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Week 10 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet – 2023

The Week 10 NFL DFS schedule reads like a Hollywood script, filled to the brim with high-stakes pre-playoff showdowns. We’ve got a lineup of matchups and gridiron gladiators.

But before we pull on our virtual helmets and dive headfirst into the player pit, let’s spotlight three heavyweight clashes with high scoring potential.

Shootouts Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

  1. Detroit Lions (-1.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (+1.5) – O/U 48.5
    • The Chargers have a DvPL4 of 32.6 against WRs which is good news for a red-hot Amon-Ra St. Brown.
    • St. Brown has eclipsed 100 yards receiving in five of his last six games.
    • Detroit has given up yardage on the ground the last couple of weeks (113 ypg) which bodes well for Austin Ekeler.
  2. Houston Texans (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) – O/U 46.5
    • CJ Stroud just had a historic outing that saw the rookie pass for 470 yards and 5 TDs.
    • Joe Burrow has been on fire during his team’s four-game winning streak and has just one game under 25 fantasy points.
    • Cincinnati runners have a favorable matchup as the Texans are bottom 10 in the NFL in FPs allowed to RBs.
  3. Washington Commanders (+6.0) at Seattle Seahawks (-6.0) – O/U 45.5
    • The Seahawks have given up 57 points across the last two weeks while the Commanders have scored 51.
    • Sam Howell has thrown for 722 yards in his last two games and could continue to do damage through the air against a faltering Seattle D.
    • While the Seahawks only mustered 3 points in Week 9, they’re facing a Washington D ranked 30th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and WRs.

Contrarian Corner: 3 Under-the-Radar Players to Watch

  1. Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers, $4,900
    • Harris has lost carries to Jaylen Warren this season, but the Pittsburgh RB has made the most of his opportunities with an average of 14 FPs per game across his last three.
    • The Packers are ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
    • Harris has a TD in two of the last three weeks.
  2. Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans, $4,900
    • After duds in the first three weeks of the season, Schultz has just one game under 13 FP in his last five.
    • Schultz is coming off of a massive 130 yard performance and could keep things rolling against the Bengals and their DvPL4 of 17 against tight ends.
    • Schultz has a Tgt%L4 of 26%.
  3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks, $4,100
    • Geno Smith barely threw over 150 yards in Week 9, with 63 of those yards going to Smith-Njigba.
    • Smith-Njigba has a solid floor of 12.3 fantasy points in his last three outings.
    • The Commanders are ranked 30th in the NFL in FPs given up to wide receivers.

(Photo by Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire)

Backup Brilliance: 3 Fill-in Players With Splash Potential

  1. Joshua Dobbs, QB, Minnesota Vikings, $5,500
    • Dobbs replaced two Minnesota QBs in Week 9 and provided the Vikings with a big comeback victory.
    • In his first game with Minnesota, Dobbs scored three TDs while chipping in 66 rushing yards.
    • The veteran backup has averaged 20 FPs per game across his last four contests.
  2. Daniel Bellinger, TE, New York Giants, $3,000
    • With Waller out in Week 9, Bellinger was able to grab three catches for 43 yards.
    • While the numbers aren’t great, Bellinger was second in yardage for the Giants last week.
    • The Cowboys are ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
  3. Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings, $5,500
    • Cam Akers was unfortunately carted off the field midgame in Week 9 which leaves Mattison without much competition.
    • Mattison finished the game with a touchdown and a big 47-yard reception.
    • The Minnesota halfback is projected to get 18 opportunities in Week 10 which should give him plenty of chances to contribute.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

  1. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals, $6,200
    • Lowest [TDCost] and a -171 prop line
  2. Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers, $4,900
    • Second lowest [TDCost] and a +115 prop line
  3. Devin Singletary, RB, Houston Texans, $4,700
    • Third lowest [TDCost] and a +135 prop line
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Week 9 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet – 2023

If you’re trying to man your NFL lineups with unsung heroes at bargain prices, you’ve come to the right place. The cheat sheet that follows is a laundry list of week 9 NFL Players set to deliver in fantasy.

But before you check out those potential hits, let’s run through three marquee DFS matchups…

Shootouts Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

  1. Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) – O/U 44.0
    • The Ravens are averaging 31 points per game during their three game winning streak.
    • Baltimore has rushed for over 120 yards in each of their last four games.
    • The Seattle D ranks 25th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers which bodes will for the Baltimore pass catchers.
  2. Dallas Cowboys (+3.0) at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.0) – O/U 46.0
    • The Eagles D is ranked in the bottom 10 in FPs allowed to every offensive position other than running back.
    • With 6 TDs and just 1 INT in his last two games, Dak Prescott especially could exploit the Philly D.
    • Even if Prescott stays hot on O, the Eagles will surely keep up thanks to a matchup proof AJ Brown and his 27.9 FPs per game across his last four.
  3. Indianapolis Colts (-3.0) at Carolina Panthers (+3.0) – O/U 44.0
    • Both teams are bottom 5 in the league in fantasy points allowed to running backs, with the Panthers ranking dead last.
    • The Panthers have been paltry on offense, but the Indy D is allowing an average of 38 ppg across their last three.
    • Adam Thielen has been the lone brightspot for the Panthers, with a floor of 15 FPs since Week 2.

Contrarian Corner: 3 Under-the-Radar Players to Watch

  1. Taysom Hill, TE, New Orleans Saints, $4,700
    • The gadget tight end is always a coinflip, but has had a floor of 12.3 fantasy points over his last three games.
    • Hill is coming off of his best game of the season in which he lead the Saints in rushing yards while scoring 2 TDs.
    • The Bears are in the bottom half of the league in FPs allowed to every position, so no matter where Hill is on the field he’ll have opportunities to take advantage.
  2. Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns, $5,300
    • Ford’s ankle is still banged up but prior to Week 8’s dud the Cleveland back was averaging 16.8 fantasy points per game from Week 2 to Week 7.
    • Arizona is all the way down at 30th in the NFL in FPs allowed to running backs.
    • The Cardinals have a DvPL4 of 22.1 fantasy points.
  3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks, $4,300
    • The Baltimore D ranks second in the league in FPs allowed WRs, but with the focus on Lockett and Metcalf, the rookie wideout could take advantage of his opportunities.
    • Smith-Njigba has a TD in each of his last two games and has been getting red zone looks.
(Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

Backup Brilliance: 3 Fill-in Players With Splash Potential

  1. Demario Douglas, WR, New England Patriots $4,000
    • Douglas led the Pats in receptions in Week 8 and should get more opportunities with Bourne out.
    • Over the last two games, Bourne has 13 targets and a Tgt%L4 of 20%.
    • The Washington D is ranked 31st in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
  2. Darius Slayton, WR, New York Giants, $3,200
  3. Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals, $3,700
    • McBride has filled in nicely for the injured Zach Ertz, scoring 25.5 FPs in Week 8.
    • The backup tight end saw a whopping 14 targets last week and pulled in 10 catches.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

  1. Devin Singletary, RB, Houston Texans, $4,300
    • Houston’s lead back in week 9 features the lowest [TD Cost] on the slate.
  2. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts, $6,400
    • Taylor’s low TD Cost is coupled with the best TD prop line (-132) on the slate; facing the worst run-D in CAR.
  3. David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns, $3,800
    • Low TD Cost plus 9 receptions for 131 yards and a TD over his past two games.

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Week 8 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet – 2023

Week 8’s Main slate gives us another round of games with modest scoring projections, but for those looking to pluck some DFS treats, there remains a few sweet matchups.

Shootouts Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

  1. New England Patriots (+9.5) at Miami Dolphins (-9.5) – O/U 47.0
    • New England’s O scored more points last week than they have in the last three weeks combined.
    • Mac Jones may keep that positive momentum going against a Miami D ranked 28th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to QBs.
    • Tyreek Hill is averaging nearly 129 yards per game and has scored at least 25 FPs in each of the last three games.
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (-8.0) at Denver Broncos (+8.0) – O/U 46.0
    • Patrick Mahomes and the KC scorers will be salivating over a Denver D ranked bottom-10 in FPs allowed to every offensive position.
    • Kansas City’s backs love that Denver sits at the bottom of the NFL in fantasy points given up to RBs.
    • The Broncos have a median of 127 rushing yards across their last four games so they’ll try to get things going on the ground.
  3. Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) – O/U 45.5
    • George Kittle will have his best matchup all season as Cincinnati comes in with a 14.3 DvPL4 vs TEs.
    • Both teams are looking to get their offenses back on track after mustering just 17 points each in Week 7.
    • After a slow start to the season, Ja’Marr Chase is averaging 121.5 ypg across his last four games.

Contrarian Corner: 3 Under-the-Radar Players to Watch

  1. Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers, $4,900
    • Doubs fell out of favor after mustering just 4 yards in Week 6, but rebounded nicely in Week 7.
    • In half his games this season, Doubs has scored at least 18 fantasy points.
    • The Vikings have a DvPL4 of 31.0 so Doubs should get his share of scoring opportunities.
  2. Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns, $4,100
    • While Moore hasn’t done much this season, he has seen 7 targets in each of the last two games to go along with some rushing opportunities.
    • The Seattle secondary has been nearly nonexistent lately, with a DvPL4 of 35.3.
    • Moore has a Tgt%L4 of 20% so he could take advantage of a Seattle D ranked 28th in FPs allowed to wide receivers.
  3. Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles, $4,600
    • The Philly tight end is facing a Washington D ranked 25th in the league in FPs allowed to TEs.
    • After scoring less than 9 FPs in each game to start the year, Goedert has taken his game to the next level, averaging 18.7 fantasy ppg from Week 5 to Week 7.
    • Goedert has 22 targets in his last three games.
(Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)

Backup Brilliance: 3 Fill-in Players With Splash Potential

  1. Brandon Powell, WR, Minnesota Vikings, $3,200
    • While Jordan Addison has taken over the brunt of the work since Jefferson went down, Powell has steadily seen some work averaging 5 targets per game since Week 5.
    • The Vikings threw for 378 against a tough SF D so there are plenty of chances for Powell to capitalize.
    • With such a low salary, Powell only needs to eclipse double digits in fantasy points to provide value, which he did in Week 7.
  2. Kareem Hunt, RB, Cleveland Browns, $5,200
    • Hunt has shown the ability to coexist with Jerome Ford and with Ford (ankle) likely limited, Hunt could see more touches.
    • The Cleveland RB has three TDs in his last two games.
  3. Darrell Henderson Jr, RB, Los Angeles Rams $4,800
    • After not even realizing he would start for LA, Henderson led the Rams backfield in touches.
    • Despite not playing a game this year, Henderson still managed to rush for 61 yards and a TD.
    • Henderson had 18 rushes and a couple of targets in his 2023 debut.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

  1. Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC Chiefs, $6,100
    • The lowest [TDCost] on the slate and a -131 TD prop against a weak DEN run D that should fall behind
  2. Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals, $2,800
    • With the 4th best [TDCost], he’s filling in for Ertz (IR) and seeing growing targets as a check-down for Dobbs. It’s a tough matchup vs BAL but the price is right.
  3. Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys, $7,500
    • 2nd best TD prop line on the board after McCaffrey and the Vegas line suggests DAL will be playing with a lead

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Week 7 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet -2023

Week 7 is chock full of lacklustre matchups—with no games on the Sunday Main Slate having a total over 48.5. Nevertheless, there is gold in them there matchups. Read on prospectors, and stake your claim.

Shootouts Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

  1. Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) – O/U 48.5
    • The Chargers are ranked 32nd in the league in fantasy points allowed to both QBs and WRs, which is good news for Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense.
    • Both KC and LA scored under 20 points in Week 6 and should get their offenses back on track this week.
    • Austin Ekeler had a dud in his return to health last week but should rebound against KC’s subpar run D.
  2. Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Denver Broncos (+1.5) – O/U 44.5
    • The Broncos allow a DvPL4 of 33.3 FPs to RBs, which bodes well for AJ Dillon. RB1 Jones may be out though (check 90 mins before gametime).
    • The Packers aren’t much better against the run, ranking 27th in the NFL in FPs allowed to backs.
    • While Denver’s D has rebounded from their 70-point dismantling, they’re still allowing 26 points per game across their last three.
  3. Arizona Cardinals(+8.0) at Seattle Seahawks (-8.0) – O/U 44.5
    • Kenneth Walker III could feast against a turnstile Arizona run D that ranks 30th in the league in fantasy points allowed to runners.
    • Prior to last week’s loss, Seattle had been averaging 33 points per game across their last three games.
    • ARI target leader Marquise Brown will get a chance to break out against a mediocre Seattle secondary.

Contrarian Corner: 3 Under-the-Radar Players to Watch

  1. Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs, $5,000
    • The 72 yards Rice had last week were the most by a KC receiver this season. (Mind-boggling)
    • While Travis Kelce is the focal point of the Chiefs offense, this will be his first game this year facing a top ten D in FPs allowed to tight ends.
    • On the other hand, the Chargers rank dead last in the league in fantasy points given up to wide receivers.
  2. Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants, $5,000
    • The Giants have been pitiful on offense, but Waller has seen his share of opportunities (18 targets across the last two games).
    • The tight end has a target share of 20% over his last four games.
    • He’ll look to find the back of the endzone for the first time this season with Tyrod Taylor behind center.
  3. Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons, $5,100
    • London has had an inconsistent start, but he’s upped his fantasy point total in each of the last four games.
    • The Atlanta WR saw 12 targets last week and shredded a bottom-tier Washington D.
    • The Buccs have only been marginally better against WRs this season, ranking 25th in points allowed to the position. This is a critical division game for these teams.
(Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire)

Backup Brilliance: 3 Fill-in Players With Splash Potential

  1. Zach Evans, RB, Los Angeles Rams, $4,000
    • With Kyren Williams banged up, Evans is likely to lead the Rams backfield in Week 7.
    • The Rams are facing a Pittsburgh D that ranks just 26th in the league in FPs given up to opposing runners.
    • The rookie runner got some touches in Week 6 so he does have a few reps under his belt.
  2. Latavius Murray, RB, Buffalo Bills, $4,400
    • Murray will eat up the carries left by Damien Harris as the second back in Buffalo.
    • The Buffalo backup has a median of 1.5 red zone opportunities across his last four games.
    • The Bills could go up big in this one against the Patriots, which may lead to Murray getting more opps.
  3. Adam Trautman, TE, Denver Broncos, $2,600
    • The Denver backup is far from a top option, but with Greg Dulcich out, Trautman’s low price tag limits risk.
    • He did manage 5 targets and a TD in his last full game as Denver’s primary tight end back in Week 5.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

  1. Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns, $5,100
    • The lowest TDCost on the board and a -114 TD prop line against a beatable Indy run D.
  2. Keneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks, $7,000
    • The best TD prop line on the slate at -215.
  3. Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders, $5,800
    • Low TDCost, a -106 TD prop line and likely to be playing with a lead.

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Week 6 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet – 2023

Once Week 6 is in the books, we’ll already be one-third of the way through the NFL regular season. The NFL DFS leaders are now shaking out. Read on for a “Main Slate” cheat sheet.

We start with the marquee Week 6 matchups, and note that this week not one game on the main slate has a total over 47.5.

Shootouts Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

  1. Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) at Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) – O/U 47.5
    • Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua feasted in their first game together last week with each player scoring over 20 fantasy points.
    • The Arizona defense is ranked 25th in the league in FPs allowed to wide receivers.
    • Kyren Williams has had a median of 5 red zone opportunities across the last four games.
  2. Carolina Panthers (+13.5) at Miami Dolphins (-13.5) – O/U 47.5
    • The Miami running back corp has been a juggernaut all season and should keep things going against a Carolina D ranked 29th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to RBs.
    • Adam Thielen has turned back the clock with an average of 25.5 FPs per game over the last four contests.
    • With the Dolphins heavily favored and Miami is 3rd worst in success rate allowed per dropback, Thielen and other Carolina pass catchers could see ample opportunities while playing from behind.
  3. Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) – O/U 45.0
    • Cincinnati’s offense finally got going last week as Joe Burrow had his first 300+ yard outing.
    • JaMarr Chase was the top beneficiary of that, dropping an astronomical 55.2 fantasy points.
    • The Bengals pass catchers now facing a Seattle defense that ranks 29th in fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Contrarian Corner: 3 Under-the-Radar Players to Watch

  1. Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts, $4,100
    • In the three games this season that quarterback Gardner Minshew saw action, Downs was targeted 23 times.
    • Downs has a target percentage of 23% over the last three games.
    • While the Indianapolis run game may see more work with their lead QB out, don’t count out Downs and his ability to link up with Minshew.
  2. Desmond Ridder, QB, Atlanta Falcons, $5,000
    • Despite two games with under ten FPs in Week 3 and Week 4, Ridder went off against Houston last week as he threw for over 300 yards.
    • Ridder’s opponent is a Washington D that ranks 30th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs.
    • The Washington D has a DvPL4 of 29 fantasy points heading into this game.
  3. Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles, $4,900
    • After struggling all season, Goedert finally broke out in Week 5 with 117 yards and his first TD of the year.
    • Goedert is going up against an NYJ D that’s dead last in the league in points allowed to TEs.
    • Despite struggling most of the year, Goedert still has a target share of 21% across his last four games.

(Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

Backup Brilliance: 3 Fill-in Players With Splash Potential

  1. K.J. Osborn, WR, Minnesota Vikings, $4,400
    • With Justin Jefferson down, Osborn should have well beyond the 6 opportunities he’s projected to have in Week 6.
    • Last week Osborn managed to see 9 targets from QB Kirk Cousins.
    • Osborn averaged 87.5 receiving yards per game over the final four weeks of last season.
  2. Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins, $6,400
    • With no competition from De’Von Achane (knee), Mostert
    • Carolina is ranked last in rush defense in DVOA
  3. Gardner Minshew III, QB, Indianapolis Colts, $5,000
    • The Indy backup shouldn’t experience much rust as he’s replaced Anthony Richardson multiple times this season.
    • Minshew is facing a mediocre Jaguars secondary with a DvPL4 of 22.9 FPs.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

  1. Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins, $6,400
    • He’s got the lowest [ TD Cost ] on the slate, a -190 TD prop and little competition for touches
  2. Kyren Williams, RB, LA Rams, $6,500
    • A workhorse with the 2nd best [ TD Cost ] facing the 26th ranked rushing defense by DVOA
  3. Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars, $5,400
    • Zay Jones is out and Kirk comes in with a +160 TD prop in a critical division matchup

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Week 5 NFL DFS Cheatsheet – 2023

david_montgomery_Dfs_2023

Welcome to your NFL week 5 DFS shortcut list. This week we’re going treasure hunting among the most underappreciated players on DraftKing’s Sunday “Main Slate.”

But before we grab our shovels and begin the dig, let’s review which games could set off DFS fireworks on Sunday. Here are three matchups that could make this weekend feel like the 4th of July.

Shootouts Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Minnesota Vikings (+5.5) – O/U 52.0
    • Patrick Mahomes faces the 20th ranked pass D by DVOA and should bounce back after a down game.
  2. Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Los Angeles Rams (+4.5) – O/U 50.0
    • WR Cooper Kupp makes his much-anticipated return and looks to top his 16.2 FP projection.
    • Puka Nacua shows no signs of slowing down and should feast against the mid-tier Philly secondary.
    • The Eagles are averaging 29.5 points per game to start the season.
    • Both the Eagles and Rams are in the bottom ten in points allowed to TEs.
  3. New York Giants (+10.5) at Miami Dolphins (-10.5) – O/U 49.5
    • Both teams are coming off of blowout losses and will look to rebound against weak defenses.
    • While the Giants have struggled recently on offense, they’re facing a Miami defense that ranks in the bottom 10 for fantasy points allowed (for every offensive skill position).
    • De’Von Achane has tallied six TDs in the last two games and is up against a Giants D ranked 25th in the league in FPs allowed to running backs.

Contrarian Corner: 3 Under-the-Radar Players to Watch

  1. Matt Stafford, QB, L.A. Rams, $5,600
    • Stafford gets his favorite target back in Cooper Kupp.
    • Kupp compliments weapons Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Tyler Higbee, and Kyren Williams.
    • Philly’s sketchy pass D was just worse with its defensive tackle injuries.
  2. Rachee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs, $3,600
    • Amid KC’s WR mediocrity, Coach Andy Reid is ready to give Rice a bigger shot.
    • QB Patrick Mahomes is looking to bounce back and Rice is 2nd on the team in targets behind Travis Kelce.
  3. Zach Ertz, TE, Arizona Cardinals, $3,500
    • The veteran Tight End has yet to eclipse more than 56 yards in a game this season, but he has seen a target percentage of 25% during his four games.
    • He’ll face Cincinnati D which ranks 29th in the NFL in FPs given up to rival tight ends.
    • Despite just two targets in Week 3, Ertz has a floor of eight targets in his other games.
(Photo by David Jensen/Icon Sportswire)

Backup Brilliance: 3 Fill-in Players With Splash Potential

  1. David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions, $6,600
    • He may not be the cheapest back on the board but Monty faces the NFL’s worst run D by DVOA.
    • Detroit is a -9.5 point favorite at home and he’ll have less competition for targets with Gibbs out.
  2. Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals, $4,500
    • Boyd has seen 24 targets over the last three games and should be presented with even more looks due to the rib injury of teammate Tee Higgins.
    • The wide receiver had a couple of major fantasy performances last season and with a chance to grab more opportunities this week, Boyd could replicate that past success.
  3. Josh Reynolds, WR, Detroit Lions, $4,200
    • Amon-Ra St. Brown is out and Reynolds has a winning chemistry with Goff.
    • The Lions are heavily favoured but Carolina could make this one closer than expected, forcing more throws.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

  1. David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions, $6,600
  • He’s got the best TD prop odds and lowest [ TDCost ] on the slate.
  1. James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals, $5,800
  • He boasts the 2nd lowest [TDCost] and should eat up the NFL’s 30th ranked rush D by DVOA.
  1. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals, $6,400
  • Arizona has allowed 8 TDs to running backs through the first four weeks and Mixon has a -151 TD prop for just $6,400.

Draft a lineup in this week’s free NFL DFS contest for cash!

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Week 4 NFL DFS Cheatsheet – 2023

tutu_atwell_dfs

Welcome to your week 4 NFL DFS crib notes. We’ve got a bargain bin for fantasy footballers – a veritable thrift shop of the gridiron.

This week, we’re hunting down those underappreciated players on DraftKing’s Sunday “main slate,” some of whom are just one play away from glory.

But first, to kick it all off, we’ve got three games that are yelling “fantasy touchdown!” louder than a beer-imbibed fan in the nosebleed section.

Shootouts: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

  1. Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) – O/U 53.5
    • After scoring 70 points in Week 3, it’s no surprise to see the Dolphins headlining the week’s highest total.
    • Miami backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane turned last Sunday into their own personal touchdown festival (four touchdowns each and almost a combined 400 yards).
    • Yet, with 221 yards on the ground over the last two games, James Cook is no slouch. He’ll look to take advantage of a Miami D that ranks 26th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
  2. Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) – O/U 47.5
    • The Raiders defense has been generously distributing fantasy points to just about every position. It ranks in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to QBs, receivers, running backs, and tight ends.
    • Keenan Allen is coming off a 215-yard receiving performance and a touchdown pass.
    • Davante Adams was a one-man show in Week 3 with two TDs and 172 receiving yards. Despite Jimmy Garoppolo’s absence, he now gets a Chargers D that is dead last in the NFL in FPs allowed to receivers.
  3. Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Chicago Bears (+3.5) – O/U 46.0
    • Chicago squares off against the defense that was on the wrong side of a 70-point shellacking in Week 3.
    • Both teams have given up a bevy of fantasy points to all positions this season.
    • While Justin Fields has been a flop, Russell Wilson has been solid, averaging 21.2 FPs over his last four.

Contrarian Corner: 3 Under-the-Radar Players to Watch

  1. Roschon Johnson, RB, Chicago Bears, $4,900
    • The Denver Broncos coughed up eight touchdowns to opposing running backs in Week 3.
    • Johnson out-touched Khalil Herbert last week and was fairly efficient, averaging 4.8 yards per carry.
    • While the Bears’ offense has been largely M.I.A., this rookie runner could get more of a full-time role.
  2. Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans, $4,600
    • He’s got more fantasy points and TDs than Nico Collins this season but at a lower salary.
    • The Pittsburgh D is ranked 28th in the league in FPs allowed to wide receivers.
    • The rookie has seen 17 targets in his last two games and PIT is ranked 30th in DVOA vs. #2 WRs.
  3. Cam Akers, RB, Minnesota Vikings, $4,900
    • Despite a tumultuous stint with the Rams, Akers gets a new lease on life in Minny.
    • He gets a Panthers D ranked 30th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to RBs, and dead last in rush DVOA.
    • Alexander Mattison is technically the main RB, but he’s averaging a stank 3.1 yards per carry this season.

(Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

Backup Brilliance: 3 Cheap Fill-in Players With Splash Potential

  1. Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers, $4,000
    • With Mike Williams out for the season and the week’s 2nd highest total, Palmer has a chance at more looks.
    • Palmer snagged a TD and 66 yards last week on seven targets.
  2. Tutu Atwell, WR, Los Angeles Rams, $5,500
    • While Puka Nacua has gotten most of the focus, Atwell has 82 yds/game.
    • Atwell has a target percentage of 21% over the last 3 games with a median of 9 targets.
    • The Colts have been a favorable matchup for WRs this year, sitting at 25th in FPs allowed to WRs.
  3. Jameis Winston, QB, New Orleans Saints, $5,300
    • Winston faces his old Buccs team and has RB Alvin Kamara back in the fold, taking some pressure off.
    • At 19th, the Buccs’ D is in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
    • Check QB Derek Carr before drafting Winston as Carr may be a game-time decision.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

  1. D’Andre Swift, RB, Philadelphia Eages, $5,700
  • A sub-$12 TD Cost and an -8.5 point division-game favourite at home versus a middling WAS run defense.
  1. Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers, $4,000
  • He’s got a +175 TD prop for only $4k, and faces a Vegas squad ranked 2nd last in DVOA versus WR2s
  1. Zach Moss, RB, Indianapolis Colts, $6,000.
  • Three straight games with 20+ FPs, a -116 TD prop and LA is 4th worst against the rush in DVOA.

Draft a lineup in this week’s free NFL DFS contest for cash!

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Week 3 NFL DFS Cheatsheet – 2023

jerome ford dfs 2023

Week 3 is another feast fit for a contrarian king. Below, you’ll find under-the-radar jewels sprinkled with handfuls of backups and high-value props. It all kicks off with three NFL games that scream fantasy production.

(Note: This DFS cheat sheet is handcrafted specifically for Sunday’s “main slate” DraftKings contest.)

Shootouts: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

  1. Los Angeles Chargers (+1) at Minnesota Vikings (-1) – O/U 54.0
    • It’s the biggest total on the slate with two teams, both winless in their last 3 games, desperate for a W.
    • The popularity of this matchup will drive up ownership, making it better suited to cash lineups than GPPs.
    • With over 300 receiving yards in two games, Justin Jefferson will continue justifying his salary against LA’s 30th-ranked DVOA defense versus WR1s.
    • Keenan Allen was a top-tier receiver last week (2 TDs and 100+ yards) but should revert to his mean in Minnesota against a top-10 WR1 defense.
  2. Chicago Bears (+13) at Kansas City Chiefs (-13) – O/U 48.0
    • This one’s attracting considerable sharp betting on the under, suggesting a game script whereby KC jumps out to a first-half lead and grinds the clock in the second half.
    • Travis Kelce found the endzone and proved he was healthy in Week 2.
    • Isiah Pacheco should find plenty of running room with the Bears ranked 29th in FPs allowed to RBs.
    • It’s only a matter of time till Justin Fields gets things going with his legs.
  3. Denver Broncos (+6.5) at Miami Dolphins (-6.5) – O/U 48.0
    • 92% of money is being wagered on the over in this one.
    • Raheem Mostert dominated on the ground last week and faces a Broncos D ranked 23rd in FPs to RBs.
    • The Dolphins are even worse against the run, ranked 30th in the NFL in FPs allowed to RBs.
    • Tyreek Hill has 255 receiving yards and three touchdowns in just two games this season.

  1. Desmond Ridder, QB, Atlanta Falcons, $5,000
    • Only one starting QB is cheaper than Ridder in Week 3 (Zach Wilson.)
    • Ridder was finally able to get things going last week, with 276 all-purpose yards and 2 TDs.
    • The Detroit Lions are ranked 28th in FPs allowed to QBs and sharp money is pounding the ATL moneyline.
  2. Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots, $4,100
    • Henry may be touchdown-dependent, but he has found the endzone in both games this season.
    • The New York Jets are ranked 27th against opposing tight ends.
    • Henry has been Mac Jones’ go-to this season, as the TE has 13 targets.
  3. Skyy Moore, WR, Kansas City Chiefs, $4,400
    • Moore rebounded from a Week 1 dud with 70 yards and a touchdown in Week 2.
    • With a spread of 48 points, this game should have plenty of scoring opportunities.
    • KC’s normal WR1, Kadarius Toney (toe), missed two practices and was limited on Friday.
    • The Chicago Bears ranks dead last in DVOA versus WR1s and 26th in FPs allowed to opposing WRs.

Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire

Backup Brilliance: Fill-in players at decent salaries with splash potential

  1. Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans, $3,600
    • With an expanded role due to the loss of Noah Brown, Dell dropped 20.2 FPs in Week 2.
    • The rookie wideout linked had 10 targets and his first career TD.
    • The fact the sharp money is loading up on the HOU moneyline suggests above-expectation HOU offense.
  2. Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns, $4,800
    • After Nick Chubb went down, Ford rushed for over 100 yards and racked up 27.1 fantasy points.
    • Ford received 15 rushing attempts in Week 1, meaning the Browns trusted him even before Chubb’s injury.
    • Admittedly, this is not a great matchup (TEN is 2nd best against the run in DVOA) but the price is right.
  3. Zach Moss, RB, Indianapolis Colts, $5,500
    • We’re seeing the smart money betting on the Colts this week and Moss has 20+ FP in his last two starts
    • Richardson is out, leaving Moss the key to Indy’s ground attack (Jonathan Taylor is out and Deon Jackson was released after an ugly debut.)
    • Monitor the weather for this one. It may be stormy, which would make Moss a better play in Showdown contests.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

  1. Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns, $4,800
    • With a +117 TD prop line and cheap salary, Ford has one of the best [TDCost] values on the main slate.
  2. Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins, $6,000
    • Mostert dominated on the ground last week (121 yards + 2 TDs) and faces the 20th-ranked run D in DVOA.
  3. Travis Kelce, TE, KC Chiefs, $7,200
    • Kelce has the second-highest TD prop on the slate at -169.
    • He’s playing in Arrowhead and Pacheco (RB) and Toney (WR) are banged up.

Don’t forget to enter this week’s
free NFL DFS contest for cash!

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Week 2 NFL DFS Cheatsheet – 2023

nico collins dfs 2023

In Week 2, DFS Hub is serving up another four-course meal of contrarian picks, backup gems, and high-value props, led off by our house selection of NFL games to target.

(Note: This DFS cheat sheet is handcrafted specifically for Sunday’s “main slate” DraftKings contest.)

Shootouts: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

Here’s a trio of matchups with the potential to rain fantasy points like confetti at a Mardi Gras parade.

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) — O/U: 51.0
    • Calvin Ridley didn’t miss a beat in his highly anticipated return to NFL action.
    • With weapons galore, a mature Trevor Lawrence has the talent and team to keep up with KC, at home.
    • Vegas bettors are pounding the KC moneyline and -3 spread in this game, as well as the over (51).
  2. Las Vegas Raiders (+9) at Buffalo Bills (-9) — O/U: 47.0
    • After a multitude of turnovers against the Jets in Jersey, Josh Allen must return to form at home.
    • Davante Adams had ~35% of his team’s targets in Week 1 and should continue to dominate those looks.
    • Betting action implies the Raiders could keep it closer than the line suggests.
  3. Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) at Detroit Lions (-5.5) — O/U: 46.5
    • The Lions outpaced the reigning champs offense and Jared Goff plays dramatically better at home.
    • Seattle’s deep receiving corp will look to click this week after a tough performance to start the year.
    • Vegas sharp-money betting trends suggest the Seahawks will be a hidden fantasy threat in this game.
  1. Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions, $3,900
    • Despite rookie tight ends often being avoided, Sam LaPorta had five catches on five targets in Week 1.
    • LaPorta had an 83% snap share and is firmly entrenched as Detroit’s starting tight end.
    • SEA allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to tight ends last season and were 30th in TE DVOA in week 1.
  2. Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons $5,500
    • Many expected Bijan Robinson to run the show, but Tyler Allgeier is just as much a part of Atlanta’s offense.
    • Allgeier had 15 carries in Week 1, five more Robinson, and five opportunities in the Red Zone.
    • The second-year running back found the endzone twice in Week 1 and should get chances to score again.
  3. Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans, $4,900
    • The Houston Texans offense is far from impressive, but Nico Collins saw 11 targets in Week 1.
    • Collins has 37 targets across his last four games for Houston.
    • The Colts D was shredded last week through the air, so Collins has a chance to exploit their secondary.
ATLANTA, GA Ð SEPTEMBER 10: Atlanta running back Tyler Allgeier (25) reacts after scoring a touchdown during the NFL game between the Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons on September 10th, 2023 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

Backup Brilliance: Fill-in players at decent salaries with splash potential

  1. Justice Hill, RB, Baltimore Ravens, $4,900
    • Hill scored two rushing TDs last week and got multiple looks in the Red Zone.
    • With JK Dobbins out for the season, Hill should see more opportunities in the passing game as well.
  2. Joshua Kelley, RB Los Angeles Chargers, $5,000
    • Kelley tallied 91 yards and a TD while only getting half the touches in week 1
    • He’s got the lowest cost per expected TD and Ekeler (Doubtful) is likely out, not having practiced all week
  3. AJ Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers, $6,600
    • RB1 Aaron Jones (hamstring) didn’t practice all week and WR1 Christian Watson (hamstring) was limited Fri
    • Dillon will try hard to bounce back from his week 1 dud against a run defense ranked 18th in DVOA

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

  1. David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions, $5,800
    • A goal-line runner behind one of the best O-lines, facing the 20th-ranked rushing defense by DVOA
  2. Josh Reynolds, WR, Detroit Lions, $3,700
    • One of the lowest cost starters relative to his TD prop line
    • QB Goff has great chemistry with his former LA teammate and SEA ranks 30th against WR2s in DVOA
  3. Luke Musgrave, TE, Green Bay Packers, $3,200
    • After a solid week 1 debut, we faces against a beatable ATL tight-end defense
    • With RB Jones and WR Watson banged up, Musgrave is likely to see more action

Don’t forget to enter this week’s free NFL DFS contest for cash!

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Week 1 NFL DFS Cheatsheet – 2023

Week 1 2023 NFL cheat sheet

In week 1, DFS Hub is serving up a four-course meal of contrarian picks, backup gems, and high-value props, led off by our house selection of NFL games to target.

And while we’re not claiming to have cracked the DFS Da Vinci code, we’re working our socks off to ensure these NFL DFS Week 1 notes pack a punch. (Note: This fantasy buffet is cooked up specifically for Sunday’s “main slate” DraftKing’s contest.)

Shootouts: 3 Games That Could Generate Hefty Fantasy Totals

Here’s a trio of matchups with the potential to rain fantasy points like confetti at a Mardi Gras parade.

  1. Miami Dolphins (+3) at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) — O/U: 50.5
  2. Cincinnati Bengals (-2) at Cleveland Browns (+2) — O/U: 47.5
    • Nick Chubb may propel himself into the upper echelon of NFL running backs this season.
    • QB Deshaun Watson will try to open strong to justify Cleveland’s investment in him.
    • If Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase both get red, this could be a high-scoring affair.
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) at Indianapolis Colts (+4.5) — O/U: 46.5
  1. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers, $4,900
    • Brandon Aiyuk had a strong finish to the regular season last year, averaging 17.6 fantasy points in his final three games prior to the playoffs.
    • George Kittle is on the mend, leaving a bit more room in the once-crowded 49ers offense for Aiyuk.
    • Many would consider Aiyuk the 49er’s 5th-highest FP-scorer. This week he could prove more fruitful.
  2. J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens, $6,600
    • It’s Houston. The Texans are 2 standard deviations below average in PFF run defense grade.
    • At BAL -10, J.K. Dobbins could enjoy bonus carries if this one gets lopsided early.
    • He’s projected to be only 3% owned and has a +102 TD prop line.
  3. Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans, $4,600
    • The Texans are huge dogs against the Ravens but somebody has to eat on this offense.
    • During his last four games of 2022 Dalton Schultz had five touchdowns with a floor of 8 targets
    • He could offer much-needed support for his rookie quarterback.

HOUSTON, TX – AUGUST 19: Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz (83) in the second quarter during the preseason NFL game between the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans on August 19, 2023 at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

Backup Brilliance: Fill-in players at cheap salaries with splash potential

  1. Deon Jackson, RB, Indianapolis Colts, $4,100
    • With Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss battling injuries for the Colts, Deon Jackson is the next man up.
    • Jackson is a competent pass catcher, as shown by his 75 yards receiving on 7 targets in Week 18.
    • The Jacksonville D was middle of the road against running backs last year.
    • With a $4,100 DraftKings salary, throwing Jackson in at Flex may spell cheap points.
  2. Luke Musgrave, TE, Green Bay Packers, $2,900
    • OK, a TE is not exactly a sub for a WR, but Green Bay may be missing its WR1 and WR2, so close enough.
    • Rookie Luke Musgrave was one of Jordan Love’s favorite targets this pre-season and could see high TgT%
  3. Jamaal Williams, RB, New Orleans Saints, $5,100
    • Jamaal Williams led the NFL his 17 rushing touchdowns last season and Alvin Kamara is out.
    • He also managed to run for over 1,000 yards while sharing the backfield in Detroit.
    • Williams has the third-best [TDCost] of any player on the main slate.

      (TD Cost is a DFS Hub field that measures how much a guaranteed TD would cost based on the player’s salary and prop-implied probability of scoring. Lower numbers are better.)

Prop Bonanza: Players with high prop-to-salary ratios

  1. Marvin Mims Jr., WR, Denver Broncos, $3,000
    • Speedy Marvin Mims Jr. has the best [TDCost] of any player on the main slate
    • He should be in line for more targets with Jerry Jeudy (hamstring) not practicing in full this week
    • Vegas had a coverage grade that was 1.5 standard deviations below average last year (i.e., ca ca).
  2. Cam Akers, RB, LA Rams, $6,200
    • Cam Akers is coming off three straight 100-yard performances and Seattle has only an average Run-D
    • WR Cooper Kupp is out and Akers can catch out of the backfield
    • He’s got a +102 prop TD line, a favorable TD Cost of $12.52 and he plays very well in Lumen field
  3. Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins, $5,400
    • Speedster Raheem Mostert is top 4 on this slate in yards after contact & Miami’s WRs will spread the field
    • He faces a porous run-D (LAC gave up 5.6 ypc in 2022) and has modest expected competition for carries.

Don’t forget to enter this week’s free NFL DFS contest for cash!