Week 16 NFL DFS I “Under the Radar” Player Values

The Marquee Matchups for December 24-25, 2022:

  • Commanders (7-6-1) at 49ers (10-4) — After two tough games against their division rivals, the Commanders will try to keep their playoff hopes alive in San Francisco.
  • Packers (6-8) at Dolphins (8-6) — A Christmas morning matchup that should present fans with one of the highest scoring games of Week 16.
  • Eagles (13-1) at Cowboys (10-4) — One of the biggest rivalries in the NFL will be reignited as the Eagles fly to Dallas to try and lock up the NFC East.

Biggest totals in week 16:

The four games with the most scoring potential, based on the Vegas consensus.

Slate

Team

Spread

O/U

Line

Early Slate

SEA

+10

O 49

+370

@ KC

-10

U 49

-460

NYG

+4.5

O 48.5

+185

@ MIN

-4.5

U 48.5

-215

Afternoon Slate

PHI

+5

O 47

+195

@ DAL

-5

U 47

-230

WAS

+7

O 38

+265

@ SF

-7

U 38

-320

Under The Radar DFS Players

Below are bargain bin options for the NFL’s 16th week. (See methodology below)

Early Slate Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

Jerick McKinnon |  RB, KC

$5,900

Scored five touchdowns in last three games. Targetted on 31% of his routes. Has seen 17 targets in last two games. SEA D ranks 31st in FPs allowed to RBs.

J.K. Dobbins |  RB, BAL

$5,800

Combined 245 rushing yards in last two games. Faces below-average ATL run D. Lamar Jackson remains hobbled, giving Dobbins more opportunity to run.

Rashid Shaheed |  WR, NO

$3,500

#1 WR with Olave and Landry out. Three straight weeks of yardage improvement, including 95 yards and a TD last week. Weather will be a factor in this game but his price and likely game script make him worth the gamble.

Afternoon Slate Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

DeVonta Smith  |  WR, PHI

$6,600

Averaging over 20 FP's over last three games. DAL D ranks 28th in FPs allowed to WRs.

Noah Brown  |  WR, DAL

$3,600

Philly's weak link is defending #3 receivers, DAL is favored at home and WR3 Brown is coming off a 9-target 2-TD performance.

Brock Purdy |  QB, SF

$5,500

Has seven touchdowns over last three games. WSH D ranks in the middle of the league (16th) against QBs.

Christmas Day Slate Value Plays

Player

Salary

Reasoning

Tom Brady  |  QB, TB

$6,100

Has a shot at being the best DFS QB on Christmas day. He's averaging 18.1 FP's over last four games. ARZ D ranks 26th in FPs allowed to QBs. Must win for Brady with Carolina owning the tie-breaker against Tampa in the playoff run.

Jerry Jeudy |  WR, DEN

$5,900

Has seen 17 targets over last two games. LAR D ranks 18th in FPss allowed WRs and 31st in DVOA to the #1 WR.

Christian Watson |  WR, GB

$6,000

Scored five touchdowns over last four games. Over 21 FPs in three of last four games. Faces a soft MIA pass defense.

How this works

Every week, we analyze three “under the radar” NFL DFS values from the early and afternoon slates on DraftKings. The goal being, to find players with more than a 40% chance of scoring four times their salary. That means a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)] x 4.

Among other things, we factor in:

  1. Only DraftKings players with salaries of $6,900 or less
  2. Team matchups
  3. Whether projected opportunities are sufficient to return 4x DFS value
  4. The week 16 NFL injury report for fantasy players.

Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s vital for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently.

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