NFL DFS predictions post here every week, including projected outcomes and players to watch for every matchup. (We respond to all reader comments so please jot them below.)
Thursday, Oct. 28th
PACKERS (6-1) AT CARDINALS (7-0) — 8:20pm ET FOX
Favorite: Arizona (-6) O/U: 51
This matchup has major playoff implications written all over it, namely for home field advantage in the NFC. The Packers have won six straight games after their embarrassing week one loss to the Saints — and the Cardinals have improved to 7-0 after their week 7 beat down of the Texans. Both offenses are flying high and their defenses are doing their part as well. Question #1 is whether Aaron Rodgers (RB9) will be able to outscore the Kyler Murray (RB3). The Cards’ defense is allowing the third fewest fantasy points in the NFL. Green Bay: the seventh fewest. But Arizona is outscoring Green Bay by 6.1 points per game.
DFS Player to Watch: Kyler Murray | QB | $8,300 DraftKings | $8,500 FanDuel
His price is sometimes hard to take but Kyler Murray has made a legitimate case through seven games to be the league’s MVP. Through the air he’s connected for 2002 yards, 17 TDs and only 5 INTs. He’s rushed for an additional 126 yards and 3 TDs. The Packers 12th-ranked defense is sturdy but it’s struggled against the deep pass, and against the run. Kyler brings both to the table.
Sunday, Oct. 31st (Early SlateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... More)
PANTHERS (3-4) AT FALCONS (3-3) — 1:00pm ET FOX
Favorite: Atlanta (-2.5) O/U: 46
The Panthers are going through a rough patch with four straight losses after starting 3-0. Meanwhile, their NFC South rival Falcons find themselves at 3-3 after two straight wins, albeit against the Jets and Dolphins. The narrative here is one team stumbling badly due to injury adversity (RB Christian McCaffrey remains out until at least November 7) and the other fighting their way through adversity after a brutal start. Arthur Smith’s offense finally looks to be coming together for the Falcons. They’ll look to make it three straight with a division win against a slipping defense.
DFS Player to Watch: Kyle Pitts | TE | $6,300 DraftKings | $6,800 FanDuel
It’s ride the wave with Kyle Pitts. He’s made incredible strides for the Falcons in recent weeks and his receptions and receiving yards continue to grow as Matt Ryan solidifies rapport with his rookie tight end. Consider this, back in week 3 against the Giants, Pitts had two receptions for 35 yards. The next week he had 4 receptions for 50 yards and then 9 receptions for 119 yards and a touchdown and, most recently, 7 receptions for 163 yards last week against the Dolphins. Pitts is a star on the rise and a solid option against a middle-of-the-pack team versus tight ends.
DOLPHINS (1-6) AT BILLS (4-2) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: Buffalo (-13.5) O/U: 49.5
The Dolphins are lucky to be 1-6 and not 0-7. Their coaching staff seems truly lost. The Bills are coming off a bye and a tough loss to the Titans. They should have no problem getting back in the win column against the beached Dolphins. When the Bills came to Miami back in week two they harpooned the Dolphins by a margin of 35-0. The Fins should avoid a shutout this time with Tua under center but their 4th-worst defense (in FPsFantasy points More allowed) has too many holes.
DFS Player to Watch: Emmanuel Sanders | WR | $5,400 DraftKings | $6,700 FanDuel
Emmanuel Sanders continues to be one of the most reliable receivers, with a median 3.2x value in the last 4 games. His production should continue at home this week against a Dolphins team that’s allowing the most points to WRs in the last 4 weeks.
49ERS (2-4) AT BEARS (3-4) — 1:00pm ET FOX
Favorite: San Francisco (-3.5) O/U: 39.5
That 2-0 start for the Niners is looking more and more fraudulent as the weeks go on. Their offense seems broken and the defense looks gassed by the third quarter. Fortunately for them, the Bears aren’t doing much better. Chicago’s offense remains inconsistent on a weekly basis. The Bears have committed to developing Justin Fields for the rest of the season whereas the 49ers QB situation is, shall we say, murky. San Fran will be missing TE George Kittle while WR Deebo Samuel is questionable with a bum calf. This should prove to be one of the uglier games of the day.
DFS Player to Watch: Elijah Mitchell | RB | $5,400 DraftKings | $5,800 FanDuel
Elijah Mitchell is a name that’ll get more attention as the season progresses. While he’s only played four games so thus far, he’s racked up almost 300 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 4.7 yards a carry. With two-thirds of team snaps in the last three games, he’s a solid, under-the-radar pickup, especially with the 49ers’ muddled QB situation. And of course, being a home favourite never hurts as a running back selection criterion.
STEELERS (3-3) AT BROWNS (4-3) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: Cleveland (-3.5) O/U: 42.5
The Browns survived a wild one against the Broncos last Thursday with backup Case Keenum (199 yards, 1 TD). The Steelers are coming off a bye and looking for a divisional win. This week the Browns could have Mayfield back but how effective will he be with a fully torn labrum in his left shoulder and a fracture in his humerus? Meanwhile, Big Ben is clearly on the decline. This could end up being an old fashioned black and blue slugfest, one that boils down to whether Roethlisberger shows up against Cleveland’s superior defense.
DFS Player to Watch: Chase Claypool | WR | $6,300 DraftKings | $6,500 FanDuel
Chase Claypool averages a superior 16.3 yards a reception (WR1s average 13.3 YPR). He now faces a team that’s allowed the second-most FPsFantasy points More to receivers in the last 4 weeks. Moreover, the Browns may also be missing top cornerback Denzel Ward (hamstring). Claypool has one touchdown on the season but his breakout ability makes a bounceback probable here.
EAGLES (2-5) AT LIONS (0-7) — 1:00pm ET FOX
Favorite: Philadelphia (-3.5) O/U: 48
The Eagles and Lions may not be offensive (or defensive) juggernauts but, aside from one or two games, they’ve competed to the very last second against some brutal competition. Now they face each other in the motor city with the Lions desperate to get their first win. The Eagles may use the rest of the year to develop their young QB. Either way, both teams are starved for a win and will be as aggressive on play calling. The Lions defense is the worst in football, especially in coverage, so Philly has the edge.
DFS Player to Watch: Jalen Hurts | QB | $7,200 DraftKings | $8,400 FanDuel
Jalen Hurts is the reason the Eagles have stayed in games through the first seven weeks. He’s a legitimate dual threat that is hits value virtually every week. His touchdown to interception ratio isn’t great (10/5) but he still puts up good total yardage numbers. And now he gets to hone his passing attack against the bottom-rated secondary, according to Pro Football Focus.
TITANS (5-2) AT COLTS (3-4) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: Tennessee (-1) O/U: 49.5
The Titans and Colts are both coming off of impressive victories. The Colts may only be 3-4 but the offense and defense have picked up the pace dramatically in recent weeks. Their defense has allowed the fewest points to running backs of any team in the last four weeks. Their juggernaut rival from Nashville looks to have found a new gear, however, and they may be the team to beat in the AFC.
DFS Player to Watch: AJ Brown | WR | $6,900 DraftKings | $7,600 FanDuel
AJ Brown continues to be a reliable pickup for fantasy owners and a nightmare for opposing defenses. He is averaging 14.2 yards a reception and is coming off of a 133 yard/1 TD performance against the Chiefs. Meanwhile, his cohorts Julio Jones and Chester Rogers, both missed practices on Wednesday with injuries.
BENGALS (5-2) AT JETS (1-5) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: Cincinnati (-10) O/U: 43
The Jets suffered one of the worst losses of the 2021 season after a 54-13 shellacking by the Patriots. Their run defense needs a total makeover. The Bengals? They’re coming off of arguably the most impressive win of the season after their 41-17 road beatdown of the vaunted Ravens. Anything is possible in the NFL, including unimaginable upsets, but this game is about as close to a lock for the Bengals as it comes.
DFS Player to Watch: Joe Burrow | QB | $7,100 DraftKings | $7,800 FanDuel
Joe Burrow has been absolutely lights out this year averaging well over 3x value. His numbers through week 7? are ridiculously impressive: 1956 yards passing and 17 touchdowns. Those stats are only going to inflate against the woeful Jets defense.
RAMS (6-1) AT TEXANS (1-6) — 1:00pm ET FOX
Favorite: Los Angeles (-14.5) O/U: 47.5
The Rams struggled for a time against the 0-7 Lions last week but were able to seal the deal against Matt Stafford’s former team. They now travel to Houston to take another atrocious team, the Texans. The Rams may not always put together convincing wins but their top-ranked pass blocking and defense still get the job done. Vegas pegs this one as the weekend’s top blowout.
DFS Player to Watch: Matthew Stafford | QB | $7,600 DraftKings | $8,200 FanDuel
Matthew Stafford continues to be a man on a mission with his new team, averaging above the 3-century mark in passing each week. Houston, with the 4th-worst secondary according to PFF, should grant him a prime opportunity to pad his numbers further. Last week Stafford threw for 334 yards and three touchdowns against the Lions, averaging just over 8 yards per attempt. That’s his lowest YPA all year, yet it’s still impressive when measured against other QBs.
Sunday, Oct. 31st (Afternoon SlateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... More)
PATRIOTS (3-4) AT CHARGERS (4-2) — 4:05pm ET CBS
Favorite: Los Angeles (-5.5) O/U: 49
The Patriots just put together the most impressive win of Mac Jones’ young career with a 54-13 demolition of the New York Jets. This week their opponent is one of the top teams in the AFC coming off a bye in the Los Angeles Chargers. The storyline here, is how Bill Belichick is going to scheme against Justin Herbert, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler. The Patriots have played some peak opponents very close and suffered some heart breaking losses this season. We’ll see if the Chargers having more weapons offsets their horrendous run defense.
DFS Player to Watch: Damien Harris | RB | $6,100 DraftKings | $6,900 FanDuel
The Charger’s run defense is second only to Kansas City in ineffectiveness. That’s good news for Harris, who’s coming off back-to-back 100+ yard rushing performances against Dallas and the Jets. He’s scored a TD or two in each of his last three games and given the Pats’ middling passing attack, he should add 1-2 more in this one.
JAGUARS (1-5) AT SEAHAWKS (2-5) — 4:05pm ET CBS
Favorite: Seattle (-3) O/U: 43.5
This game had the makings of a blowout earlier in the season but Russell Wilson’s finger injury changes that. The Jags have improved dramatically in all phases since the season began. Trevor Lawrence, regardless of the final score, continues to show everyone why he was taken first overall. He put up 319 yards in his last game and faces a leaky Seahawks secondary. This is no gimme for the Seahawks.
DFS Player to Watch: Trevor Lawrence | QB | $5,500 DraftKings | $6,700 FanDuel
Trevor Lawrence comes at a discount on DraftKings. Yet, this game should be another opportunity for him to throw for high-200/low-300 yards against a defense ranked 21st against the pass.
THE WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (2-5) AT BRONCOS (3-4) — 4:25pm ET FOX
Favorite: Denver (-3) O/U: 43.5
Both Washington and Denver find themselves in the midst of a downward spiral that seems to get steeper every week. Both offenses continue to struggle to move the ball and as a result both defenses end up becoming fatigued from overplay. Both defenses are susceptible to deep passes and mobile QBs, and both quarterbacks have these abilities. Denver’s D has the upper hand, however, with WFT allowing the second most FPsFantasy points More to receivers this season.
DFS Player to Watch: Taylor Heinicke | QB | $5,300 DraftKings | $7,000 FanDuel
Taylor Heinicke continues to be a low risk high reward player for those in need of a 3.5x QB on a budget. In seven games this year he has only thrown for under 200 yards twice and in both of those games he also put up a passing TD. Last week he did his best Lamar Jackson impression, almost running for 100 yards. Regardless of the team’s issues across the board, Henicke continues to be a value producer.
BUCCANEERS (6-1) AT SAINTS (4-2) — 4:25pm ET FOX
Favorite: Tampa Bay (-5) O/U: 50
The last time the Bucs played the Saints in the Superdome it was in the divisional round of the playoffs and it turned out to be Drew Brees’ final game in his Hall of Fame career. This time, Brady and the Bucs head to New Orleans as favorites and will look to keep their impressive offense churning. Despite the Saints putting up some impressive wins, most notably in week 1 against the Packers, their top 10 defense faces a tall order against the league’s passing colossus. Notably, both defenses allow the same fantasy points per game to receivers (39) and are similarly adept at run stuffing.
DFS Player to Watch: Alvin Kamara | RB | $8,700 DraftKings | $8,400 FanDuel
Alvin Kamara has been Jameis Winston’s security blanket all season. His stats last week were impressive: 10 receptions, one touchdown and 179 total yards. His median performance the last four weeks has been 3x salary and this week he should remain the focus of Sean Payton’s game plan.
Sunday, Oct. 31 (Late SlateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... More)
COWBOYS (5-1) AT VIKINGS (3-3) — 8:20pm ET NBC
Favorite: Dallas (-2.5) O/U: 54.5
The Cowboys find themselves at 5-1 off their bye and looking for their sixth straight win against the Vikings on Sunday night football. The Vikings may only be 3-3 but they could just as easily be 5-1 themselves if not for a fumble in week 1 and a missed field goal in week 2. This may be the best Cousins has ever played and he’s a key reason the Vikings find themselves in the midst of a playoff chase. The same can be said for Dak. It’s the best he’s looked since his rookie campaign in 2016. Both teams are capable of lighting up the scoreboard but Minny’s defense ranks 4 while Dallas’s ranks 21, per PFF. And Minnesota’s noise-dome is not an easy place to play for anyone.
DFS Player to Watch: Kirk Cousins | QB | $6,500 DraftKings | $7,600 FanDuel
Kirk Cousins has been a fantasy machine this year. He’s only averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt but his 1769 pass yards and thirteen touchdowns, versus only two interceptions, speak for themselves. This week he’ll be throwing against a Dallas secondary that allows the third most points to receivers.
Monday, Nov. 1st
GIANTS (2-5) AT CHIEFS (3-4) — 8:15pm ET ESPN
Favorite: Kansas City (-10) O/U: 52
What is going on with the Chiefs? That’s a question every NFL fan has been asking themselves for the last several weeks. Some obvious answers come to mind. KC’s defense, against the pass and run, has been abysmal and Patrick Mahomes has regressed tremendously behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. That’s despite his stellar offense remaining mostly intact. The Chiefs’ have gone to back to back super bowls but last year’s loss to the Buccaneers exposed many of their weaknesses to other teams. If Mahomes is able to shake off his sudden turnover issues, victory in Arrowhead should come readily against the Giants.
DFS Player to Watch: Daniel Jones | QB | $5,600 DraftKings | $7,300 FanDuel
Daniel Jones may not be lighting the NFL world on fire and his touchdown to interception ratio leaves a lot to be desired (5/4) but his athleticism makes him an intriguing option against the Chiefs defense. It’s not just his ability to rack up yards through the air, it’s his ability to take off and run. When a team’s offense runs through one person it’s reasonable to predict they’ll yield fantasy value against poor defenders. At the very least, he’ll be an ultra low ownership option for GPPs.
About the Author: Steven A. Cravens has been a professional sports better and analyst for over a decade. As a former Fox Sports NFL researcher and data logger, he specialized in player profiling and performance statistics.
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all fantasy stats are based on point per reception (PPRPoint per reception This is a DFS scoring system that awards offensive players (e.g., WR, RB and TE) one point for each reception. This is the standard scoring method of DraftKings. More) scoring.
