The NFL Week 1 season starts with fireworks as the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills visit the Super Bowl champion L.A. Rams.
To help you spot value this season, DFS Hub’s Steve Cravens will be analyzing one “under the radar” player from each game. The criteria:
- The player must be $6,900 or less on DraftKings
- The player must have the potential and projected opportunities to go 4x NFL DFS value.
In other words, we’re looking for guys with a better than a 50% chance of scoring four times their salary — i.e., a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)]A DFS Hub field that equals a player's salary divided by $1,000. $4.8 [Sal($k)] equals $4,800, for example. It's a short form of salary to make comparing salaries easier. More x 4.
Finding players who go 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s something anyone needs to prioritize if they hope to win tournaments consistently. So without further delay, below is Steve’s first call of the 2022 season. The rest of the week’s selections will post here 3-4 hours after Friday’s injury report.
Time | Teams | Player | Pos | Salary | Justification |
Thu | BUF @ | Gabriel | WR | $5900 | Davis is a low value / high reward play in Week 1. During the 2022 season he was essentially Josh Allen’s fourth option. Now he’s poised to be WR2 given increased usage to end last season, a record playoff performance (201 yards and 4 TDs versus KC) and the fact Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley have both moved on. Despite starting only half his games, Davis has generated 1,149 yards and 13 touchdowns in his first two years. 83% of his catches last year were for a 1st down or TD, highest in the NFL. Look for Davis to pad his numbers against LA's 22nd-ranked secondary, in what might be the week's top shootout. |
Tune in weekly for DFS Hub’s exclusive “Under the Radar” NFL player analysis by veteran NFL analyst, Steven Cravens.
I don’t think I’ll ever spend more than $7000 on a running back again.
Henry – Dud, Ekeler – Dud, Jacobs – Dud
Carr is a lock for 17-20+ points but Winston is a bit cheaper and could put the smackdown on Atlanta.
Liking the stack with Kamara who had 146 yards against Atlanta in his last game!
Post-game wrap-up: Davis ended up going 3.2x value in his breakout performance this week, but he was nonetheless the best value under $7,000: https://share.cleanshot.com/rpjrtq
So far so good on Davis. I had him down for two trips to the house. His MVP ownership was only 3%.
NFL is back!! Yeeeessss!!! Let’s gooooooooo!!!!