Posted on by Steve Cravens

NFL Week 17 Predictions | 2021

NFL DFS predictions post here every week, including projected outcomes and players to watch for every matchup. For more player selections, check out our free NFL Lineup Builder (now in beta).

Sunday, Jan. 2nd (Early Games)

FALCONS (7-8) AT BILLS (9-6) — 1:00pm ET FOX

Favorite: Buffalo (-14.5) O/U: 44

Both teams got big wins last week. The Falcons pulled one off against the Lions to mathematically keep their playoff hopes alive. The Bills got a massive road win against the Patriots and at least temporarily lay claim to the AFC East crown. The Bills cannot look past any opponent given how tight the AFC/AFC East race is. In order for the Falcons to pull off the wild road upset they need, their 21st-ranked offense (in the last 4 games) will somehow need to exhaust Buffalo’s defense, ranked 13th in the last four games. That’s highly unlikely of course. Then again, ask the Chargers how their matchup with the Texans went last week.

DFS Player to Watch: Josh Allen | QB | $8,000 DraftKings | $8,800 FanDuel

Josh Allen threw for 314 yards, 3 touchdowns and no picks against the vaunted Patriots defense. He added another 64 yards rushing. He should slice and dice a floundering Falcons defense that’s allowed the 7th most passing yards in their last four games. Atlanta is also down two starters in its secondary.

GIANTS (4-11) AT BEARS (5-10) — 1:00pm ET CBS

Favorite: Chicago (-6) O/U: 37.5

The Giants suffered one of week 16’s more lopsided defeats, getting crushed by the Eagles 10-34. On the other hand, the Bears pulled off a stunning upset of the Seahawks on the road, despite a two score deficit in the fourth quarter. Chicago’s revolving QB door will probably feature Andy Dalton as a starter this week with Fields limited in practice. He’d face off against a potential Mike Glennon / Jake Fromm platoon at QB. Ironically, the Bears infamously signed Glennon to a massive contract the same year they drafted Mitch Trubisky second overall in 2017. While both teams are eliminated from the playoffs the Bears have added motivation as they don’t have a first round pick this year thanks to the Justin Fields draft trade last April. That pick belongs to, wait for it, the Giants. The Bears would like to make that pick go further down the draft board so expect Chicago to once again go all out in what could be Matt Nagy’s penultimate game as coach.

DFS Player to Watch: Cole Kmet | TE | $3,400 DraftKings | $5,000 FanDuel

Kmet has averaged 6.5 targets snd 45 yards/game in his last four appearances and Dalton may have to lean on him in his first game back at QB. Moreover, the blue men are just average in defending against tight ends. Kmet is certainly not the best DFS tight end on the slate but at $3,400, he could hit 3x value, particularly if he ends his end zone drought.

CHIEFS (11-4) AT BENGALS (9-6) — 1:00pm ET CBS

Favorite: Kansas City (-5) O/U: 49.5

The Chiefs have been unstoppable for nearly eight weeks. In the last four games they’ve scored more than anyone. K.C. now meets the Bengals who are coming off a massive win against the Ravens. Joe Burrow made Bengals history in that one, throwing for a record 525 yards, 4 touchdowns and zero picks with a rating of 143.2. An otherworldly performance. Burrow will have his hands full dealing with the Chiefs’ formidable secondary (graded 4th best by PFF). The Chiefs will also have to be on their toes offensively as the Bengals defense is no pushover at home. This may just be a playoff preview between the two AFC hopefuls.

DFS Player to Watch: Joe Burrow | QB | $6,900 DraftKings | $7,700 FanDuel

With a stat line of 525 yards and 4 touchdowns, it’s hard to choose anyone but Burrow at home, despite the bevy of offensive talent on both teams. He’s the most accurate QB in the NFL on long throws. And he’ll likely have to stick to the air to keep pace with Mahomes.

DOLPHINS (8-7) AT TITANS (10-5) — 1:00pm ET CBS

Favorite: Tennessee (-3.5) O/U: 41

The 2021 Miami Dolphins have officially made history: they are the first team to ever go on a seven-game losing streak and then turn around and go on a seven-game winning streak. That’s mind-boggling when you stop and think about it. To make the postseason they have to win out and it starts with a visit to the 10-5 Titans — who are still without Derrick Henry. Ryan Tannehill would no doubt love to eliminate his former team from the playoffs and get the first seed in the AFC. Despite his motivation, it won’t be easy. The Dolphins defense has been nothing short of suffocating during their win streak. And the Titans run-heavy offense is still without its heart and soul, Derrick Henry.

DFS Player to Watch: A.J. Brown | WR | $7,200 DraftKings | $7,500 FanDuel

A.J. Brown was a menace against the 49ers secondary last week, amassing 145 yards receiving and a touchdown. He leads the Titans with 27% target share and will benefit from Julio Jones being out this week. The Dolphins pass rush and coverage are top-10 but if Tannehill can get the ball out fast, it could be a long day for the Dolphins corners.

RAIDERS (8-7) AT COLTS (9-6) — 1:00pm ET FOX

Favorite: Indianapolis (-7.5) O/U: 45

The Raiders are the very definition of resilient. Despite the obstacles and distractions that have plagued this team since October they somehow find themselves on a two-game win streak and currently sit at 8-7, very much in the AFC playoff hunt. Vegas now faces another team that has overcome adversity: the 9-6 Indianapolis Colts. The Colts, decimated by injuries and COVID issues, won a big one against the Cardinals on Christmas night. They continue to be one of the hottest teams in the NFL after starting the season 1-4. While the Raiders are considered underdogs for this matchup, it might not be that cut and dry. The Colts are down multiple players to COVID, and have given up the third highest yards per carry their last four games.

DFS Player to Watch: Jonathan Taylor | RB | $9,000 DraftKings | $10,000 FanDuel

Jonathan Taylor had an off day with “only” 108 yards and no touchdowns last week. But the Raiders front seven are much less efficient than the Cardinals team he faced last week. Expect Indy to feed the NFL’s RB1 early to set the pace of this game.

JAGUARS (2-13) AT PATRIOTS (9-6) — 1:00pm ET CBS

Favorite: New England (-15.5) O/U: 41.5

The Pats suffered a tough defeat to the Bills, their second consecutive loss. They now have a much needed “get right” game against the 2-13 Jaguars. The last two games have shown that the Patriots need to play with a lead for their offense to operate as designed. They’re not built to come from behind. Mac Jones’ skill set is simply not at that level yet. Once the Patriots are down a few possessions and abandon the run, Jones struggles mightily to get back in the game. Trevor Lawrence will look to end his TD drought but as long as the Pats’ exceptional secondary dominates the first half as expected, they should be fine.

DFS Player to Watch: Damien Harris | RB | $6,600 DraftKings | $7,400 FanDuel

Damien Harris is PFF’s top-graded RB this year. He had a hell of a game against the Bills with 103 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Pats will again look to establish the run early. Against the Jags leaky run defense, that should lead to plenty of carries for Harris, despite Rhamondre Stevenson’s return.

BUCCANEERS (11-4) AT JETS (4-11) — 1:00pm ET FOX

Favorite: Tampa Bay (-13) O/U: 45.5

The Bucs got a much needed bounce-back win against the panthers last week. They now get another piece of cake in the Jets. Losing Godwin for the season is a major blow to the Bucs offense but there’s still an embarrassment of riches on this team. In this second to last regular season game, Brady will look to fine tune his passing attack heading into the playoffs. The Jets put together a nice win last week against the Jaguars (the NFL’s lowest scoring team) but they’ll soon discover that the Buccaneers’ offense is polar opposite.

DFS Player to Watch: Antonio Brown | WR | $6,100 DraftKings | $8,500 FanDuel

Antonio Brown was reinstated last week for the Bucs and was their leading receiver with 101 yards. He tweaked his ankle this week but practiced Saturday. With the bevy of injuries to the Bucs’ wideouts, you can expect his numbers to grow against one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses.

EAGLES (8-7) AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (6-9) — 1:00pm ET FOX

Favorite: Philadelphia (-3.5) O/U: 46

The Eagles are gunning for one of the final two playoff spots in the NFC. A win against a Washington team that was humiliated on national TV by the Cowboys would go a long way to solidifying their playoff chances. The Eagles have played some bottom feeders of late but a win is a win. Washington has overcome adversity this year but their playoff chances have dimmed considerably. WFT has allowed the most passing yards of any team this season. That could give Philly, which scores about 7 PPG more than Washington, a boost in the air.

DFS Player to Watch: Jalen Hurts | QB | $6,600 DraftKings | $7,900 FanDuel

Jalen Hurts had a solid fantasy game against the Giants with 199 yards passing and two touchdowns. That was a huge improvement from his three-interception debacle against the Giants last month. The Eagles’ offense is flying high under Hurts, who is the first player with 3,500+ passing yards and 1,000+ rushing yards in his first 17 career starts. 

RAMS (11-4) AT RAVENS (8-7) — 1:00pm ET FOX

Favorite: Los Angeles (-3.5) O/U: 46.5

The Rams won a big one on a short week despite Matt Stafford having an abysmal showing against the Vikings. The former Detroit Lion threw three interceptions against only one touchdown. Now he faces a Ravens team that is imploding without Lamar under center. The Rams are firmly in the driver’s seat for the NFC West crown and will be playing for not only the division title but a top two playoff seed as well. The Ravens need this win in the worst way. A team that once looked like an AFC powerhouse in October is limping to the finish thanks to injuries and questionable coaching decisions. With Baltimore missing its three top corners and with Jackson on the sidelines, L.A. will be a tough out.

DFS Player to Watch: Cooper Kupp | WR | $9,500 DraftKings | $10,200 FanDuel

Cooper Kupp has been a revelation this year. He now confronts a limping Ravens defense that was lit up like a Christmas tree by Joe Burrow last week. Last week, even with Stafford having a brutal day, Kupp went for 109 yards receiving against a physical Vikings secondary. And lest we forget, the Ravens have allowed the most passing yards (4,433) of any team this season.

Sunday, Jan. 2nd (Afternoon Games)

BRONCOS (7-8) AT CHARGERS (8-7) — 4:05pm ET CBS

Favorite: Los Angeles (-5.5) O/U: 45

The Chargers are in a bit of a crisis at the moment. Two weeks ago they were 8-5 and preparing to battle the Chiefs for the AFC West crown. Now they’re 8-7 after an inexplicable loss to the 4-11 Houston Texans who dropped a forty burger on them. The Broncos gave the Chargers fits last time so this is anything but a gimme for the Bolts. L.A. now finds itself in a loaded AFC wild card race. That’s a problem, given the Chargers have allowed the second most points per game in the NFL this season.

DFS Player to Watch: Courtland Sutton | WR | $4,500 DraftKings | $5,000 FanDuel

Wide receivers Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy are out, and Denver’s running backs are slightly banged up, meaning QB Drew Lock may rely heavily on Sutton. The Chargers have allowed the third most passing yards the last four weeks. Moreover, the weakest link in L.A.’s pass defense is against the WR1 position (Sutton’s position this week).

TEXANS (4-11) AT 49ERS (8-7) — 4:05pm ET CBS

Favorite: San Francisco (-12.5) O/U: 44

Here we have another potential trap game on the west coast. A loss could prove to be a death blow to the 49ers. Meanwhile, the Texans dismantled the Chargers last week, and that was despite several injuries on an already talent-depleted roster. The Niners dropped a heart breaker to the Titans behind Jimmy Garoppolo’s worst performance of the season. Garoppolo coughed up two key interceptions and if that same Garoppolo shows up this week, the 49ers could be in unexpected trouble against a slowly improving Houston squad.

DFS Player to Watch: Deebo Samuel | WR | $8,700 DraftKings | $9,000 FanDuel

Deebo Samuel is the heart and soul of Shanahan’s offense. When he doesn’t get going, the offense doesn’t get going. Last week he had 159 yards receiving and an additional 32 yards rushing against a tough Titans defense. He should see plenty of action against a Texans defense that PFF grades 4th worst in the NFL.

CARDINALS (10-5) AT COWBOYS (11-4) — 4:25pm ET FOX

Favorite: Dallas (-5.5) O/U: 51.5

The Cardinals are on a backward slide and that’s nothing new if you’ve watched Kliff Kingsbury’s time in Arizona. The offense looks completely broken and the defense suffers from too much playing time. Now they travel to face a red hot Cowboys team that looks borderline unstoppable offensively. The Cards have their work cut out for them in this game with RB James Conner a gametime decision. They’ll need their defense to regain early season form if they want to slow down Dak and the rest of the Boys.

DFS Player to Watch: Dak Prescott | QB | $6,700 DraftKings | $7,400 FanDuel

Dak Prescott had himself a game last week: 330 passing yards and four touchdowns. We picked him last week and will pick him again against the slumping Cardinals in Dallas.

PANTHERS (5-10) AT SAINTS (7-8) — 4:25pm ET FOX

Favorite: New Orleans (-6.5) O/U: 38

The Saints have a quarterback controversy and not in the Joe Montana/Steve Young sense. The controversy is the Saints simply don’t have a reliable option at the QB position. After missing week 116 due to COVID, Taysom Hill gets the start at QB. The Panthers, despite a talent shortage, do have workable options at QB. If the Saints lose this game and the 49ers and Eagles win, it would likely end their 2021 season. The Saints’ defense is championship caliber. That may just be enough against a Carolina offense graded 2nd worst by PFF.

DFS Player to Watch: Alvin Kamara | RB | $7,900 DraftKings | $9,200 FanDuel

Alvin Kamara only rushed for 52 yards against the Dolphins but that had a lot to do with the Dolphins’ solid run defense and with the Saints falling behind early. Kamara is the only reliable fantasy option for both teams at this point and the Panthers run stoppers, as occassionally good as they are, will have a hard time stuffing him.

LIONS (2-12-1) AT SEAHAWKS (5-10) — 4:25pm ET FOX

Favorite: Seattle (-7) O/U: 42.5

The Seahawks are officially eliminated from the playoffs for only the second time in the Russell Wilson era. It’s the first losing season in his era as well. Last week’s stunning 25-24 loss to the Bears, after they lead by double digits in the fourth quarter, may have been the end of the Wilson/Carroll days. At this point all they have to play for is lowering the positioning of the first round pick they gave away to the Jets last year in the Jamal Adams trade. The Lions kept it close with the Falcons last week and will no doubt fight hard to the end as they always do, but even the Seahawks would be hard pressed to lose at home against the NFL’s worst defense, and sixth worst offense, as graded by PFF.

DFS Player to Watch: Russell Wilson | QB | $6,200 DraftKings | $7,300 FanDuel

Russell Wilson threw for 181 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears. The Lions defense is nowhere near as formidable as the Bears front seven. Detroit’s tackling and coverage are the worst in football. Wilson is playing for his future in Seattle and the NFL, and therefore has big-day potential.

Sunday, Jan. 2nd (Late Game)

VIKINGS (7-8) AT PACKERS (12-3) — 8:20pm ET NBC

Favorite: Green Bay (-6.5) O/U: 47.5

If the Vikings lose this game it could be curtains, not only on their 2021 campaign but also of Mike Zimmer’s tenure in Minnesota. To say that this season has been a whirlwind for the Vikings is an understatement. Winning impressive games here and there, inexplicably throwing games away and rarely losing by more than one possession. The Vikings have been inconsistent but also incredibly entertaining. The last team to beat the Packers was the Vikings but that was in Minnesota — not on the road in hostile Lambeau on national television. The Packers are gunning for the #1 seed and firing on all cylinders right now, despite a close win against the COVID-stricken Browns.

DFS Player to Watch: Davante Adams | WR | $9,300 DraftKings | $9,300 FanDuel

Pounding the Vikings on the ground should create more opportunities for Davante Adams. He continued his excellent season with 114 receiving yards and two additional touchdowns against the Browns. Adams will continue to get plenty of receptions, just as he did the last time these two teams played. That could help him break 100 yards against a team that’s allowed the most FPs to receivers all year.

Monday, Jan. 3rd (MNF)

BROWNS (7-8) AT STEELERS (7-7-1) — 8:15pm ET ESPN

Favorite: Cleveland (-3) O/U: 40.5

The Browns have suffered two heartbreaking losses in a row and are on the outside of the playoff bracket looking in. Fortunately for them, they get a Steelers team that looks like it’s forgotten the meaning of offense. The fact that the Steelers have won any games at all with their stagnant offensive output is almost a miracle. They overly rely on their defense, namely T.J. Watt. Winner of this game gets to keep their hopes of a postseason berth alive for at least one more week. We’ll defer to Vegas linesmakers on this underachiever’s matchup .

DFS Player to Watch: Nick Chubb | RB | $7,800 DraftKings | $8,000 FanDuel

Even though the Browns’ 2021 season has been disappointing, one cog in their offense has been consistently impressive: Nick Chubb. Last week against the Packers he ran for 126 yards and a touchdown. The Steelers have some run stoppers but with fellow RB Kareem Hunt questionable and QB Mayfield averaging just 217 yards a game, Chubb is worth a play.

About the Author: Steven A. Cravens has been a professional sports better and analyst for over a decade. As a former Fox Sports NFL researcher and data logger, he specialized in player profiling and performance statistics.

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all fantasy stats are based on point per reception (PPR) scoring.

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