Week 3 is another feast fit for a contrarian king. Below, you’ll find under-the-radar jewels sprinkled with handfuls of backups and high-value props. It all kicks off with three NFL games that scream fantasy production.
(Note: This DFS cheat sheet is handcrafted specifically for Sunday’s “main slateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... More” DraftKings contest.)
Shootouts: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals
- Los Angeles Chargers (+1) at Minnesota Vikings (-1) – O/U 54.0
- It’s the biggest total on the slateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... More with two teams, both winless in their last 3 games, desperate for a W.
- The popularity of this matchup will drive up ownership, making it better suited to cash lineups than GPPs.
- With over 300 receiving yards in two games, Justin Jefferson will continue justifying his salary against LA’s 30th-ranked DVOA defense versus WR1s.
- Keenan Allen was a top-tier receiver last week (2 TDs and 100+ yards) but should revert to his mean in Minnesota against a top-10 WR1 defense.
- Chicago Bears (+13) at Kansas City Chiefs (-13) – O/U 48.0
- This one’s attracting considerable sharp betting on the under, suggesting a game script whereby KC jumps out to a first-half lead and grinds the clock in the second half.
- Travis Kelce found the endzone and proved he was healthy in Week 2.
- Isiah Pacheco should find plenty of running room with the Bears ranked 29th in FPsFantasy points More allowed to RBs.
- It’s only a matter of time till Justin Fields gets things going with his legs.
- Denver Broncos (+6.5) at Miami Dolphins (-6.5) – O/U 48.0
- 92% of money is being wagered on the over in this one.
- Raheem Mostert dominated on the ground last week and faces a Broncos D ranked 23rd in FPsFantasy points More to RBs.
- The Dolphins are even worse against the run, ranked 30th in the NFL in FPsFantasy points More allowed to RBs.
- Tyreek Hill has 255 receiving yards and three touchdowns in just two games this season.
Contrarian Corner: 3 Less Popular Players Who Could Sparkle
- Desmond Ridder, QB, Atlanta Falcons, $5,000
- Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots, $4,100
- Henry may be touchdown-dependent, but he has found the endzone in both games this season.
- The New York Jets are ranked 27th against opposing tight ends.
- Henry has been Mac Jones’ go-to this season, as the TE has 13 targets.
- Skyy Moore, WR, Kansas City Chiefs, $4,400
- Moore rebounded from a Week 1 dud with 70 yards and a touchdown in Week 2.
- With a spreadA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus point spread for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much the favorite will win by, and how much the underdog will lose by. A Spread of -7, for example, means the favorite is expected to win by 7 points. For more, see:
... More of 48 points, this game should have plenty of scoring opportunities. - KC’s normal WR1, Kadarius Toney (toe), missed two practices and was limited on Friday.
- The Chicago Bears ranks dead last in DVOA versus WR1s and 26th in FPsFantasy points More allowed to opposing WRs.
Backup Brilliance: Fill-in players at decent salaries with splash potential
- Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans, $3,600
- Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns, $4,800
- After Nick Chubb went down, Ford rushed for over 100 yards and racked up 27.1 fantasy points.
- Ford received 15 rushing attempts in Week 1, meaning the Browns trusted him even before Chubb’s injury.
- Admittedly, this is not a great matchup (TEN is 2nd best against the run in DVOA) but the price is right.
- Zach Moss, RB, Indianapolis Colts, $5,500
- We’re seeing the smart money betting on the Colts this week and Moss has 20+ FP in his last two starts
- Richardson is out, leaving Moss the key to Indy’s ground attack (Jonathan Taylor is out and Deon Jackson was released after an ugly debut.)
- Monitor the weather for this one. It may be stormy, which would make Moss a better play in Showdown contests.
Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios
- Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns, $4,800
- With a +117 TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). More line and cheap salary, Ford has one of the best [TDCost] values on the main slateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... More.
- Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins, $6,000
- Mostert dominated on the ground last week (121 yards + 2 TDs) and faces the 20th-ranked run D in DVOA.
- Travis Kelce, TE, KC Chiefs, $7,200
- Kelce has the second-highest TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). More on the slateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... More at -169.
- He’s playing in Arrowhead and Pacheco (RB) and Toney (WR) are banged up.
