Crack NFL DFS Lineup Mysteries With PFF Grades

NFL DFS PFF Grade

Ever felt like understanding PFF Grades was like deciphering ancient runes? Well, put away the archeologist’s hat, because turning those cryptic PFF Grades into a winning NFL DFS lineup is more straightforward than a quarterback’s throw to an open receiver.

There’s an endless sea of talented NFL players to pick from when building your roster. Harnessing Pro Football Focus Player Grades can be the difference maker needed to get you into the winner’s circle. The video below gives you a basic playbook.

Pro members can exploit PFF grades right away by creating player filters in DFS Hub’s NFL Lineup Builder (screenshot below).

This example shows three PFF Grades, as seen in the NFL DFS Lineup Builder

Simply load the PFF fields into the Player List, then sort or filter as smoothly as a star running back dodges tackles.

This example above shows wide receivers and three PFF grades:

  • Each player’s PFF receiving grade
  • PFF’s grade for the team’s passing attack
  • PFF’s grade for the opposing team’s coverage.

The highlighted player in the screenshot above shows how PFF grades excel at finding low-cost, low-owned highly-skilled players.

Pro Tip: You don’t want to roster just any cheap, talented player with a high PFF grade. After all, a lot of skilled players see little playing time. The key is waiting for the right matchup or opportunity. For example, look for situations where another player of his position is injured or not performing well. It’s even better if your bargain bin player has seen a recent uptick in reps in practice or action on the field.

If you’re hungry for a meatier overview of how Pro Football Focus Player Grades can enhance your DraftKings or FanDuel entries, this PFF Grades guide is waiting on the sideline. Think of it as a personal coaching session, without the angry halftime speeches.

Tips for Crafting a Week 1 NFL DFS Lineup That Could Even Make Your Cat Proud

lamar_jackson_dfs_2023

How Not to Fumble Your 2023 NFL DFS Week One Roster

Week 1 of the NFL is a magical time, a time when hope springs eternal, spouses and non-football friendships are put on hold, and everyone thinks they’re the next Vince Lombardi of fantasy football.

It’s a chance to start fresh and set the tone for the rest of the season. But before you dive into building your lineup like a hungry linebacker at a buffet, let’s review the basics.

When it comes to Week 1 NFL DFS, change is the theme. Teams have been playing musical chairs more than a kindergarten class party, so it’s essential to keep up with free agency, trades, rookies and injuries.

And don’t forget about the coaching staff changes. NFL teams have been changing coaches this offseason more than DK Metcalf changes his hairstyle. Understanding how these swaps affect players’ opportunities—on their revamped offenses and defenses—can give you an edge.

So grab your helmet (the one with the drink holder, of course), and let’s study the week 1 playbook.

NFL Offseason Changes and their Impact on Daily Fantasy Football

Navigating the turbulent seas of NFL offseason is a sport in itself. When a player changes teams, you’d better believe their role and production potential will change too. The question is, for the better or worse?

Take Aaron Rodgers’ departure from the Packers to the Jets, for instance. Going from the cheese factory to the Big Apple gets him new teammates, a new playbook, and even a new favorite pizza place. But hold on, it also includes a reunion with a coach who knows Rodgers’ favorite color. Could this be the key to fantasy success? It’s every DFS player’s job to research and find out.

It’s important to consider factors such as offensive scheme, supporting cast, position on the depth chart, and chemistry with his new team. DeAndre Hopkins may have big-name swagger, but are he and Tannehill going to have enough chemistry to surmount the Titan’s craptastic O-line? The answer could make all the difference in someone’s Week 1 Lineup.

Now, let’s talk coaching changes, the spices of daily fantasy football stew. A sprinkle of new offensive philosophy here, a dash of play calling there, and suddenly your star player tastes more like a benchwarmer.

Whether it’s a head coach’s innovative ideas or an offensive coordinator’s love for running the ball, a coaching change can shake up fantasy expectations like a snow globe. Sometimes it’s a winter wonderland of opportunity; other times, it’s a blizzard of disappointment for a player’s production.

(Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)

Outdated DFS Pricing and Why You Should Stalk NFL Players (For Injury Reports, Not Autographs)

Injuries in the NFL are like late-night infomercials, unavoidable and often confusing. I mean, who needs a salad spinner that doubles as a karaoke machine? But back to football! When crafting your Week 1 NFL DFS lineup, one must channel their inner Sherlock Holmes to decipher the ever-changing riddles of injury reports and game-time decisions.

Imagine investing your hard-earned fantasy dollars in a superstar who’s nursing an injury, only to find out that he’s benched, doing sudoku on the sidelines. “Questionable” is then more than a status; its becomes the label for your entire lineup.

So, sharpen those detective talents, dear Watson, and keep one eye on DFS Hub’s injury alerts, one eye on our player news feed, and the other on Twitter (assuming you have a third eye). Lineup adjustments in the 90 minutes before kickoff are like the twist in a mystery novel – thrilling, and sometimes rewarding.

Now, let’s talk about Week 1 pricing. Week 1 DFS salaries can get more outdated than wall-to-wall shag carpet. They’re set way in advance, ignoring pre-season injuries, sudden drops down the depth chart, pre-season suspensions and new signings.

This oversight and a willingness to make last-minute lineup changes can be your golden tickets. While others are blindly scouring the clearance aisle, you can grab some prime value plays for NFL Week 1—players who are healthy and poised to see ample opportunities. It’s like finding a designer suit at a garage sale, minus the awkward haggling.

How to Not Let Late-Breaking News and Lineup Changes Tackle Your DFS Dreams

In the rapid-fire rodeo of professional football, surprises are as common as touchdown dances. Let’s talk about how to stay on top of NFL news without feeling like you’re trying to catch a greased pig at a county fair.

Imagine you’ve got your DFS lineup set, you’re feeling smug, maybe even humming “We Are the Champions,” when suddenly – BAM! – a trade happens, a first-round pick goes down, a coach goes rogue and unexpectedly starts a 3rd-rounder in place of a tested vet, or a third-string towel boy gets promoted to starting quarterback. Anything’s possible in the Twilight Zone of Week 1.

True DFS gurus channel their inner news hound. They follow reputable sources of NFL news like beat reporters and verified team accounts. Stalk these sources on DFS Hub’s news and Twitter feeds like a cat stalks a laser pointer, but with more dignity.

DFS Hub’s New & Twitter Feeds

Rookie Roulette: How to Invest in Baby-Faced Gridiron Gladiators Before Their DFS Stock Skyrockets

Ah, rookies – those fresh-faced football fledglings, sporting a mix of nervous jitters and bold dreams. In the world of DFS, they’re like that hidden gem at a garage sale, a potential masterpiece hiding behind grandma’s old knitting patterns.

So how can you use these budget-friendly, cleat-wearing cherubs to your advantage in your NFL DraftKings or FanDuel lineup? Well, first, let’s talk cold, hard cash. Rookies are often priced like a fast-food dollar menu, making them the go-to choice for thrifty DFS players looking for value. You’ll find receiver options galore in the $4,000 range. As for running backs, it depends if it’s a high-profile first-round starter like Bijan Robinson ($8,000). If so, he’ll start the season fully-priced cuz hype ain’t cheap.

Now, let’s take a stroll down memory lane to last season using DFS Hub’s WhichStatMatter’s page. After week 1, Chris Olave, that superstar rookie wide receiver of the New Orleans Saints, was popping out high-value games like a popcorn machine in overdrive. He had seven of his nine highest-value games in the first half of the season. Why, you ask? Because his salary was lower than a limbo stick, sitting pretty at a lowly $4,500 for the first three weeks.

So, next time you’re puzzling over your DFS lineup and contemplating whether to go with the tried-and-true veterans or take a gamble on the rookies, embrace a high-probability rookie or two. But do it before they become pricier than a stadium beer.

(Photo by David Jensen/Icon Sportswire)

Rookie Revelry and the Art of Owning Underdogs

Picking which rookies to roster in your Week 1 NFL DFS lineups is like a thrilling treasure hunt mixed with a bit of “eeny, meeny, miny, moe.” You see, it’s not just about grabbing the bargain-bin rookies like they’re half-priced socks on Black Friday. Oh no, my fantasy fanatic friend, you’ll need to don your thinking cap, and consider three things:

  1. Matchup Mania:
    Look for those juicy matchups, the ones where rookies have the chance to shine like a freshly waxed bald head. Maybe it’s a defense that’s softer than your grandpa’s mashed potatoes, or a game where the rookie gets more playtime than a pre-K class. Either way, finding these mismatches is like finding a twenty-dollar bill in old jeans – unfettered joy.
  2. The Underdog Uprising:
    Even if a rookie’s not first on the depth chart, don’t discount them. If their team is predicted to trounce the opposition, they could very well get added targets or carries.
  3. Owning the Obscure:
    Lastly, let’s talk ownership percentage or, as I like to call it, “How to Be a DFS Hipster.” Low ownership is your secret weapon in tournaments (GPPs). It’s like discovering an indie band before they become mainstream. If everyone’s eyeing wide receiver Smith-Njigba of the Seahawks, why not flex a Dalton Kincaid of the Buffalo Bills? It’s so uncool, it’s cool!

In any case, don your virtual coaching whistle and become a master of rookie matchups and ownership numbers. And remember, picking rookies is a bit like dating – exciting, unpredictable, and sometimes you’ll wonder what you were thinking. But when it works out, oh boy, it’s a dance in the end zone!

Preseason Data: Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Meaningless Games

Preseason games are where stats mean nothing and rookies try to shine like a new car before its first scratch. If NFL DFS were a movie, preseason data would be the quirky side character that steals scenes but doesn’t actually affect the plot.

Lance McCutcheon, the LA Rams’ rookie sensation last season, was their leading receiver in all three preseason games! His hands were like high-power football magnets; surely, a star was born! Fast forward to the regular season, and suddenly those magnets got a polarity switch – five targets, no catches across ten games. His preseason hype train went from express to out-of-commission right quick.

You see, overvaluing rookies based on preseason heroics is a bit like judging a book by its cover, a movie by its trailer, or a cat by its willingness to sit on your lap. It’s superficial, and you might end up with claw marks.

Of course, rookies aren’t the only actors with misleading performances, but unless it’s a veteran player returning from injury and trying to show he’s healthy (and not just trying to impress his Instagram followers), most preseason stats are about as useful as a sunroof on a submarine.

So, as you gear up for week 1, think of preseason data as the zesty salsa to your research and analysis chips – a fine supplement, but not the main meal. And remember, if you’re ever tempted to hop aboard a preseason hype train, make sure to validate your ticket with some serious research, or you might just find yourself at the wrong station, wondering why Lance McCutcheon isn’t catching anything but flak.

(Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

Conclusion: How to Craft a Week 1 NFL DFS Lineup That’s Not a Train Wreck

Building a cashable lineup isn’t about using your gut and hoping for the best. It’s a majestic dance of research, strategy, and a sprinkle of that magical fairy dust called luck. It’s a bit like baking a cake, but with more analytics and fewer eggs.

Here’s the four-star recipe to help you whip up a Week 1 victory:

  1. Understand the Game Script: Analyze matchups, trends, and whether a player prefers has his coach’s favor.
  2. Use Advanced Gizmos: Statistics, PFF Player Grades, stat correlations, analytics, and whatever else makes you sound smart at parties.
  3. Monitor Injuries and Changes: Stalk injury reports like a cat stalking a laser dot. Just don’t pounce on your screen; it hurts.
  4. Stay Up-to-Date with Player News: Because in the NFL, changes happen faster than a toddler’s mood swings.

And if all of that sounds more complicated than explaining the offside rule to your grandma, fear not. DFS Hub’s Free NFL Lineup Builder is here to make your Week 1 DFS success as easy as finding a cat video on the internet.

Happy DFS-ing. 🏈

2023 NFL Draft: Potential Starters & DFS Impact Players

NFL DFS Rookies 2023

The NFL Draft has a rich history of supplying rookies that make a DFS impact, right out of the gate.

Sometimes first-round picks boost their teams’ fortunes right away, making Pro Bowls and earning Rookie of the Year honors while they’re at it. Cam Newton (2011, 1st overall) Odell Beckham Jr. (2014, 12th overall) and Ezekiel Elliott (2016, 4th overall) are just a handful of examples.

Today we’ll look at first-rounders from the 2023 NFL Draft, specifically those who could yield DFS value early in the season. We’ll review all four offensive skill positions to find the rookies that could return surplus DFS [Value].

Value, in this context, refers to DraftKings fantasy points divided by the player’s DraftKings salary. Aiding in this endeavor is DFS Hub’s WhichStatMatters page. If you haven’t seen it yet, check out the infinitely different ways in which the WhichStatMatters page ranks DFS performance.

Quarterbacks

KANSAS CITY, MO – APRIL 27: Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud with a jersey after being drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft on April 27, 2023 at Union Station in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)

For the 2022-23 season, starting quarterbacks generated an average of 17.2 fantasy points per game at an average DraftKings salary of $6k ($6,000).

Do a little division (17.2 / 6) and, the typical starting quarterback provided 2.8 times their salary last season.

There are two high-probability QBs that could exceed that value in the 2023-24 NFL campaign:

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers – The first overall pick out of Alabama will be an early favorite to be crowned the 2023 Rookie of the Year. Despite the paltry offense fielded by the Panthers last season, Young will have newly added veteran wide receiver Adam Thielen to rely on. The rookie QB will also be joined by running back Miles Sanders, who comes over from the Philadelphia Eagles. On top of that is another important new face in former Rams coach Thomas Brown, who will be Young’s offensive coordinator. 

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans – Stroud is a pure pocket passer which may limit some of his DFS upside, but he should be able to make up for it with pinpoint accuracy and limited turnovers. With Dalton Schultz making the move from Dallas to Houston, the rookie quarterback will have a trustworthy tight end to dump off passes to. Schultz supplements wideouts Robert Woods and Nico Collins. Talented young running back Dameon Pierce is also in the mix for Stroud, if he finds himself in trouble. Perhaps most importantly, Houston has beefed up its O-line, both in the draft and via free agency.

Running Backs

NEW ORLEANS, LA – DECEMBER 31: Alabama Crimson Tide running back Jahmyr Gibbs (1) attempts to break a tackle by Kansas State Wildcats safety Josh Hayes (1) during the Sugar Bowl between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Kansas State Wildcats at Caesars Superdome on December 31, 2022 in New Orleans, LA. (Photo by Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire)

Last year, starting running backs (those first on Depth Chart) had an average of 14.5 fantasy points per game and an average $6,500 salary on DraftKings. That meant the typical starting running back yielded 2.2 times their salary last season.

Here are two rookie halfbacks that could easily exceed that figure throughout their rookie year:

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions – The biggest downside to Gibbs in the Lions backfield was D’Andre Swift. That problem is solved with Swift being quickly traded after the draft. The Lions shocked draft watchers by scooping up Gibbs with their 12th overall pick, and they won’t be disappointed. While not a brute back, he’s a fast accelerating runner with moves and a talented receiver. Running behind one of the best lines in football, he’ll have every opportunity to fill up the stat sheet come September. And his price may be reasonable too, given he’ll split time with Montgomery.

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons – It’s hard not to be excited about a player with comps to Saquon Barkley. Robinson is electric. He catches the ball and runs with the patience and ferocity that makes it hard for just one defender to take him down. While the Falcons didn’t necessarily need a running back, Robinson is considered by many to be a can’t-miss prospect. He’ll enter the league with the same gusto that Barkley did back in 2018 and get all the touches he can handle.

Wide Receivers

KANSAS CITY, MO – APRIL 27: Ohio State wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba holds a jersey with commission Roger Goodell after being drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft on April 27, 2023 at Union Station in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)

For the 2022 season, starting wide receivers (those first and second on the depth chart) had an average of 12.2 fantasy points per game at an average DraftKings salary of $5,700. This means that, on average, a starting wide receiver returned 2.1 times their salary.

Both Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson came out of the 2022 NFL Draft on fire. Here are two more pass catchers that could do the same in 2023:

Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks – With the 20th pick of the draft, the Seahawks have given QB Geno Smith another big-time weapon. This shows they’re invested in Smith and, in turn, trust that Smith-Njigba will contribute right away. The rookie WR can play in the slot or on the outside, allowing him plenty of routes alongside DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens – Between injuries and underperformances, the Ravens didn’t have any sure things at the wide receiver position. Flowers will see his fair share of targets alongside Odell and Rashod Bateman. He has a history of making good use of those targets with an impressive YAC. Look for Flowers to be a high-impact player for Lamar Jackson in the slot.

Tight Ends

LAS VEGAS, NV – DECEMBER 02: Tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) of the Utah Utes reacts during the Pac-12 Conf. championship game between Utah and USC on December 2, 2022 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Speer/Icon Sportswire)

This past year, starting tight ends had an average of 8.5 fantasy points per game and an average DraftKings salary of $3,900. On average, a starting tight end provided 2.1 times their salary in DK points.

Historically, first-year tight ends have had a tough time making an immediate fantasy impact in comparison to other skill positions. And with only one TE taken in the first round this year, all eyes will be on one rookie.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills – While the Buffalo Bills already have a dependable tight end in Dawson Knox, the Bills couldn’t pass up Dalton Kincaid, far and away the best tight end in the draft. While Kincaid joins an already-packed offense filled with big-time pieces, Kincaid will get his chances. Moreover, he’s capable of making the most of them with sticky hands and burst-speed that create separation. Expect him to have a low DFS salary early in the season and, as such, a high chance at providing great value in the right matchups.


For more tips and assistance on both rookies and veteran players, utilize our Free NFL DFS Lineup Builder throughout the football season.

Super Bowl LVII NFL DFS Player Values

February 12, 2023 — 6:30 p.m. ET:

The Chiefs (16-3) are underdogs as they meet the Eagles (16-3) in Super Bowl LVII. That could be all the motivation Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the Chiefs need to grab their second championship ring of the 2020s. They face off against Jalen Hurts and a hard-hitting Eagles defense, one that led the NFL in sacks by a wide margin.

(Records shown include playoff games)

Vegas odds for Super Bowl LVII:

As of Saturday, here’s the Vegas consensus for Super Bowl LVII.

Slate

Team

Spread

O/U

Line

Super Bowl Odds

KC

+1.5

O 51

+105

@ PHI

-1.5

U 51

-125

Under The Radar DFS Players

Below are potential bargain bin options from the Super Bowl. (See methodology below)

Kansas City Chiefs Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

Marquez Valdes-Scantling  |  WR, KC


$6,200


Has scored a touchdown in both of KC’s postseason games. Target percentage of 18% over last four games. Scored a season high 26.6 FPs in AFC Championship game.

Harrison Butker  
K, KC

$4,000

Averaging 11 FPs per game over last three games with 13 FPs in both postseason games. Has hit all five field goal attempts this postseason.

Kadarius Toney  
WR, KC

$5,200

Has at least 10 FPs in three of last four games. With Mecole Hardman out, Toney should see an increase in targets and should continue to see red zone opportunities.

Philadelphia Eagles Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

Kenneth Gainwell   RB, PHI

$5,000

Averaging 10 opportunities per game over last four games and received more carries than Miles Sanders in NFC Championship game, including three red zone opportunities. Had 14 carries and three targets in NFC Championship game. Has scored 31.5 FPs in two postseason games.

Dallas Goedert   TE, PHI

$6,400

KC D ranks 23rd in FPs allowed to TEs. Averaging six targets per game over last four games with a target percentage of 20%.

Boston Scott  
RB, PHI

$3,000

Has scored a touchdown in each of the last three games. Averaging 9.6 FPs per game over last three games with a floor of 8.1 FPs.

How This Works

Every week, we analyze three “under the radar” NFL DFS values from the early and afternoon slates on DraftKings. The goal is to find players with more than a 40% chance of scoring four times their salary. That means a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)] x 4.

Among other things, we factor in:

  1. Only DraftKings players with salaries of $6,900 or less
  2. Team matchups
  3. Whether projected opportunities are sufficient to return 4x DFS value
  4. The Super Bowl NFL injury report for fantasy players.

Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s vital for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently.

Conference Championship I NFL DFS Player Values

The Marquee Matchups for January 29, 2023:

  • 49ers (15-4) at Eagles (15-3) — Jalen Hurts and the Eagles blasted through the Giants, earning themselves the opportunity to host the red hot 49ers. San Francisco is coming in with a 12 game winning streak.
  • Bengals (14-4) at Chiefs (15-3) — The two most recent AFC Champions will fight to represent their conference once more. Joe Burrow’s Bengals head to KC to face Pat Mahomes and company, for what should be a frenetic scoring fest.

    (Records shown include playoff games)

Vegas odds for the Conference Championship Round matchups:

Here are the two Conference Championship contests and their Vegas lines.

Slate

Team

Spread

O/U

Line

Conference Championship Slate

CIN

-1.5

O 46.5

-130

@ KC

+1.5

U 46.5

+110

SF

+2.5

O 46

+125

@ PHI

-2.5

U 46

-145

Under The Radar DFS Players

Below are potential bargain bin options from the Conference Championship Round. (See methodology below)

NFC Championship Game Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

Dallas Goedert | TE, PHI

$4,100

Has seen a target percentage of 19% over last four games. Averaging 10.1 FPs over last four games with only one game under 9.7 points over last seven games. Has seen 18 targets over last three games.

Elijah Mitchell | RB, SF

$4,900

Averaging 10.5 opportunities and 2 red zone opportunities per game over last four games. PHI D ranks 17th in NFL in FPs allowed to RBs.

George Kittle | TE, SF

$5,200

Leads all tight ends in receiving yards this postseason with 132 yards. Target percentage of 20% over last four games while averaging 5.5 opportunities. Only one game under 12.3 FPs over last six games.

AFC Championship Game Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

Kenneth Gainwell   RB, PHI

$5,000

Averaging 10 opportunities per game over last four games and received more carries than Miles Sanders in NFC Championship game, including three red zone opportunities. Had 14 carries and three targets in NFC Championship game. Has scored 31.5 FPs in two postseason games.

Dallas Goedert   TE, PHI

$6,400

KC D ranks 23rd in FPs allowed to TEs. Averaging six targets per game over last four games with a target percentage of 20%.

Boston Scott  
RB, PHI

$3,000

Has scored a touchdown in each of the last three games. Averaging 9.6 FPs per game over last three games with a floor of 8.1 FPs.

How this works

Every week, we analyze three “under the radar” NFL DFS values from the early and afternoon slates on DraftKings. The goal being, to find players with more than a 40% chance of scoring four times their salary. That means a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)] x 4.

Among other things, we factor in:

  1. Only DraftKings players with salaries of $6,900 or less
  2. Team matchups
  3. Whether projected opportunities are sufficient to return 4x DFS value
  4. The Conference Championship Round NFL injury report for fantasy players.

Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s vital for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently.

Divisional Round NFL DFS I “Under the Radar” Player Values

The Marquee Matchups for January 21-22, 2023:

  • Jaguars (10-8) at Chiefs (14-3) — Following a Wild Card comeback for the ages, Trevor Lawrence will look to keep up the magic against the fantasy juggernaut that is Pat Mahomes.
  • Giants (10-7-1) at Eagles (14-3) — The NFC East is well represented in the Divisional Round as Saquon Barkley hopes to outrun a dangerous Philly offense.
  • Cowboys (14-5) at 49ers (14-4) — The Dallas Cowboys will attempt to make it back to the NFC Championship game for the first time in over 25 years against an experienced San Francisco squad that was there just last season.

    (Records shown include playoff games)

Vegas odds for the divisional round matchups:

The first game of the weekend is predicted to have the most scoring. Here are the four divisional contests and their Vegas lines.

Slate

Team

Spread

O/U

Line

Saturday Slate

JAX

+8.5

O 53

+350

@ KC

-8.5

U 53

-435

NYG

+7.5

O 48

+300

@ PHI

-7.5

U 48

-365

Sunday Slate

CIN

+5

O 48.5

+195

@ BUF

-5

U 48.5

-230

DAL

+3.5

O 46

+160

@ SF

-3.5

U 46

-190

Under The Radar DFS Players

Below are potential bargain bin options from the Divisional Round. (See methodology below)

Saturday Slate Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

Christian Kirk | WR, JAX

$6,000

Has seen 24 targets over last two games while scoring over 21 FPs per game. KC D ranks 22nd in league in FPs allowed to WRs. Game has spread of 53 and with Jaguars as underdogs there should be high volume through the air.

Dallas Goedart | TE, PHI

$4,500

NYG D ranks 22nd in FPs allowed to TEs. Has a floor of 7.5 FPs over last six games while averaging 12.9 FPs per game over same time frame.

Daniel Jones | QB, NYG

$5,800

Has scored seven touchdowns in last three games with just one interception. Averaging 30.6 FPs per game over last three games. Has rushed for 169 yards over last two games.

Sunday Slate Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

Deebo Samuel I WR, SF

$5,400

Had 165 all purpose yards last week on nine targets and 3 carries. Averaging 10.5 opportunities per game over last four games. DAL D ranks 29th in league in FPs allowed to WRs.

Gabe Davis I WR, BUF

$4,800

Has seen 19 targets over last two games, with 23% of team's targets over last four games. Averaging 1.5 red zone opportunities per game over last four games.

Dawson Knox I TE, BUF

$3,800

Scored at least one touchdown in each of last five games. Floor of 9.3 FPs over last five games. CIN D ranks 11th in NFL in FPs allowed to TEs, which is the easiest TE matchup of Sunday's games.

How this works

Every week, we analyze three “under the radar” NFL DFS values from the early and afternoon slates on DraftKings. The goal being, to find players with more than a 40% chance of scoring four times their salary. That means a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)] x 4.

Among other things, we factor in:

  1. Only DraftKings players with salaries of $6,900 or less
  2. Team matchups
  3. Whether projected opportunities are sufficient to return 4x DFS value
  4. The Divisional Round NFL injury report for fantasy players.

Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s vital for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently.

Wild Card Round NFL DFS I “Under the Radar” Player Values

How to choose a DFS TE (Tight End) in 2023

The Marquee Matchups for January 14-16, 2023:

  • Chargers (10-7) at Jaguars (9-8) — With Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert leading the way, two of the league’s best young quarterbacks face off in what should be a high scoring battle in Jacksonville.
  • Giants (9-7-1) at Vikings (13-4) — Top receiver Justin Jefferson and his Minnesota Vikings will play host to a well rested Giants team who are in their first postseason since 2016.
  • Buccaneers (8-9) at Cowboys (12-5) — Brady will look to complete another deep playoff run as the Bucs head to Dallas to face a team that their quarterback has never lost to.

Biggest totals in Wild Card Round matchups:

There are no high scoring affairs predicted for Sunday’s games. Here are the four contests with the most scoring potential, based on the Vegas consensus.

Slate

Team

Spread

O/U

Line

Saturday Slate

LAC

-2

O 47.5

-135

@ JAX

+2

U 47.5

+115

SEA

+9.5

O 42.5

+400

@ SF

-9.5

U 42.5

-500

Sunday Slate

NYG

+3

O 48.5

+145

@ MIN

-3

U 48.5

-170

MIA

+13

O 43.5

+575

@ BUF

-13

U 43.5

-800

Under The Radar DFS Players

Below are bargain bin options for the Wild Card Round. (See methodology below)

Saturday Slate Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

Brock Purdy | QB, SF

$5,500

Floor of 16.5 FPs over last four games while averaging 17.5 FPs per game. At least two touchdowns per game in each of last four games. SEA D ranked 25th in league in points allowed per game.

Travis Ettienne Jr. | RB, JAX

$6,000

LAC D ranked 28th in the league against the run, allowing 145.8 rush yards per game. Had  11 red zone opportunities in last three games. Averaging 17 opportunities per game over last four games.

George Kittle | TE, SF

$5,900

Has scored seven touchdowns in last four games. SEA D ranks 32nd in NFL in FPs allowed to TEs. Has a median of seven opportunities per game over last four games.

Sunday Slate Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

Daniel Jones I QB, NYG

$5,600

MIN D ranked 31st in NFL in pass yards allowed per game and 30th in points allowed per game. Jones is coming off of a four touchdown performance and has compiled over 50 FPs in last two games.

T.J. Hockenson I TE, MIN

$5,100

Had seen 28 targets and 20 receptions over two games prior to Week 18 where MIN pulled their starters. NYG D ranks 22nd in NFL in FPs allowed to TEs.

Dawson Knox I TE, BUF

$4,000

Scored at least one touchdown in each of last four games. Floor of 9.3 FPs over last four games. Has 20% of team's targets over last four games.

How this works

Every week, we analyze three “under the radar” NFL DFS values from the early and afternoon slates on DraftKings. The goal being, to find players with more than a 40% chance of scoring four times their salary. That means a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)] x 4.

Among other things, we factor in:

  1. Only DraftKings players with salaries of $6,900 or less
  2. Team matchups
  3. Whether projected opportunities are sufficient to return 4x DFS value
  4. The Wild Card Round NFL injury report for fantasy players.

Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s vital for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently.

Week 18 NFL DFS I “Under the Radar” Player Values

The Marquee Matchups for January 8, 2023:

  • Rams (5-11) at Seahawks (8-8) — Geno Smith will look to wrap up his career year with a win in Seattle. If he pulls it out and the Lions win, the Seahawks will own the last NFC Wildcard berth.
  • Lions (8-8) at Packers (8-8) — If the Packers win they’re in no matter what happens in Seattle, while the Lions still have a chance at the postseason if the Seahawks falter.
  • Jets (7-9) at Dolphins (8-8) — With multiple QB injuries for Miami, the Jets will try to play spoiler against their AFC East Division rival.

Biggest totals in week 18’s Sunday matchups:

There are no high scoring affairs predicted for Sunday’s games. Here are the four contests with the most scoring potential, based on the Vegas consensus.

Slate

Team

Spread

O/U

Line

Early Slate

MIN

-7

O 43

-315

@ CHI

+7

U 43

+260

NE

+7

O 42.5

+260

@ BUF

-7

U 42.5

-315

Afternoon Slate

NYG

+14

O 43

+650

@ PHI

-14

U 43

-950

LAR

+6.5

O 41.5

+245

@ SEA

-6.5

U 41.5

-295

Under The Radar DFS Players

Below are bargain bin options for the NFL’s 18th week. (See methodology below)

Early Slate Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

T.J. Hockenson |  TE, MIN

$5,700

Has seen 28 targets and 20 receptions over last two games. CHI D ranks 25th in FPs allowed overall. This game features one of the highest O/U's of all games in the early slate.

Najee Harris |  RB, PIT

$6,100

CLE D ranks 29th in FPs allowed to RBs. Averaging 2.5 Red Zone opportunities per game over last seven games. Pittsburgh is still in the playoff hunt so there is little risk of Harris being benched.

Jakobi Meyers |  WR, NE

$5,100

BUF D ranks 23rd in FPs allowed to WRs. Has averaged a target share of 22.6% per game on season and leads team in both reception yards, reception TDs and targets.

Afternoon Slate Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

Tyler Higbee I TE, LAR

$4,400

SEA D ranks 32nd in FPs allowed to TEs. Higbee has scored three touchdowns over his last three games. Projected to lead Rams pass catchers in opportunities.

George Kittle I TE, SF

$6,000

Has scored five touchdowns in last three games. ARI D ranks 31st in FPs allowed to TEs. Averaging 18.8 FPs per game over last four games.

Ezekiel Elliott |  RB, DAL

$6,300

Has scored at least one touchdown in each of last nine games. At least 15 FPs in seven of last nine games with a floor of 9.7 FPs.

How this works

Every week, we analyze three “under the radar” NFL DFS values from the early and afternoon slates on DraftKings. The goal being, to find players with more than a 40% chance of scoring four times their salary. That means a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)] x 4.

Among other things, we factor in:

  1. Only DraftKings players with salaries of $6,900 or less
  2. Team matchups
  3. Whether projected opportunities are sufficient to return 4x DFS value
  4. The week 18 NFL injury report for fantasy players.

Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s vital for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently.

Week 17 NFL DFS I “Under the Radar” Player Values

The Marquee Matchups for January 1, 2023:

  • Jets (7-8) at Seahawks (7-8) — Mike White returns to the Jets with dreams of leading the team to an improbable playoff berth. He faces a Seattle squad that’s also fighting for its postseason life.
  • Panthers (6-9) at Buccaneers (7-8) — Tom Brady and company will look to stave off the surprisingly competitive Panthers in a battle of NFC South playoff hopefuls.
  • Vikings (12-3) at Packers (7-8) — Aaron Rodgers must turn back the clock if he hopes to overcome the NFC North champions and have a chance at the Wildcard.

Biggest totals in week 17:

The four games with the most scoring potential, based on the Vegas consensus.

Slate

Team

Spread

O/U

Line

Early Slate

CHI

+6

O 52

+220

@ DET

-6

U 52

-260

DEN

+13.5

O 45

+575

@ KC

-13.5

U 45

-800

Afternoon Slate

MIN

+3.5

O 48.5

+155

@ GB

-3.5

U 48.5

-180

SF

-6

O 45

-255

@ LV

+6

U 45

+215

Under The Radar DFS Players

Below are bargain bin options for the NFL’s 17th week. (See methodology below)

Early Slate Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

Tyler Allgeier |  RB, ATL

$5,300

Combined 259 all purpose yards over last two games. ARI D ranks 26th in FPs allowed to RBs. ARI D has let up a median of 24.5 PPG over their last four games.

Brian Robinson Jr. |  RB, WAS

$5,200

With a spread of -1.5, Robinson should get ample touches in what's expected to be a close game. He's had a median of 22 opportunities over last four games. Cleveland's D ranks 30th in FPs allowed to RBs.

Evan Engram |  TE, JAX

$4,400

40 targets over last four games. Averaging 17.8 FPs over last four games with a floor of 14 FPs. Averaging 112.3 YPG over last three games.

Afternoon Slate Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

Brock Purdy I QB, SF

5,500

Nine touchdowns and just two interceptions in last four games. OAK D ranks 27th in FPs allowed to QBs. Floor of 16.5 FPs in last three games.

Garret Wilson I WR, NYJ

$5,500

Has seen 40 targets over last four games with a target share of 26%. Averaging 111.7 YPG in last three games started by Mike White.

Cam Akers |  RB, LAR

$6,100

Has seen a median of 60% of team's rush attempts over last four games. LAC D ranks 28th in FPs allowed to RBs. Averaging 16 FPs  over last four games.

How this works

Every week, we analyze three “under the radar” NFL DFS values from the early and afternoon slates on DraftKings. The goal being, to find players with more than a 40% chance of scoring four times their salary. That means a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)] x 4.

Among other things, we factor in:

  1. Only DraftKings players with salaries of $6,900 or less
  2. Team matchups
  3. Whether projected opportunities are sufficient to return 4x DFS value
  4. The week 17 NFL injury report for fantasy players.

Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s vital for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently.

Week 16 NFL DFS I “Under the Radar” Player Values

The Marquee Matchups for December 24-25, 2022:

  • Commanders (7-6-1) at 49ers (10-4) — After two tough games against their division rivals, the Commanders will try to keep their playoff hopes alive in San Francisco.
  • Packers (6-8) at Dolphins (8-6) — A Christmas morning matchup that should present fans with one of the highest scoring games of Week 16.
  • Eagles (13-1) at Cowboys (10-4) — One of the biggest rivalries in the NFL will be reignited as the Eagles fly to Dallas to try and lock up the NFC East.

Biggest totals in week 16:

The four games with the most scoring potential, based on the Vegas consensus.

Slate

Team

Spread

O/U

Line

Early Slate

SEA

+10

O 49

+370

@ KC

-10

U 49

-460

NYG

+4.5

O 48.5

+185

@ MIN

-4.5

U 48.5

-215

Afternoon Slate

PHI

+5

O 47

+195

@ DAL

-5

U 47

-230

WAS

+7

O 38

+265

@ SF

-7

U 38

-320

Under The Radar DFS Players

Below are bargain bin options for the NFL’s 16th week. (See methodology below)

Early Slate Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

Jerick McKinnon |  RB, KC

$5,900

Scored five touchdowns in last three games. Targetted on 31% of his routes. Has seen 17 targets in last two games. SEA D ranks 31st in FPs allowed to RBs.

J.K. Dobbins |  RB, BAL

$5,800

Combined 245 rushing yards in last two games. Faces below-average ATL run D. Lamar Jackson remains hobbled, giving Dobbins more opportunity to run.

Rashid Shaheed |  WR, NO

$3,500

#1 WR with Olave and Landry out. Three straight weeks of yardage improvement, including 95 yards and a TD last week. Weather will be a factor in this game but his price and likely game script make him worth the gamble.

Afternoon Slate Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

DeVonta Smith  |  WR, PHI

$6,600

Averaging over 20 FP's over last three games. DAL D ranks 28th in FPs allowed to WRs.

Noah Brown  |  WR, DAL

$3,600

Philly's weak link is defending #3 receivers, DAL is favored at home and WR3 Brown is coming off a 9-target 2-TD performance.

Brock Purdy |  QB, SF

$5,500

Has seven touchdowns over last three games. WSH D ranks in the middle of the league (16th) against QBs.

Christmas Day Slate Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

Tom Brady  |  QB, TB

$6,100

Has a shot at being the best DFS QB on Christmas day. He's averaging 18.1 FP's over last four games. ARZ D ranks 26th in FPs allowed to QBs. Must win for Brady with Carolina owning the tie-breaker against Tampa in the playoff run.

Jerry Jeudy |  WR, DEN

$5,900

Has seen 17 targets over last two games. LAR D ranks 18th in FPss allowed WRs and 31st in DVOA to the #1 WR.

Christian Watson |  WR, GB

$6,000

Scored five touchdowns over last four games. Over 21 FPs in three of last four games. Faces a soft MIA pass defense.

How this works

Every week, we analyze three “under the radar” NFL DFS values from the early and afternoon slates on DraftKings. The goal being, to find players with more than a 40% chance of scoring four times their salary. That means a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)] x 4.

Among other things, we factor in:

  1. Only DraftKings players with salaries of $6,900 or less
  2. Team matchups
  3. Whether projected opportunities are sufficient to return 4x DFS value
  4. The week 16 NFL injury report for fantasy players.

Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s vital for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently.