How to Pick the Best DFS Defense and Special Teams (DST): 2023 Guide

Summary

If a team is a heavy favorite that is able to put pressureA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... More on the opposing quarterback, there’s a good chance that they’ll be the best-performing DST. Things like touchdowns are fairly unpredictable for a team’s defense and special teams, so you’re better off paying attention to matchups and trying to find an inexpensive, yet well-researched, DST to slot into your lineup. Use our DFS tips to ensure you’re able to find the perfect DST for your lineup every week in 2023.

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You don’t have to spend big on defense to win tournaments. Most pros don’t.

Defense and special teams (DST) has the most volatility of any position in DFS, but there are several strategies that will improve your odds. Let’s dig into them…

Defense (DST) Scoring

First we’ll review the DST scoring rules. They are essentially the same for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Note: A team’s defense get 2 points for a blocked kick. In case you were wondering, that refers to either a blocked punt or a blocked field goal. If a “blocked” punt goes past the line of scrimmage, however, it doesn’t count as a “blocked” kick.

Core DFS DST Strategies

• Among all the major statistics, three are closely linked with DST fantasy scoring:
  1. Defense and Special Teams touchdowns
     • As FantasyLabs notes, DST TD’s are sporadic and not the most useful for predicting success
  2. Total takeaways ( [TakesL4] )
     • A takeaway is when the defense forces a fumble or interception and takes possession of the ball.
  3. A defense’s sack rate [Sack%L4Sack rate The median percentage of drop backs where the defense sacked the quarterback, over the last four games. This stat applies specifically to defenses (DSTs). More] has among the highest correlation with DST fantasy points. And it’s no surprise. Sacks kill drives.
     • The correlation between sacks/takeaways and defense scoring is greater than even the correlation between points allowed and defensive fantasy points.
     • That’s partly because high sack rates are also correlated with other types of defensive points like fumbles.
     • “…a sack saves a team 1.75 points each time a defender gets to the quarterback,” according to Chuck Smith.
     • But here’s the thing. Sacks are a popular stat, and that popularity means that high sack rates lead to higher ownership. What you want to look for are defensive pressuresA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... More on the quarterback, not sacks themselves. PressuresA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... More predict sacks. Using this approach improves your chances of finding a defense that generates a high sack rate, without the extra cost and ownership.
• Defensive pressuresA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... More on the quarterback [PFFDefGenPressures] predict future sacks and takeaways fairly well. Some research finds them being more predictive than even past sacks or takeaways—by a meaningful margin. And as you see above, total takeaways ( [TakesL4] ), which is fumbles + interceptions, is already one of the most related stats to DST production, with over a 0.66 correlation.
  • Factoid: In 2019 1 in 4 pressuresA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... More resulted in a sack (Source: fivethirtyeight.com)
• Defensive pressuresA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... More statistically result in fewer points per drive. And the average passer rating when a quarterback is pressured is over 25 points less than the passer rating from a clean pocket. (Source: PFF)
  • What best predicts pressureA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... More?
    • Past defensive pressureA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... More rates (and pressureA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... More allowed by offensive linemen)
      • Look for weak offensive lines that allow lots of pressuresA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... More. A below-average offensive line (i.e., a low [PFFOppPblkGrade]) leads to more fumbles, sacks and interceptions.
    • Changes in situation (injuries or a new offensive scheme, for example), and
    • Projected game flowGame flow refers to how a game is expected to unfold. If a team gains a big lead, for example, the flow of the game will generally see more rushing and less passing, and vice versa. Understanding potential game flow is essential if you want to draft the best value players. And it... More.
  • In other words, you want a:
    
    (A) Defense that is likely to be in a position to rush the quarterback as many times as possible (and be able to get to him), and
    
    (B) A QB that is likely to take sacks or make poor decisions in those pressureA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... More situations.
    
• Vegas odds are another excellent guide. You want your defense to be playing with over a 3 point lead. In other words, they need to be a solid favourite (i.e., have a negative [SpreadA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus point spread for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much the favorite will win by, and how much the underdog will lose by. A Spread of -7, for example, means the favorite is expected to win by 7 points. For more, see:
  ... More]), ideally a heavy favourite. Typically the more a team is favored, the more its DST will score.
  • Being a favorite leads to a DST scoring 33% more fantasy points than being an underdog (Source: 4FOR4.com).
• DSTs facing teams playing from behind can expect to see more passing, and net more sacks, interceptions, fumbles and defensive TDs.
  • Teams that are behind throw the ball about 2/3 of the time. That’s important because:
    • you want a defense that faces a throwing offense
    • all sacks, all interceptions and 60% of fumbles occur in the passing game (source: Fantasy Football Consultants).
  • A good offense will beat a good defense in the modern NFL. That means, other things equal, you want your DST facing a sporadic offense. The fewer points a defense is expected to allow the more DST fantasy points it earns.
    • Look for a low implied total ( [OppPtsOpponent Points The number of points the opponent is expected to score in its upcoming game. Another term for this is the opposing team total. More] ) for the opposition, ideally less than 20 points
    • Avoid high over/unders unless the DST’s team is a heavy favorite
  • Rarely should you choose a DST on an underdog team.
    • Note: Even a road favorite generally performs better than a home underdog.
    • If you must pick an underdog, make sure the point spreadA point spread (a.k.a., spread or line) is a linesmaker's prediction of the margin of victory in a given event. In sports, point spreads have a plus (+) or minus (-) sign, depending on whether the team is favored. A point spread of -7 for example, means that the favorite is expec... More and projected ownership are both small.
• After pressureA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... More rate and sack rate, points allowed ( [PAL4] ) is one the more useful statistics when it comes to comparing defenses.
• DST is a high volatility position. For that reason, when comparing DSTs, put more weight in matchups then defensive statistics.
  • Consider the opposing team’s average points scored per game. It’s a good indication of how well its offense performs.
  • Opposing offenses who lose recent games to weak opponents have a higher chance of underperforming their points expectation.

Other DST Strategies

• Don’t just focus on the best defense (lowest points allowed), focus on the defense that adds the most points. Look for defenses that disrupt the QB.
• Turnovers: Teams with a positive turnover differential in a given game win 70% of the time. Turnovers also lead to defensive points. For these reasons, you ideally want your defense to face an offense with a high turnover ratio.
  More specifically, it helps to face opponents that have:
  • a weak offensive line, which leads to more fumbles, sacks and interceptions.
  • a QB that throws a lot of interceptions or takes a lot of sacks.
    
    Just remember that turnovers are fairly random and somewhat luck-driven. Research shows that “Less than 3% of passes are intercepted, and less than 1% of run plays end in fumbles being recovered by the defensive team.” Hence, don’t rely too heavily on recent turnover performance. Studies show that teams with particularly high or low turnover differentials usually regress to the mean.
• Look for key injuries on the opposing team — e.g., the team’s #1 QB, running back or wide receiver is out.
• Don’t overspend on defense. DSTs score 15+ points only about 1 in 8 times, according to data from 4FOR4.com.
• You want to pay down because DSTs have a lot of variance
  • Paying up $1,000 for a premier defense might net you just two more FPsFantasy points More on average. That’s less fruitful than paying up for a RB or WR.
  • For value, look for inexpensive DSTs where:
    • the opposing QB is banged up, or
    • the opposing O-line is missing some starters.
• Consider home field advantage. History shows, a defense playing at home is more likely to deliver a greater number of sacks and interceptions and suppress the opposing team’s point production.
  • This means that if a strong offense is ever going to underperform, it’s going to be on the road in an inhospitable stadium.
• Defense salaries cost an average of over $1,000 more on FanDuel. In turn, DST performance needs to be higher on FanDuel than DraftKings.
• When a team is solidly favored, two stacking strategies can be particularly effective:
  • stacking that team’s DST with a running back
  • stacking its DST with its kicker
• Apart from the obvious, like yards allowed and completion percentageAlso known as "catch rate" or completion percentage, reception percentage equals a player's total receptions by total targets. More, here are two other defensive stats of importance:
  • 3rd down conversion ratio
    • Getting your defense off the field is vital to keeping them fresh and minimizing points allowed. Not surprisingly then, teams who shut down opponents on 3rd downs are well correlated with defensive success.
  • Red zone touchdown percentage

Cash Game DST Tactics

• If you pick a defense with a high degree of consistency, that’s valuable.
  • Just keep in mind, the highest priced defenses don’t consistently deliver enough value.
  • Instead, target mid-tier defenses with the highest possible floor [FloorL3].
• Try to avoid picking bottom of the barrel DSTs in cash gamesA cash game refers to a DFS contest in which roughly half the field wins a prize. The last place winner wins the same prize as the first place winner. While the prize payouts aren't as sexy as tournament contests (GPPs), the probability of placing in the money is usually higher. ... More. They can sink your lineup.

GPP DST Tactics

• Correlation is key with GPPGPP stands for guaranteed prize pool. It is a daily fantasy sports contest where the prize money is guaranteed, regardless of how many players participate. The prize payouts are generally skewed heavily to a small number of winners who win a large share of the pot. GPPs are often... More lineups. It therefore pays, at times, to stack a defense and RB from the same team.
  • But: Ensure the offense is a heavy favorite (4+ point fave). That way:
    • your RB gets more reps, and
    • your DST can attack the opponent while they’re passing.
• Very small underdogs are sometimes acceptable if they check all the other boxes, if for no other reason than they’re contrarian.
• Historically speaking, and on average, big GPPGPP stands for guaranteed prize pool. It is a daily fantasy sports contest where the prize money is guaranteed, regardless of how many players participate. The prize payouts are generally skewed heavily to a small number of winners who win a large share of the pot. GPPs are often... More winners haven’t usually spent more than:
  • $3,500 on DraftKings
  • $4,700 on FanDuel

Miscellaneous

• Most teams are solid at defending the run or solid at defending the pass. It’s uncommon to find a team that’s outstanding at both. That means you have to consider the opponent’s run and pass prowess carefully.
  • For example, when facing a team that has a top running back and top run-blockers, avoid paying up for a top defense (DST) that’s only modestly above-average at stopping the run.
• Stats to fade:
  • Passing yards allowed has just about the lowest correlation to DST performance, according to past research from FantasyLabs. The points allowed are what matters, not the yards against.
  • Rushing yards allowed and time of possession are also of little value (source).