Author: Steve Cravens

Week 4 has juicy matchups in store for NFL DFS fans, namely:

1. Dolphins at Bengals (-4) – Thursday at 8:15 PM ET
   • 3-0 Miami meets a Super Bowl runner-up trying to right its ship
2. Jaguars at Eagles (-6.5) – Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
   • JAX head coach Doug Pederson meets to team that fired him
3. Bills (-3) at Ravens – Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
   • The AFC’s #2 offense visits the #1 offense
4. Chiefs at Buccaneers (-1) – Sunday at 8:20 PM ET
   • Brady faces another marquee QB as both teams try to bounce back from week 3 losses

As always, we start the week with our “under the radar” pick for Thursday night.

How this works

Every week, DFS Hub analyst analyzes one “under the radar” player from each game.

The goal being, to find players with more than a 40% chance of scoring four times their salary. That means a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)] x 4.

The criteria is simple:

1. All players must be $6,900 or less on DraftKings.
2. All players should have the potential and projected opportunities to go 4x NFL DFS value.

Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s vital for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently. So without further delay, below are week 4’s NFL DFS potential best buys.

Tune in weekly for DFS Hub’s exclusive “Under the Radar” NFL player analysis by veteran NFL analyst Steven Cravens. Weekend selections appear here late Friday night.

Photo credit: Icon Sportswire

Week 3 has arrived and it starts with what’s projected to be a low-scoring affair in Cleveland. The Browns will be playing with fury after having blown a 13-point lead to the Jets Sunday, in the last 1:55 of the game no less.

The action gets better on Sunday with the headliners being Buffalo at Miami and Green Bay at Tampa.

As always, we start the week with our “under the radar” pick for Thursday night.

How this works

To help you unearth player values, we turn to DFS Hub analyst Steve Cravens who assesses one “under the radar” player from each game, each week.

The criteria:

1. All players must be $6,900 or less on DraftKings.
2. The player must have the potential and projected opportunities to go 4x NFL DFS value.

The mission is finding players with more than a 50% chance of scoring four times their salary. In other words, a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)] x 4.

Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s a must-do for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently. So without further delay, below are Steve’s calls for week 3.

Tune in weekly for DFS Hub’s exclusive “Under the Radar” NFL player analysis by veteran NFL analyst Steven Cravens.

Photo credit: Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire

Kickoff week in the NFL gave DFS fans lots to chew on…like:

• Maybe it doesn’t pay to fade the crowd
  (Case in point: Michael Pittman Jr. with 30.1 DK Pts, Justin Jefferson with 42.4 and Travis Kelce with 29.1)
• Maybe it doesn’t pay to get too hung up on injuries from prior seasons
  (e.g., Saquon Barkey with 36.4 DK Pts and Michael Thomas with 22.7)
• Maybe switching teams, being cheap ($5,500), low owned (0.4%) and facing a pitiful defense (JAX) does make you a compelling QB (e.g., Carson Wentz with 33.72 DK Pts).

With teams getting their bugs out last week, week 2 should be just as thrilling. We’ll have:

• 15 teams trying to avoid starting 0-2
• A high octane Chargers at Chiefs showdown on Thursday night
• A rare “Monday Night Football” doubleheader.

How this works

To help you unearth player values, we turn to DFS Hub analyst Steve Cravens who assesses one “under the radar” player from each game, each week.

The criteria:

1. All players must be $6,900 or less on DraftKings
2. The player must have the potential and projected opportunities to go 4x NFL DFS value.

The mission is finding players with more than a 50% chance of scoring four times their salary. In other words, a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)] x 4.

Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s a must-do for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently. So without further delay, below are Steve’s calls for week 2.

Tune in weekly for DFS Hub’s exclusive “Under the Radar” NFL player analysis by veteran NFL analyst Steven Cravens.

Photo credit: Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire

The NFL Week 1 season starts with fireworks as the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills visit the Super Bowl champion L.A. Rams.

To help you spot value this season, DFS Hub’s Steve Cravens will be analyzing one “under the radar” player from each game. The criteria:

1. The player must be $6,900 or less on DraftKings
2. The player must have the potential and projected opportunities to go 4x NFL DFS value.

In other words, we’re looking for guys with a better than a 50% chance of scoring four times their salary — i.e., a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)] x 4.

Finding players who go 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s something anyone needs to prioritize if they hope to win tournaments consistently. So without further delay, below is Steve’s first call of the 2022 season. The rest of the week’s selections will post here 3-4 hours after Friday’s injury report.

Tune in weekly for DFS Hub’s exclusive “Under the Radar” NFL player analysis by veteran NFL analyst, Steven Cravens.

The NFL has had wild and exciting seasons but 2021 was truly one for the ages, especially the postseason. Last weekend set the bar for thrilling Championship games and neither contest disappointed…unless you’re a Chiefs or a 49ers fan.

Back in September it became apparent that the Rams were a legitimate Super Bowl contender, having traded away draft picks for Matt Stafford. It became even more obvious after the midseason acquisitions of Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr., whose presence paid off down the stretch. Now the Rams become only the second team to host a Super Bowl in their home stadium, a feat Tom Brady’s Buccaneers achieved for the first time in NFL history last year.

As for the Bengals, they’ve been one of the more surprising NFL stories this millennium. It was just two years ago that they went 2-14, under then rookie head coach Zac Taylor. They then went 4-11-1 after rookie QB Joe Burrow tore both his ACL and MCL. Now here they are in 2021, having gone 10-7, having won the AFC North, having won their first playoff game in thirty years, having upset the number one seeded Titans on the road and having stunned the defending AFC champion Chiefs in their own house. The Bengals may be underdogs on paper, but they’ve earned this Super Bowl berth, their first since 1988. This improbable run can be mainly attributed to one man: Joe Burrow. Yes, Ja’Marr Chase was an inspired draft choice, with Burrow and Chase already having rapport from their LSU days. But it is Burrow that makes this locomotive chug. He is the only first-pick QB to ever lead a team to the Super Bowl in his second season in the NFL.

Sunday, Feb. 13th (Super Bowl LVI)

RAMS (15-5) AT BENGALS (13-7) — 6:30pm ET NBC

Favorite: Los Angeles (-4) O/U: 48.5

Keys to the Game:

The Bengals are already dogs on the matchup card, and a big reason for that is their porous offensive line. That same line allowed Burrow to get sacked nine times in their victory over the Titans. And now it faces the fiercest pass rush in the league, lead by Aaron Donald and Von Miller. In order for the Bengals to have any chance at the upset they must find a way to protect Burrow. That’s far easier said than done and analysts across the NFL are predicting a Burrow sack-fest. Joe Destiny was able side-step several would-be sacks from the Chiefs thanks to his scrambling and elusiveness in the pocket but the Rams defense is a different beast—one that’s far more relentless than the Titans’ or Chiefs’ pass rush. As long as Burrow gets the ball out of his hands quickly and wins time of possession, he and his offense can get this done. And lest we forget, Stafford—with 19 turnovers—makes mistakes. We’re loathe to bet against the mismatch between the Ram’s pass rush and Cincinnati’s front five, but if the Bengals get an early lead, if could give Joey Franchise all the confidence he needs to pull this out.

S.W.O.T. Analaysis

DFS Players to Watch:

• Tee Higgins (WR): When you’re the offensive player of the year or rookie of the year, you attract a lot of coverage. We’ll defer to Higgins who led the Bengals in yards and targets (10) in their last game. He should face a far more favorable corner matchup.
• Rams DST: The best defense in football will pressure Burrow like he’s never been pressured before. Even if the Bengals pull this out, the Rams DST should justify its pricetag.

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About the Author: Steven A. Cravens has been a professional sports better and analyst for over a decade. As a former Fox Sports NFL researcher and data logger, he specialized in player profiling and performance statistics.

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all fantasy stats are based on point per reception (PPR) scoring. For more player selections, check out the free NFL Lineup Builder (now in beta).

NFL DFS predictions post here every week, including projected outcomes and players to watch for every matchup. For more player selections, check out our free NFL Lineup Builder (now in beta).

It’s Championship Sunday in the NFL

What. A. Weekend.

The 2021 Divisional Round was one for the history books. Each game was decided by 6 points or less as time expired, or in overtime. The number one seeds in both conferences, the Titans and Packers, went one and done on walk off field goals. Three out of four road teams won to advance to Championship weekend. It was the kind of weekend that makes casual football fans into devotees.

Last week’s thrilling games left the sports world with plenty to ponder in the coming weeks. Did Rodgers play his last game in a Packers uniform? Will Tom Brady retire, as reports suggest, after being sent home by the Rams? Should the Titans move on from Ryan Tannehill after his three interception meltdown? Those questions will linger for the immediate future. For now, we’ve got four teams remaining and two games left before the glitz and glamor of Super Bowl LVI. Let’s get to the matchups…

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Sunday, Jan. 30th (2 Games)

BENGALS (12-7) AT CHIEFS (14-5) — 3:00pm ET CBS

Favorite: Kansas City (-7) O/U: 54.5

After winning one of the greatest playoff games ever played—against juggernaut Josh Allen and a sensational Bills team—the Chiefs have earned the right to host the AFC title game for the fourth straight season. Their opponent is the red hot Bengals. The Cincinnati cats are playing with house money, entering their first AFC title game since 1988. These two teams played each other in what was nearly a must-win game for both teams back in late December. The Bengals trailed by 21-7 and 28-14 at one point in the game. The Bengals roared back behind inspired play from budding superstar Burrow. He refused to lose, throwing for 446 yards and four touchdowns. Bengals kicker Evan McPherson booted a 20 yard field goal as time expired to win the game 34-31.

Obviously the stakes are much higher now and the regular season is over. But the takeaway from that game is that the Bengals are fully capable of pulling off the upset. The Chiefs are the ones coming in with all the experience, a wild home field advantage and edges (per PFF) in pass blocking, run blocking and tackling. But these Bengals are up for the challenge. Cincy faces the best QB in the game, one that’s laser focused on a Super Bowl trip for the third straight season. To get there, he’ll have to down a feisty Bengals team that’s arrived way ahead of schedule.

DFS Player to Watch: Mercole Hardman

Hardman stepped up with a key TD and overtime catch against Buffalo. He now faces a Bengal’s squad that is garbage against #2 receivers. At only $4,000 on DraftKing’s, and looking to bounce back from a 1-target outing, he may be one of the bargains of this game.

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49ERS (12-7) AT RAMS (14-5) — 6:30pm ET FOX

Favorite: Los Angeles (-3.5) O/U: 46

The sixth seed 49ers just refuse to go away. After being down 17-0 in the first half of week 18 against the very same Rams they’re about to face, they punch their ticket to the playoffs with a 27-24 win in OT. On the other side of the field the Rams easily dispatched their NFC West rival Cardinals and dethroned Tom Brady and the 2020 Super Bowl champion Buccaneers. That said, after leading 27-3 in the third quarter the Rams made mistake after mistake. They let Brady and the Bucs offense tie the game up in the closing minute of regulation. Credit to Matt Stafford because what happened next was the exact reason the Rams sent two first round picks to the Lions for him. Stafford bombed two rockets to Cooper Kupp to get the ball all the way to the Bucs’ ten yard line. As time expired, Gay nailed the game-winning field goal. The knock on Stafford his entire career in the NFL has been that he can’t win playoff games, that he wilts under the pressure. Last week he showed up in a big way with multiple clutch throws. Now he has to live up to his price tag in the NFC title game, a game that takes place in the Super Bowl venue, against a division rival that has beaten them six straight times. The last time the Rams beat the 49ers was in week 17 of 2018. Kyle Shanahan is 7-3 all time against Sean McVay and Jimmy Garoppolo has never lost to the Rams in his time as the 49ers starting QB. Every streak ends at some point and the Rams are desperate to host the Super Bowl in their brand new stadium. So desperate are the Rams that they had Ticketmaster restrict ticket sales to buyers with LA zip codes. Last thing they wanted was another red wave of 49ers fans, like the one that overwhelmed them in week 18. The Rams have an obvious advantage in the air but the 49ers (normally) have an edge on the ground. Problem is, that ground game could hit a wall against the #1 run defense in the business.

DFS Player to Watch: Cooper Kupp

Normally we don’t rush to recommend the most expensive player on the board. This game we must. Kupp is Matty Stafford’s ticket to the Superbowl. He’s the most reliable WR in the game and L.A.’s WR3 Jefferson has a gimpy knee. Kupp averages 114 yard a game. Expect about a dozen targets against San Fran’s porous secondary.

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About the Author: Steven A. Cravens has been a professional sports better and analyst for over a decade. As a former Fox Sports NFL researcher and data logger, he specialized in player profiling and performance statistics.

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all fantasy stats are based on point per reception (PPR) scoring.

NFL DFS predictions post here every week, including projected outcomes and players to watch for every matchup. For more player selections, check out our free NFL Lineup Builder (now in beta).

Wild Card weekend is officially in the bag. For the most part, it was filled with lopsided victories with the Eagles and Steelers looking completely outmatched by the second seeded Buccaneers and Chiefs respectively. That said, the weekend still provided one “wild” game and that was between the sixth seed 49ers and 3rd seed Cowboys. The only road team to beat their hosts nearly beat themselves. In the end, however, it was Dallas’s 14 penalties and poor coaching that ultimately doomed them against the 49ers. Other than that, it was business as usual for the home teams. We now move to the best weekend of playoff football: the Divisional round. Let’s get to the matchups.

Saturday, Jan. 22nd (2 Games)

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BENGALS (11-7) AT TITANS (12-5) — 4:30pm ET CBS

Favorite: Tennessee (-3.5) O/U: 47

The Bengals beat the visiting Las Vegas Raiders 26-19, winning their first playoff game in thirty-one years. The drought is officially over and now Joe Burrow must travel to face the first-seeded Titans. Tennessee gets superstar running back Derrick Henry back, just in time. There’s a chance, however, that Henry’s foot injury could affect his game, leading Mike Vrabel to use him more sparingly than usual. Henry has clearly stayed in shape during his fracture rehab but you don’t return from a four month absence and just come back and dominate. A foot injury generally hinders a back’s ability to cut and accelerate through opposing defenses. The mere fact that Henry will be on the field is an advantage for the Titans, however. It forces the Bengals to game plan for him and adjust their defensive alignments, even if he’s being used as a decoy. The Titans will also have their hands full on defense as the Bengals are no regular season fluke (looking at you, Cardinals). Joe Burrow has matured into a top ten quarterback in the league and this is only his sophomore year. And that’s despite coming off both an ACL and MCL injury a year ago. The inspired drafting of Ja’Marr Chase, a former LSU teammate of Joe’s, has proven a stroke of genius as the two have continued to build their rapport week after week. Add in a solid running game lead by Joe Mixon and the Bengals have the perfect offensive trio to challenge the Titans’ opportunistic defense.

DFS Player to Watch: Julio Jones

The Titan’s #2 receiver has a significantly better matchup than WR1, A.J. Brown, and Jones is just coming off a solid 9-target-one-TD performance. At just $4,700 (DraftKings) Jones has favorable potential to 3x his salary. That’s especially true if Tennessee falls behind to Burrow’s offense, and/or Derek Henry isn’t extensively used.

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49ERS (11-7) AT PACKERS (13-4) — 8:15pm ET FOX

Favorite: Green Bay (-6) O/U: 47.5

The 49ers stunned the Cowboys in Arlington last week. Their running game pounded the Cowboys defense into submission and their defense, even without Nick Bosa for two quarters and Fred Warner down the final stretch, stifled the Cowboys’ number one ranked offense. Now San Fran hits the road for a divisional round rematch with the number one seeded Green Bay Packers. It’s the ninth playoff meeting between these two storied franchises. As it stands the playoff wins are split 4-4 so the victor of this game will earn the head to head tiebreaker going forward. The Packers are strong favorites for this game and they should be. They’ll not only be playing on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field but they’re also healthier on both sides of the ball, have just about the best QBs in football and boast a shut-down pass defense. That said, the 49ers still present the Packers with a worthy challenge. Their passing game is graded #1 in the NFL by PFF and their aggressive pass rush keeps QBs on edge. And San Fran’s running game, ranked 7th in yards per game, has an edge over Green Bay’s middling run defense. The matchup is far from a gimme for the Packers but if they can provide Rodgers with enough time to pass, Green Bay should be hosting the NFC Championship game next weekend.

DFS Player to Watch: George Kittle

Green Bay has flustered receivers and 49ers’ QB Jimmy G is going to be harassed all night. He’ll be looking for short passing plays more often, and that’s saying a lot for a guy whose bottom quartile in intended air yards. Kittle, a guy who plays 95% of snaps, will be just the solution. San Fran hasn’t used him much, which means he won’t be as obvious on Green Bay’s radar. And of all ball-catching positions, the Packers are worst at defend tight ends.

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Sunday, Jan. 23rd (2 Games)

RAMS (13-5) AT BUCCANEERS (14-4) — 3:00pm ET NBC

Favorite: Tampa Bay (-3) O/U: 48.5

The Rams vanquished the Cardinals, their NFC West rivals, with ease on Monday night. Now they travel east to Florida to challenge the reigning Super Bowl champs. These two teams met back in week 3 in Los Angeles with the Rams handily beating the Bucs 34-24. And the game wasn’t even that close. Neither team is the same team they were back in week 3. And for the Bucs that’s a bad thing. Offensively Tampa is in a bit of a bind. They’ve lost Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown for the year, one to injury the other due to megalomania. And their running back situation is far from what it was this time last year—Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones are both nursing injuries. A casualty of Tampa’s win against the Eagles was All-Pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs and Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen suffering ankle injuries. They may not be 100% for this one. If the Buccaneers are to win, they’ll need Brady to be at his absolute best because the Rams defense, lead by Aaron Donald up front and Jalen Ramsey in the secondary, will torment him if Brady’s offensive line can’t hold up. The game will be in Tampa Bay this time but that should do little to affect the Rams’ high octane passing attack. The Bucs’ fate will largely hinge on their coverage unit, graded 2nd best in football by PFF. Fun fact: Sean McVay is 2-1 against Bruce Arians and those two victories both came against Brady—at home and on the road. It’s never wise to count Tom Brady out in a playoff game but the fact remains that the Rams will present him and the rest of the Buccaneers with their stiffest test of the season.

DFS Player to Watch: Leonard Fournette (RB)

Playoff Lenny (hamstring) is back from Injured Reserve and Ronald Jones II (ankle) is still out. The Rams run defense is #1 in the league, but its pass defense is weakest against running backs—and Fournette has averaged 7.5 targets in his last four games. With Brady under constant pressure from the Rams front, Fournette’s ball catching prowess could act as a relief valve in the wings. That’s in addition to Lenny’s 100-yard rushing potential on the ground.

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BILLS (12-6) AT CHIEFS (13-5) — 6:30pm ET CBS

Favorite: Kansas City (-2) O/U: 54.5

This is the clash of the titans that the NFL was hoping we’d see come playoffs. It’s the NFL equivalent of Muhammad Ali vs. Joe Frazier and we all get to sit back and savor it on Sunday night. Both teams are operating at an high level offensively (with KC ranking #2 and BUF #3 in PPG over the last 4 games). Consider that against the Patriots last week the Bills became the first team in NFL postseason history to score a touchdown on every single one of their offensive possessions, minus them taking a knee on their final possession. That was against a Bill Belichick defense in the blistering cold and wind of Orchard park, New York. Keep in mind that the Bills went into Kansas City back in October and throttled the Chiefs in Arrowhead 38-20. We’ve said this before, previous matchups typically don’t matter in the playoffs (as both teams usually adjust their game plans against each other regardless). But the Bills have the added motivation of avenging their AFC Championship loss last year to these very same Chiefs in the very same stadium. If Mahomes is anything less than great, the Bills have the defense and firepower to turn off his lights in a hurry. Winning playoff games in Arrowhead isn’t easy but if any team is equipped to do it, it’s Buffalo. Mahomes vs Allen could well be the AFC’s next great quarterback rivalry and this second installment should be a thriller.

DFS Player to Watch: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB)

Buffalo simply out-matches KC when it comes to defending against the pass. The Chiefs may have to rely more on a shorter passing game, and with RB Darrel Williams nursing an injured toe, CEH could be the recipient of added targets. With four week’s “rest”, a full week of unrestricted practice, and at only $5,200, Edwards-Helaire is a relative bargain.

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About the Author: Steven A. Cravens has been a professional sports better and analyst for over a decade. As a former Fox Sports NFL researcher and data logger, he specialized in player profiling and performance statistics.

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all fantasy stats are based on point per reception (PPR) scoring.

NFL DFS predictions post here every week, including projected outcomes and players to watch for every matchup. For more player selections, check out our free NFL Lineup Builder (now in beta).

Saturday, Jan. 15th (2 Games)

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RAIDERS (10-7) AT BENGALS (10-7) — 4:30pm ET NBC

Favorite: Cincinnati (-5) O/U: 49

The year’s first playoff matchup pits two franchises that haven’t seen the postseason in over half a decade: the Raiders and Bengals. You’ve got to hand it to the Raiders and their coaching staff for how this season culminated. Few foresaw a playoff berth for the silver and black after Jon Gruden abruptly resigned due to scandal back in October, followed by the loss of their best receiver to a senseless tragedy. Most teams might have crumbled under that adversity. Instead, after starting out 6-7, they finished with four straight wins and find themselves in the playoffs for the first time in five seasons, this time with a healthy Derek Carr under center. Their matchup is none other than the 10-7 Cincinnati Bengals, 2021 AFC North champions. The Bengals, much like their wild card opponent, exceeded all expectations this year behind a blistering offense spearheaded by Joe Burrow. Burrow’s rapport with rookie sensation Ja’Marr Chase and the ground and pound running game of Joe Mixon helped Cincy score the 8th most points per game this season (Vegas was 18th). Couple that with an improving defense and you have a legitimate threat in the AFC. The Raiders’ best chance at an upset is for their offense to play keep away from Joe Burrow. To do that they’ll rely largely on TE Darren Waller, who returned in week 18 after a 6 week injury. Waller’s best game of the season (116 yards) was against Cincinnati in week 11. But even with a solid lead you’re not safe from the vaunted Bengals’ offense. Just ask the Chiefs how their double digit lead over the Bengals worked out in week 17. Winner: Bengals.

DFS Player to Watch: Darren Waller (TE, Raiders) — Waller is the team’s best ball catcher and toughest matchup for defenders. With Cincy giving up the 4th most FPs to tight ends, he should easily eclipse 10 targets. Waller has 100-yard potential and QB Carr should look for him at least once or twice in the end zone.

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PATRIOTS (10-7) AT BILLS (11-6) — 8:15pm ET CBS

Favorite: Buffalo (-4) O/U: 44

The football gods have gifted us with Pats/Bills III, the first playoff matchup between these two AFC East rivals in 58 years. The two teams split the season series with the road teams taking both victories. Buffalo and New England rank #1 and #2 in fewest points allowed. The Bills have been playing solid football to close the season, winning four straight—including a road victory against the Patriots back in week 16. The Patriots haven’t been nearly as sharp as they’ve lost three of their last five, mostly due to costly mistakes by Mac Jones and uncharacteristically sloppy play from their formidable defense. It’s safe to assume that Bill Belichick will do all he can to fluster Josh Allen but New England’s pass rush isn’t the same caliber as Buffalo’s. It’s been a long time since the Patriots were underdogs in a playoff game but here they are. Mac Jones will have to shake off his rocky season finale against the Dolphins and get ready for the intensity and pressure of playoff football on the road. If he has another subpar performance out of the gate, Allen (the NFL’s fantasy point leader) could build an insurmountable lead. Winner: Bills.

DFS Player to Watch: Devin Singletary (RB, Bills) — Singletary tallied 6 TDS in his last four games and clearly has his groove back. With wind and cold in Buffalo tonight, Buffalo will attack the Patriots’ weakest defensive attribute, it’s run stopping. Singletary, who’s established himself as the team’s goal-line back, will get a healthy allotment of carries. He’s had 84 in the last four weeks alone.

Sunday, Jan. 16th (3 Games)

EAGLES (9-8) AT BUCCANEERS (13-4) — 1:00pm ET FOX

Favorite: Tampa Bay (-8.5) O/U: 46

The early 2000’s rivalry between the Buccaneers and Eagles gets a new installment as the seventh seeded Eagles take on Tom Brady’s second seeded Buccaneers. The Eagles have quietly snuck into the postseason with a balanced offense led by dual-threat Jalen Hurts. Their defense is what gets them into trouble, however. It’s allowed more points to opposing offenses than 62% of NFL teams. Meanwhile, Tampa has scored the second most points in the NFL. If there’s one Eagles stat that’s particularly alarming it’s that all eight losses came against teams with a winning record. That doesn’t bode well as they take on 13-4 Brady in Tampa, a man who rarely loses at home. Still, despite winning the NFC South and securing the two seed in the NFC, the Bucs are far from the 2020 Bucs in health and efficiency. The loss of Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown for the season is a serious blow, as are its injured running backs, Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones. Defense-wise the Bucs are vulnerable in the secondary but their run defense is still one of the best in the league. Winner: Buccaneers.

DFS Player to Watch: Ron Gronkowski (TE, Buccaneers) — With 22 mph winds, Brady may not want to air it out as often. But Tampa throws more than any other team so it’ll need a close target. Who better than Gronk, who’s coming off two 100+ yard performances and is always playoff ready. Gronk should get sufficient looks given that Tampa’s top two RBs are out and they only have one strong receiver left (Evans).

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49ERS (10-7) AT COWBOYS (12-5) — 4:30pm ET CBS

Favorite: Dallas (-3) O/U: 51

Speaking of rivalries renewed, how about the Niners and Cowboys meeting in the postseason for the first time since the January 1995 NFC Championship game back. The Cowboys and 49ers have a long and storied rivalry that goes back all the way to 1970 when these two teams first met in the NFC Championship game. The 2021 version of these storied franchises stack up quite well. Few would argue against the Cowboys being the more talented team on paper but the 49ers have plenty of blue chip players on both sides of the ball. Both teams can run the ball, air it out and hit the quarterback. Dallas has allowed 130 rush yards per game since week 9 so its key to victory will be stopping Eli Mitchell on the ground and making Jimmy G beat them with a busted thumb. Barring that it could be curtains on their Super Bowl hopes. The Niners love to sap their opposing defense’s souls with draining drives that can take the better part of a quarter.

Fun fact: “The Catch”, the 1981 NFC Championship game between these two titans where Dwight Clark caught the game winning TD to win the game, occurred 40 years ago on January 10th, 1982. Both teams could be using that iconic moment as motivation tonight. Winner: 49ers

DFS Player to Watch: Brandon Aiyuk (WR, 49ers) — Dallas is the best in the business at defending opponents’ #1 receiver and as WR2, Aiyuk can produce. He’s coming off a 107 yard performance against the Rams. Given the 49ers may have to deviate from their run-biased gameplan to keep up, Aiyuk is solid value at just a $5,200 (DraftKings) salary.

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STEELERS (9-7-1) AT CHIEFS (12-5) — 8:15pm ET NBC

Favorite: Kansas City (-12.5) O/U: 46

In fifteen years at the helm, the Steelers Mike Tomlin has yet to suffer a losing season. Think about how remarkable that is, especially with the injury riddled rosters he’s been saddled with in recent memory. The 2021 Steelers’ offense has been borderline unwatchable, outside of Najee Harris blossoming into one of the hardest hitting backs in the game. They now meet one of the hottest teams in the second half of the season — on the road. Barring an unexpected collapse from the Chiefs this will be Ben Roethlisberger’s last game in the NFL. It’s a borderline miracle the Steelers even made the playoffs at all considering how abysmal their passing offense has been all year. The Steelers were crushed 36-10 by the Chiefs in Arrowhead on December 26th. The playoffs are an entirely different beast but the Steelers are still heavy underdogs. Their defense, despite a solid pass rush, likely won’t be able to cover Mahomes’s targets adequately. Winner: Chiefs

DFS Player to Watch: Najee Harris (RB, Steelers) — If KC has a weakness on defense, it’s defending passes to running backs. The Steeler’s rookie had 1,667 all-purpose yards this season. He should see above-average targets as Rothlisberger is forced into shorter passes.

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Monday, Jan. 17th (Monday Game)

CARDINALS (11-6) AT RAMS (12-5) — 8:15pm ET ABC

Favorite: Los Angeles (-4) O/U: 49.5

Cardinals vs Rams III will be played in SoFi Stadium after the Rams won the NFC West even with their inexplicable OT loss to the 49ers last week. Meanwhile, the Cardinals lost to the Seahawks at home 38-30. The Cardinals beat the Rams in L.C. back in week 4 but lost to the Rams at home in week 14. Truthfully, the Cardinals are probably relieved this game will be on the road as their away record this year is 8-1, versus 3-5 at home record. The key to victory for the Cards will be forcing Matt Stafford to make turnovers, which he’s been good at lately. In the Rams’ last three games Stafford has thrown at least two interceptions per game. On the season he has seventeen interceptions, tied for most in the league with Trevor Lawrence. The Cardinals will no doubt dial up the pressure on defense sending Chandler Jones and the newly reinstated J.J. Watt after Stafford as often as possible. On the other side of the field the Cardinals will need Kyler Murray to utilize both his arm and legs for this one. Aaron Donald and the NFL’s #1 pass rush will be hunting him like a dog, especially on obvious passing downs. NFC West games have been some of the most thrilling and exciting and this one should be no different.  Winner: Rams

DFS Player to Watch: Odell Beckham (WR, Rams) — The Cardinals are much worse at covering secondary receivers than the WR1, and L.A.’s WR2 Van Jefferson has a bum shoulder (check the NFL DFS injury report before the game for his status). That leaves WR3 Beckham—who loves the prime time spotlight—with favorable potential. His cheaper salary is a bonus.

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About the Author: Steven A. Cravens has been a professional sports better and analyst for over a decade. As a former Fox Sports NFL researcher and data logger, he specialized in player profiling and performance statistics.

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all fantasy stats are based on point per reception (PPR) scoring.

NFL DFS predictions post here every week, including projected outcomes and players to watch for every matchup. For more player selections, check out our free NFL Lineup Builder (now in beta).

Saturday, Jan. 8th (2 Games)

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CHIEFS (11-5) AT BRONCOS (7-9) — 4:30pm ET ABC

Favorite: Kansas City (-10) O/U: 44

The Chiefs suffered a stunning last-minute loss to the surging Bengals who rallied down 21-0 to topple the pride of Kansas City 34-31 in one of the season’s most edge-of-your-seat games. At 11-5 the Chiefs can still clinch the first seed in the AFC but they’ll have to down the 7-9 Broncos and have the 4-12 Texans sweep the Titans. The Chiefs still need to handle their business either way against a middling Denver squad. The Broncos once again had a subpar year, not having made the playoffs since 2016. Head coach Vic Fangio will try hard to close the year with a win to stay in President John Elway’s good graces.

DFS Player to Watch: Patrick Mahomes | QB | $7,500 DraftKings | $8,500 FanDuel

Patrick Mahomes had another efficient day against the Bengals with 259 yards and 2 touchdowns. With a 10:1 TD/INT ratio in his last four games, he’ll likely put up even better numbers on primetime. The Broncos are vulnerable to the pass and a mid-tier defense at best.

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COWBOYS (11-5) AT EAGLES (9-7) — 8:15pm ET ABC

Favorite: Dallas (-7) O/U: 42.5

Both the Cowboys and Eagles have already punched their tickets to the 2021 playoffs with the former locking up the NFC East title but there is still plenty at stake for both teams. The Cowboys may have won the division but another win would increase their chances at a top 2 or 3 seed in the conference with a little help from other teams on Sunday. Dallas is the highest graded offense in the NFL, according to PFF. The Eagles, meanwhile, are the fourth best rushing team in the last four weeks, with a strong pass-rush but weak run-D. They’re playing for a higher wild card spot and would temporarily take over the sixth seed with a win. An Eagles loss would almost assuredly make them the seventh seed so the Cowboys should expect nothing but their best come Saturday.

DFS Player to Watch: Dak Prescott | QB | $6,800 DraftKings | $7,700 FanDuel

We flagged Dak Prescott for two straight weeks now. This will make it three. Last week, in a loss, he threw for 226 yards and three touchdowns. This week he faces a bottom-half pass defense that’s vulnerable to the run. Elliott’s likely success on the ground should keep Prescott’s passing lanes open.

Sunday, Jan. 9th (Early Games)

BENGALS (10-6) AT BROWNS (7-9) — 1:00pm ET FOX

Favorite: Cincinnati (-3) O/U: 41

The Browns look awful. Thankfully they only have one more game to play and it’s against a team they manhandled earlier in the year. Now that they’ve won the AFC North, the Bengals will sit multiple starters including Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon. They’d love a higher playoff seed but by starting QB Brandon Allen, that won’t come easy. Allen averaged just 185 passing yards in his five fill-in starts for Joe Burrow last year. Their come-from-behind victory against the Chiefs was indicative of just how far this team has come.

DFS Player to Watch: Nick Chubb | RB | $7,900 DraftKings | $8,200 FanDuel

With backup Case Keenum at QB and Kareem Hunt questionable (limit in practice all week), Chubb should get ample carries to end out the year. Cincy is only average in defending against the run and Chubb is second only to Johnathan Taylor in yards after contact.

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PACKERS (13-3) AT LIONS (2-13-1) — 1:00pm ET FOX

Favorite: Green Bay (-2.5) O/U: 42.5

The Packers locked up the first seed in the NFC and can now rest some starters against a Lions team that’s had their eye on 2022 since October. If Green Bay’s main offensive starters do play, expect them out by the second half. To the Lions’ credit they have never stopped fighting any opponent, regardless of score. While the Lions’ season has been filled with heartbreaking losses and plenty of lopsided affairs, the team puts out their best and has upset potential against Green Bay’s second string.

DFS Player to Watch: Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | $6,800 DraftKings | $7,500 FanDuel

Amon-Ra St. Brown has had at least 90 yards receiving and a touchdown in the last three games he’s played. His targets have been double-digit for weeks. He’s a solid fantasy option against a GB defense that’ll be resting some talent.

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BEARS (6-10) AT VIKINGS (7-9) — 1:00pm ET FOX

Favorite: Minnesota (-2.5) O/U: 44.5

What do the Bears and Vikings have in common besides playing in the NFC North? They’ve both been eliminated from playoff contention and both will likely be looking for new head coaches come Monday morning. The Bears, who start Andy Dalton at QB, are merely playing for pride—like the Vikings. The Vikings are a more talented team offensively and they’re also graded higher defensively by PFF. Playing at home, WR Jefferson and RB Cook should be able to manhandle Chicago.

DFS Player to Watch: David Montgomery | RB | $6,800 DraftKings | $7,600 FanDuel

David Montgomery had a solid afternoon against the Giants with 64 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Look for him to get plenty of carries against the Vikings on Sunday. Minnesota’s defense is ranked 21st at stopping the run, per PFF. Montgomery could easily 3x his salary, as he’s done the last two weeks.

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WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (6-10) AT GIANTS (4-12) — 1:00pm ET FOX

Favorite: Washington (-6.5) O/U: 38

Washington and the Giants have both been eliminated from playoff contention but, unlike the Bears and Vikings, both organizations should keep their head coaches for 2022. Washington has gone through plenty of upheaval both on the field and behind the scenes and Ron Rivera has done an incredible job keeping his squad in the mix. A season ending win against the lowly Giants would go a long way to carrying positive momentum into 2022.

DFS Player to Watch: Saquon Barkley | RB | $6,100 DraftKings | $6,400 FanDuel

Saquon Barkley rushed for 102 yards against a stout Bears defensive front last week. The former #2 pick will desperately want to keep momentum going into next season. He should have no issues doing that against the Washington banged-up run defense. And the blue men will need him with backup QB Jake Fromm under center.

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COLTS (9-7) AT JAGUARS (2-14) — 1:00pm ET CBS

Favorite: Indianapolis (-15.5) O/U: 44

The Colts desperately need a win after losing to the Raiders at home last week. This week, the NFL schedule makers have blessed them with a gimme. The Jaguars have been all-in on searching for their next head coach since the highly publicized firing of Urban Meyer. And with a top-two pick in their grasp it would serve them well to roll over and let the Colts take the W. The Colts are fully capable of making noise in the playoffs but in order to ensure their entry into the postseason they need to handle their business against the Jags. If the Jags are able to put up a fight against the Colts, that could be a bad omen for Indianapolis going forward.

DFS Player to Watch: Carson Wentz | QB | $5,800 DraftKings | $7,200 FanDuel

Carson Wentz returned in time for the game against the Raiders and had a solid day with 148 yards and a touchdown. The Jags secondary is the NFL equivalent of Swiss cheese, giving up the 2nd most points per game behind Washington, these last four weeks. Given everything that’s on the line, Wentz should have one of his best games of the year.

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STEELERS (8-7-1) AT RAVENS (8-8) — 1:00pm ET CBS

Favorite: Baltimore (-5.5) O/U: 42

Big Ben had his final game at Heinz Field turn out exactly as we all expected, as a win. The Steelers defense was nothing short of lethal as they sacked Mayfield nine times, four of them by T.J. Watt. The Steelers’ playoff hopes are technically alive but the stars must align. In order to make it they have to win against the Ravens and hope for a Colts loss to the Jags. Unlikely but they’ll still look to finish with a 9-win season. The Ravens are also in a must-win situation after losing last minute to the Rams last week. John Harbaugh’s guys will no doubt be up for the challenge but given QB Huntley gets the start, and given how many other games must go their way, the playoffs are a long shot.

DFS Player to Watch: Najee Harris | RB | $7,200 DraftKings | $8,500 FanDuel

Harris was terrific against the Browns last week, rushing for 188 yards and a touchdown to put an exclamation mark on the night. The Raven have a capable run defense but in the last four weeks Harris has run for 90+ yards three times. He should also be good for 4 or more receptions.

TITANS (11-4) AT TEXANS (8-7) — 1:00pm ET CBS

Favorite: Tennessee (-10.5) O/U: 43

The Titans, despite losing Derrick Henry for most of the season and suffering various other injuries and absences to other key players, find themselves one win away from clinching the first seed in the AFC. All that stands in their way is the 4-12 Houston Texans. What makes it interesting is that Houston has already handed them a loss. The Texans are coming off of a 23-7 defeat to the Niners but they’ve shown vast improvements across the board since the beginning of the year. This has trap game written all over it but the Titans already fell into that trap earlier in the year. And double-digit spreads rarely lie.

DFS Player to Watch: Ryan Tannehill | QB | $6,000 DraftKings | $7,300 FanDuel

Ryan Tannehill has not been stellar, throwing for just 120 yards and two touchdowns last week, albeit against one of the hottest defenses in the league. Moreover, he had a disaster against the Texans the last time they played. But with so much on the line and his receiving core back in the fold, he’ll shoot for playoff momentum and locking down the top seed in the AFC. With the NFL’s 2nd worst coverage unit, Houston should help him do that.

Sunday, Jan. 9th (Afternoon Games)

SAINTS (8-8) AT FALCONS (7-9) — 4:25pm ET FOX

Favorite: New Orleans (-4.5) O/U: 40

The Saints, somehow, find themselves at 8-8 and on the brink of a playoff berth. While they need some help from the Rams to get in, they first must handle their business against the Falcons. Atlanta edged them 27-25 their last meeting. A loss to the Falcons will put the Saints’ 2021 season on ice. The Falcons put up a serious fight against the Bills but were ultimately vanquished. The Falcons will be playing at home and would love nothing more than to ruin their division rival’s postseason hopes. New Orleans’ defense outclasses Atlanta’s by a longshot, which should force Ryan into making enough mistakes to lose.

DFS Player to Watch: Matt Ryan | QB | $5,200 DraftKings | $6,400 FanDuel

Matt Ryan could be the difference maker in this matchup as he knows Dennis Allen’s defense just as well as any opponent the Saints face. Keep in mind that the last time these two teams faced in New Orleans Ryan threw for 343 yards and two touchdowns. He should have another big day here.

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JETS (4-12) AT BILLS (10-6) — 4:25pm ET CBS

Favorite: Buffalo (-16.5) O/U: 43.5

The Bills have found their groove again and will now try to tie up the AFC east with a win over the New York Jets. Buffalo throttled New York 45-17 earlier in the season. The Jets have competed hard in their recent games but the Bills are not only more talented but motivated to steal back the division from the pesky Patriots. For the Jets it’s all about building for the future. With the NFL’s second worst defense (as graded by PFF), that starts with taking one more loss, getting yet another top-five draft pick and preparing for a brighter 2022.

DFS Player to Watch: Josh Allen | QB | $8,100 DraftKings | $8,800 FanDuel

Josh Allen had his worst game of the season against the Falcons and yet the Bills still won convincingly. Allen is nonetheless the NFL’s QB1. He rarely follows up a poor performance with another dud so expect his 120-yard, 3 INT performance to be long forgotten by the time the Bills take the field against the Jets.

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49ERS (9-7) AT RAMS (12-4) — 4:25pm ET FOX

Favorite: Los Angeles (-4) O/U: 44.5

The 49ers took care of business against the Texans with Trey Lance under center. With Garoppolo getting the start this week, they still control their playoff fate. Win against the Rams and they’re in. Lose and they better hope the Saints lose too. The Rams have the NFC West crown to play for and will be doing their best to not only win it but to avoid being swept by the 49ers for three straight seasons. Plenty at stake in this matchup and it should make for an entertaining battle.

DFS Player to Watch: Elijah Mitchell | RB | $6,000 DraftKings | $8,000 FanDuel

Elijah Mitchell returned in a big way against the Texans with 119 rushing yards and 11 additional receiving yards with a touchdown. Shanahan loves to run the ball against the Rams so expect Mitchell to get plenty of carries.

PATRIOTS (10-6) AT DOLPHINS (8-8) — 4:25pm ET CBS

Favorite: New England (-6.5) O/U: 40

The Dolphins became the first team in NFL history to lose seven straight games and then win seven straight games. Unfortunately those wins meant next to nothing as they were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs after a 34-3 loss to the Titans. The Patriots need to avenge their week-one loss to the Dolphins if they want any shot at winning the AFC east from the Bills. But winning in Miami has proven difficult for Belichick’s team in recent memory. The Dolphins might be out of the postseason dance but rest assured they’d love nothing more than to prevent the Patriots from winning the division.

DFS Player to Watch: Mac Jones | RB | $5,400 DraftKings | $7,000 FanDuel

Mac Jones feasted on the Jags by throwing for 227 yards and three touchdowns, a big bounce back from his debacle against the Bills the week previous. The Pats need his ‘A’ game if they’re to beat a Dolphins defense, graded 7th best by PFF.

SEAHAWKS (6-10) AT CARDINALS (11-5) — 4:25pm ET FOX

Favorite: Arizona (-6.5) O/U: 48

The Seahawks are in the unfortunate position of not having a first-round draft pick to look forward to in 2022. That’s despite being just 6-10 and fourth in the NFC West. There’s more pressing issues than that at hand however: will this be Russell Wilson’s last game as a Seahawk? Will this be Pete Carroll’s last day as head coach of the Seahawks? These are questions that will linger throughout the game as they try to play spoiler for the Cardinals. Arizona is looking to win the NFC West for the first time since 2015. The Cards need this win badly as a loss would relegate them to the wild card bracket as opposed to hosting a playoff game. The Cardinals won handily in Seattle back in November with Colt McCoy as their QB. Hence, they are favorites with Murray under center. Then again, if this is truly Wilson’s last game as a Seahawk, he won’t want his tenure to end with a loss.

DFS Player to Watch: Russell Wilson | QB | $6,300 DraftKings | $7,500 FanDuel

Russell Wilson threw for 236 yards and four touchdowns against the Lions. With the potential to play spoiler on the road, and with this potentially being his last hurrah in Seattle, expect another big stat line against a flagging Cardinals defense.

PANTHERS (5-11) AT BUCCANEERS (12-4) — 4:25pm ET CBS

Favorite: Tampa Bay (-8) O/U: 41.5

The Buccaneers survived a scare against the Jets as Brady rallied—down 24-10—to win 28-24 in the game’s closing seconds. That was hardly the most dramatic occurrence at Metlife stadium, however. At the end of the third quarter, Antonio Brown took off his jersey, chucked it into the stands and then jogged off the field — all but quitting on his team. The team must move forward amid this drama against one of the NFL’s better pass-rushing D-lines. Brown’s talents will be missed considering the absence of Chris Godwin. Despite all this, the Bucs should sweep the Panthers and earn a top seed in the NFC.

DFS Player to Watch: Tom Brady | QB | $7,500 DraftKings | $8,100 FanDuel

Tom Brady did Tom Brady things as he led a depleted Bucs offense, down 17 points in the second half, to win 28-24. His stat line? 410 yards, 3 touchdowns and only 1 INT. He should finish the regular season strong against a Carolina team that’s allowed the 8th most PPG in the last four weeks.

Sunday, Jan. 9th (Late Game)

CHARGERS (9-7) AT RAIDERS (9-7) — 8:20pm ET NBC

Favorite: Los Angeles (-3) O/U: 49.5

You want high stakes? This game is not only the final divisional match between two heated rivals but it could also decide who advances to the playoffs. The Chargers won the previous meeting back in Los Angeles, a game that turned out to be one of Gruden’s last as Raiders head coach. They’ll now seek the season sweep to punch their ticket to the postseason. One has to give the Raiders credit. You suffer the resignation of your coach early on and then lose your best receiver to a completely avoidable tragedy. Yet, here they are, on the precipice of their first playoff berth since 2016. There’s a possibility that the outcomes of earlier games will render the winner of this one moot, however.

DFS Player to Watch: Justin Herbert | QB | $ DraftKings | $ FanDuel

Justin Herbert threw for 237 yards and two touchdowns against the Broncos, a nice bounce back from the disaster against the Texans the previous week. The Chargers will need him at his best for this one.

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About the Author: Steven A. Cravens has been a professional sports better and analyst for over a decade. As a former Fox Sports NFL researcher and data logger, he specialized in player profiling and performance statistics.

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all fantasy stats are based on point per reception (PPR) scoring.

NFL DFS predictions post here every week, including projected outcomes and players to watch for every matchup. For more player selections, check out our free NFL Lineup Builder (now in beta).

Sunday, Jan. 2nd (Early Games)

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FALCONS (7-8) AT BILLS (9-6) — 1:00pm ET FOX

Favorite: Buffalo (-14.5) O/U: 44

Both teams got big wins last week. The Falcons pulled one off against the Lions to mathematically keep their playoff hopes alive. The Bills got a massive road win against the Patriots and at least temporarily lay claim to the AFC East crown. The Bills cannot look past any opponent given how tight the AFC/AFC East race is. In order for the Falcons to pull off the wild road upset they need, their 21st-ranked offense (in the last 4 games) will somehow need to exhaust Buffalo’s defense, ranked 13th in the last four games. That’s highly unlikely of course. Then again, ask the Chargers how their matchup with the Texans went last week.

DFS Player to Watch: Josh Allen | QB | $8,000 DraftKings | $8,800 FanDuel

Josh Allen threw for 314 yards, 3 touchdowns and no picks against the vaunted Patriots defense. He added another 64 yards rushing. He should slice and dice a floundering Falcons defense that’s allowed the 7th most passing yards in their last four games. Atlanta is also down two starters in its secondary.

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GIANTS (4-11) AT BEARS (5-10) — 1:00pm ET CBS

Favorite: Chicago (-6) O/U: 37.5

The Giants suffered one of week 16’s more lopsided defeats, getting crushed by the Eagles 10-34. On the other hand, the Bears pulled off a stunning upset of the Seahawks on the road, despite a two score deficit in the fourth quarter. Chicago’s revolving QB door will probably feature Andy Dalton as a starter this week with Fields limited in practice. He’d face off against a potential Mike Glennon / Jake Fromm platoon at QB. Ironically, the Bears infamously signed Glennon to a massive contract the same year they drafted Mitch Trubisky second overall in 2017. While both teams are eliminated from the playoffs the Bears have added motivation as they don’t have a first round pick this year thanks to the Justin Fields draft trade last April. That pick belongs to, wait for it, the Giants. The Bears would like to make that pick go further down the draft board so expect Chicago to once again go all out in what could be Matt Nagy’s penultimate game as coach.

DFS Player to Watch: Cole Kmet | TE | $3,400 DraftKings | $5,000 FanDuel

Kmet has averaged 6.5 targets snd 45 yards/game in his last four appearances and Dalton may have to lean on him in his first game back at QB. Moreover, the blue men are just average in defending against tight ends. Kmet is certainly not the best DFS tight end on the slate but at $3,400, he could hit 3x value, particularly if he ends his end zone drought.

CHIEFS (11-4) AT BENGALS (9-6) — 1:00pm ET CBS

Favorite: Kansas City (-5) O/U: 49.5

The Chiefs have been unstoppable for nearly eight weeks. In the last four games they’ve scored more than anyone. K.C. now meets the Bengals who are coming off a massive win against the Ravens. Joe Burrow made Bengals history in that one, throwing for a record 525 yards, 4 touchdowns and zero picks with a rating of 143.2. An otherworldly performance. Burrow will have his hands full dealing with the Chiefs’ formidable secondary (graded 4th best by PFF). The Chiefs will also have to be on their toes offensively as the Bengals defense is no pushover at home. This may just be a playoff preview between the two AFC hopefuls.

DFS Player to Watch: Joe Burrow | QB | $6,900 DraftKings | $7,700 FanDuel

With a stat line of 525 yards and 4 touchdowns, it’s hard to choose anyone but Burrow at home, despite the bevy of offensive talent on both teams. He’s the most accurate QB in the NFL on long throws. And he’ll likely have to stick to the air to keep pace with Mahomes.

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DOLPHINS (8-7) AT TITANS (10-5) — 1:00pm ET CBS

Favorite: Tennessee (-3.5) O/U: 41

The 2021 Miami Dolphins have officially made history: they are the first team to ever go on a seven-game losing streak and then turn around and go on a seven-game winning streak. That’s mind-boggling when you stop and think about it. To make the postseason they have to win out and it starts with a visit to the 10-5 Titans — who are still without Derrick Henry. Ryan Tannehill would no doubt love to eliminate his former team from the playoffs and get the first seed in the AFC. Despite his motivation, it won’t be easy. The Dolphins defense has been nothing short of suffocating during their win streak. And the Titans run-heavy offense is still without its heart and soul, Derrick Henry.

DFS Player to Watch: A.J. Brown | WR | $7,200 DraftKings | $7,500 FanDuel

A.J. Brown was a menace against the 49ers secondary last week, amassing 145 yards receiving and a touchdown. He leads the Titans with 27% target share and will benefit from Julio Jones being out this week. The Dolphins pass rush and coverage are top-10 but if Tannehill can get the ball out fast, it could be a long day for the Dolphins corners.

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RAIDERS (8-7) AT COLTS (9-6) — 1:00pm ET FOX

Favorite: Indianapolis (-7.5) O/U: 45

The Raiders are the very definition of resilient. Despite the obstacles and distractions that have plagued this team since October they somehow find themselves on a two-game win streak and currently sit at 8-7, very much in the AFC playoff hunt. Vegas now faces another team that has overcome adversity: the 9-6 Indianapolis Colts. The Colts, decimated by injuries and COVID issues, won a big one against the Cardinals on Christmas night. They continue to be one of the hottest teams in the NFL after starting the season 1-4. While the Raiders are considered underdogs for this matchup, it might not be that cut and dry. The Colts are down multiple players to COVID, and have given up the third highest yards per carry their last four games.

DFS Player to Watch: Jonathan Taylor | RB | $9,000 DraftKings | $10,000 FanDuel

Jonathan Taylor had an off day with “only” 108 yards and no touchdowns last week. But the Raiders front seven are much less efficient than the Cardinals team he faced last week. Expect Indy to feed the NFL’s RB1 early to set the pace of this game.

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JAGUARS (2-13) AT PATRIOTS (9-6) — 1:00pm ET CBS

Favorite: New England (-15.5) O/U: 41.5

The Pats suffered a tough defeat to the Bills, their second consecutive loss. They now have a much needed “get right” game against the 2-13 Jaguars. The last two games have shown that the Patriots need to play with a lead for their offense to operate as designed. They’re not built to come from behind. Mac Jones’ skill set is simply not at that level yet. Once the Patriots are down a few possessions and abandon the run, Jones struggles mightily to get back in the game. Trevor Lawrence will look to end his TD drought but as long as the Pats’ exceptional secondary dominates the first half as expected, they should be fine.

DFS Player to Watch: Damien Harris | RB | $6,600 DraftKings | $7,400 FanDuel

Damien Harris is PFF’s top-graded RB this year. He had a hell of a game against the Bills with 103 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Pats will again look to establish the run early. Against the Jags leaky run defense, that should lead to plenty of carries for Harris, despite Rhamondre Stevenson’s return.

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BUCCANEERS (11-4) AT JETS (4-11) — 1:00pm ET FOX

Favorite: Tampa Bay (-13) O/U: 45.5

The Bucs got a much needed bounce-back win against the panthers last week. They now get another piece of cake in the Jets. Losing Godwin for the season is a major blow to the Bucs offense but there’s still an embarrassment of riches on this team. In this second to last regular season game, Brady will look to fine tune his passing attack heading into the playoffs. The Jets put together a nice win last week against the Jaguars (the NFL’s lowest scoring team) but they’ll soon discover that the Buccaneers’ offense is polar opposite.

DFS Player to Watch: Antonio Brown | WR | $6,100 DraftKings | $8,500 FanDuel

Antonio Brown was reinstated last week for the Bucs and was their leading receiver with 101 yards. He tweaked his ankle this week but practiced Saturday. With the bevy of injuries to the Bucs’ wideouts, you can expect his numbers to grow against one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses.

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EAGLES (8-7) AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (6-9) — 1:00pm ET FOX

Favorite: Philadelphia (-3.5) O/U: 46

The Eagles are gunning for one of the final two playoff spots in the NFC. A win against a Washington team that was humiliated on national TV by the Cowboys would go a long way to solidifying their playoff chances. The Eagles have played some bottom feeders of late but a win is a win. Washington has overcome adversity this year but their playoff chances have dimmed considerably. WFT has allowed the most passing yards of any team this season. That could give Philly, which scores about 7 PPG more than Washington, a boost in the air.

DFS Player to Watch: Jalen Hurts | QB | $6,600 DraftKings | $7,900 FanDuel

Jalen Hurts had a solid fantasy game against the Giants with 199 yards passing and two touchdowns. That was a huge improvement from his three-interception debacle against the Giants last month. The Eagles’ offense is flying high under Hurts, who is the first player with 3,500+ passing yards and 1,000+ rushing yards in his first 17 career starts. 

RAMS (11-4) AT RAVENS (8-7) — 1:00pm ET FOX

Favorite: Los Angeles (-3.5) O/U: 46.5

The Rams won a big one on a short week despite Matt Stafford having an abysmal showing against the Vikings. The former Detroit Lion threw three interceptions against only one touchdown. Now he faces a Ravens team that is imploding without Lamar under center. The Rams are firmly in the driver’s seat for the NFC West crown and will be playing for not only the division title but a top two playoff seed as well. The Ravens need this win in the worst way. A team that once looked like an AFC powerhouse in October is limping to the finish thanks to injuries and questionable coaching decisions. With Baltimore missing its three top corners and with Jackson on the sidelines, L.A. will be a tough out.

DFS Player to Watch: Cooper Kupp | WR | $9,500 DraftKings | $10,200 FanDuel

Cooper Kupp has been a revelation this year. He now confronts a limping Ravens defense that was lit up like a Christmas tree by Joe Burrow last week. Last week, even with Stafford having a brutal day, Kupp went for 109 yards receiving against a physical Vikings secondary. And lest we forget, the Ravens have allowed the most passing yards (4,433) of any team this season.

Sunday, Jan. 2nd (Afternoon Games)

BRONCOS (7-8) AT CHARGERS (8-7) — 4:05pm ET CBS

Favorite: Los Angeles (-5.5) O/U: 45

The Chargers are in a bit of a crisis at the moment. Two weeks ago they were 8-5 and preparing to battle the Chiefs for the AFC West crown. Now they’re 8-7 after an inexplicable loss to the 4-11 Houston Texans who dropped a forty burger on them. The Broncos gave the Chargers fits last time so this is anything but a gimme for the Bolts. L.A. now finds itself in a loaded AFC wild card race. That’s a problem, given the Chargers have allowed the second most points per game in the NFL this season.

DFS Player to Watch: Courtland Sutton | WR | $4,500 DraftKings | $5,000 FanDuel

Wide receivers Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy are out, and Denver’s running backs are slightly banged up, meaning QB Drew Lock may rely heavily on Sutton. The Chargers have allowed the third most passing yards the last four weeks. Moreover, the weakest link in L.A.’s pass defense is against the WR1 position (Sutton’s position this week).

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TEXANS (4-11) AT 49ERS (8-7) — 4:05pm ET CBS

Favorite: San Francisco (-12.5) O/U: 44

Here we have another potential trap game on the west coast. A loss could prove to be a death blow to the 49ers. Meanwhile, the Texans dismantled the Chargers last week, and that was despite several injuries on an already talent-depleted roster. The Niners dropped a heart breaker to the Titans behind Jimmy Garoppolo’s worst performance of the season. Garoppolo coughed up two key interceptions and if that same Garoppolo shows up this week, the 49ers could be in unexpected trouble against a slowly improving Houston squad.

DFS Player to Watch: Deebo Samuel | WR | $8,700 DraftKings | $9,000 FanDuel

Deebo Samuel is the heart and soul of Shanahan’s offense. When he doesn’t get going, the offense doesn’t get going. Last week he had 159 yards receiving and an additional 32 yards rushing against a tough Titans defense. He should see plenty of action against a Texans defense that PFF grades 4th worst in the NFL.

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CARDINALS (10-5) AT COWBOYS (11-4) — 4:25pm ET FOX

Favorite: Dallas (-5.5) O/U: 51.5

The Cardinals are on a backward slide and that’s nothing new if you’ve watched Kliff Kingsbury’s time in Arizona. The offense looks completely broken and the defense suffers from too much playing time. Now they travel to face a red hot Cowboys team that looks borderline unstoppable offensively. The Cards have their work cut out for them in this game with RB James Conner a gametime decision. They’ll need their defense to regain early season form if they want to slow down Dak and the rest of the Boys.

DFS Player to Watch: Dak Prescott | QB | $6,700 DraftKings | $7,400 FanDuel

Dak Prescott had himself a game last week: 330 passing yards and four touchdowns. We picked him last week and will pick him again against the slumping Cardinals in Dallas.

PANTHERS (5-10) AT SAINTS (7-8) — 4:25pm ET FOX

Favorite: New Orleans (-6.5) O/U: 38

The Saints have a quarterback controversy and not in the Joe Montana/Steve Young sense. The controversy is the Saints simply don’t have a reliable option at the QB position. After missing week 116 due to COVID, Taysom Hill gets the start at QB. The Panthers, despite a talent shortage, do have workable options at QB. If the Saints lose this game and the 49ers and Eagles win, it would likely end their 2021 season. The Saints’ defense is championship caliber. That may just be enough against a Carolina offense graded 2nd worst by PFF.

DFS Player to Watch: Alvin Kamara | RB | $7,900 DraftKings | $9,200 FanDuel

Alvin Kamara only rushed for 52 yards against the Dolphins but that had a lot to do with the Dolphins’ solid run defense and with the Saints falling behind early. Kamara is the only reliable fantasy option for both teams at this point and the Panthers run stoppers, as occassionally good as they are, will have a hard time stuffing him.

LIONS (2-12-1) AT SEAHAWKS (5-10) — 4:25pm ET FOX

Favorite: Seattle (-7) O/U: 42.5

The Seahawks are officially eliminated from the playoffs for only the second time in the Russell Wilson era. It’s the first losing season in his era as well. Last week’s stunning 25-24 loss to the Bears, after they lead by double digits in the fourth quarter, may have been the end of the Wilson/Carroll days. At this point all they have to play for is lowering the positioning of the first round pick they gave away to the Jets last year in the Jamal Adams trade. The Lions kept it close with the Falcons last week and will no doubt fight hard to the end as they always do, but even the Seahawks would be hard pressed to lose at home against the NFL’s worst defense, and sixth worst offense, as graded by PFF.

DFS Player to Watch: Russell Wilson | QB | $6,200 DraftKings | $7,300 FanDuel

Russell Wilson threw for 181 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears. The Lions defense is nowhere near as formidable as the Bears front seven. Detroit’s tackling and coverage are the worst in football. Wilson is playing for his future in Seattle and the NFL, and therefore has big-day potential.

Sunday, Jan. 2nd (Late Game)

VIKINGS (7-8) AT PACKERS (12-3) — 8:20pm ET NBC

Favorite: Green Bay (-6.5) O/U: 47.5

If the Vikings lose this game it could be curtains, not only on their 2021 campaign but also of Mike Zimmer’s tenure in Minnesota. To say that this season has been a whirlwind for the Vikings is an understatement. Winning impressive games here and there, inexplicably throwing games away and rarely losing by more than one possession. The Vikings have been inconsistent but also incredibly entertaining. The last team to beat the Packers was the Vikings but that was in Minnesota — not on the road in hostile Lambeau on national television. The Packers are gunning for the #1 seed and firing on all cylinders right now, despite a close win against the COVID-stricken Browns.

DFS Player to Watch: Davante Adams | WR | $9,300 DraftKings | $9,300 FanDuel

Pounding the Vikings on the ground should create more opportunities for Davante Adams. He continued his excellent season with 114 receiving yards and two additional touchdowns against the Browns. Adams will continue to get plenty of receptions, just as he did the last time these two teams played. That could help him break 100 yards against a team that’s allowed the most FPs to receivers all year.

Monday, Jan. 3rd (MNF)

BROWNS (7-8) AT STEELERS (7-7-1) — 8:15pm ET ESPN

Favorite: Cleveland (-3) O/U: 40.5

The Browns have suffered two heartbreaking losses in a row and are on the outside of the playoff bracket looking in. Fortunately for them, they get a Steelers team that looks like it’s forgotten the meaning of offense. The fact that the Steelers have won any games at all with their stagnant offensive output is almost a miracle. They overly rely on their defense, namely T.J. Watt. Winner of this game gets to keep their hopes of a postseason berth alive for at least one more week. We’ll defer to Vegas linesmakers on this underachiever’s matchup .

DFS Player to Watch: Nick Chubb | RB | $7,800 DraftKings | $8,000 FanDuel

Even though the Browns’ 2021 season has been disappointing, one cog in their offense has been consistently impressive: Nick Chubb. Last week against the Packers he ran for 126 yards and a touchdown. The Steelers have some run stoppers but with fellow RB Kareem Hunt questionable and QB Mayfield averaging just 217 yards a game, Chubb is worth a play.

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About the Author: Steven A. Cravens has been a professional sports better and analyst for over a decade. As a former Fox Sports NFL researcher and data logger, he specialized in player profiling and performance statistics.

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all fantasy stats are based on point per reception (PPR) scoring.