Divisional Round NFL DFS I “Under the Radar” Player Values

The Marquee Matchups for January 21-22, 2023:

  • Jaguars (10-8) at Chiefs (14-3) — Following a Wild Card comeback for the ages, Trevor Lawrence will look to keep up the magic against the fantasy juggernaut that is Pat Mahomes.
  • Giants (10-7-1) at Eagles (14-3) — The NFC East is well represented in the Divisional Round as Saquon Barkley hopes to outrun a dangerous Philly offense.
  • Cowboys (14-5) at 49ers (14-4) — The Dallas Cowboys will attempt to make it back to the NFC Championship game for the first time in over 25 years against an experienced San Francisco squad that was there just last season.

    (Records shown include playoff games)

Vegas odds for the divisional round matchups:

The first game of the weekend is predicted to have the most scoring. Here are the four divisional contests and their Vegas lines.

Slate

Team

Spread

O/U

Line

Saturday Slate

JAX

+8.5

O 53

+350

@ KC

-8.5

U 53

-435

NYG

+7.5

O 48

+300

@ PHI

-7.5

U 48

-365

Sunday Slate

CIN

+5

O 48.5

+195

@ BUF

-5

U 48.5

-230

DAL

+3.5

O 46

+160

@ SF

-3.5

U 46

-190

Under The Radar DFS Players

Below are potential bargain bin options from the Divisional Round. (See methodology below)

Saturday Slate Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

Christian Kirk | WR, JAX

$6,000

Has seen 24 targets over last two games while scoring over 21 FPs per game. KC D ranks 22nd in league in FPs allowed to WRs. Game has spread of 53 and with Jaguars as underdogs there should be high volume through the air.

Dallas Goedart | TE, PHI

$4,500

NYG D ranks 22nd in FPs allowed to TEs. Has a floor of 7.5 FPs over last six games while averaging 12.9 FPs per game over same time frame.

Daniel Jones | QB, NYG

$5,800

Has scored seven touchdowns in last three games with just one interception. Averaging 30.6 FPs per game over last three games. Has rushed for 169 yards over last two games.

Sunday Slate Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

Deebo Samuel I WR, SF

$5,400

Had 165 all purpose yards last week on nine targets and 3 carries. Averaging 10.5 opportunities per game over last four games. DAL D ranks 29th in league in FPs allowed to WRs.

Gabe Davis I WR, BUF

$4,800

Has seen 19 targets over last two games, with 23% of team's targets over last four games. Averaging 1.5 red zone opportunities per game over last four games.

Dawson Knox I TE, BUF

$3,800

Scored at least one touchdown in each of last five games. Floor of 9.3 FPs over last five games. CIN D ranks 11th in NFL in FPs allowed to TEs, which is the easiest TE matchup of Sunday's games.

How this works

Every week, we analyze three “under the radar” NFL DFS values from the early and afternoon slates on DraftKings. The goal being, to find players with more than a 40% chance of scoring four times their salary. That means a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)] x 4.

Among other things, we factor in:

  1. Only DraftKings players with salaries of $6,900 or less
  2. Team matchups
  3. Whether projected opportunities are sufficient to return 4x DFS value
  4. The Divisional Round NFL injury report for fantasy players.

Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s vital for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently.

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