Week 5 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet – 2024

Week 5 is here, and finally, there are four weeks of current-season data to analyze matchups. After dissecting all 12 contests for this Sunday, October 6, we’ve compiled the Week 5 DFS cheat sheet below. The mission: highlight value plays that showcase the site’s player filters and predictive metrics.

So, without further ado, here’s DFS Hub’s VIP (very important player) list for today’s DraftKings main slate — along with reasons why these players are top-shelf.

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Quick Tip

If you don’t know what the fields below mean,
hit up the NFL DFS Field Glossary.

Quarterback (QB)

On top this week: Caleb Williams: The rookie QB enters Week 5 with a juicy matchup against a Carolina D sporting a DvPL4 of 19.8 fantasy points. While Williams has failed to eclipse at least 12 FPs in three of his four games, the Bears quarterback has averaged over 230 yards per game since his Week 1 outing of just 93 passing yards. Against a poor D, Williams will have a chance to provide solid value with his $5,800 DraftKings salary.

Methodology: We seek QBs on teams expected to score more than average, with above-average pass blocking, facing opponents with a below-average pass rush and below-average coverage, according to PFF grades.

DFS Hub QB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [TeamPts] > 21 & [PFFPBLKSd] > 0 & [PFFOppPRSHSd] < 0 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < 0 & ranked by overall matchup, player performance (e.g., [ANY/A]) and value (e.g., [Cost/Op]).
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Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams (Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)

To see all QB’s matching this criteria

Go to the NFL DFS Lineup Builder

Running Back (RB)

On top this week: Jordan Mason: Mason continues to dominate with CMC out of the lineup and this week should be no different with a matchup against an Arizona defense ranked 28th in the league in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Mason has also gotten more involved in the passing game, with a season-high 37 receiving yards and three targets in Week 4. With TDs in three of four games, Mason provides a pretty safe floor.

Methodology: We seek RBs on favored teams or slight dogs, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected fantasy points, above-average run blocking, and facing teams with below-average run defenses. The preference is for RBs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub RB Criteria: [Depth] = 1 & [Spread] < 2.5 & [PrjFP] > 15 & [Prop1TD] < -50 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFRblkSd] > 0 & [PFFOppRDEFSd] < 0 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).

San Francisco 49ers RB Jordan Mason (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)

Wide Receiver (WR)

On top this week: Jayden Reed: With Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs out of the lineup, Reed will have plenty of opportunities to be the lead pass catcher for Green Bay. Reed made the most of his eight targets in Week 4, hauling in 139 yards in a touchdown. Against an LA Rams D ranked 27th in the league in FPs allowed to wide receivers, Reed might be in line for one of Week 5’s biggest performances.

Methodology: We seek WRs in the top 4 depth chart positions, on favored teams or slight dogs that’ll score more than average, with better-than-average TD prop odds, above-average quarterbacks, and facing teams with below-average coverage. The preference is for WRs with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub WR Criteria: [Depth] < 4 & [Spread] < 2.5 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [TeamPts] > 22 & [PFFOppCOVSd] < 0 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
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Green Bay Packers WR Jayden Reed (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)

Tight End (TE)

On top this week: Tucker Kraft: Reed wasn’t the only player who saw considerable target share in Week 4, as Kraft’s nine targets were more than he’d seen through his first three games. The Rams are right at the bottom of the league in FPs allowed to tight ends, ranked 29th overall. Kraft should also be a beneficiary of Green Bay’s banged-up pass catchers, and with a DraftKings salary of just $3,500, he’s a great Week 5 value play.

Methodology: The TE position is where we aim to save salary. We look for TEs in the top 2 depth chart positions, with better-than-average TD prop odds and projected opportunities. The preference is for tight ends with low salaries relative to their odds of scoring.

DFS Hub TE Criteria: [Depth] < 3 & [Prop1TD] < 300 & [Sal($k)] <4 & [PrjOps] > 4 & ranked by overall match-up and player performance (e.g., lowest [TDCost]).
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Green Bay Packers TE Tucker Kraft (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)

Defense and Special Teams (DST)

On top this week: Denver Broncos: The Denver D has put up double-digit points in three of their four games this season while not once allowing more than 185 passing yards. The Raiders offense is in flux, and without Davante Adams there aren’t many threats in their lineup.

Methodology: We want a cost-effective better-than-average defense (according to PFF grades), facing a below-average offense with below-average expected points. We then look for teams with the highest QB hit rate.

DFS Hub DST Criteria: [PFFDEFSd] >0 & [OppPts] < 22 & [Sal($k)] <4 & [Spread < 2.5] & ranked by overall match-up (e.g., [PFFOppPBLKSd]) and team pressures (e.g., [QBHits%L4]).

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Draft a lineup in this week’s free NFL DFS contest and win a DFS Hub Season Pass!

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