Week 16 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet – 2023

​Tis the season, and in Week 16, the NFL is giving the gift of big matchups. Here are three key showdowns that could pad your DFS totals. After you’ve circled your matchups of choice, unwrap the player projections that follow to make your Week 16 merry and bright.

Shootouts Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

  1. Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) at Miami Dolphins (-1.5) – O/U 50.0
    • Before their 10-point dud in Buffalo, the Cowboys averaged 38 points per game in their previous four games.
    • While Miami’s Tyreek Hill is still banged up which could leave the door open for WR Waddle
    • Dallas just gave up 266 yards on the ground to Buffalo, which bodes well for Miami’s deep running game.
  2. Detroit Lions (-3.0) at Minnesota Vikings (+3.0) – O/U 47.0
    • Justin Jefferson will look to get things going against a Detroit D ranked 27th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
    • QB Nick Mullens just tallied 303 passing yards against the Bengals.
    • The Lions bounced back with 42 points last week after a tough loss to the Bears in Week 14.
  3. Indianapolis Colts (-2.0) at Atlanta Falcons (+2.0) – O/U 44.5
    • The Colts find themselves in the playoff hunt after a big win in Pittsburgh that saw Indy rack up 30 points.
    • The Colts allow a DvPL4 of 28.9 fantasy points to RBs which should help Bijan Robinson get back on track.
    • Gardner Minshew has been solid at QB, averaging 18.1 FPs per game across the last four weeks.

(Photo by David Jensen/Icon Sportswire)

Rebound Plays:  3 stars coming off one or more dud performances, with strong matchups

  1. DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears, $6,900
    • Despite scoring less than 10 FPs in Week 15, Moore is still averaging over 20 fantasy points per game during his last four games.
    • The Cardinals are ranked in the bottom ten in fantasy points allowed to WRs.
    • Moore has a Tgt%L4 of 33%.
  2. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons, $6,300
    • Robinson got nothing going last week as he mustered just 14 yards but has a great matchup with an Indy D ranked 29th in FPs surrendered to RBs.
    • The rookie runner is averaging over 5 targets per game across his last four games.
    • Prior to Week 15, Robinson had 4 touchdowns in four games.
  3. Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,300
    • Ridley hasn’t had a double-digit fantasy point outing in three weeks but has had plenty of opportunities with 25 targets in his last two games.
    • The veteran receiver faces a Tampa D ranked 29th in the NFL in FPs allowed to WRs.
    • The Buccs DvPL4 versus wide receivers is an accommodating 38.2 FPs.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

  1. Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL, $6,300
    • 2nd best TDCost; -138 TD prop; favored at home; will work hard to rebound after last week
  2. Cole Kmet, TE, CHI, $4,400
    • Best TDCost of any tight end; strong matchup; confirm he’s active (was Questionable with Quad)
  3. Michael Wilson, WR, ARI, $3,700
    • 2nd best TDCost for a WR; #1 WR in ARI now; Marquise Brown is out.

Draft a lineup in this week’s free NFL DFS contest for prizes!

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