Week 15 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet – 2023

This point of the NFL season is less about football and more about real estate, with teams scrambling over each other for a tiny plot of land called the “Playoff Spot.” Our Week 15 NFL DFS cheat sheet is filled to the gills with players battling to play more football. And before we dissect that jam-packed list, let’s peek at three games set to be as intense as a Black Friday doorbuster sale.

Shootouts Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

  1. Dallas Cowboys (+2.0) at Buffalo Bills (-2.0) – O/U 50.5
    • The Cowboys are averaging 38 points per game across their last four games.
    • Josh Allen has rushed for three TDs in his last three games while RB James Cook is averaging 17.6 fantasy points per game in his last four.
    • In the last five weeks, Dak Prescott has 16 touchdowns and just two turnovers.
  2. Washington Commanders (+6.5) at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) – O/U 49.0
    • The Rams are averaging 159 yards per game on the ground in their last three and have a floor of 31 points.
    • Washington’s D has a DvPL4 of 30.9 FPs against running backs which bodes well for Kyren Williams.
    • The Commanders, with just about the NFL’s worst coverage, have given up 45 points in back-to-back games.
  3. San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) at Arizona Cardinals (+13.5) – O/U 47.5
    • Brock Purdy followed up his Week 12 dud with two straight games over 300 yards
    • Deebo Samuel is on fire, with at least 37 fantasy points in each of the last two weeks.
    • The Arizona D has been susceptible to the run, giving up 163 yards per game in their last four matchups.


(Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire)

Rebound Plays:  3 stars coming off one or more dud performances, with strong matchups

  1. Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills, $8,400
    • Diggs has had less than 7 FPs in three of the last four weeks but does have 22 targets in his last two games.
    • This matchup with the Cowboys has the week’s highest spread at 50.5 so Diggs should have plenty of opportunities to rack up points.
    • The Dallas D has been incredibly stingy to running backs this year, ranked 4th in the NFL in points allowed to the position, so the Bills may look to the air more in this one.
  2. Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers, $6,200
    • Even with a rough Monday Night showing in Week 14, Love is still averaging 23.8 fantasy points per game in his last four.
    • Love gets a matchup with a Tampa Bay D ranked 28th in FPs allowed to QBs.
    • The Buccs have a DvPL4 of 22.5 fantasy points against quarterbacks.
  3. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $7,500
    • Evans had just one catch on 6 targets in Week 14 but has a target share of 28% in the last four games.
    • Evans had five touchdowns in his four games prior to Week 14.
    • While the Packers allow the 7th fewest FPs to WRs, Evans has proven to be matchup-proof as he recently dropped 32.2 FPs against a Carolina D that was ranked 4th best in that category.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

  1. Kyren Williams, RB, LA Rams, $7,500
    • 2nd best TDCost on the slate; -293 TD line; -6.5 favorite against a team allowing the most DraftKings points to RBs
  2. Jayden Reed, WR, GB, $4,900
    • Low ($11.42) TD Cost; 133 TD prop; facing weak coverage; favored by -3.5; 4.0 median value in last 4 games; playoff implications
  3. Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF, $9,300
    • Clearly McCaffrey isn’t cheap but price and value are two different things for cash games. With a -393 TD prop, his TDCost is under $12 and he faces the third-worst rushing defense in the last 4 games. SF is a -12 point fave.

Draft a lineup in this week’s free NFL DFS contest for cash!

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