How to Pick the Best DFS QB: 2023 Guide

Summary

Look for high scoring shootouts where the QB won’t be pressured excessively. Aim for QB expected to throw a minimum of 250 yards and/or rush over 50 yards, and score 2+ TDs. Ensure the QB has a minimum of two mid-tier or elite pass targets and beware of injuries. Don’t overspend and look for medium ownership or less, particularly in GPPGPP stands for guaranteed prize pool. It is a daily fantasy sports contest where the prize money is guaranteed, regardless of how many players participate. The prize payouts are generally skewed heavily to a small number of winners who win a large share of the pot. GPPs are often... More contests.

---

Passing accounts for 60-70% of NFL touchdowns and yardage so—needless to say—strategic quarterback selection is essential to creating a winning DFS lineup.

That’s why it’s tempting to pay up for an elite DFS QB.

But some of the savviest DFS players see things differently. They routinely try to save salary at the quarterback position and find value. They know the research, which shows:

• QB production is relatively consistent (so long as you don’t choose a below-average QB)
• There are at least 10 viable QBs each and every week.
• Most QBs throw 25+ passes per game, regardless of how good or bad they are.
• It’s easier to hit value with a QB than with any other position.

Nevertheless, there are facts you can’t ignore when drafting a signal caller. Below we highlight some of the main ones…

DFS Scoring for Quarterbacks

Let’s begin with the basics: How QBs score on DraftKings and FanDuel.

In other words:

• 300 passing yards is a cool 15 points (total)
• 3 passing TDs is good for 12 points (plus yardage)
• 100 rushing yards adds 13 points
  • Of course, for the vast majority of QBs, 100 yard rushing games are a dream.
  • For a few dual-threat QBs (like Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields,) it’s a reality.

Vegas Odds and DFS QB Selection

• Few know more about the NFL than Vegas linemakersA person, typically a sportsbook employee, who sets betting lines for an event. A linemaker (a.k.a. oddsmaker) will adjust his or her opening line as bets come in. Their goal is generally to attract an even amount of bets on each side of the line. So their lines must be accurate.... More, so it pays to lean on their predictions.
• Games projected to be high scoring and close (i.e., a high [OverUnderA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus over-under for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much both teams will score, combined. For more, see:
  • Over-Under
  More]) of 50+ and a [SpreadA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus point spread for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much the favorite will win by, and how much the underdog will lose by. A Spread of -7, for example, means the favorite is expected to win by 7 points. For more, see:
  ... More] less than 4 points) generally see more passing.
• As a rule of thumb:
  • QBs on teams with less than 23 implied points ( [TeamPtsA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus Vegas prediction of how many points a team will score in its game. For more, see:
    • Over-Under
    More] ) should usually not be considered.
  • The higher the implied points for the QB’s team the better
    • Just beware that the public flock to games with the highest implied totals. In GPPs especially, that makes it harder to get a leg up on your competitors and place in the money.
    • Also keep in mind, a team’s implied points have a positive correlation with passing, but not an overwhelmingly strong correlation.
• The Vegas point spreadA point spread (a.k.a., spread or line) is a linesmaker's prediction of the margin of victory in a given event. In sports, point spreads have a plus (+) or minus (-) sign, depending on whether the team is favored. A point spread of -7 for example, means that the favorite is expec... More itself is a somewhat less significant indicator than a QB’s implied team total. Or to put it another way, the link between QB production and [SpreadA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus point spread for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much the favorite will win by, and how much the underdog will lose by. A Spread of -7, for example, means the favorite is expected to win by 7 points. For more, see:
  ... More] is more modest.
• That said, QBs on favorites tend to outperform QBs on dogs, in terms of fantasy points, as one would expect. Additionally, QBs tend to do best when they’re favored by less than 5 points.
  • Pro Tip: Steer clear of QBs on teams that are heavy favorites and have a great running back. Think about the likely game flowGame flow refers to how a game is expected to unfold. If a team gains a big lead, for example, the flow of the game will generally see more rushing and less passing, and vice versa. Understanding potential game flow is essential if you want to draft the best value players. And it... More in that situation. You don’t want a QB that is handing the ball off most of the second half.
• Research shows that picking somewhat lower-cost, less popular QBs with lower expected fantasy points is a winning strategy. Remember, over the course of a season, the statistical gap between the best QB and 10th best QB is not that drastic.
  • That said, you definitely want to avoid the bottom 25% of QBs. They do not hit value consistently enough and that’s a problem because you only get one QB. Exceeding value at this position is vital if you want to win.
• When two QBs are near even, give the edge to the home favorite.
  • Things like adrenaline, rest, travel and climate all come into play. That typically makes home favorites the better QBs to focus on.

Focus on the Opposing Defense

• Pay attention to “pressureA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... More.”
  • Winning teams consistently have defenses that pressureA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... More the opposing QB.
  • “Pressure” refers to combined hurries, hits and sacks.
  • Pressuring the quarterback results in an average passer rating reduction of over 30 points, as Pro Football Focus has noted in the past.
    • Pro Tip: When evaluating a defense’s ability to pressureA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... More the QB in a brand new season, make sure you account for players who were traded in the offseason. Top pressureA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... More defenders often switch teams.
    • Side note: Note that QBs who get pressured less tend to throw shorter passes.
  • Needless to say, pressureA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... More on the quarterback (i.e., a high [PFFdef_gen_pressuresA DFS Hub field that equals the total number of pressures of the passer that were generated by the defense. A "pressure" is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Data source: Pro Football Focus (PFF) For more, see:
    • Pressure
    • PFF Player Grades
    More] value) is bad for fantasy performance. If possible:
    • Avoid the best defenses that pressureA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... More the QB significantly more than average — i.e., teams with a top 10 pass rush ( [PRSH] ).
    • Avoid QB’s with weak pass blockers (e.g., bottom 10 in [PBLK])
• Pay attention to the matchup between a QB and the opposing defense [OppPosRnkA DFS Hub field that equals the opposing team's NFL rank when defending the player's position. The range is 1 to 32.
  
  Lower numbers are worse for the player because it means the opposing team is ranked higher at defending that position. In other words, a value like 2 implie... More].
  • Do QBs throw a lot of interceptions when facing that defense?
    • The average NFL QB throws roughly 0.80 interceptions per game.
    • In general, less than 1 in 40 passes are intercepted.
    • Interceptions are often a function of the QBs pass attempts. The greater the attempts the greater the number of interceptions per game.
    • Touchdown-to-interception ratio has a high correlation with QB wins.

Core QB DFS Strategies

• When it comes to QB performance, key injuries matter.
  • NFL betting legend Billy Walters was asked what one piece of information could help him bet more profitably. His answer: ” How bad is the quarterback injuried?” (Because the QB is almost always injured. It’s just a matter of degree.)
  • The QB’s supporting cast is also relevant, of course. For example, is the QB’s #1 wide receiver or best tight end out?
• Don’t over-focus on volume, i.e., pass attempts.
  • Volume may be statistically significant for RBs, WRs and TEs. But for DFS QBs, its correlation with fantasy points is modest (only 0.31 on DraftKings, according to data from 4for4.com).
  • That said, it’s harder to find value in a QBs who attempt less than 30 throws per game.
• Focus on efficiency. These two efficiency stats have significantly higher correlations with fantasy points than others:
  • TD percentage
    • It has almost a 0.70 correlation with QB fantasy points. Albeit, the prior season’s TD percentage has a much lower correlation with this season.
    • Focus on TDs percentage based on all QB plays, not just passes thrown. It has the strongest relationship with fantasy points — even more so than completion percentageAlso known as "catch rate" or completion percentage, reception percentage equals a player's total receptions by total targets. More.
  • Pass yards per attempt ( [PFFYpaPassingSummaryA DFS Hub field that equals the average number of passing yards a quarterback has gained per passing attempt. Data source: Pro Football Focus (PFF) For more, see:
    • PFF Player Grades
    More] )
    • It has almost a 0.60 correlation with QB fantasy points.
    • Yards per attempt is more indicative than total yards, yards per game, yards per completion and passer rating because it factors in downfield passing ability and completion percentageAlso known as "catch rate" or completion percentage, reception percentage equals a player's total receptions by total targets. More. It doesn’t tell you anything about sacks, touchdowns or interceptions, however.

QB Stacks

• If a QB has a great day passing, so will his chosen wide receiver(s). You want to capitalize on that correlation and stack those players together, especially if you’re playing in a GPPGPP stands for guaranteed prize pool. It is a daily fantasy sports contest where the prize money is guaranteed, regardless of how many players participate. The prize payouts are generally skewed heavily to a small number of winners who win a large share of the pot. GPPs are often... More.
  • To win big dollar tournaments you need at least half your points to come from the QB and WR positions.
  • Stacking against weak defenses is especially powerful.
• First-place GPPGPP stands for guaranteed prize pool. It is a daily fantasy sports contest where the prize money is guaranteed, regardless of how many players participate. The prize payouts are generally skewed heavily to a small number of winners who win a large share of the pot. GPPs are often... More lineups most often have a two-man stack, with Quarterback-Wide Receiver being the most common winning stack.
  • By far, the most productive stack statistically is QB-WR1. This stack exceeds 50 points twice as often as QB-WR2.
• According to Fantasy Football Consultants, 1 in 3 past Millionaire Maker winners stacked a QB with the opposing team’s WR1.
  • The correlation works because the opposing team must often play catch-up to stay in the game.
• Avoid stacking a rushing QB with a WR (even with the opposite team’s WR1). Statistically, they are terrible QBs to stack.
• Avoid stacking a QB and two receivers from the same team unless the [SpreadA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus point spread for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much the favorite will win by, and how much the underdog will lose by. A Spread of -7, for example, means the favorite is expected to win by 7 points. For more, see:
  ... More] and [OverUnderA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus over-under for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much both teams will score, combined. For more, see:
  • Over-Under
  More] suggest the game will very likely feature a close, high-scoring shootout.

Other DFS QB Considerations

• Draftkings awards three bonus points for 300+ yard passing games. That gives extra value to top-flight QBs who are generally quite consistent, but only if they exceed 300 yards regularly.
  • That gives extra value to top-flight QBs who are generally quite consistent, but only if they exceed 300 yards regularly. The [YardsL10] field quickly shows you how many 300-yard games a QB has had over his last 10 contests.   
  • Don’t forget rushing yards. Lower-cost QBs with a high rushing floor (4-5 fantasy points or more) can easily offset the loss of a 300+ yard passing bonus.
• When the forecast calls for rain, remember that the worse the precipitation, the lower the projected passing yards ( [PrjPassYdsA DFS Hub field that equals the projected passing yards for a quarterback in his upcoming game. More] ).

Cash Game QB Tips

In cash gamesA cash game refers to a DFS contest in which roughly half the field wins a prize. The last place winner wins the same prize as the first place winner. While the prize payouts aren't as sexy as tournament contests (GPPs), the probability of placing in the money is usually higher. ... More (i.e., head to heads, 50/50s50/50s are DFS contests where entrants win if they beat at least 50% of competitors. Winners receive $1.80 back for every $1.00 bet. With a 10% rake, 50/50 players must win 55.6+% of the time to grow their bankroll. More, and double ups):

• QB is one position where you generally want to avoid the bargain basement. QBs priced below $5,500 are poor values historically, especially in cash gamesA cash game refers to a DFS contest in which roughly half the field wins a prize. The last place winner wins the same prize as the first place winner. While the prize payouts aren't as sexy as tournament contests (GPPs), the probability of placing in the money is usually higher. ... More.
  • For the best value, focus instead on mid-range priced QBs. They’re almost as consistent as a top tier QB and have a lower ownership percentage ( [PrjOwn] ). 
• On the other hand, don’t overspend on a quarterback. It seldom makes sense to pay up for a DFS QB unless there is significant value in other positions.
  • You’re better off paying up for the best RB, or even WR. That generally yields a higher return on investment than paying for the top QB.
  • For value, focus on mid-range priced QBs. They’re almost as consistent as a top tier QB, have a lower ownership percentage and hit their value significantly more often than high-priced QBs.

Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) QB Tips

• Winning a GPPGPP stands for guaranteed prize pool. It is a daily fantasy sports contest where the prize money is guaranteed, regardless of how many players participate. The prize payouts are generally skewed heavily to a small number of winners who win a large share of the pot. GPPs are often... More requires a QB:
  1. With a high ceiling. Home favorites have the highest ceilings.
     • Some QBs tend to perform significantly better at home than on the road (Drew Brees was known for this).
  2. That scores over 25 fantasy points ( [FPsFantasy points More] ) and throws for 300+ yards and/or three TDs.
• Start your QB research each week by choosing the best three stacks you can find. Millionaire Maker winners stack religiously.
  • Pro Tip: Take care not to overpay for the WR on a QB stack. The majority of the time, top winning lineups don’t have the best wide receiver stacked with his QB. It’s too costly.
• Winning GPPGPP stands for guaranteed prize pool. It is a daily fantasy sports contest where the prize money is guaranteed, regardless of how many players participate. The prize payouts are generally skewed heavily to a small number of winners who win a large share of the pot. GPPs are often... More lineups commonly feature QBs with low ownership (less than 10%).
  • Fun fact: Almost half of first-place Millionaire Maker lineups include a QB priced between $6,000 and $6,900 according to past data from 4for4.com. In 2018, just 1 in 17 Millionaire Maker winners paid over $6,300.

Miscellaneous

• Accuracy results in more fantasy points, particularly when coupled with volume (e.g., over 30 passing attempts per game). That’s why completion percentage is a widely used indicator of QB efficiency. What’s more telling, however, is adjusted completion percentageAlso known as "catch rate" or completion percentage, reception percentage equals a player's total receptions by total targets. More [PFFaccuracy_percent]. It credits QBs for things beyond their control, like receiver drops.
• Keep an eye on PFF’s pass coverage grades ( [PFFCOVA DFS Hub field that represents Pro Football Focus's (PFF's) grade for a team's for defensive coverage against receivers. For more, see:
  • PFF grades
  More] ), not just the opposing team’s pass rush grade. The lower the better. But remember:
  • Weak defenses are usually factored into player pricing (yes, there can be exceptions).
  • Be aware if a team’s top pass rushers or coverage men are injured.
• Second year QBs often make a major leap in effectiveness, by far the biggest year of improvement in their careers, according to PFF research.

QB Stats to Fade

• Don’t get too hung up on a QB’s performance in his last game.
  • “…There’s almost no correlation between quarterback performance from one game to the next,” finds 4for4.com.
  • Natural variance means that a bad QB performance one week doesn’t suggest a bad performance the next week.
• Passing yards are deceiving.
  • Per game passing yards in the prior season tend to have a decent correlation (0.60 per 4for4.com) with per game passing yards in the current season.
  • That said, a high passing total could mean a quarterback plays for a sub-par team with a weak defense and/or running game. One recent example would be Deshaun Watson, who won only 4 games but racked up 4,823 yards.

Best Value QB Plays from Latest Season