As Week 12 of the NFL unfurls, it’s make-or-break for some teams. Here are 12 value-ladden gridiron gladiators to watch as teams jockey for playoff position. But first, let’s dig into the top projected Week 12 NFL DFS matchups.
Shootouts Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) at Houston Texans (+1.5)– O/U 48.5
- CJ Stroud is averaging 387 passing yards per game across his last three games and is facing a Jacksonville D ranked 26th in fantasy points allowed to QBs.
- The Houston D is also kind to quarterbacks, ranking 22nd in the league in fantasy points given up to the position.
- Trevor Lawrence will have a chance to exploit that favorable matchup as he comes off of a 4 TD performance in Week 11.
- Buffalo Bills (+3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) – O/U 48.0
- Following the firing of their offensive coordinator, the Bills dropped 32 points on a solid New York defense.
- The Eagles have been brutal defending WRs, with a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. of 52.9 fantasy points.
- Stefon Diggs has slumped lately for the Bills with back-to-back duds, but a matchup against the league’s 32nd ranked defense in FPsFantasy points allowed to WRs should help him out.
- Los Angeles Rams (+1.0) at Arizona Cardinals (-1.0) – O/U 44.5
- The Rams have plenty of depth at running back which bodes well for LA as Arizona is ranked 30th in the league in fantasy points allowed to RBs.
- The Cardinals gave up over 400 yards to Houston last week and are giving up 25 points per game across their last four.
- Kyler Murray has looked good since returning to the Cardinals and has done ample damage on the ground, with 84 rushing yards in his last two games.
Contrarian Corner: 3 Under-the-Radar Players to Watch
- Tommy Devito, QB, New York Giants, $5,200
- The Third String QB for the Giants has 5 touchdowns across the last two weeks.
- The Patriots have a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. of 24 FPsFantasy points.
- After throwing for just 86 yards in Week 10, Devito rebounded in Week 11 and tossed a career high 246 yards.
- Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots, $5,800
- The New England D is averaging just 13 points per game across the last three weeks.
- The Giants have a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. 24.1 FPsFantasy points.
- Stevenson has seen plenty of targets, with 21 in the last four weeks.
- Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers, $4,900
- Johnson has just 33 receiving yards in the last two weeks but with the Steelers firing their offensive coordinator the WR may benefit from a fresh look.
- Despite the low yardage totals, Johnson does have a Tgt%L4 of 29%.
- The Bengals are ranked 27th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Backup Brilliance: 3 Fill-in Players With Splash Potential
- Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals, $4,600
- With Tee Higgins banged up, Boyd has a chance at more opportunities.
- Boyd has 18 targets across the last two weeks.
- The Pittsburgh D is ranked 20th in the NFL in FPsFantasy points allowed to WRs.
- Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints, $4,300
- With Michael Thomas leaving the game early in Week 10, Shaheed ended the day with 9 targets.
- Derek Carr should be back under center for the Saints in Week 12.
- The Falcons are giving up 28 points per game across their last three.
- Jake Browning, QB, Cincinnati Bengals, $5,200
- Browning has been with the Bengals since 2021 so he’s no stranger to this offense.
- The backup QB managed a TD and no picks after coming in midgame.
Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios
- Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND, $6,900
- 2nd best TDCostTD Cost is the implied cost of a touchdown based on the player's salary and the player's TD prop line. This field shows what you'd have to pay for the player (in salary) if you wanted a guaranteed touchdown from him, based on his probability of scoring and his current salary. Low..., favored at home against a TB run-D that is -1.1 standard deviations below average
- Justin Watson, WR, KC, $3,000
- Best TDCostTD Cost is the implied cost of a touchdown based on the player's salary and the player's TD prop line. This field shows what you'd have to pay for the player (in salary) if you wanted a guaranteed touchdown from him, based on his probability of scoring and his current salary. Low... of any WR, favored by -9.5 against average coverage and oming of a breakout week
- Trey McBride, TE, ARI, $4,700
- Best TDCostTD Cost is the implied cost of a touchdown based on the player's salary and the player's TD prop line. This field shows what you'd have to pay for the player (in salary) if you wanted a guaranteed touchdown from him, based on his probability of scoring and his current salary. Low... for a TE, +169 TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). line, playing LA’s 31st ranked D vs TEs, and a target magnet
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