NFL DFS predictions post here every week, including projected outcomes and players to watch for every matchup.
Sunday, Nov. 21st (Early Slate)
49ERS (4-5) AT JAGUARS (2-7) — 1:00pm ET FOX
Favorite: San Francisco (-6.5) O/U: 45.5
The 49ers stunned a lot of people on Monday night, maybe even themselves. San Francisco throttled the vaunted LA Rams as Odell Beckham Jr. and Von Miller made their debuts. The Niners defense, led by Jimmie Ward’s two back-to-back interceptions, manhandled the Rams offense as the Niners, led by 44 rushing attempts, bullied the Rams defense all night. While the Jaguars defense has played more inspired lately, they haven’t faced a rushing attack like San Francisco’s’. The Jaguars’ hopes will hinge on keeping Lawrence vertical and doing their best to clog up running lanes, forcing the Niners to pass.
DFS Player to Watch: Deebo Samuel | WR | $7,800 DraftKings | $7,600 FanDuel
Deebo Samuel is playing like a man possessed, averaging 18.1 yards per reception this season. While the Niners as a whole have proved to be wildly inconsistent, their one reliable aspect has been Samuel. He’s not just a lethal receiver either; the man can run harder and faster than most running backs in the league. The Jaguars defense, graded 8th worst by PFF, has shown improvements in recent weeks but they’ve yet to play a receiver of Deebo’s pedigree. He’s one of the best DFS receivers this week in a prime matchup.
COLTS (5-5) AT BILLS (6-3) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: Buffalo (-7) O/U: 50
The Colts survived an entertaining game against the Jags at home but now they face a much stiffer test. Buffalo bounced back from its stunning loss to Jacksonville, dismantling the Jets 45-17. The Colts, like most of the teams in the league, have been banged up. But they’ve also lost multiple games they had no business losing, especially earlier in the season when they were mostly healthy. The Colts must protect Carson Wentz at all costs because, unlike Josh Allen, if you take away his pocket the entire offense goes down the tubes. That’s not to mention the ever-present possibility that fragile Wentz goes down with an injury. A loss for either team could have lasting playoff repurcussions.
DFS Player to Watch: Stefon Diggs | WR | $7,900 DraftKings | $8,100 FanDuel
Stefon Diggs has continued to be one of the most reliable receivers for fantasy owners. Last week he amassed 162 yards and a touchdown against the Jets. He also figures to get plenty of looks against the Colts as Sean McDermott will likely want to air it out early and often against a Colts’ secondary graded 9th-worst by PFF, once that’s coughed up the 6th most FPs to receivers in the last 4 weeks.
RAVENS (6-3) AT BEARS (3-6) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: Baltimore (-6) O/U: 45.5
The Ravens are coming off of one of the more shocking upsets of the year after losing to the Dolphins 22-10. Ten weeks into the season and the Ravens still have plenty of question marks surrounding their legitimacy as a Super Bowl contender. One key question is Lamar’s ability to overcome defensive formations that flummox his reads and progressions and take away his running lanes. The Bears will provide an interesting test as their defense, while nicked up and bruised, can still bring the heat up front. As for Justin Fields, he’s far from a finished product. Yet, he’s made strides with his passing and pocket awareness since being crowned the starter. This is no gimme for the Ravens, despite the Bear’s defense, which is graded 3rd-worst according to PFF.
DFS Player to Watch: Lamar Jackson | QB | $8,000 DraftKings | $8,400 FanDuel
Despite the final score, Lamar’s numbers last week weren’t horrendous: 238 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT and additional 39 yards rushing. That was against the Dolphins’s unusually stingy defense. Regardless of the opponent, however, Lamar is a low-risk starter week in and week out. After last week’s loss in South Beach, he’ll have piss and vinegar in his veins. Expect him to dominate through the air and ground.
LIONS (0-8-1) AT BROWNS (5-5) — 1:00pm ET FOX
Favorite: Cleveland (-10) O/U: 44.5
The Lions were in one of the wildest games of recent memory last week, ending in a bizarre 16-16 overtime tie to the Steelers. The elements played a factor for both teams but the bigger issues were the same ones that have plagued the Lions all year: defensive lapses, missed field goals and untimely turnovers. These miscues ultimately cost them their first win. The motor city kitties now travel to take on a Browns team that was humiliated by the Pats 45-7. The Browns are one of the numerous teams that can’t put together convincing wins on a consistent basis. There’s growing concern about how far they can go with their QB situation. Baker has oscillated between solid and awful…when he’s been healthy enough to play. This week he’s expected to get the start — against the 2nd worst coverage unit in football.
DFS Player to Watch: D’Andre Swift | RB | $7,000 DraftKings | $7,500 FanDuel
D’Andre Swift had a stellar fantasy performance last week against the Steelers. He rushed for 130 yards against one of the hardest hitting run defenses in the league. Meanwhile the Browns defense was gashed for 184 total rushing yards last week. If you need an RB that’ll see plenty of volume, Swift is your man.
TEXANS (1-8) AT TITANS (8-2) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: Tennessee (-10.5) O/U: 44.5
The Titans continue to roll through the competition even without their superstar running back Derrick Henry. This team is the real deal, plain and simple. The offense is operating at a high level, outscoring opponents by an average of 10 points over the last four weeks. And not their defense, once called their achilles heel, has come into its own just at the right time. The Titans now get to face a Houston squad that’s just about the worst in the league from a talent perspective. Houston is dead last in points per game and 4th worst in points allowed.
DFS Player to Watch: Ryan Tannehill | QB | $6,700 DraftKings | $7,800 FanDuel
Ryan Tannehill is another low-risk-high-reward QB who’s quietly been one of the more reliable QBs this year. Last week he 3x’d his salary again against the vaunted Saints defense, putting up 213 yards and a TD. Expect better numbers against a Texans secondary that is officially the NFL’s worst.
PACKERS (8-2) AT VIKINGS (4-5) — 1:00pm ET FOX
Favorite: Green Bay (-2.5) O/U: 49
The Packers welcomed the return of Aaron Rodgers last Sunday and, despite sloppy play in tough conditions, they managed to hand Russell Wilson the first shutout of his impressive NFL career. Now the Pack travel to meet the explosive Vikings, sans Aaron Jones (due to an MCL sprain he suffered against the Seahawks). The Vikings put together a solid road win against the Chargers last week. That should boost their confidence, as may the chorus of rowdy “Skol” chants in the background. The Packers, as of this writing, sit atop the NFC standings. They’ll need to stave off a Vikings team that plays fast, physical and hungry—one that scores more than Green Bay but gives up more as well.
DFS Player to Watch: Dalvin Cook | RB | $8,400 DraftKings | $9,400 FanDuel
Dalvin Cook is easily one of the best running backs in the game and he should thrive this Sunday against GB’s average run defense. Last week he put up 94 yards and a touchdown against a stout Chargers run D on the road. Zimmer rushes the ball more than average so expect Cook to get plenty of sweeps and runs up the gut.
DOLPHINS (3-7) AT JETS (2-7) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: Miami (-3) O/U: 45
Miami wowed the league last week when they throttled the Ravens behind some inspired defensive play and a few late game heroics from Tua Tagovailoa. Tua salted the game away when it looked like Baltimore was going to make a run at it. If they can sustain that level of play against the Jets and RB Mike White, they could tally their third consecutive win. The Jets are simply trying to survive the year at this point, despite surprising upsets against the Bengals and Titans. Last week could very well end up being an outlier but the fact is, the Dolphins have momentum heading into this matchup. They also have the healthier roster. If the Jets, far and away the NFL’s worst defense, are to top the Dolphins, they’ll need a little luck.
DFS Player to Watch: Tua Tagovailoa | QB | $5,500 DraftKings | $7,000 FanDuel
Tua has received his fair share of flack this season with subpar performances mixed and an inability to stay healthy. But he is likely the best player to start for this matchup (if you have to pick one), given his solid performance in relief of Jacoby Brissett on Thursday. 158 yards of passing yards is nothing to write home about but coming off an injury halfway through a game makes that number stand out much more. With 10 days of rest under his belt and an opponent who coughed up 20 more FPPG than the 2nd worst defense (over the last 4 weeks), it could be Tua’s day.
SAINTS (5-4) AT EAGLES (4-6) — 1:00pm ET FOX
Favorite: Philadelphia (-1.5) O/U: 43.5
The Saints continue to fight, scratch and claw against every opponent, doing it without a starting calibre QB under center. Unfortunately, they have now come up short two games in a row. Last week they were without Alvin Kamara and they still took the AFC-leading Titans to the wire. Their opponent this week is another up and down squad that has been more up than down lately, thanks to Jalen Hurts. Hurts threw for 178 yards, 2 TDs and an INT against the same Broncos defense that took the high-powered Cowboys to the woodshed last week. While the Saints defense remains one of the best in the league, that only goes so far if your offense struggles to score points and keep the other team’s QB on the bench. Three straight losses at this point in the season wouldn’t necessarily be the end of the ride for New Orleans, but facing a bottom-third defense, these are the ones they need to win.
DFS Player to Watch: Jalen Hurts | QB | $6,800 DraftKings | $7,700 FanDuel
Hurts, with his powerful arm and elusive running, continues to become one of the more dangerous QBs in the league. While the Saints defense has proven to be effective against pocket passers, they have yet to face a QB with the escapability of Hurts. His dual threat status should pay off against a sub-par pass rush, and a defense that’s allowed the sixth most FPs to QBs since week 6.
Favorite: Carolina (-3.5) O/U: 43
Washington is flying high after a magic victory over the Bucs. They’ll take that momentum into Carolina to take on Cam Newton. The rejuvenated Panthers are 1-0 since his surprise return to the team that drafted him first overall back in 2011. No one knows Cam better than Washington coach Ron Rivera, however, and that alone makes this an interesting matchup. It’ll be the first time the two of them have squared off since Rivera was dismissed from the Panthers back in 2019. These two men came achingly close to winning it all together six years ago.
DFS Player to Watch: Cam Newton | WR | $5,100 DraftKings | $7,500 FanDuel
At just $5,100 on DraftKings, this may be the blue light special of the week. Assuming his legs still work and his red zone prowess from last week continues, Newton offers value against one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses. Just try to forget his season with the Patriots last year, at least for this week.
Sunday, Nov. 21st (Afternoon Slate)
BENGALS (5-4) AT RAIDERS (5-4) — 4:05pm ET CBS
Favorite: Cinncinati (-1) O/U: 49.5
The Bengals and Raiders have both been humbled by divisional beatdowns in recent weeks — to the Browns and Chiefs, respectively. Both offenses have looked stagnant and ineffective but ultimately something has to give. The Bengals have the edge coming off a bye rested. Moreover, their QB and WR1 duo operate at high levels regardless of the final score. As for the Raiders, they’ve gone through too much off-field turbulence this season. It’s looking like those obstacles are finally taking their toll on the team. This is a closely matched game from a personnel standpoint. The team with less extracurricular drama may well prevail.
DFS Player to Watch: Joe Mixon | RB | $7,600 DraftKings | $7,600 FanDuel
Joe Mixon rushed for only 64 yards against the Browns two weeks ago but he also was able to score two touchdowns. That makes 1-2 touchdowns in all of his last six games. Mixon is a threat regardless of field position and down. He’s particularly effective in the red zone and by the goal line, which figures to happen one way or another on Sunday.
COWBOYS (7-2) AT CHIEFS (6-4) — 4:25pm ET FOX
Favorite: Kansas City (-2.5) O/U: 56
The Cowboys’ and Chiefs’ offenses struggled mightily in week 9, then seemingly returned to their previous heights against the Falcons and Raiders. The Cowboys have the NFC East crown firmly in their grasp but the Chiefs, at least momentarily, find themselves in a neck and neck race for the AFC West title. This game may very well come down to who needs the victory more. In that respect, it’s the Chiefs. The Cowboys have enough firepower to contend with any team in the league, including K.C., but the Chiefs have a very real home field advantage, on top of a better QB and head coach. The advantage, on paper, goes to the Chiefs. But if their offense regresses again, it could be a long day for Chiefs kingdom.
DFS Player to Watch: Dak Prescott | QB | $7,200 DraftKings | $8,400 FanDuel
Dak Prescott bounced back in a major way against the Falcons at home last week. He threw for 296 yards and three TDs. On the year he’s averaging 8.2 yards per attempt (top 5), is the #1 QB in ANY/A over the last 4 weeks, and he now faces a suspect Chiefs secondary susceptible to the deep pass. Not to mention, he’ll likely have to throw more often to keep pace in this one.
CARDINALS (8-2) AT SEAHAWKS (3-6) — 4:25pm ET FOX
Favorite: Arizona (-2.5) O/U: 49
The Cardinals, without Kyler Murray and a quarter of their starters, came back to earth against Cam Newton’s Panthers. But things on the Seahawks’ end weren’t any prettier. Seattle was shut out for the first time since 2011—and the first time in Russell Wilson’s tenure. WR Hopkins is out but if Kyler Murray (game-time decision) is able to return to action, that might be enough to turn the tide in Arizona’s favor. That said, despite the rare shutout for Seattle, the Seahawks are the healthier team and playing with a raucous home crowd behind them. It remains a mystery on how effective Wilson will be with the surgically repaired finger but he figures to only improve from last week.
DFS Player to Watch: DK Metcalf | WR | $6,800 DraftKings | $7,500 FanDuel
DK Metcalf, along with the entire Seahawks offense, was a ghost last week against Green Bay. Three receptions for 26 yards is almost unheard of for a receiver of Metcalf’s importance and ability. That’s why he’s a bounceback pick versus an ailing Cardinals team, one that he and Wilson are fully capable of exploiting. Metcalf has scored at least a touchdown in 6 out of the 9 games this year. And that was with Geno Smith at QB for 3.5 games. With Wilson’s finger being another week removed from surgical repair, and with the added motivation of last week’s humiliating shutout, expect the Wilson-Metcalf connection to improve noticeably at home.
Sunday, Nov. 21st (Late Slate)
STEELERS (5-3-1) AT CHARGERS (5-4) — 8:20pm ET NBC
Favorite: Los Angeles (-6) O/U: 47
The Steelers fumbled away a potential victory in OT — not once but twice! They have a rare tie on their record as a result. If they want any chance at taking the top spot away from the Ravens, Pittsburgh must win a tough road game against the Chargers. The Chargers have looked surprisingly human after their red hot 4-1 start. They’ve dropped 3 of their last 4, for a multitude of reasons, including defensive lapses, poor coaching adjustments in the second half of games and the occasional Herbert interception. Those always seems to come at the most inopportune times. Pittsburgh has allowed the third fewest points to QBs in the last four weeks and Big Ben is back following his COVID absence, but that may not be enough.
DFS Player to Watch: Austin Ekeler | RB | $7,900 DraftKings | $8,200 FanDuel
Austin Ekeler will have a steel wall to rush through against the Steelers. But his dynamic ability to run up the middle, execute jet sweeps and run routes like a receiver makes him an invaluable offensive tool. Herbert will no doubt feed the ball to Ekeler early in this matchup. Granted, last week he only rushed for 44 yards against the Vikings. But once the Vikings took a ten-point lead in the 4th quarter, Brandon Staley abandoned the run and went solely with the passing game. If the Chargers can either take an early lead or at least keep pace with the Steelers’ offense, Ekeler figures to get ample carries throughout the game.
Monday, Nov. 22nd (MNF)
GIANTS (3-6) AT BUCCANEERS (6-3) — 8:15pm ET ESPN
Favorite: Tampa Bay (-11) O/U: 49.5
The Buccaneers look to be in a serious slump, one that starts with the mediocre play of their pass defense and, more surprisingly, the subpar play of Tom Brady. It wasn’t that the Washington Football Team beat the Bucs, they straight up demolished them. Washington came into the game with one of the most suspect secondaries in the league. It ended up picking off Brady twice in the first quarter, whose throws looked off from the opening kick off. This slump is particularly alarming given two weeks ago, before their bye, the Bucs looked completely outclassed and out-coached by a Saints team who lost starting QB Jameis Winston to a torn ACL in the first quarter. The Bucs ultimately lost that one 36-27. Despite all that, they’re playing the Giants (7th worst offense according to PFF) at home.
DFS Player to Watch: Devontae Booker | RB | $5,400 DraftKings | $6,300 FanDuel
Devontae Booker nearly had 100 yards rushing two weeks ago against the stingy Raiders front seven. He very well could be in for another big night against a Bucs defense whose rush defense has slipped to bottom third in the last four weeks. Even with the possibility of Barkley coming back from injury, the Giants will likely play it safe with his carries and let Booker get the majority of the touches come Monday night.
Check back Friday evenings for the full rundown on the week’s action.
About the Author: Steven A. Cravens has been a professional sports better and analyst for over a decade. As a former Fox Sports NFL researcher and data logger, he specialized in player profiling and performance statistics.
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all fantasy stats are based on point per reception (PPR) scoring.
