Author: Robert DeLucia

The Week 13 NFL DFS slate has arrived and let’s make this 13 lucky. As always, we start with three matchups that could lead the slate in fantasy point production.

Shootouts Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

1. Miami Dolphins (-9.5) at Washington Commanders (+9.5)– O/U 49.5
   • WAS has allowed an average of 35 points per game across the last three weeks.
   • The Commanders are ranked dead last in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to QBs and second to last in FPs given up to wide receivers.
   • Sam Howell could keep Washington close as he’s averaging 25.4 FPs per game in his last five games.
2. San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) – O/U 46.5
   • Brock Purdy will be facing the second-worst defense in the league in FPs allowed to QBs.
   • Philadelphia’s D has been atrocious against WRs, with a DvPL4 of 55.9 fantasy points.
   • Jalen Hurts is coming off of a 5 TD performance that saw the quarterback continue his historic rushing pace.
3. Denver Broncos (+3.5) at Houston Texans (-3.5) – O/U 46.5
   • CJ Stroud had his fourth straight game throwing for over 300 yards while also chipping in a career-high 47 rushing yards in Week 12.
   • Devin Singletary should also have an opportunity to do damage, as the Broncos are ranked last in the league in FPs allowed to running backs.
   • Russell Wilson will also have plenty of chances to keep Denver in the game as the Texans have a DvPL4 of 23.8 fantasy points.

Rebound Plays:  3 stars coming off one or more dud performances, with strong matchups

1. Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers, $6,100
   • Following three straight games with at least 23 fantasy points, Purdy had just 11.5 in Week 12.
   • The Eagles have a horrendous DvPL4 of 33.2 FPs against QBs.
   • Philadelphia is giving up over 26 points per game across their last four, with much of the yardage in those games going to wide receivers.
2. Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers, $6,600
   • Thielen had just 2 yards in Week 12 off of 3 targets but saw 21 targets in his two games prior.
   • The veteran receiver has a great matchup in Week 13, as the Buccs are ranked 29th in the NFL in FPs allowed to WRs.
   • Despite the low target share in Week 12, Thielen has still seen 26% of his team’s targets during the last three games.
3. George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers, $6,200
   • Kittle will look to rebound from a sub-5 fantasy point outing against a Philadelphia D ranked 28th in the NFL in FPs allowed to tight ends.
   • The Eagles have a DvPL4 of 17.8 FPs against tight ends, which gives Kittle a chance to triple his salary.
   • Much like his QB, Kittle also had a floor of 23 fantasy points in his three games prior to Week 12.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

1. Zach Moss, RB, Indianapolis Colts, $4,600
   • Lowest TDCost on the slate, cheap salary, and -153 TD prop line.
2. Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers, $5,200
   • 2nd best TDCost and facing one of the worst run Ds in the NFL.
3. Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos, $5,400
   • 2nd best TDCost of any receiver and +130 TD prop line

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The Week 11 NFL DFS main slate is here, and it’s filled with bewitching matchups and unexpected X-factors. Let’s dive in and see which players could be an ace in the hole this weekend.

But first, here’s a rundown of three matchups that could lead the slate in fantasy point production.

Shootouts Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

1. Arizona Cardinals (+4.0) at Houston Texans (-4.0) – O/U 47.5
   • CJ Stroud is averaging 413 passing yards per game across his last two and faces an Arizona D ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed to QBs.
   • Kyler Murray looked solid in his season debut last week with 249 passing yards and another 33 yards on the ground.
   • Houston’s running backs have a favorable matchup as the Cardinals come in ranked 30th in FPs allowed to rushers.
2. Las Vegas Raiders (+12.0) at Miami Dolphins (-12.0) – O/U 48.0
   • Both teams struggled on offense in their last game but should improve given the softer defensive matchups.
   • Tyreek Hill has 8 TDs in 9 games this season
   • Josh Jacobs is averaging 18.3 FPs per game across his last three contests.
3. Chicago Bears (+10.0) at Detroit Lions (-10.0) – O/U 46.5
   • Both quarterbacks face a bottom 10 D in fantasy points allowed to QBs.
   • The Lions are coming off of a strong offensive showing with 41 points against the Chargers.
   • Bears wide receivers could exploit the Detroit D’s subpar 33.4 DvPL4.

Contrarian Corner: 3 Under-the-Radar Players to Watch

1. Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears, $4,100
   • The Bears haven’t scored more than 17 points in three weeks, but Kmet has a floor of 9.6 FPs in those games.
   • Kmet has seen 25 targets across his last three games.
   • The Lions are ranked 25th in the NFL in FPs allowed to tight ends.
2. Jahan Dotson, WR, Washington Commanders, $5,100
   • Dotson is coming off of a 2-target, 0-point outing in Week 10 but had 26 targets across his prior three games.
   • The wide receiver is going up against a Giant D with a DvPL4 of 34.8.
   • Dotson had touchdowns in back-to-back games prior to Week 10.
3. Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals, $4,400
   • McBride has been alternating between bust and boom the last four weeks but has seen 34 targets across those four games.
   • In his first game with QB Kyler Murray returning from injury, McBride had 131 receiving yards.
   • The Texans are ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.

Backup Brilliance: 3 Fill-in Players With Splash Potential

1. Tommy Devito, QB, New York Giants, $5,000
   • Devito has a solid matchup as the Commanders are dead last in the league in FPs allowed to quarterbacks.
   • The rookie QB tossed 2 TDs with just one turnover in Week 10.
   • While Devito only threw for 86 yards, he’s got a low price tag and can chip in yardage on the ground.
2. Quentin Johnson, WR, Los Angeles Chargers, $4,200
   • With Keenan Allen playing through injury and Mike Williams still out, Johnson has a chance at more opportunities.
   • Johnson found the endzone for the first time in his NFL career in Week 10.
3. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB, Cleveland Browns, $4,500
   • Thompson-Robinson is a massive dart throw and his most appealing quality is his low salary
   • The rookie QB is facing a Pittsburgh D with subpar coverage, and the Browns are at home, so it’s possible he could return 3X his salary (just needs 13.5 FPs to do so).

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

1. Devin Singletary, RB, Houston Texans, $5,300
   • Lowest TDCost on the slate with a -135 TD prop line
   • Huge 150 yard rushing performance last week and faces a soft ARI run D
2. Brian Robinson, RB, Washington Commanders, $5,800
   • 2nd best TDCost, a -122 TD prop line and a favorable NYG matchup
3. Donald Parham Jr., TE, Los Angeles Chargers, $3,100
   • Low 11.66 TDCost, TE Gerald Everett is out, and LAC WRs are banged up.

The Week 10 NFL DFS schedule reads like a Hollywood script, filled to the brim with high-stakes pre-playoff showdowns. We’ve got a lineup of matchups and gridiron gladiators.

But before we pull on our virtual helmets and dive headfirst into the player pit, let’s spotlight three heavyweight clashes with high scoring potential.

Shootouts Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

1. Detroit Lions (-1.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (+1.5) – O/U 48.5
   • The Chargers have a DvPL4 of 32.6 against WRs which is good news for a red-hot Amon-Ra St. Brown.
   • St. Brown has eclipsed 100 yards receiving in five of his last six games.
   • Detroit has given up yardage on the ground the last couple of weeks (113 ypg) which bodes well for Austin Ekeler.
2. Houston Texans (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) – O/U 46.5
   • CJ Stroud just had a historic outing that saw the rookie pass for 470 yards and 5 TDs.
   • Joe Burrow has been on fire during his team’s four-game winning streak and has just one game under 25 fantasy points.
   • Cincinnati runners have a favorable matchup as the Texans are bottom 10 in the NFL in FPs allowed to RBs.
3. Washington Commanders (+6.0) at Seattle Seahawks (-6.0) – O/U 45.5
   • The Seahawks have given up 57 points across the last two weeks while the Commanders have scored 51.
   • Sam Howell has thrown for 722 yards in his last two games and could continue to do damage through the air against a faltering Seattle D.
   • While the Seahawks only mustered 3 points in Week 9, they’re facing a Washington D ranked 30th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and WRs.

Contrarian Corner: 3 Under-the-Radar Players to Watch

1. Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers, $4,900
   • Harris has lost carries to Jaylen Warren this season, but the Pittsburgh RB has made the most of his opportunities with an average of 14 FPs per game across his last three.
   • The Packers are ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
   • Harris has a TD in two of the last three weeks.
2. Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans, $4,900
   • After duds in the first three weeks of the season, Schultz has just one game under 13 FP in his last five.
   • Schultz is coming off of a massive 130 yard performance and could keep things rolling against the Bengals and their DvPL4 of 17 against tight ends.
   • Schultz has a Tgt%L4 of 26%.
3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks, $4,100
   • Geno Smith barely threw over 150 yards in Week 9, with 63 of those yards going to Smith-Njigba.
   • Smith-Njigba has a solid floor of 12.3 fantasy points in his last three outings.
   • The Commanders are ranked 30th in the NFL in FPs given up to wide receivers.

Backup Brilliance: 3 Fill-in Players With Splash Potential

1. Joshua Dobbs, QB, Minnesota Vikings, $5,500
   • Dobbs replaced two Minnesota QBs in Week 9 and provided the Vikings with a big comeback victory.
   • In his first game with Minnesota, Dobbs scored three TDs while chipping in 66 rushing yards.
   • The veteran backup has averaged 20 FPs per game across his last four contests.
2. Daniel Bellinger, TE, New York Giants, $3,000
   • With Waller out in Week 9, Bellinger was able to grab three catches for 43 yards.
   • While the numbers aren’t great, Bellinger was second in yardage for the Giants last week.
   • The Cowboys are ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
3. Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings, $5,500
   • Cam Akers was unfortunately carted off the field midgame in Week 9 which leaves Mattison without much competition.
   • Mattison finished the game with a touchdown and a big 47-yard reception.
   • The Minnesota halfback is projected to get 18 opportunities in Week 10 which should give him plenty of chances to contribute.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

1. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals, $6,200
   • Lowest [TDCost] and a -171 prop line
2. Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers, $4,900
   • Second lowest [TDCost] and a +115 prop line
3. Devin Singletary, RB, Houston Texans, $4,700
   • Third lowest [TDCost] and a +135 prop line

If you’re trying to man your NFL lineups with unsung heroes at bargain prices, you’ve come to the right place. The cheat sheet that follows is a laundry list of week 9 NFL Players set to deliver in fantasy.

But before you check out those potential hits, let’s run through three marquee DFS matchups…

Shootouts Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

1. Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) – O/U 44.0
   • The Ravens are averaging 31 points per game during their three game winning streak.
   • Baltimore has rushed for over 120 yards in each of their last four games.
   • The Seattle D ranks 25th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers which bodes will for the Baltimore pass catchers.
2. Dallas Cowboys (+3.0) at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.0) – O/U 46.0
   • The Eagles D is ranked in the bottom 10 in FPs allowed to every offensive position other than running back.
   • With 6 TDs and just 1 INT in his last two games, Dak Prescott especially could exploit the Philly D.
   • Even if Prescott stays hot on O, the Eagles will surely keep up thanks to a matchup proof AJ Brown and his 27.9 FPs per game across his last four.
3. Indianapolis Colts (-3.0) at Carolina Panthers (+3.0) – O/U 44.0
   • Both teams are bottom 5 in the league in fantasy points allowed to running backs, with the Panthers ranking dead last.
   • The Panthers have been paltry on offense, but the Indy D is allowing an average of 38 ppg across their last three.
   • Adam Thielen has been the lone brightspot for the Panthers, with a floor of 15 FPs since Week 2.

Contrarian Corner: 3 Under-the-Radar Players to Watch

1. Taysom Hill, TE, New Orleans Saints, $4,700
   • The gadget tight end is always a coinflip, but has had a floor of 12.3 fantasy points over his last three games.
   • Hill is coming off of his best game of the season in which he lead the Saints in rushing yards while scoring 2 TDs.
   • The Bears are in the bottom half of the league in FPs allowed to every position, so no matter where Hill is on the field he’ll have opportunities to take advantage.
2. Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns, $5,300
   • Ford’s ankle is still banged up but prior to Week 8’s dud the Cleveland back was averaging 16.8 fantasy points per game from Week 2 to Week 7.
   • Arizona is all the way down at 30th in the NFL in FPs allowed to running backs.
   • The Cardinals have a DvPL4 of 22.1 fantasy points.
3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks, $4,300
   • The Baltimore D ranks second in the league in FPs allowed WRs, but with the focus on Lockett and Metcalf, the rookie wideout could take advantage of his opportunities.
   • Smith-Njigba has a TD in each of his last two games and has been getting red zone looks.
     

Backup Brilliance: 3 Fill-in Players With Splash Potential

1. Demario Douglas, WR, New England Patriots $4,000
   • Douglas led the Pats in receptions in Week 8 and should get more opportunities with Bourne out.
   • Over the last two games, Bourne has 13 targets and a Tgt%L4 of 20%.
   • The Washington D is ranked 31st in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
2. Darius Slayton, WR, New York Giants, $3,200
   • With Robinson nursing a knee injury and Waller set to miss Week 9, somebody on the Giants needs to get targets.
   • Slayton has a Tgt%L4 of 24%, despite no NY pass catcher doing anything in Week 8.
   • Daniel Jones is expected to be back behind center which should bode well for all pass catchers.
3. Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals, $3,700
   • McBride has filled in nicely for the injured Zach Ertz, scoring 25.5 FPs in Week 8.
   • The backup tight end saw a whopping 14 targets last week and pulled in 10 catches.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

1. Devin Singletary, RB, Houston Texans, $4,300
   • Houston’s lead back in week 9 features the lowest [TD Cost] on the slate.
2. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts, $6,400
   • Taylor’s low TD Cost is coupled with the best TD prop line (-132) on the slate; facing the worst run-D in CAR.
3. David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns, $3,800
   • Low TD Cost plus 9 receptions for 131 yards and a TD over his past two games.

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Week 8’s Main slate gives us another round of games with modest scoring projections, but for those looking to pluck some DFS treats, there remains a few sweet matchups.

Shootouts Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

1. New England Patriots (+9.5) at Miami Dolphins (-9.5) – O/U 47.0
   • New England’s O scored more points last week than they have in the last three weeks combined.
   • Mac Jones may keep that positive momentum going against a Miami D ranked 28th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to QBs.
   • Tyreek Hill is averaging nearly 129 yards per game and has scored at least 25 FPs in each of the last three games.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (-8.0) at Denver Broncos (+8.0) – O/U 46.0
   • Patrick Mahomes and the KC scorers will be salivating over a Denver D ranked bottom-10 in FPs allowed to every offensive position.
   • Kansas City’s backs love that Denver sits at the bottom of the NFL in fantasy points given up to RBs.
   • The Broncos have a median of 127 rushing yards across their last four games so they’ll try to get things going on the ground.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) – O/U 45.5
   • George Kittle will have his best matchup all season as Cincinnati comes in with a 14.3 DvPL4 vs TEs.
   • Both teams are looking to get their offenses back on track after mustering just 17 points each in Week 7.
   • After a slow start to the season, Ja’Marr Chase is averaging 121.5 ypg across his last four games.

Contrarian Corner: 3 Under-the-Radar Players to Watch

1. Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers, $4,900
   • Doubs fell out of favor after mustering just 4 yards in Week 6, but rebounded nicely in Week 7.
   • In half his games this season, Doubs has scored at least 18 fantasy points.
   • The Vikings have a DvPL4 of 31.0 so Doubs should get his share of scoring opportunities.
2. Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns, $4,100
   • While Moore hasn’t done much this season, he has seen 7 targets in each of the last two games to go along with some rushing opportunities.
   • The Seattle secondary has been nearly nonexistent lately, with a DvPL4 of 35.3.
   • Moore has a Tgt%L4 of 20% so he could take advantage of a Seattle D ranked 28th in FPs allowed to wide receivers.
3. Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles, $4,600
   • The Philly tight end is facing a Washington D ranked 25th in the league in FPs allowed to TEs.
   • After scoring less than 9 FPs in each game to start the year, Goedert has taken his game to the next level, averaging 18.7 fantasy ppg from Week 5 to Week 7.
   • Goedert has 22 targets in his last three games.

Backup Brilliance: 3 Fill-in Players With Splash Potential

1. Brandon Powell, WR, Minnesota Vikings, $3,200
   • While Jordan Addison has taken over the brunt of the work since Jefferson went down, Powell has steadily seen some work averaging 5 targets per game since Week 5.
   • The Vikings threw for 378 against a tough SF D so there are plenty of chances for Powell to capitalize.
   • With such a low salary, Powell only needs to eclipse double digits in fantasy points to provide value, which he did in Week 7.
2. Kareem Hunt, RB, Cleveland Browns, $5,200
   • Hunt has shown the ability to coexist with Jerome Ford and with Ford (ankle) likely limited, Hunt could see more touches.
   • The Cleveland RB has three TDs in his last two games.
3. Darrell Henderson Jr, RB, Los Angeles Rams $4,800
   • After not even realizing he would start for LA, Henderson led the Rams backfield in touches.
   • Despite not playing a game this year, Henderson still managed to rush for 61 yards and a TD.
   • Henderson had 18 rushes and a couple of targets in his 2023 debut.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

1. Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC Chiefs, $6,100
   • The lowest [TDCost] on the slate and a -131 TD prop against a weak DEN run D that should fall behind
2. Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals, $2,800
   • With the 4th best [TDCost], he’s filling in for Ertz (IR) and seeing growing targets as a check-down for Dobbs. It’s a tough matchup vs BAL but the price is right.
3. Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys, $7,500
   • 2nd best TD prop line on the board after McCaffrey and the Vegas line suggests DAL will be playing with a lead

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Week 7 is chock full of lacklustre matchups—with no games on the Sunday Main Slate having a total over 48.5. Nevertheless, there is gold in them there matchups. Read on prospectors, and stake your claim.

Shootouts Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

1. Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) – O/U 48.5
   • The Chargers are ranked 32nd in the league in fantasy points allowed to both QBs and WRs, which is good news for Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense.
   • Both KC and LA scored under 20 points in Week 6 and should get their offenses back on track this week.
   • Austin Ekeler had a dud in his return to health last week but should rebound against KC’s subpar run D.
2. Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Denver Broncos (+1.5) – O/U 44.5
   • The Broncos allow a DvPL4 of 33.3 FPs to RBs, which bodes well for AJ Dillon. RB1 Jones may be out though (check 90 mins before gametime).
   • The Packers aren’t much better against the run, ranking 27th in the NFL in FPs allowed to backs.
   • While Denver’s D has rebounded from their 70-point dismantling, they’re still allowing 26 points per game across their last three.
3. Arizona Cardinals(+8.0) at Seattle Seahawks (-8.0) – O/U 44.5
   • Kenneth Walker III could feast against a turnstile Arizona run D that ranks 30th in the league in fantasy points allowed to runners.
   • Prior to last week’s loss, Seattle had been averaging 33 points per game across their last three games.
   • ARI target leader Marquise Brown will get a chance to break out against a mediocre Seattle secondary.

Contrarian Corner: 3 Under-the-Radar Players to Watch

1. Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs, $5,000
   • The 72 yards Rice had last week were the most by a KC receiver this season. (Mind-boggling)
   • While Travis Kelce is the focal point of the Chiefs offense, this will be his first game this year facing a top ten D in FPs allowed to tight ends.
   • On the other hand, the Chargers rank dead last in the league in fantasy points given up to wide receivers.
2. Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants, $5,000
   • The Giants have been pitiful on offense, but Waller has seen his share of opportunities (18 targets across the last two games).
   • The tight end has a target share of 20% over his last four games.
   • He’ll look to find the back of the endzone for the first time this season with Tyrod Taylor behind center.
3. Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons, $5,100
   • London has had an inconsistent start, but he’s upped his fantasy point total in each of the last four games.
   • The Atlanta WR saw 12 targets last week and shredded a bottom-tier Washington D.
   • The Buccs have only been marginally better against WRs this season, ranking 25th in points allowed to the position. This is a critical division game for these teams.

Backup Brilliance: 3 Fill-in Players With Splash Potential

1. Zach Evans, RB, Los Angeles Rams, $4,000
   • With Kyren Williams banged up, Evans is likely to lead the Rams backfield in Week 7.
   • The Rams are facing a Pittsburgh D that ranks just 26th in the league in FPs given up to opposing runners.
   • The rookie runner got some touches in Week 6 so he does have a few reps under his belt.
2. Latavius Murray, RB, Buffalo Bills, $4,400
   • Murray will eat up the carries left by Damien Harris as the second back in Buffalo.
   • The Buffalo backup has a median of 1.5 red zone opportunities across his last four games.
   • The Bills could go up big in this one against the Patriots, which may lead to Murray getting more opps.
3. Adam Trautman, TE, Denver Broncos, $2,600
   • The Denver backup is far from a top option, but with Greg Dulcich out, Trautman’s low price tag limits risk.
   • He did manage 5 targets and a TD in his last full game as Denver’s primary tight end back in Week 5.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

1. Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns, $5,100
   • The lowest TDCost on the board and a -114 TD prop line against a beatable Indy run D.
2. Keneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks, $7,000
   • The best TD prop line on the slate at -215.
3. Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders, $5,800
   • Low TDCost, a -106 TD prop line and likely to be playing with a lead.

Draft a lineup in this week’s 
free NFL DFS contest for cash!