The Marquee Matchups for January 21-22, 2023:
- Jaguars (10-8) at Chiefs (14-3) — Following a Wild Card comeback for the ages, Trevor Lawrence will look to keep up the magic against the fantasy juggernaut that is Pat Mahomes.
- Giants (10-7-1) at Eagles (14-3) — The NFC East is well represented in the Divisional Round as Saquon Barkley hopes to outrun a dangerous Philly offense.
- Cowboys (14-5) at 49ers (14-4) — The Dallas Cowboys will attempt to make it back to the NFC Championship game for the first time in over 25 years against an experienced San Francisco squad that was there just last season.
(Records shown include playoff games)
Vegas odds for the divisional round matchups:
The first game of the weekend is predicted to have the most scoring. Here are the four divisional contests and their Vegas lines.
SlateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... | Team | SpreadA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus point spread for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much the favorite will win by, and how much the underdog will lose by. A Spread of -7, for example, means the favorite is expected to win by 7 points. For more, see: | O/U | Line |
Saturday SlateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... | JAX | +8.5 | O 53 | +350 |
@ KC | -8.5 | U 53 | -435 | |
NYG | +7.5 | O 48 | +300 | |
@ PHI | -7.5 | U 48 | -365 | |
Sunday SlateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... | CIN | +5 | O 48.5 | +195 |
@ BUF | -5 | U 48.5 | -230 | |
DAL | +3.5 | O 46 | +160 | |
@ SF | -3.5 | U 46 | -190 |
Under The Radar DFS Players
Below are potential bargain bin options from the Divisional Round. (See methodology below)
Saturday Slate Value Plays
Player | Salary | Reasoning |
Christian Kirk | WR, JAX | $6,000 | Has seen 24 targets over last two games while scoring over 21 FPsFantasy points per game. KC D ranks 22nd in league in FPsFantasy points allowed to WRs. Game has spreadA DFS Hub field that equals the consensus point spread for the game at hand. It's Vegas's prediction of how much the favorite will win by, and how much the underdog will lose by. A Spread of -7, for example, means the favorite is expected to win by 7 points. For more, see: |
Dallas Goedart | TE, PHI | $4,500 | |
Daniel Jones | QB, NYG | $5,800 | Has scored seven touchdowns in last three games with just one interception. Averaging 30.6 FPsFantasy points per game over last three games. Has rushed for 169 yards over last two games. |
Sunday Slate Value Plays
Player | Salary | Reasoning |
Deebo Samuel I WR, SF | $5,400 | Had 165 all purpose yards last week on nine targets and 3 carries. Averaging 10.5 opportunities per game over last four games. DAL D ranks 29th in league in FPsFantasy points allowed to WRs. |
Gabe Davis I WR, BUF | $4,800 | Has seen 19 targets over last two games, with 23% of team's targets over last four games. Averaging 1.5 red zone opportunities per game over last four games. |
Dawson Knox I TE, BUF | $3,800 |
How this works
Every week, we analyze three “under the radar” NFL DFS values from the early and afternoon slates on DraftKings. The goal being, to find players with more than a 40% chance of scoring four times their salary. That means a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)]A DFS Hub field that equals a player's salary divided by $1,000. $4.8 [Sal($k)] equals $4,800, for example. It's a short form of salary to make comparing salaries easier. x 4.
Among other things, we factor in:
- Only DraftKings players with salaries of $6,900 or less
- Team matchups
- Whether projected opportunities are sufficient to return 4x DFS value
- The Divisional Round NFL injury report for fantasy players.
Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s vital for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently.
Cincy’s weak link is defending the #2 receiver so Davis could have a huge game IMO.