Offensive injuries can torpedo a DFS lineup, while defensive injuries can ignite an opponent’s offense faster than a 4th of July rocket. So, before you lock in those rosters, get a leg up with DFS Hub’s Week 3: NFL Defense Injuries and Sharp Bettor Report.
Roll this week’s highlights (60 seconds):
Week 3 is another feast fit for a contrarian king. Below, you’ll find under-the-radar jewels sprinkled with handfuls of backups and high-value props. It all kicks off with three NFL games that scream fantasy production.
(Note: This DFS cheat sheet is handcrafted specifically for Sunday’s “main slate” DraftKings contest.)
In Week 2, DFS Hub is serving up another four-course meal of contrarian picks, backup gems, and high-value props, led off by our house selection of NFL games to target.
(Note: This DFS cheat sheet is handcrafted specifically for Sunday’s “main slate” DraftKings contest.)
Here’s a trio of matchups with the potential to rain fantasy points like confetti at a Mardi Gras parade.
Don’t forget to enter this week’s free NFL DFS contest for cash!
DFS Hub is pleased, but not overly excited (we’re keeping it cool), to unveil its brand new Free NFL DFS Contest.
Compete each week to receive a free DFS Hub Season Pass to the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place finishers.
Not only are you not breaking the bank to enter this contest, you’re not even going to the bank. It’s 100% free with no strings attached!
Joining is as easy as winning a coin toss:
The first contest kicks off in week 1, but feel free to be the early bird that gets the cash … by entering today.
Monitor your can’t-miss lineup here: NFL DFS Contest Standings
A trilogy of reasons:
As a 100% free contest, we’re not aiming to outshine DraftKings, the true king. It offers way more contests with far bigger payouts. We’re more of a warm-up band to their rock star – helping you perfect your moves so you can rock the big stage.
Instead of flashy ads, we like to invest in our users. That way, our community gets better, can enter more DraftKings tournaments—with more confidence—and take down even bigger prizes.
Plus, we’re humbly hoping you’ll tell your friends about our noble endeavor.
And one last tidbit: DFS Hub offers a slew of stats, strategies, and tools to boost your weekly odds of victory. So, before embarking on your lineup-building mission, check out these NFL DFS Tips. They’re like having a secret playbook without the secret part.
Whether you’re a fantasy football savant or still figuring out what “DFS” stands for, leverage the Free NFL DFS Contest and move from first string to MVP.
Ever felt like understanding PFF Grades was like deciphering ancient runes? Well, put away the archeologist’s hat, because turning those cryptic PFF Grades into a winning NFL DFS lineup is more straightforward than a quarterback’s throw to an open receiver.
There’s an endless sea of talented NFL players to pick from when building your roster. Harnessing Pro Football Focus Player Grades can be the difference maker needed to get you into the winner’s circle. The video below gives you a basic playbook.
Pro members can exploit PFF grades right away by creating player filters in DFS Hub’s NFL Lineup Builder (screenshot below).
Simply load the PFF fields into the Player List, then sort or filter as smoothly as a star running back dodges tackles.
This example above shows wide receivers and three PFF grades:
The highlighted player in the screenshot above shows how PFF grades excel at finding low-cost, low-owned highly-skilled players.
Pro Tip: You don’t want to roster just any cheap, talented player with a high PFF grade. After all, a lot of skilled players see little playing time. The key is waiting for the right matchup or opportunity. For example, look for situations where another player of his position is injured or not performing well. It’s even better if your bargain bin player has seen a recent uptick in reps in practice or action on the field.
If you’re hungry for a meatier overview of how Pro Football Focus Player Grades can enhance your DraftKings or FanDuel entries, this PFF Grades guide is waiting on the sideline. Think of it as a personal coaching session, without the angry halftime speeches.
The NFL Draft has a rich history of supplying rookies that make a DFS impact, right out of the gate.
Sometimes first-round picks boost their teams’ fortunes right away, making Pro Bowls and earning Rookie of the Year honors while they’re at it. Cam Newton (2011, 1st overall) Odell Beckham Jr. (2014, 12th overall) and Ezekiel Elliott (2016, 4th overall) are just a handful of examples.
Today we’ll look at first-rounders from the 2023 NFL Draft, specifically those who could yield DFS value early in the season. We’ll review all four offensive skill positions to find the rookies that could return surplus DFS [Value].
Value, in this context, refers to DraftKings fantasy points divided by the player’s DraftKings salary. Aiding in this endeavor is DFS Hub’s WhichStatMatters page. If you haven’t seen it yet, check out the infinitely different ways in which the WhichStatMatters page ranks DFS performance.
For the 2022-23 season, starting quarterbacks generated an average of 17.2 fantasy points per game at an average DraftKings salary of $6k ($6,000).
Do a little division (17.2 / 6) and, the typical starting quarterback provided 2.8 times their salary last season.
There are two high-probability QBs that could exceed that value in the 2023-24 NFL campaign:
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers – The first overall pick out of Alabama will be an early favorite to be crowned the 2023 Rookie of the Year. Despite the paltry offense fielded by the Panthers last season, Young will have newly added veteran wide receiver Adam Thielen to rely on. The rookie QB will also be joined by running back Miles Sanders, who comes over from the Philadelphia Eagles. On top of that is another important new face in former Rams coach Thomas Brown, who will be Young’s offensive coordinator.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans – Stroud is a pure pocket passer which may limit some of his DFS upside, but he should be able to make up for it with pinpoint accuracy and limited turnovers. With Dalton Schultz making the move from Dallas to Houston, the rookie quarterback will have a trustworthy tight end to dump off passes to. Schultz supplements wideouts Robert Woods and Nico Collins. Talented young running back Dameon Pierce is also in the mix for Stroud, if he finds himself in trouble. Perhaps most importantly, Houston has beefed up its O-line, both in the draft and via free agency.
Last year, starting running backs (those first on Depth Chart) had an average of 14.5 fantasy points per game and an average $6,500 salary on DraftKings. That meant the typical starting running back yielded 2.2 times their salary last season.
Here are two rookie halfbacks that could easily exceed that figure throughout their rookie year:
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions – The biggest downside to Gibbs in the Lions backfield was D’Andre Swift. That problem is solved with Swift being quickly traded after the draft. The Lions shocked draft watchers by scooping up Gibbs with their 12th overall pick, and they won’t be disappointed. While not a brute back, he’s a fast accelerating runner with moves and a talented receiver. Running behind one of the best lines in football, he’ll have every opportunity to fill up the stat sheet come September. And his price may be reasonable too, given he’ll split time with Montgomery.
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons – It’s hard not to be excited about a player with comps to Saquon Barkley. Robinson is electric. He catches the ball and runs with the patience and ferocity that makes it hard for just one defender to take him down. While the Falcons didn’t necessarily need a running back, Robinson is considered by many to be a can’t-miss prospect. He’ll enter the league with the same gusto that Barkley did back in 2018 and get all the touches he can handle.
For the 2022 season, starting wide receivers (those first and second on the depth chart) had an average of 12.2 fantasy points per game at an average DraftKings salary of $5,700. This means that, on average, a starting wide receiver returned 2.1 times their salary.
Both Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson came out of the 2022 NFL Draft on fire. Here are two more pass catchers that could do the same in 2023:
Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks – With the 20th pick of the draft, the Seahawks have given QB Geno Smith another big-time weapon. This shows they’re invested in Smith and, in turn, trust that Smith-Njigba will contribute right away. The rookie WR can play in the slot or on the outside, allowing him plenty of routes alongside DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens – Between injuries and underperformances, the Ravens didn’t have any sure things at the wide receiver position. Flowers will see his fair share of targets alongside Odell and Rashod Bateman. He has a history of making good use of those targets with an impressive YAC. Look for Flowers to be a high-impact player for Lamar Jackson in the slot.
This past year, starting tight ends had an average of 8.5 fantasy points per game and an average DraftKings salary of $3,900. On average, a starting tight end provided 2.1 times their salary in DK points.
Historically, first-year tight ends have had a tough time making an immediate fantasy impact in comparison to other skill positions. And with only one TE taken in the first round this year, all eyes will be on one rookie.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills – While the Buffalo Bills already have a dependable tight end in Dawson Knox, the Bills couldn’t pass up Dalton Kincaid, far and away the best tight end in the draft. While Kincaid joins an already-packed offense filled with big-time pieces, Kincaid will get his chances. Moreover, he’s capable of making the most of them with sticky hands and burst-speed that create separation. Expect him to have a low DFS salary early in the season and, as such, a high chance at providing great value in the right matchups.
For more tips and assistance on both rookies and veteran players, utilize our Free NFL DFS Lineup Builder throughout the football season.
February 12, 2023 — 6:30 p.m. ET:
The Chiefs (16-3) are underdogs as they meet the Eagles (16-3) in Super Bowl LVII. That could be all the motivation Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the Chiefs need to grab their second championship ring of the 2020s. They face off against Jalen Hurts and a hard-hitting Eagles defense, one that led the NFL in sacks by a wide margin.
(Records shown include playoff games)
Vegas odds for Super Bowl LVII:
As of Saturday, here’s the Vegas consensus for Super Bowl LVII.
Slate | Team | Spread | O/U | Line |
Super Bowl Odds | KC | +1.5 | O 51 | +105 |
@ PHI | -1.5 | U 51 | -125 |
Below are potential bargain bin options from the Super Bowl. (See methodology below)
Player | Salary | Reasoning |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR, KC | $6,200 | Has scored a touchdown in both of KC’s postseason games. Target percentage of 18% over last four games. Scored a season high 26.6 FPs in AFC Championship game. |
Harrison Butker | | $4,000 | Averaging 11 FPs per game over last three games with 13 FPs in both postseason games. Has hit all five field goal attempts this postseason. |
Kadarius Toney | | $5,200 | Has at least 10 FPs in three of last four games. With Mecole Hardman out, Toney should see an increase in targets and should continue to see red zone opportunities. |
Player | Salary | Reasoning |
Kenneth Gainwell I RB, PHI | $5,000 | Averaging 10 opportunities per game over last four games and received more carries than Miles Sanders in NFC Championship game, including three red zone opportunities. Had 14 carries and three targets in NFC Championship game. Has scored 31.5 FPs in two postseason games. |
Dallas Goedert I TE, PHI | $6,400 | KC D ranks 23rd in FPs allowed to TEs. Averaging six targets per game over last four games with a target percentage of 20%. |
Boston Scott I | $3,000 | Has scored a touchdown in each of the last three games. Averaging 9.6 FPs per game over last three games with a floor of 8.1 FPs. |
Every week, we analyze three “under the radar” NFL DFS values from the early and afternoon slates on DraftKings. The goal is to find players with more than a 40% chance of scoring four times their salary. That means a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)] x 4.
Among other things, we factor in:
Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s vital for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently.
Today we’re looking back on the 103rd season of the National Football League, highlighting some of the greatest DFS scoring performances relative to player salaries.
We’ll review all four offensive skill positions to find the year’s most impressive performances, as measure by the [Value] field. Value is basically DraftKings fantasy points divided by the player’s DraftKings salary. Aiding in this endeavor is DFS Hub’s WhichStatMatters page, which ranks DFS performances in infinitely different ways.
We start with the men behind center…
Quarterbacks
For the 2022-23 season, starting quarterbacks had an average of 17.2 fantasy points per game and an average DraftKings salary of $6k ($6,000).
Do a little division (17.2 / 6) and, on average, a starting quarterback provided 2.8 times their salary. Here were some standouts…
Justin Fields in Week 9 – The quarterback of the Chicago Bears dropped 45.7 FPs on the Miami Dolphins with a salary of just $5,300. Thanks in large part to a regular season record 176 rushing yards, Fields’ performance was good enough to provide DFS players with a massive fantasy payday. All told, he scored a stunning 8.6 times his salary.
Tua Tagovailoa in Week 2 – In what was a massive statement victory for Tua and the Miami Dolphins, the quarterback tallied 43.9 FPs against the Baltimore Ravens, with a salary of $5,600. Scoring six touchdowns on the day helped Tua hit 7.8 times his salary. His 469 passing yards on the day were the second most for a player in the 2022 season.
Taysom Hill in Week 5 – Once a secret weapon for the Saints, Hill continued to grow his legacy in New Orleans. The tight end/quarterback hybrid scored 37.1 FPs against the Seattle Seahawks, thanks mostly to his 122 rushing yards and four touchdowns. With a salary of $4,900, Hill smashed 7.6 times his salary while running for over 12 yards per carry.
Running Backs
For the season, starting running backs (those first on Depth Chart) had an average of 14.5 fantasy points per game and an average DraftKings salary of $6,500. On average, that meant a starting running back yielded 2.2 times their salary this season.
Joe Mixon in Week 9 – Nobody had a better DFS performance than Joe Mixon this season, whose 58.1 FPs on a salary of $6,500 were good for 8.9 times the running back’s salary. With over 200 all purpose yards and five touchdowns against the Carolina Panthers, Mixon led both the Bengals and thousands of DFS players to victory.
Cam Akers in Week 16 – After providing one of the least valuable outings of the season for any player in Week 1, Akers turned things around in Week 16 with 37.7 FPs on a salary of $5,200. While this wasn’t among the top five fantasy performances for a running back this season in terms of FPs, it was the second best in terms of value—with Akers generating 7.3 times his salary.
Jose Jacobs in Week 4 – While his 37.5 FPs were not even his most points scored this season, this performance against the Broncos was actually more valuable than his two other games with more FPs. Due to a salary of just $5,500, Jacobs was able to score 6.8 times his salary and give those who drafted him a massive edge.
Wide Receivers
For the season, starting wide receivers (those first and second on the depth chart) had an average of 12.2 fantasy points per game at an average DraftKings salary of $5,700. This means that, on average, a starting wide receiver returned 2.1 times their salary.
Mack Hollins in Week 3 – With a salary of only $3,300, you can understand why Hollins and his 33 FPs provided DFS players with one of the most valuable performances of the season. Thanks to 158 yards and a touchdown, Hollins ended his day scoring 10.0 times his salary. Too bad it was in a losing effort for his Raiders.
Christian Watson in Week 10 – An up and down season for Watson and the Packers peaked against Dallas as the wide receiver scored 35.7 FPs to go alongside a salary of $3,700. Despite only four receptions, the rookie had 107 yards and three touchdowns while scoring 9.6 times his salary.
Mike Evans in Week 17 – While Hollins and Watson came as more of a surprise due to their lower salaries, it’s never a shock to see Evans providing DFS value. With 207 yards through the air and three touchdowns, Evans helped Tom Brady fill out his record book one more time as the receiver scored a massive 51.7 FPs with a salary of $6,500. This was the definitive wide receiver performance this season as Evans scored 8.0 times his salary.
Tight Ends
This year starting tight ends had an average of 8.5 fantasy points per game and an average DraftKings salary of $3,900. On average, a starting tight end provided 2.1 times their salary.
Evan Engram in Week 14 – Thanks to Engram scoring a colossal 12.8 times his salary in this contest, the Jaguars tight end had the most valuable DFS performance of the season for any offensive player. With 42.2 FPs on a meager $3,300 salary, that’s enough to earn Engram the title of DFS MVP for 2022-23. This game was a career day for Engram, who had a season high 11 receptions, 162 yards and two touchdowns.
T.J. Hockenson in Week 4 – From Detroit to Minnesota, the well traveled tight end had a handful of incredibly valuable DFS outings. None greater however came than in Week 4, when Hockenson provided a performance that saw 42.9 FPs on a salary of $4,100, scoring 10.5 times his salary. With 179 yards and a couple of touchdowns, it was the strongest game for a tight end this season.
Mo Allie-Cox in Week 4 – Between Allie-Cox and Hockenson, Week 4 was the week of the tight end. Allie-Cox had a paltry salary of $2,700 and, for one week at least, proved evaluators wrong by scoring 26.5 FPs. His two touchdowns on the day were more than Allie-Cox had the rest of the season combined, and as a result of finding the end zone twice he scored 9.8 times his salary.
The 2022-23 NFL season featured a multitude of major DFS performances across all positions. Quarterbacks provided the highest amount of value in regards to their salary, with the average QB providing 2.8 times their salary. Meanwhile, several tight ends individually provided the greatest value in single game efforts. Using our WhichStatMatters page in next year’s NFL season could help you discover these trends, and the data that predict them…. potentially increasing your winning percentage.
The Marquee Matchups for January 29, 2023:
Vegas odds for the Conference Championship Round matchups:
Here are the two Conference Championship contests and their Vegas lines.
Slate | Team | Spread | O/U | Line |
Conference Championship Slate | CIN | -1.5 | O 46.5 | -130 |
@ KC | +1.5 | U 46.5 | +110 | |
SF | +2.5 | O 46 | +125 | |
@ PHI | -2.5 | U 46 | -145 |
Below are potential bargain bin options from the Conference Championship Round. (See methodology below)
Player | Salary | Reasoning |
Dallas Goedert | TE, PHI | $4,100 | Has seen a target percentage of 19% over last four games. Averaging 10.1 FPs over last four games with only one game under 9.7 points over last seven games. Has seen 18 targets over last three games. |
Elijah Mitchell | RB, SF | $4,900 | Averaging 10.5 opportunities and 2 red zone opportunities per game over last four games. PHI D ranks 17th in NFL in FPs allowed to RBs. |
George Kittle | TE, SF | $5,200 | Leads all tight ends in receiving yards this postseason with 132 yards. Target percentage of 20% over last four games while averaging 5.5 opportunities. Only one game under 12.3 FPs over last six games. |
Player | Salary | Reasoning |
Kenneth Gainwell I RB, PHI | $5,000 | Averaging 10 opportunities per game over last four games and received more carries than Miles Sanders in NFC Championship game, including three red zone opportunities. Had 14 carries and three targets in NFC Championship game. Has scored 31.5 FPs in two postseason games. |
Dallas Goedert I TE, PHI | $6,400 | KC D ranks 23rd in FPs allowed to TEs. Averaging six targets per game over last four games with a target percentage of 20%. |
Boston Scott I | $3,000 | Has scored a touchdown in each of the last three games. Averaging 9.6 FPs per game over last three games with a floor of 8.1 FPs. |
How this works
Every week, we analyze three “under the radar” NFL DFS values from the early and afternoon slates on DraftKings. The goal being, to find players with more than a 40% chance of scoring four times their salary. That means a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)] x 4.
Among other things, we factor in:
Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s vital for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently.
The Marquee Matchups for January 21-22, 2023:
Vegas odds for the divisional round matchups:
The first game of the weekend is predicted to have the most scoring. Here are the four divisional contests and their Vegas lines.
Slate | Team | Spread | O/U | Line |
Saturday Slate | JAX | +8.5 | O 53 | +350 |
@ KC | -8.5 | U 53 | -435 | |
NYG | +7.5 | O 48 | +300 | |
@ PHI | -7.5 | U 48 | -365 | |
Sunday Slate | CIN | +5 | O 48.5 | +195 |
@ BUF | -5 | U 48.5 | -230 | |
DAL | +3.5 | O 46 | +160 | |
@ SF | -3.5 | U 46 | -190 |
Below are potential bargain bin options from the Divisional Round. (See methodology below)
Player | Salary | Reasoning |
Christian Kirk | WR, JAX | $6,000 | Has seen 24 targets over last two games while scoring over 21 FPs per game. KC D ranks 22nd in league in FPs allowed to WRs. Game has spread of 53 and with Jaguars as underdogs there should be high volume through the air. |
Dallas Goedart | TE, PHI | $4,500 | NYG D ranks 22nd in FPs allowed to TEs. Has a floor of 7.5 FPs over last six games while averaging 12.9 FPs per game over same time frame. |
Daniel Jones | QB, NYG | $5,800 | Has scored seven touchdowns in last three games with just one interception. Averaging 30.6 FPs per game over last three games. Has rushed for 169 yards over last two games. |
Player | Salary | Reasoning |
Deebo Samuel I WR, SF | $5,400 | Had 165 all purpose yards last week on nine targets and 3 carries. Averaging 10.5 opportunities per game over last four games. DAL D ranks 29th in league in FPs allowed to WRs. |
Gabe Davis I WR, BUF | $4,800 | Has seen 19 targets over last two games, with 23% of team's targets over last four games. Averaging 1.5 red zone opportunities per game over last four games. |
Dawson Knox I TE, BUF | $3,800 | Scored at least one touchdown in each of last five games. Floor of 9.3 FPs over last five games. CIN D ranks 11th in NFL in FPs allowed to TEs, which is the easiest TE matchup of Sunday's games. |
How this works
Every week, we analyze three “under the radar” NFL DFS values from the early and afternoon slates on DraftKings. The goal being, to find players with more than a 40% chance of scoring four times their salary. That means a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)] x 4.
Among other things, we factor in:
Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s vital for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently.
