NFL DFS predictions post here every week, including projected outcomes and players to watch for every matchup. (We respond to all reader comments so please jot them below.)
Thursday, Nov. 11th (TNF)
RAVENS (6-2) AT DOLPHINS (2-7) — 8:20pm ET FOX
Favorite: Baltimore (-7.5) O/U: 46.5
The Ravens got into a slugfest with the Minnesota Vikings and, as has happened so often, the game came down to Justin Tucker making a clutch field goal to win it. Minus a sloppy interception in OT, Lamar Jackson was his usual MVP-calibre self with 266 yards passing and 3 touchdowns with an additional 120 yards rushing. The Dolphins, coming off a 17-9 win against the now 1-8 Houston Texans, will need more than a little luck if they are to have a chance of beating the Ravens. Regardless of whether Tua is able to play, this could be a lopsided affair.
DFS Player to Watch: Lamar Jackson | QB | $7,800 DraftKings | $8,600 FanDuel
Lamar Jackson poses a massive threat to any defense, let alone a below average defense like Miami. With the Dolphin defense ranking near the bottom in overall efficiency, Lamar is primed for this matchup.
Sunday, Nov. 14th (Early Slate)
FALCONS (4-4) AT COWBOYS (6-2) — 1:00pm ET FOX
Favorite: Dallas (-9) O/U: 54.5
This game is a follow-up to two striking upsets: the Falcons upsetting the Saints in New Orleans last week and the Cowboys getting upset in Dallas. The Falcons are like a box of chocolates as you never know what you’re going to get. For a while it looked like the Falcons were going to suffer another epic collapse, but Matt Ryan made clutch throws when it counted. The Falcons won a game that they had grown accustomed to losing and their playoff hopes are still very much alive as a result. The Cowboys, on the other hand, looked out of their depth against the Broncos—in every facet of the game. But one week’s disaster does not a team make. Expect a rebound by the Boys and reversion to the mean for Atlanta, but not before one hell of a shootout.
DFS Player to Watch: Matt Ryan | QB | $6,000 DraftKings | $7,300 FanDuel
Matt Ryan was our pick in the Falcons’ matchup last week. That proved fruitful as he went off for 343 yards and two touchdowns. The Cowboys have an embarrassment of riches offensively but the Falcons run through one man to put points on the board. That’s why Ryan (335+ yards in 3 of his last 4 games) is once again our pick of the litter.
SAINTS (5-3) AT TITANS (7-2) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: Tennessee (-3) O/U: 44.5
The Saints put forth a valiant effort to come back, down 18 points against the Falcons last week. Ultimately, they fell short and this week, they face red hot Tennessee. The Titans currently have the best record in the AFC and are playing tenaciously, despite losing their heart and soul in Derrick Henry. Make no mistake, the Titans are still for real. Their defense is catching fire after neutralizing one of the most prolific offenses in the league: the Rams. Sean Payton, one of the best coaches in the game, will need to dig deep into his bag of tricks for a chance at a road upset with two backup quarterbacks and no Alvin Kamara (knee).
DFS Player to Watch: Ryan Tannehill | QB | $6,200 DraftKings | $7,400 FanDuel
Ryan Tannehill’s numbers against the Rams last week were the worst he’s posted all season ( 143 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). Yet, he was a key reason the Titans got the “W.” Tannehill’s numbers should be much improved at home, especially against the 30th-ranked defense versus QBs over the last four weeks.
JAGUARS (2-6) AT COLTS (4-5) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: Indianapolis (-10.5) O/U: 47.5
The Jaguars pulled off what might be the upset of the year, defeating the Buffalo Bills 9-6 with an incredible defensive effort. The question is, can they replicate that performance on the road—against a Colts team that clicks offensively when needed. The Colts won’t make the same mistake of underestimating their rivals. But, Jacksonville is still vying to be the worst team in football. Hence, the chances are high they’ll be run right over by the Taylor Express.
DFS Player to Watch: Jonathan Taylor | RB | $8,100 DraftKings | $9,400 FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor has been a force this year. He’s just 179 yards away from hitting 1000 yards rushing, and it’s only week 10. Taylor has also put up 1-2 touchdowns per game since week 4. He’ll confront a middling run defense, while averaging almost 6 yards per attempt.
BROWNS (5-4) AT PATRIOTS (5-4) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: New England (-1.5) O/U: 45
The Browns pulled off a minor upset against the Bengals on the road last week. They’ll look to turn the Patriots’ 1-4 home record into 1-5. Both teams are 5-4 and a loss here would make playoff hopes for the losing team much more unlikely. This is about as close to a must-win game as it gets in the crowded AFC playoff hunt. Both teams put together solid wins on the road but something has to give here. This should be a close game that goes all the way to the wire.
DFS Player to Watch: Mac Jones | QB | $5,300 DraftKings | $6,500 FanDuel
Jones put up the worst numbers of his rookie season against the Panthers ( 139 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT) but he still managed a win. Jones is a low-cost QB who’s seldom made mistakes since week three. With RB Damien Harris questionable, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels could let Jones cook sling it all over the place. This should be a bounce-back game at home.
BILLS (5-3) AT JETS (2-6) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: Buffalo (-13) O/U: 47.5
The Bills were struck in the gut by a sledgehammer, losing 9-6 to the Jaguars of all teams. They and their 3rd-ranked defense (according to PFF) seek to regroup against the woeful Jets. Fortunately for Buffalo, the Jets are in flux at QB due to injury. Note: Keep an eye on the NFL fantasy injury report to see if Corey Davis makes a return because without him, fill-in QB Mike White could have a long day. As for New York’s run-D, it’s unbelievably bad, giving up almost 50 FP a game to RBs since week #5. The Bills have dominated opponents for most of the year. It’s a big reason why many had them pegged as super bowl favorites. Losses like last week’s are a reminder that “any given Sunday” was coined specifically for games like that…and matchups like this.
DFS Player to Watch: Stefon Diggs | WR | $7,500 DraftKings | $7,900 FanDuel
Stefon Diggs has been a centerpiece in the Bills’ offense since he was traded to Buffalo. But his numbers in recent weeks have been alarmingly low for a receiver of his ilk. In the loss last week against Jacksonville, he amassed 85 yards receiving, but in the previous weeks he mustered only 40, 89 and 69 yards with only two touchdowns. What better opportunity to right the ship than against a Jets defense that ranks near the bottom of the league against the pass?
LIONS (0-8) AT STEELERS (5-3) — 1:00pm ET FOX
Favorite: Pittsburgh (-9) O/U: 42.5
The Steelers were gift-wrapped a win last week against the Bears. That was some of the worst officiating we’ve seen in ages. The Steelers now sit at 5-3 and will be taking on the 0-8 Lions coming off their bye week. If this game was in Detroit we’d give the Lions more hope. The Lions have occasionally given superior teams fits offensively. Still, 0-8 is 0-8 and the Steelers, as washed as Big Ben is, still have a clear defensive edge.
DFS Player to Watch: Najee Harris | RB | $7,900 DraftKings | $9,400 FanDuel
Najee Harris only averages 3.6 yards a carry but he’s already up to 540 yards rushing on the season with six touchdowns to boot. And now he gets the 4th-worst defense against running backs over the last four weeks. This should be a prime opportunity for Harris, especially with more targets to go around given WR Claypool is out.
BUCCANEERS (6-2) AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (2-6) — 1:00pm ET FOX
Favorite: Tampa Bay (-9.5) O/U: 51.5
Both the Bucs and Washington are coming off bye weeks. They’ll be well rested for this rematch of last year’s first round of the playoffs. The Bucs will reportedly be without Antonio Brown so Brady will have to make due with all the other elite weapons around him. WFT is slumping and the talent gap between the two teams is so large you could drive a greyhound bus through it. That said, Washington is not completely without playmakers.
DFS Player to Watch: Chris Godwin | WR | $7,100 DraftKings | $7,800 FanDuel
We ride the Chris Godwin wave this week. He’s coming off of two back-to-back 100+ yard games with a touchdown each. Godwin will look to continue that offensive output Sunday against a Washington secondary graded third worst in the NFL by PFF.
Sunday, Nov. 14th (Afternoon Slate)
PANTHERS (4-5) AT CARDINALS (8-1) — 4:05pm ET FOX
Favorite: Arizona (-10) O/U: 44.5
The Cards proved on Sunday that they are indeed one of the deepest and best coached teams in the NFL. Their emphatic 31-17 win over the 49ers on the road saw Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green and Chase Edmunds all sit out. Zona is a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Panthers got Christian McCaffrey back but he only managed 52 yards on 14 carries. Meanwhile, QB Darnold threw three interceptions and is now on IR. Despite the Cam Newton signing, an unproven P.J. Walker is expected to get the start under center.
DFS Player to Watch: Christian McCaffrey | RB | $8,400 DraftKings | $9,000 FanDuel
Despite an uninspiring showing against the Patriots, Christian McCaffrey could put up hefty numbers. The Cardinals run defense (graded 2nd worst in the NFL by PFF) has taken a hit with the absence of J.J. Watt. That could open up the lanes for McCaffrey. He’ll likely run for big chunks and while getting open for some check downs from Walker.
VIKINGS (3-5) AT CHARGERS (5-3) — 4:05pm ET FOX
Favorite: Los Angeles (-2.5) O/U: 52
The Vikings continued their inconsistent ways — following up a dismal performance against the Cooper-Rush-lead Cowboys with an impressive team effort. They put up 31 points against the Ravens, and on the road to boot. Now they travel across the country to take on the Chargers. L.A. got a much needed win against the Eagles on the road and looks to distance itself from the Raiders and Chiefs. Both Cousins and Herbert are capable of putting up fat numbers through the air, but both teams defend the pass better than the run. This has the potential to be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend.
DFS Player to Watch: Kirk Cousins | QB | $6,100 DraftKings | $7,600 FanDuel
Kirk Cousins went back to his high producing ways last week, despite losing to the Ravens. He tallied 187 yards passing, including a 51-yard bomb to Justin Jefferson, but also threw for 2 touchdowns and no picks. Look for his numbers to pop, especially in the yardage department. Reason being, this game has shootout potential.
EAGLES (3-6) AT BRONCOS (5-4) — 4:25pm ET CBS
Favorite: Denver (-2.5) O/U: 44
The Broncos just put the hurt on the highly favorited Cowboys. And that was after Denver lost the heart and soul of their team, Von Miller, in a trade to the Rams. The Eagles, on the other hand, took the visiting Chargers down to the wire and nearly pulled off the upset. Biggest thing to watch here is whether the Broncos defense can bring the same tenacity and ferocity they did to the Cowboys. They’ll need it against a shifty Jalen Hurts.
DFS Player to Watch: Teddy Bridgewater | WR | $5,500 DraftKings | $7,200 FanDuel
Teddy Bridgewater had himself a respectable game against the Cowboys with 249 yards passing and a touchdown. This time he’s playing at home where the altitude makes life a bit more lethargic for the visitors. Look for Bridgwater to air it out against the Eagles bottom-third coverage unit.
SEAHAWKS (3-5) AT PACKERS (7-2) — 4:25pm ET CBS
Favorite: Green Bay (-3.5) O/U: 49.5
The return of Russell Wilson couldn’t come at a better time as the 3-5 Seahawks travel to Wisconsin to take on the Pack. The big story isn’t just the return of Wilson from his finger injury suffered back on October 7th but also the possible return of Aaron Rodgers from the COVID list after he tested positive last week. Rodgers will be eligible to return the Saturday before the game, assuming he clears protocols. Russell Wilson, who has never won a game in Green Bay, is hoping that doesn’t happen. The Seahawks need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Packers will be looking to keep pace with the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Cardinals.
DFS Player to Watch: Tyler Lockett | WR | $6,500 DraftKings | $7,100 FanDuel
With Wilson returning to the field, expect Tyler Lockett’s numbers to improve. While the entire Seahawks offense’s production took a hit in Wilson’s absence, none probably suffered more than Lockett. Sunday could be vindication.
Sunday, Nov. 14th (Late Slate)
CHIEFS (5-4) AT RAIDERS (5-3) — 8:20pm ET NBC
Favorite: Kansas City (-2.5) O/U: 51.5
This is a pivotal AFC West showdown. The Chiefs have been terrible on both sides of the ball despite their back-to-back wins against the Giants and the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers. Their defense plays well against inferior quarterbacks, but it’s the subpar performances of Patrick Mahomes and the offense that’s concerning. The Raiders, dealt another huge blow after the loss of Henry Ruggs, struggled on the road against the Giants. But that was the outlier to their recent performances. Derek Carr and the Raiders offense will welcome the addition of DeSean Jackson to the mix as the Ruggs void played a major part in their lackluster offense. This should be an exciting game for a variety of reasons, but none more so than each team’s opportunity to diminish the other’s playoff hopes on national TV.
DFS Player to Watch: Darren Waller | TE | $6,300 DraftKings | $7,000 FanDuel
Darren Waller has been a favorite target of Carr’s—thanks to his speed, strength and solid route running. He only has two touchdowns on the season but he also has 470 total yards. He hasn’t averaged less than ten yards a reception all year. Waller’s numbers should only grow this week against an afflicted Chiefs defense that’s ranked 23rd versus tight ends.
Monday, Nov. 15th (MNF)
RAMS (7-2) AT 49ERS (3-5) — 8:15pm ET ESPN
Favorite: Los Angeles (-4) O/U: 49
The Rams and 49ers were both served a slice of humble pie last week. L.A. was humiliated at home by the Derrick Henry-less Titans’ offense. The Niners, with George Kittle back in the lineup, were obliterated by a Cardinals team missing Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green and Chase Edmunds. The 49ers now sit at 3-5 and the Rams at 7-2 trailing the Cardinals for first place in the NFC West. The 49ers haven’t won a game at Levi’s stadium since October 18th, 2020. Their opponent? The Rams on Sunday Night Football. Kyle Shanahan is 4-0 against Sean McVay going back to the 2019 season, but the presence of Stafford—along with the potential debut of Von Miller—make this a much tougher matchup than years past. That’s especially true with a 49ers defense that’s downgraded due to injuries (again).
DFS Player to Watch: Elijah Mitchell | RB | $5,700 DraftKings | $6,500 FanDuel
Elijah Mitchell, at 5.3 yards per carry, has been a blessing for the 49ers. Prior to him they struggled at running back since Raheem Mostert went down in week 1. They’ve now lost Mike McGlinchey for the year at right tackle but the O-line should still be sturdy enough to give Mitchell running lanes. The Rams d-line is graded best against the run by PFF, so this is a highly contrarian play for you GPPers out there.
About the Author: Steven A. Cravens has been a professional sports better and analyst for over a decade. As a former Fox Sports NFL researcher and data logger, he specialized in player profiling and performance statistics.
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all fantasy stats are based on point per reception (PPR) scoring.
