NFL DFS predictions post here every week, including projected outcomes and players to watch for every matchup. (We respond to all reader comments so please jot them below.)
Thursday, Nov. 4th (TNF)
JETS (2-5) AT COLTS (3-5) — 8:20pm ET FOX
Favorite: Indianapolis (-10.5) O/U: 46.5
It’s reasonable to assume that most had never heard of Jets backup QB Mike White before last Sunday. He’s officially not an unknown anymore. White threw for 405 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Jets to a stunning upset of Joe Burrow’s Bengals. Final score: 34-31. The Colts meanwhile suffered a brutal OT loss thanks largely to an unfortunate Carson Wentz pick. The Jets have no illusions of a playoff spot this season. Their mission was getting Zach Wilson NFL reps and building towards the future. The Colts are in a different boat. They need this win in the worst way for a shot at a wild card ticket come January. If Vegas is right, and it’s right over 70% of the time on 10+ point spreads, Mike White and the Jets will not play spoiler to the Colts on national TV.
DFS Player to Watch: Carson Wentz | QB | $5,900 DraftKings | $7,500 FanDuel
Carson Wentz, despite the backbreaking interception in OT last week, put up solid numbers: 231 passing yards with three touchdowns. The Jets defense, despite defensive mastermind Robert Saleh as head coach, is still a work in progress (we’re being polite). In the last four weeks they’ve coughed up the most points in fantasy football. Expect healthy numbers from Wentz.
Sunday, Nov. 7th (Early Slate)
BROWNS (4-4) AT BENGALS (5-3) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: Cincinnati (-3) O/U: 47
It’s the battle of Ohio and both of these AFC North hopefuls suffered devastating losses last week. The Browns caved to the Steelers 15-10 at home and the Bengals were stunned by the Jets 34-31. When it comes to division games, specifically the AFC North, “unpredictable” is a fitting descriptor. The outcome of this game hinges disproportionately on the QBs and Joe Burrow has the edge. Baker is still dealing with lingering injuries, particularly to his shoulder, and Cleveland’s passing attack is bottom 6 in the league. Adding to that, Cleveland’s defense is second to worst in fantasy points allowed to QBs over the past four weeks.
DFS Player to Watch: Joe Mixon | RB | $7,100 DraftKings | $7,400 FanDuel
Joe Mixon has rushed for 572 yards and five touchdowns on the season, averaging 4.2 yards a carry (average among the top 50 backs is 4.33). While he only rushed for 33 yards last week, he was still able to sneak a touchdown onto the stat sheet. Mixon should be a core part of the Bengals’ game plan with the Browns’ defense ranking a subpar 21st in RB points allowed over the last 4 weeks.
BRONCOS (4-4) AT COWBOYS (6-1) — 1:00pm ET FOX
Favorite: Dallas (-10) O/U: 49.5
The Broncos wrestled a much needed win from the Washington Football Team, ending Denver’s four-game losing streak. They now face the vaunted Cowboys on the road and Dak is back from his calf injury. Dak Prescott has generated the 8th most FPsFantasy points of any QB this season. As solid as the Broncos defense has played all year (now without Von Miller, who was traded to the Rams) they’ve yet to confront an offense as dangerous as the Cowboys.
DFS Player to Watch: CeeDee Lamb | WR | $7,200 DraftKings | $7,500 FanDuel
Lamb has been more like a Lion, averaging almost 20 fantasy points per game in his last four. He could excel Sunday against a Broncos defense that is now without the services of Von Miller. In the last two games against the Patriots and Vikings, both solid pass defenses, Lamb accumulated 100+ yards receiving. With Dak under center this week, there’s little reason his yardage production should drop significantly against a reeling Broncos team that just lost the soul of its defense.
TEXANS (1-7) AT DOLPHINS (1-7) — 1:00pm ET FOX
Favorite: Miami (-6.5) O/U: 46
It’s the battle of 1-and-7s. The Texans travel to Miami to take on the woeful Miami Dolphins in the 2021 tank bowl. The Dolphins have been one of the biggest disappointments of the year. Their 10-6 campaign last year looked to be a promising indicator of things to come. Instead they’ve regressed to one of the worst records in the league with new issues being exposed every week. Tua is only 25th in FP per game but that could be enough against Houston’s coverage, graded 2nd worst in the NFL by PFF. The Texans do get QB Tyrod Taylor back, however, and he looked solid before going down in week 2. Taylor’s spark could make this game closer than the line implies.
DFS Player to Watch: Jaylen Waddle | WR | $5,600 DraftKings | $6,100 FanDuel
Jaylen Waddle’s numbers since his explosive game against the Jags have been less than impressive. But this week is a prime chance to have a bounce-back performance for three reasons: (1) The Texans’ defense is one of the worst in the league, (2) Tyrod Taylor’s return as QB could force Tua to throw more, and (3) with WR DaVante Parker sidelined, Miami has no other marquee receivers to target.
FALCONS (3-4) AT SAINTS (5-2) — 1:00pm ET FOX
Favorite: New Orleans (-6) O/U: 42.5
The Falcons suffered a disappointing loss at home to the rival Panthers, further reinforcing Atlanta’s reputation as one of the NFL’s most inconsistent teams. The Saints, on the other hand, pulled off one of the bigger upsets, taking down Brady’s Bucs behind brilliant play calling from head coach Sean Payton. Jameis Winston suffered a season-ending ACL injury, but if anyone is capable of maximizing backup QB talent, it’s Payton. Consider that in 2019 he coached Teddy Bridgewater to a 5-0 record in Drew Brees’ absence. In 2020 he coached Winston and Taysom Hill to a 4-1 record without Brees. The Falcons are sitting at 3-4 on the season and need this win badly for any realistic chance at that third and final NFL wildcard slot.
DFS Player to Watch: Matt Ryan | QB | $5,600 DraftKings | $6,700 FanDuel
Matt Ryan’s numbers through week 8 are respectable: 1814 passing yards, 13 TDs and 6.7 yards per attempt. The Saints coverage is tough, but its run defense is tougher, which is why Ryan may have to pass more than average. He should have time to throw as the Saint’s pass rush is 3rd worst according to PFF grading. Ryan’s cheap salary should result in at least 3x value, even with WR Calvin Ridley taking time off from the game.
RAIDERS (5-2) AT GIANTS (2-6) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: Las Vegas (-3) O/U: 47
The Giants suffered a heartbreaker to the Chiefs last Monday. It’s probably got team owners John Mara and Steve Tisch wondering whether to fire GM Dave Gettleman and head coach Joe Judge and move on from Daniel Jones. The Raiders will likely expose the Giants’ deficiencies even more. Vegas is playing at a higher level than when Jon Gruden was at the helm and they also have the benefit of coming off of a bye week. They are a true playoff contender with leading pass rush and coverage units. With the Giant’s laundry list of injuries and incompetence at the helm, it may be a long afternoon for fans in East Rutherford, NJ.
DFS Player to Watch: Derek Carr | QB | $5,900 DraftKings | $7,500 FanDuel
Derek Carr has been reliable for fantasy owners this year, completing nearly 68% of his passes and scoring almost 19 FP a game. He’s thrown for over 300 yards in five out of his seven games and has thrown for two touchdowns in six of the seven games he’s played. The Giants defense, which gives up the 6th more FPs to receivers, will have to work overtime if they want to slow this man down.
PATRIOTS (4-4) AT PANTHERS (4-4) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: New England (-4) O/U: 41
The Pats put together one of their more impressive games of the year against the Chargers on the road last week. The story wasn’t Mac Jones’ play, although he was efficient, it was the Pats’ defense, which limited QB Justin Herbert to just 222 yards. As for the Panthers, they put together a solid if uninspiring win against the Falcons. Their offense ranks 2nd last in effectiveness, however, according to PFF. They’ll need a lot more from Sam Darnold and the offense this week against a Patriots team that’s coming into its own.
DFS Player to Watch: Mac Jones | QB | $5,300 DraftKings | $6,500 FanDuel
At $5,300, Mac Jones is safe despite the matchup—especially given he’ll want to bounce back from last week’s uninspired showing. Josh McDaniels doesn’t ask Jones to take risks offensively, yet he’s passed for touchdowns in all but two games this year, throwing for under 200 yards only once. He’s been consistent and rarely turns the ball over, if ever. While we wouldn’t bank on 20+ points, Jones should be good for over 3x value.
BILLS (5-2) AT JAGUARS (1-6) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: Buffalo (-14.5) O/U: 48.5
The Bills recovered from their last-minute loss to the Titans by coming out of their bye week and beating the Dolphins 26-11 at home. Meanwhile, the Jaguars flew cross-country to get destroyed by Geno Smith and the Seahawks—final score: 31-7. The Jags now face a juggernaut in the Bills, with a defense graded #1 by PFF. As we saw last week with the Bengals and the Jets, anything can happen, but this game (the week’s biggest mismatch) is almost as close to a lock as one can get in the NFL.
DFS Player to Watch: Devin Singletary | RB | $4,500 DraftKings | $5,300 FanDuel
Devin Singletary has had an underwhelming 2021 campaign (339 yards rushing and only one touchdown) but he’s averaging 5.1 yards a rush. He’s also been a steady presence in the backfield when Sean McDermott runs the ball. The Jags have an average rushing defense on a good day and if the Bills rack up points early, as expected, it could pave the way for Singletary to see more run action as the game wears down. (Note that 97% of total bets are on the over, according to Vegas Insider.) If you need a contrarian play this week, he could be your man.
VIKINGS (3-4) AT RAVENS (5-2) — 1:00pm ET FOX
Favorite: Baltimore (-5.5) O/U: 49.5
The Vikings continue to be one of the most puzzling teams in the league. One week they look like a legit playoff contender and the next week they look like they’re bound for a high draft pick. Question is, which team will show up to take on Lamar Jackson. The rested Ravens are coming off a bad loss to the Bengals two weeks prior while the Vikings have risen to the challenge against elite teams (like the Cardinals in week 2). Minny’s defense (graded #5 by PFF) can take care of itself but John Harbaugh is 80-40 after bye weeks. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens #3 offense will be red hot for this game.
DFS Player to Watch: Dalvin Cook | RB | $7,700 DraftKings | $8,800 FanDuel
If there are two areas where the Raves are vulnerable it’s their run defense and tackling. Dalvin Cook looks to get above-average numbers on Sunday as Mike Zimmer will want to get him involved in both the passing and running game. Even if Cook doesn’t get many targets, he’s still one of the best power running backs in the league. And he’s extra motivated after scoring less than 8 FPs last week.
Sunday, Nov. 7th (Afternoon SlateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam...)
CHARGERS (4-3) AT EAGLES (3-5) — 4:05pm ET CBS
Favorite: Los Angeles (-1.5) O/U: 50
The Eagles beat down the lowly Lions on Sunday but face a much stiffer challenge in the Los Angeles Chargers. L.A. is coming off of a two-game losing streak after starting off 4-1. The question here is whether Justin Herbert will return to his early season form? The Ravens and the Patriots took him out of his comfort zone, forcing him to make uncharacteristic throws by blitzing and disguising their coverage. The Eagles are another up and down team that can catch opponents off guard. This one, being in Philly, is too close to call.
DFS Player to Watch: Austin Ekeler | RB | $7,900 DraftKings | $9,000 FanDuel
Ekeler just put up 24.4 FPs against New England and consistently gets ample opportunities weekly. He squares off against an Eagles team that gives up the 5th most FPs to running backs. If Herbert gets back on track, Ekeler should have an above-average day.
PACKERS (7-1) AT CHIEFS (4-4) — 4:25pm ET FOX
Favorite: Green Bay (PK) O/U: 55.5
The Chiefs were able to fend off the lowly the Giants on Monday Night Football, but only barely. Their offense looks disjointed and out of sync and they rack up penalties that bite them when the game’s on the line. K.C. has won games in spite of their lack of discipline and chemistry. Their run defense is graded 2nd worst in the NFL by PFF. The Packers, on the other hand, find themselves at 7-1 behind reliable play from Aaron Rodgers. They’re coming off a massive Thursday Night win on the road against the Cardinals. A loss for the Packers could potentially take them out of the first seed in the NFC. A loss for the Chiefs would move them further out of the AFC wild card picture.
DFS Player to Watch: Mecole Hardman | WR | $3,900 DraftKings | $5,400 FanDuel
Mecole Hardman has averaged 10 yards a catch this season but has only managed one touchdown. That’s surprising considering how often the Chiefs use him. The Chiefs may feed him as the Pack focus their linebackers and secondary on neutralizing Kelce and Hill. He’s due for a touchdown and is low risk DFS Flex play at $3,900.
CARDINALS (7-1) AT 49ERS (3-4) — 4:25pm ET FOX
Favorite: Arizona (-2.5) O/U: 46.5
The X-factor for this NFC West showdown is whether or not Kyler Murray will be available to play. He’s a gametime decision with a gimpy ankle. The Cardinals’ offense relies on Kyler’s ability to take off and run if passing lanes close. The last time these two teams played, the Niners still held the Cardinals to a season-low 17 points (with Trey Lance at QB and TE Kittle missing). This time, the Cards could be missing WR Hopkins (hamstring) and A.J. Green (Covid list). By contrast, the Niners look to be back in solid form after a brilliant 322-yard Garoppolo performance against the Bears. If Murray can’t go and Colt McCoy starts, the Niners could foreseeably get back to .500.
DFS Player to Watch: Brandon Aiyuk | WR | $4,100 DraftKings | $5,500 FanDuel
Brandon Aiyuk has been in Shanahan’s dog house all season — up until last week’s game against the Bears. He’s steadily depreciated over the last four weeks due to the reemergence of Deebo Samuel. Aiyuk’s 45 yards last week may not be impressive but if he’s gained Shanahan’s trust back, he may see a season-high in targets as Samuel draws coverage and Elijah Mitchell (rib) doesn’t play.
Sunday, Nov. 7th (Late Slate)
TITANS (6-2) AT RAMS (7-1) — 8:20pm ET NBC
Favorite: Los Angeles (-7.5) O/U: 53.5
Some players are simply irreplaceable. Derrick Henry is one of them. Henry suffered a foot injury during the Titans’ OT win vs the Colts and the team has brought in Adrian Petersen to fill in. On the other side of the field, the Rams just acquired Pro-Bowl pass rusher Von Miller from the Broncos. A scary Rams defense just got scarier and the Titans couldn’t have lost their superstar running back at a worse time. With a reinforced defense and 30.6 points of offense per game, the Rams might just be the team to beat in the NFC.
DFS Player to Watch: Julio Jones | WR | $5,100 DraftKings | $7,500 FanDuel
This is not a textbook matchup given the Rams defense being elite, and given that star corner Jalen Ramsey may be on Jones. But star players rise to the occasion and one thing is clear. With King Henry out, Ryan Tannehill will have to rely on his arm more than ever. A.J. Brown (knee) may not play after suddenly missing practice on Friday. At just $5,100, that all augurs well for a (hopefully) healthy Julio.
Monday, Nov. 8th
BEARS (3-5) AT STEELERS (4-3) — 8:15pm ET ESPN
Favorite: Pittsburgh (-6.5) O/U: 40
The Bears are coming off a hard loss to the 49ers in which rookie Justin Fields actually played surprisingly well against a top defense in the NFC. His rushing touchdown from the Niners 20 yard line on 4th and 1 will no doubt make a highlight reel for top plays of the year. Unfortunately for him and the rest of the Bears offense, their defense was bullied by the Niners offense in the second half. As for the Steelers, they logged a ‘W’ after a slugfest against the Browns. Pittsburg nonetheless looks stagnant behind Big Ben and if Khalil Mack returns for the Bears, it’ll be tougher sledding. The Steelers top-10 defense will need to be the difference maker in this toss-up.
DFS Player to Watch: Najee Harris | RB | $7,800 DraftKings | $8,700 FanDuel
Najee Harris hasn’t put up Derrick Henry numbers but he’s become a foundation of this offense with an exceptionally consistent floor (18.1 FP minimum the last 4 weeks). He’s also seen the most opportunities per game ([OpsL4]) than any non-QB over the last four weeks. Harris should outperform against a bears defense that was completely gashed by Elijah Mitchell last week.
About the Author: Steven A. Cravens has been a professional sports better and analyst for over a decade. As a former Fox Sports NFL researcher and data logger, he specialized in player profiling and performance statistics.
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all fantasy stats are based on point per reception (PPRPoint per reception This is a DFS scoring system that awards offensive players (e.g., WR, RB and TE) one point for each reception. This is the standard scoring method of DraftKings.) scoring.
