Welcome to your week 4 NFL DFS crib notes. We’ve got a bargain bin for fantasy footballers – a veritable thrift shop of the gridiron.
This week, we’re hunting down those underappreciated players on DraftKing’s Sunday “main slateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam...,” some of whom are just one play away from glory.
But first, to kick it all off, we’ve got three games that are yelling “fantasy touchdown!” louder than a beer-imbibed fan in the nosebleed section.
Shootouts: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals
- Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) – O/U 53.5
- After scoring 70 points in Week 3, it’s no surprise to see the Dolphins headlining the week’s highest total.
- Miami backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane turned last Sunday into their own personal touchdown festival (four touchdowns each and almost a combined 400 yards).
- Yet, with 221 yards on the ground over the last two games, James Cook is no slouch. He’ll look to take advantage of a Miami D that ranks 26th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
- Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) – O/U 47.5
- The Raiders defense has been generously distributing fantasy points to just about every position. It ranks in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to QBs, receivers, running backs, and tight ends.
- Keenan Allen is coming off a 215-yard receiving performance and a touchdown pass.
- Davante Adams was a one-man show in Week 3 with two TDs and 172 receiving yards. Despite Jimmy Garoppolo’s absence, he now gets a Chargers D that is dead last in the NFL in FPsFantasy points allowed to receivers.
- Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Chicago Bears (+3.5) – O/U 46.0
- Chicago squares off against the defense that was on the wrong side of a 70-point shellacking in Week 3.
- Both teams have given up a bevy of fantasy points to all positions this season.
- While Justin Fields has been a flop, Russell Wilson has been solid, averaging 21.2 FPs over his last four.
Contrarian Corner: 3 Under-the-Radar Players to Watch
- Roschon Johnson, RB, Chicago Bears, $4,900
- The Denver Broncos coughed up eight touchdowns to opposing running backs in Week 3.
- Johnson out-touched Khalil Herbert last week and was fairly efficient, averaging 4.8 yards per carry.
- While the Bears’ offense has been largely M.I.A., this rookie runner could get more of a full-time role.
- Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans, $4,600
- He’s got more fantasy points and TDs than Nico Collins this season but at a lower salary.
- The Pittsburgh D is ranked 28th in the league in FPs allowed to wide receivers.
- The rookie has seen 17 targets in his last two games and PIT is ranked 30th in DVOA vs. #2 WRs.
- Cam Akers, RB, Minnesota Vikings, $4,900
- Despite a tumultuous stint with the Rams, Akers gets a new lease on life in Minny.
- He gets a Panthers D ranked 30th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to RBs, and dead last in rush DVOA.
- Alexander Mattison is technically the main RB, but he’s averaging a stank 3.1 yards per carry this season.
Backup Brilliance: 3 Cheap Fill-in Players With Splash Potential
- Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers, $4,000
- With Mike Williams out for the season and the week’s 2nd highest total, Palmer has a chance at more looks.
- Palmer snagged a TD and 66 yards last week on seven targets.
- Tutu Atwell, WR, Los Angeles Rams, $5,500
- While Puka Nacua has gotten most of the focus, Atwell has 82 yds/game.
- Atwell has a target percentage of 21% over the last 3 games with a median of 9 targets.
- The Colts have been a favorable matchup for WRs this year, sitting at 25th in FPs allowed to WRs.
- Jameis Winston, QB, New Orleans Saints, $5,300
- Winston faces his old Buccs team and has RB Alvin Kamara back in the fold, taking some pressureA “pressure” in NFL parlance is when the quarterback is hurried, hit or sacked. Defenses that pressure the opposing QB more than average allow fewer points and win more games, for obvious reasons. QBs under pressure throw away the ball more and make more mistakes (e.g., throw... off.
- At 19th, the Buccs’ D is in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
- Check QB Derek Carr before drafting Winston as Carr may be a game-time decision.
Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios
- D’Andre Swift, RB, Philadelphia Eages, $5,700
- A sub-$12 TD CostTD Cost is the implied cost of a touchdown based on the player's salary and TD prop line. TD Cost = Salary / Probability of a touchdown This shows what you'd have to pay for the player if you wanted a guaranteed touchdown from him, based on his probability of scoring and his curr... and an -8.5 point division-game favourite at home versus a middling WAS run defense.
- Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers, $4,000
- He’s got a +175 TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). for only $4k, and faces a Vegas squad ranked 2nd last in DVOA versus WR2s
- Zach Moss, RB, Indianapolis Colts, $6,000.
- Three straight games with 20+ FPs, a -116 TD prop and LA is 4th worst against the rush in DVOA.
