Posted on by Steve Cravens

NFL Week 12 Predictions | 2021

NFL DFS predictions post here every week, including projected outcomes and players to watch for every matchup. For more player selections, check out our free NFL Lineup Builder (now in beta).

Thursday, Nov. 25th (Thanksgiving)

BEARS (3-7) AT LIONS (0-9-1) — 12:30pm ET FOX

Favorite: Chicago (-3.5) O/U: 41.5

Thanksgiving 2021 kicks off with the storied tradition of the Lions hosting an opponent in Motown. For the second straight year that opponent is the Chicago Bears. The Lions (31st-ranked defense, per PFF), remain winless through the first twelve weeks. Meanwhile, their NFC North brethren from across Lake Michigan (28th-ranked defense, per PFF) find themselves on a five-game skid of their own. Their latest loss comes after blowing a late home lead to a Ravens team that was sans Lamar Jackson. The Lions remain in the driver’s seat for the first overall pick and, despite their best efforts, look more and more likely to land it with each passing week. The Bears, at 3-7, have lost hope for a playoff berth and will be playing for pride. The Bears have the more talented roster but as we saw Sunday, more talent and/or team health doesn’t guarantee a win with Matt Nagy as your coach. Historically speaking, the Bears have never fired a coach in the middle of a season. If the Bears lose to the winless Lions in front of a national audience on Turkey Day, that might change.

DFS Player to Watch: David Montgomery | RB | $6,000 DraftKings | $7,500 FanDuel

If there’s one NFL rallying cry in 2021, it’s “Run against the lions.” David Montgomery had his best game of his season against them, tallying 106 yards rushing and two touchdowns. With Andy Dalton getting the start—due to Justin Fields’ rib injury—it’s likely Montgomery will see more touches than usual.

RAIDERS (5-5) AT COWBOYS (7-3) — 4:30pm ET CBS

Favorite: Dallas (-8) O/U: 50.5

The Cowboys ate an entire humble pie on Sunday, after being outclassed by the Kansas City Chiefs 19-9. The Raiders didn’t have it any better as they were dominated by the Bengals 32-13 at home. The difference here is that one team is firmly in control of their division and the other continues to succumb to off-field drama that has plagued their season. The Raiders have lost three in a row and none of them, with the exception of the Giants game, were particularly close. Vegas now visits a talented Cowboys team that will be eager to show home fans that they can get back in the winner’s column. The Raiders top-rated pass rush could be the key to getting an upset win. As Kansas City showed on Sunday, if your defense can get to Prescott with pressure, he’ll potentially unravel. All it takes is one turnover to completely change the momentum of a game. Things can snowball from there. Question is: Will the Raiders be able to put the same amount of pressure on Prescott as the Chiefs and Broncos?

DFS Player to Watch: Dak Prescott | QB | $6,900 DraftKings | $8,200 FanDuel

Dak Prescott was awful against the Chiefs, no sugarcoating that one. His fans will say he managed to throw for 216 yards despite relentless pressure from Kansas City, but the reality is, his two interceptions were on him. His inability to read what Kansas City was throwing at him defensively will likely be corrected this week. Dak rarely has back-to-back games where he stinks up the joint. Look for a strong bounce-back against a middling Raiders defense in the middle of a tail spin.

BILLS (6-4) AT SAINTS (5-5) — 8:20pm ET NBC

Favorite: Buffalo (-4.5) O/U: 46

It wasn’t that long ago that the Bills were being called the class of the AFC and a shoe-in for the AFC title game. Fast forward to now and those sentiments seem a little premature. Not only have the Bills lost 3 of their last 5 games, but they now sit one game behind the Patriots in the AFC East. Simply put, the Bills need this win like a dying plant needs water. The Saints are riding a three-game losing streak that has them at 5-5. New Orleans is hanging on for dear life to that seventh and final playoff spot. Truth be told this was going to be a tough matchup for Sean Payton’s team, even with Jameis Winston at the helm of the offense. But now, the task looks even tougher with Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill operating the offense without Alvin Kamara. The key to the Saints upsetting the Bills will have to come from Dennis Allen’s defensive play calling. The Saints 2nd-ranked defense has been in every game they’ve lost, minus their week 2 beatdown to the Panthers. If the Saints can pressure Josh Allen the same way the Jags and Colts did, they may just end their losing streak and bag that wild card spot.

DFS Player to Watch: Stefon Diggs | WR | $7,900 DraftKings | $8,300 FanDuel

Stefon Diggs continues to be one hell of a weapon for Josh Allen, despite their shoddy 2 and 3 record over the last five games. True, he only had 23 yards receiving last week in a blowout loss to the Colts, but he also recorded two touchdowns. Look for Diggs to bounce back from the low yardage on Turkey Day and have another high-scoring game.

Sunday, Nov. 28th (Early Slate)

STEELERS (5-4-1) AT BENGALS (6-4) — 1:00pm ET CBS

Favorite: Cincinnati (-4.5) O/U: 45

The Steelers made a valiant comeback attempt against the Chargers Sunday, ultimately losing 41-37 in a heartbreaker. The Bengals, on the other hand, are flying high after their Vegas beat-down of the Raiders. They’ll look to repeat their week 3 drubbing of the Steelers on the road. The Bengals won that one by 14. But this Steelers team is playing with much more heart and fire amid a slew of injuries on both sides of the ball. The Bengals have the firepower to give Pittsburgh the same fits they did back in September. The Steelers offense is much improved this go round, however, specifically Big Ben and his resurgent ability to air the ball down the field. Fans of ground and pound football will no doubt savor this one.

DFS Player to Watch: Joe Burrow | QB | $6,200 DraftKings | $7,100 FanDuel

Burrow continues his sophomore stardom in this home game. He faces a middling defense that’s only average versus QBs. Despite a forgettable past two weeks, this one should provide him ample opportunity to build upon his solid second-year numbers.

BUCCANEERS (7-3) AT COLTS (6-5) — 1:00pm ET FOX

Favorite: Tampa Bay (-2.5) O/U: 51.5

Now here’s a matchup! The 7-3 Bucs travel to Indiana to take on a Colts that’s rebounded from an 0-3 start to win six of their last eight, including a wildly impressive 41-15 throttling of the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo last Sunday. Each secondary has struggled with injuries. That could help each quarterback spread the field, given the time their lines tend to give them. While the Colts are not yet in a wild card spot, a win against the defending Super Bowl champs would go a long way. The Bucs are 5-0 at home this season but on the road they’ve been far less impressive 2-3. And all three losses were either by 2+ scores. The task at hand for the Colts is simple: rattle Brady. The Bucs have a much harder job: stop Jonathan Taylor. As the Bills’ run defense showed on Sunday, that’s far easier said than done.

DFS Player to Watch: Jonathan Taylor | RB | $9,100 DraftKings | $9,800 FanDuel

Jonathan Taylor is the heart and soul of the Colts. Their chances at victory run through him. Last week, against one of the better defenses in the league, he ran for four touchdowns, adding another TD reception. In total: 185 yards rushing plus an additional 19 yards receiving. It would be difficult and unlikely for him to maintain last week’s performance (two weeks in a row), but Taylor should impress nonetheless.

PANTHERS (5-6) AT DOLPHINS (4-7) — 1:00pm ET FOX

Favorite: Carolina (-1.5) O/U: 42

The Panthers offense reignited after Cam Newton returned to the team that drafted him first overall in 2011. Problem is, they lost a close one to former Carolina coach Ron Rivera. In order to get back into playoff positioning, the Panthers must beat a Dolphins team that’s riding a three-game win streak. Albeit, two of those three wins came against the Texans and Jets. The Panthers are more talented and their defense remains effective against the pass. But Miami’s defense has been the best in the NFL against the run, over the past four weeks.

DFS Player to Watch: Cam Newton | QB | $5,600 DraftKings | $8,000 FanDuel

Cam Newton looked terrific in his first full game back, despite the loss to Washington. He threw for 189 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for another TD. And that was in a brand new system. He could be a threat in the air against a Dolphins defense that’s allowed the 6th most points to WRs in the last 4 weeks.

TITANS (8-3) AT PATRIOTS (7-4) — 1:00pm ET CBS

Favorite: New England (-6.5) O/U: 44.5

The Titans suffered the loss of the week as they were soundly beaten at home by the previously 1-8 Texans. It was a bizarre loss where the usually reliable Ryan Tannehill threw one touchdown against FOUR interceptions. Now Tennessee travels to take on the blazing 7-4 Patriots. New England is on a five-game win streak and looks to be a legitimate AFC contender. Mac Jones and the Pats have seemingly found a gear, both offensively and defensively. In fact, over the last four weeks they’ve allowed the least fantasy points in the league.

DFS Player to Watch: Mac Jones | QB | $5,400 DraftKings | $6,800 FanDuel

Jones is doing well enough in his rookie campaign. He’ll add to his numbers against the Titans team that’s allowed the 6th most FPs to QBs since week #7. Last week he threw for one touchdown and a pic with 207 yards through the air. The Titans will provide a much stiffer test than the Falcons did, but this time Jones will be coming off of ten days rest and playing at home vs. on the road. Moreover, with his rushing unit banged up, New England will rely on him more.

EAGLES (5-6) AT GIANTS (3-7) — 1:00pm ET FOX

Favorite: Philadelphia (-3.5) O/U: 46

The Giants aren’t just a bad football team, they’re a bad organization from top to bottom. Consider that when the Giants rolled into Raymond James Stadium on Monday night, they came in with a 3-6 record, which was their best record at that point in the season since 2016. Putrid. Now they face an Eagles team that is peaking at the right time and putting up incredible numbers behind the elusive/explosive Jalen Hurts. This game, on paper, couldn’t be any more lopsided. But, because it’s a divisional game and because those matchups are usually unpredictable, it’s not a slam dunk win for Philly. Still, the Giants look woefully inept, poorly coached and out of their depth against most of the teams they’ve played. If the Giants defense has struggled containing pocket passers, imagine what Jalen Hurts might do to them with his mobility.

DFS Player to Watch: Jalen Hurts | QB | $7,300 DraftKings | $8,400 FanDuel

Jalen Hurts was our pick last week for the Eagles and there’s little reason not to select him again. The Saints defense is regarded as one of the best in the league and Hurts was still able to score 30.8 Fps, with three touchdowns. He could wreak havoc on the G-Men and their bottom-7 defense.

FALCONS (4-6) AT JAGUARS (2-8) — 1:00pm ET CBS

Favorite: Atlanta (Pick’em) O/U: 46.5

The Falcons rolled a donut against the Pats at home while the Jaguars got demolished by the Niners 30-10 in their own building. This game, on paper, looks like a matchup between two teams that have managed to win games despite coaching incompetence. The Falcons have the offensive firepower but their O-line has shown tremendous wear and tear in recent weeks. And, despite the Jaguars record they remain one of the better run defenses in the league.

DFS Player to Watch: Matt Ryan | QB | $5,500 DraftKings | $7,100 FanDuel

Matt Ryan was obliterated by the Patriots defense last Thursday but this week presents a more manageable task. Excluding his disastrous performance against the Patriots and Cowboys, Ryan has been a reliable fantasy option at a good price.

JETS (2-8) AT TEXANS (2-8) — 1:00pm ET CBS

Favorite: Houston (-2.5) O/U: 44.5

We’ll dub this game the “Tank Bowl” as the media debates the question: “Can the Jets and Texans catch the Lions for the 1st overall pick?” The reality is, neither team will benefit from a win in terms of draft standings but losing is contagious in the NFL. Both head coaches were brought in to install winning cultures after years of dysfunction. Barring a tie, someone has to win this thing. Despite being favored, Houston is the NFL’s worst offense. We’ll see if it can beat the league’s worst defense.

DFS Player to Watch: Elijah Moore | WR | $5,600 DraftKings | $6,400 FanDuel

Moore had a breakout performance last week with 141 yards and a TD on 11 targets. With Corey Davis now doubtful to play, the Jets may rely more on Moore. For a team that passes two-thirds of the time, he’s a low-risk play given his target share and modest salary.

Sunday, Nov. 28th (Afternoon Slate)

CHARGERS (6-4) AT BRONCOS (5-5) — 4:05pm ET CBS

Favorite: Los Angeles (-2.5) O/U: 47.5

The Chargers survived a wild one against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football — after suffering three losses in their last four games. Now they get an unpredictable Broncos team with an aggressive defense and a surprisingly potent offense — despite no household names at any key positions. Coach Fangio’s defensive acumen is off the charts and he may have the answers to neutralize Herbert and the bevy of weapons that the Chargers possess. If L.A. wants to be taken seriously as AFC contenders, they need to take this game and get back to winning.

DFS Player to Watch: Austin Ekeler | RB | $8,400 DraftKings | $8,400 FanDuel

Ekeler remains one of the most electric and elusive weapons in the entire NFL. He was a huge factor in the Chargers’ thrilling win over the Steelers on Sunday night with 50 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns on the ground and additional 65 yards through the air, plus two additional receiving touchdowns. The Broncos defense will be a stiff challenge but Ekeler’s versatility in the run and passing game should add up to good numbers.

RAMS (7-3) AT PACKERS (8-3) — 4:25pm ET FOX

Favorite: Green Bay (PK) O/U: 47.5

The Rams return from their bye to face a banged up Packers team coming off a brutal last second loss to the Vikings. This will be the first time Rodgers faces Stafford since moving to LA. The question is, have the Rams made the necessary adjustments to ensure their two-game skid doesn’t turn into a three-game skid. Rodgers is dealing with an injury he describes as worse than turf toe. Yet he continues to put up hefty numbers. Rodgers will have his hands full against the Rams, who will look to get Von Miller more involved in the pass rush. Big-time playoff implications are on the line.

DFS Player to Watch: Odell Beckham Jr | WR | $5,000 DraftKings | $5,800 FanDuel

Odell Beckham Jr. was barely noticed when he made his Rams debut against the Niners. But he’s now L.A.’s #2 behind Kupp. With two more weeks of learning coach McVay’s playbook, he should see more action against the Packers. In fact, McVay admitted this week that OBJ would be more involved than last game. And at just $5,000 on DraftKings, that’s good enough for us.

VIKINGS (5-5) AT 49ERS (5-5) — 4:25pm ET CBS

Favorite: San Francisco (-3) O/U: 48

Speaking of massive playoff implications, this game is about as close to must win for both teams as it gets this time of year. The Vikings and 49ers are both 5-5 and in contention for the final two playoff spots in the NFC. Both teams matchup very well, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Kirk Cousins has been a man on a mission all year, minus the Cowboys game. Jimmy G has also played like a man possessed over the last four games — despite the embarrassing loss to the depleted Cardinals. Garoppolo has been aided by Kyle Shanahan’s play calling and Deebo Samuel’s roaring presence. Which team has the edge? Hard to say. Usually home field advantage has its benefits but the Niners have won one home game in the last 393 days. Still, the Vikings are 0-2 in Levi’s Stadium and both losses came with Zimmer as the head coach. If the Niners can keep playing the physical brand of football they’ve exacted on the Rams and Jags, this could be a long day for the Vikings. Although, when dialed in, Minny is one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Both teams will be playing lights out to earn the tiebreaker over the other.

DFS Player to Watch: George Kittle | WR | $6,400 DraftKings | $6,700 FanDuel

Kittle has caught a touchdown pass in all three games he’s played in since his return from injury. While his numbers in the receiving department haven’t been world-beating, he’s still a huge part of the 49ers offense and a big mismatch for the Vikings defense. The Niners will look to run the ball heavily, but G.K. is still one of Garoppolo’s favorite targets.

Sunday, Nov. 28th (Late Slate)

BROWNS (6-5) AT RAVENS (7-3) — 8:20pm ET NBC

Favorite: Baltimore (-3.5) O/U: 46

Both the Browns and the Ravens won last week, but one was impressive and one wasn’t. The Browns beating the Lions 13-10 at home isn’t a victory so much as a mandatory achievement. The Ravens were able to upend the Bears on the road without Lamar Jackson, thanks to some 4th quarter heroics by backup QB Tyler Huntley. But as they say, a win is a win. At 6-5 the Browns find themselves at the bottom of the AFC North standings. They retain a strong pass defense and run game, and the return of Kareem Hunt will help the latter.

DFS Player to Watch: Nick Chubb | RB | $8,000 DraftKings | $8,000 FanDuel

Nick Chubb returned to the lineup last week and was able to put up 130 yards rushing against the Lions. Four out of his last five games have featured 100-plus-yard rushing performances. Chubb now faces the Ravens’ much stiffer defensive line, not to mention the return of Hunt. Yet, with Baker Mayfield as banged up as he is, it would behoove the Browns to utilize Chubb as often as possible.

Monday, Nov. 29th (MNF)

SEAHAWKS (3-7) AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (4-6) — 8:15pm ET ESPN

Favorite: Washington (-1) O/U: 46.5

Monday Night Football sees the Seahawks travel across the country to take on a 4-6 Washington Football Team, one that’s riding a two-game win streak. At 3-7 the Seahawks are as close to being dead in the water as you can be, but all it takes is one win to start a run. That is probably the mentality Pete Carroll is preaching to the locker room right now. Problem is, they’re battling a Washington team that is coming into their own. Taylor Heinicke is playing lights out against stout defenses, something the Seahawks do not possess. Both teams have low-quality coverage units and Wilson is going to have to out-throw Heinicke if the Hawks are to escape Washington with a ‘W’.

DFS Player to Watch: Taylor Heinicke | QB | $5,400 DraftKings | $7,300 FanDuel

Taylor Heinicke is clearly more comfortable behind center. Last week against the Panthers he threw for 206 yards and three touchdowns. If he can do that against Carolina on the road, how hard will he ball against the porous Seahawks defense in front of his home crowd?

About the Author: Steven A. Cravens has been a professional sports better and analyst for over a decade. As a former Fox Sports NFL researcher and data logger, he specialized in player profiling and performance statistics.

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all fantasy stats are based on point per reception (PPR) scoring.

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