Welcome to your NFL week 5 DFS shortcut list. This week we’re going treasure hunting among the most underappreciated players on DraftKing’s Sunday “Main SlateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam....”
But before we grab our shovels and begin the dig, let’s review which games could set off DFS fireworks on Sunday. Here are three matchups that could make this weekend feel like the 4th of July.
Shootouts Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals
- Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Minnesota Vikings (+5.5) – O/U 52.0
- Patrick Mahomes faces the 20th ranked pass D by DVOA and should bounce back after a down game.
- Justin Jefferson remains the main bright spot of the Vikings.
- Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Los Angeles Rams (+4.5) – O/U 50.0
- WR Cooper Kupp makes his much-anticipated return and looks to top his 16.2 FP projection.
- Puka Nacua shows no signs of slowing down and should feast against the mid-tier Philly secondary.
- The Eagles are averaging 29.5 points per game to start the season.
- Both the Eagles and Rams are in the bottom ten in points allowed to TEs.
- New York Giants (+10.5) at Miami Dolphins (-10.5) – O/U 49.5
- Both teams are coming off of blowout losses and will look to rebound against weak defenses.
- While the Giants have struggled recently on offense, they’re facing a Miami defense that ranks in the bottom 10 for fantasy points allowed (for every offensive skill position).
- De’Von Achane has tallied six TDs in the last two games and is up against a Giants D ranked 25th in the league in FPsFantasy points allowed to running backs.
Contrarian Corner: 3 Under-the-Radar Players to Watch
- Matt Stafford, QB, L.A. Rams, $5,600
- Stafford gets his favorite target back in Cooper Kupp.
- Kupp compliments weapons Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Tyler Higbee, and Kyren Williams.
- Philly’s sketchy pass D was just worse with its defensive tackle injuries.
- Rachee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs, $3,600
- Amid KC’s WR mediocrity, Coach Andy Reid is ready to give Rice a bigger shot.
- QB Patrick Mahomes is looking to bounce back and Rice is 2nd on the team in targets behind Travis Kelce.
- Zach Ertz, TE, Arizona Cardinals, $3,500
- The veteran Tight End has yet to eclipse more than 56 yards in a game this season, but he has seen a target percentage of 25% during his four games.
- He’ll face Cincinnati D which ranks 29th in the NFL in FPs given up to rival tight ends.
- Despite just two targets in Week 3, Ertz has a floor of eight targets in his other games.
Backup Brilliance: 3 Fill-in Players With Splash Potential
- David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions, $6,600
- He may not be the cheapest back on the board but Monty faces the NFL’s worst run D by DVOA.
- Detroit is a -9.5 point favorite at home and he’ll have less competition for targets with Gibbs out.
- Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals, $4,500
- Boyd has seen 24 targets over the last three games and should be presented with even more looks due to the rib injury of teammate Tee Higgins.
- The wide receiver had a couple of major fantasy performances last season and with a chance to grab more opportunities this week, Boyd could replicate that past success.
- Josh Reynolds, WR, Detroit Lions, $4,200
- Amon-Ra St. Brown is out and Reynolds has a winning chemistry with Goff.
- The Lions are heavily favoured but Carolina could make this one closer than expected, forcing more throws.
Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios
- David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions, $6,600
- He’s got the best TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). odds and lowest [ TDCostTD Cost is the implied cost of a touchdown based on the player's salary and the player's TD prop line. This field shows what you'd have to pay for the player (in salary) if you wanted a guaranteed touchdown from him, based on his probability of scoring and his current salary. Low... ] on the slate.
- James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals, $5,800
- He boasts the 2nd lowest [TDCost] and should eat up the NFL’s 30th ranked rush D by DVOA.
- Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals, $6,400
- Arizona has allowed 8 TDs to running backs through the first four weeks and Mixon has a -151 TD prop for just $6,400.
