Week 3 NFL DFS Cheatsheet – 2023

Week 3 is another feast fit for a contrarian king. Below, you’ll find under-the-radar jewels sprinkled with handfuls of backups and high-value props. It all kicks off with three NFL games that scream fantasy production.

(Note: This DFS cheat sheet is handcrafted specifically for Sunday’s “main slate” DraftKings contest.)

Shootouts: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

  1. Los Angeles Chargers (+1) at Minnesota Vikings (-1) – O/U 54.0
    • It’s the biggest total on the slate with two teams, both winless in their last 3 games, desperate for a W.
    • The popularity of this matchup will drive up ownership, making it better suited to cash lineups than GPPs.
    • With over 300 receiving yards in two games, Justin Jefferson will continue justifying his salary against LA’s 30th-ranked DVOA defense versus WR1s.
    • Keenan Allen was a top-tier receiver last week (2 TDs and 100+ yards) but should revert to his mean in Minnesota against a top-10 WR1 defense.
  2. Chicago Bears (+13) at Kansas City Chiefs (-13) – O/U 48.0
    • This one’s attracting considerable sharp betting on the under, suggesting a game script whereby KC jumps out to a first-half lead and grinds the clock in the second half.
    • Travis Kelce found the endzone and proved he was healthy in Week 2.
    • Isiah Pacheco should find plenty of running room with the Bears ranked 29th in FPs allowed to RBs.
    • It’s only a matter of time till Justin Fields gets things going with his legs.
  3. Denver Broncos (+6.5) at Miami Dolphins (-6.5) – O/U 48.0
    • 92% of money is being wagered on the over in this one.
    • Raheem Mostert dominated on the ground last week and faces a Broncos D ranked 23rd in FPs to RBs.
    • The Dolphins are even worse against the run, ranked 30th in the NFL in FPs allowed to RBs.
    • Tyreek Hill has 255 receiving yards and three touchdowns in just two games this season.

  1. Desmond Ridder, QB, Atlanta Falcons, $5,000
    • Only one starting QB is cheaper than Ridder in Week 3 (Zach Wilson.)
    • Ridder was finally able to get things going last week, with 276 all-purpose yards and 2 TDs.
    • The Detroit Lions are ranked 28th in FPs allowed to QBs and sharp money is pounding the ATL moneyline.
  2. Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots, $4,100
    • Henry may be touchdown-dependent, but he has found the endzone in both games this season.
    • The New York Jets are ranked 27th against opposing tight ends.
    • Henry has been Mac Jones’ go-to this season, as the TE has 13 targets.
  3. Skyy Moore, WR, Kansas City Chiefs, $4,400
    • Moore rebounded from a Week 1 dud with 70 yards and a touchdown in Week 2.
    • With a spread of 48 points, this game should have plenty of scoring opportunities.
    • KC’s normal WR1, Kadarius Toney (toe), missed two practices and was limited on Friday.
    • The Chicago Bears ranks dead last in DVOA versus WR1s and 26th in FPs allowed to opposing WRs.

Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire

Backup Brilliance: Fill-in players at decent salaries with splash potential

  1. Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans, $3,600
    • With an expanded role due to the loss of Noah Brown, Dell dropped 20.2 FPs in Week 2.
    • The rookie wideout linked had 10 targets and his first career TD.
    • The fact the sharp money is loading up on the HOU moneyline suggests above-expectation HOU offense.
  2. Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns, $4,800
    • After Nick Chubb went down, Ford rushed for over 100 yards and racked up 27.1 fantasy points.
    • Ford received 15 rushing attempts in Week 1, meaning the Browns trusted him even before Chubb’s injury.
    • Admittedly, this is not a great matchup (TEN is 2nd best against the run in DVOA) but the price is right.
  3. Zach Moss, RB, Indianapolis Colts, $5,500
    • We’re seeing the smart money betting on the Colts this week and Moss has 20+ FP in his last two starts
    • Richardson is out, leaving Moss the key to Indy’s ground attack (Jonathan Taylor is out and Deon Jackson was released after an ugly debut.)
    • Monitor the weather for this one. It may be stormy, which would make Moss a better play in Showdown contests.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

  1. Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns, $4,800
    • With a +117 TD prop line and cheap salary, Ford has one of the best [TDCost] values on the main slate.
  2. Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins, $6,000
    • Mostert dominated on the ground last week (121 yards + 2 TDs) and faces the 20th-ranked run D in DVOA.
  3. Travis Kelce, TE, KC Chiefs, $7,200
    • Kelce has the second-highest TD prop on the slate at -169.
    • He’s playing in Arrowhead and Pacheco (RB) and Toney (WR) are banged up.

Don’t forget to enter this week’s
free NFL DFS contest for cash!

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