-under on the Green Bay / New England game is 50 and the Green Bay Packers are favored by 7 points.

Green Bay would therefore be expected to score:

(50 / 2) – (-7 / 2) = 28.5

New England would be expected to score:

(50 / 2) – (+7 / 2) = 21.5

Why do these numbers matter? Let us count the ways.

Quarterbacks, for example, tend to rack up more fantasy points when they’re on a team with a high implied total, particularly if their team is favored.

Conversely, fantasy defenses (DSTs) tend to perform better when the opponent is an underdog and its implied total is low.

Unfortunately, there’s no free lunch. Players in games with high over-unders tend to be more widely owned, with higher salaries. That’s a problem in a salary-capped DFS contest, especially in a tournament where player ownership impacts your likelihood of winning the big money.