Wild Card Round NFL DFS I “Under the Radar” Player Values

The Marquee Matchups for January 14-16, 2023:

  • Chargers (10-7) at Jaguars (9-8) — With Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert leading the way, two of the league’s best young quarterbacks face off in what should be a high scoring battle in Jacksonville.
  • Giants (9-7-1) at Vikings (13-4) — Top receiver Justin Jefferson and his Minnesota Vikings will play host to a well rested Giants team who are in their first postseason since 2016.
  • Buccaneers (8-9) at Cowboys (12-5) — Brady will look to complete another deep playoff run as the Bucs head to Dallas to face a team that their quarterback has never lost to.

Biggest totals in Wild Card Round matchups:

There are no high scoring affairs predicted for Sunday’s games. Here are the four contests with the most scoring potential, based on the Vegas consensus.

Slate

Team

Spread

O/U

Line

Saturday Slate

LAC

-2

O 47.5

-135

@ JAX

+2

U 47.5

+115

SEA

+9.5

O 42.5

+400

@ SF

-9.5

U 42.5

-500

Sunday Slate

NYG

+3

O 48.5

+145

@ MIN

-3

U 48.5

-170

MIA

+13

O 43.5

+575

@ BUF

-13

U 43.5

-800

Under The Radar DFS Players

Below are bargain bin options for the Wild Card Round. (See methodology below)

Saturday Slate Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

Brock Purdy | QB, SF

$5,500

Floor of 16.5 FPs over last four games while averaging 17.5 FPs per game. At least two touchdowns per game in each of last four games. SEA D ranked 25th in league in points allowed per game.

Travis Ettienne Jr. | RB, JAX

$6,000

LAC D ranked 28th in the league against the run, allowing 145.8 rush yards per game. Had  11 red zone opportunities in last three games. Averaging 17 opportunities per game over last four games.

George Kittle | TE, SF

$5,900

Has scored seven touchdowns in last four games. SEA D ranks 32nd in NFL in FPs allowed to TEs. Has a median of seven opportunities per game over last four games.

Sunday Slate Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

Daniel Jones I QB, NYG

$5,600

MIN D ranked 31st in NFL in pass yards allowed per game and 30th in points allowed per game. Jones is coming off of a four touchdown performance and has compiled over 50 FPs in last two games.

T.J. Hockenson I TE, MIN

$5,100

Had seen 28 targets and 20 receptions over two games prior to Week 18 where MIN pulled their starters. NYG D ranks 22nd in NFL in FPs allowed to TEs.

Dawson Knox I TE, BUF

$4,000

Scored at least one touchdown in each of last four games. Floor of 9.3 FPs over last four games. Has 20% of team's targets over last four games.

How this works

Every week, we analyze three “under the radar” NFL DFS values from the early and afternoon slates on DraftKings. The goal being, to find players with more than a 40% chance of scoring four times their salary. That means a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)] x 4.

Among other things, we factor in:

  1. Only DraftKings players with salaries of $6,900 or less
  2. Team matchups
  3. Whether projected opportunities are sufficient to return 4x DFS value
  4. The Wild Card Round NFL injury report for fantasy players.

Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s vital for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently.

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