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It’s week #1 and you’re choosing between two NFL rookies. Player A was a first round pick and Player B was a second rounder. What kind of performance can you expect from each, other things being equal?

To answer this, we looked back at the 2017 to 2021 NFL drafts. It revealed some interesting trends. And while the data that follows does not adjust for game matchups, it nonetheless gives you a sense for a player’s potential based on his draft round.

Tip: When building your NFL DFS lineup, you can screen for rookies using the [Experience] field. Simply load it as a column in the Player List and make the filter = 0. (Example)

Rookie Quarterback Performance

A starting QB will get you about 2.5x value on average, whether they’re a rookie or not.

The higher a QB’s draft rank, however, the greater his performance in general.

If you adjust for salary, history shows that QB fantasy production is at least 10% better for first-round than 2nd rounders, for example.

Despite their best efforts, first round QBs usually end up in the bottom third of all starting quarterbacks by year-end. That largely reflects the importance of experience in this league, especially at the quarterback position.

As for 3rd-round picks, they rarely start so the sample size is too small to make worthwhile conclusions. In the example above, Will Grier was the only 3rd-rounder in our sample who got a start in 2019. So you can’t read too much into this.

Note: For the purposes here, we measured performance of QBs based on: (A) their first start, and (B) their season-long performance. If a QB never played, he got all zeros, which brings down the averages. That was commonplace for third rounders — who typically never saw the field all season.

For more, see our guide: How to pick the best DFS QB

Rookie QBs to target in 2022

1. Kenny Pickett (WR, Drafted #20 by Steelers)

Why? Once he beats out Trubisky for a start, Pickett's arm accuracy and pocket poise should manufacture completions to Johnson, Claypool, Harris & Freiermuth

Rookie Running Back Performance

Here’s where you see a wide gap between first and later rounders. The NFL clearly biases youth over experience at the running back position. Teams that draft RBs in the first 32 picks do so because they plan to feed them a dozen-plus carries per game.

First-round running back picks start more often, and are more ready to make an immediate impact than most other positions. Indeed, when the season ends, first round RBs rank far higher at their position than any other type of player.

Top RB picks tend to dramatically outperform later rounders because they’re used as feature backs more often. Hence, they get more snaps — and opportunities is the name of the game.

The performance of Day 2 picks is far more reliant on the depth chart and rushing share because they often platoon. Keep a close eye on projected rushing attempts [PrjRushAtt] early in the season.

As for third-rounders, they’re much more of a gamble in this pass-heavy NFL era. They’re best used as fill-ins when the #1 halfback goes down. You’ll find such opportunities by checking our NFL injuries page weekly.

Historical stats aside, the team a rookie back plays on is significant. Naturally, pass-heavy teams are usually not as conducive to rookie RB production, especially teams who platoon.

For more, see our guide: How to pick the best DFS running back (RB)

Rookie RBs to target in 2022

1. Breece Hall (RB, Drafted #36 by Jets)

Why? Hall, the top RB in the draft, dominated college with a 5.8 YPC average and 20+ TDs in his last two seasons.

Rookie Wide Receiver Performance

Receivers take longer to develop than running backs and receivers often have more competition for opportunities.

As a result, starting first-round receivers tend to be priced more economically. And for the most part, they deliver decent value.

In fact, WRs tend to feature the highest value of any position in week one.

Interestingly, if you compare the performance of 2nd and 3rd rounders, it’s not dramatically different, at least not early in the season.

Once you get to fourth-rounders, however, expect significant target drop-off in their rookie campaigns.

It’s notable that season-long performance tends to be fairly close for round #1 and #2 picks. In fact, in our small sample above, 2nd rounders actually outperformed 1st rounders (on average) in the prior five years. Just keep in mind, this table is based only on the first selection in each round, so we can’t read too much into it statistically.

Where productivity really starts to shine is in a receiver’s sophomore season. Indeed, PFF data shows that receivers improve more in their second year than players from any other offensive skill position. That said, receivers who become WR1’s tend to do it most often in their third season, according to FantasyPros.

For related tips, see DFS Hub’s guide on how to pick the best DFS wide receiver (WR)

Rookie wide receivers to target in 2022

1. Drake London (WR, Drafted #8 by Falcons)

Why? Calvin Ridley's out for 2022 and London has no competition for the WR1 role.

2. Chris Olave (WR, Drafted #11 by Saints)

Why? Jameis Wintson will be back throwing long balls and Olave knows how to stretch a field.

Rookie Tight End Performance

Unless a rookie tight end is the clear starter, he’s not going to be worth much investment. Early season production falls off dramatically as you move to the second and third round picks.

There’s only a small single-digit probability that a tight end outside the first round will finish the year in the top 10.

And to our recollection, there’s never been a season-long fantasy point leader at the TE position that was selected after the first round. Clearly, late-round ends are the longshot of all longshots.

For more, see our guide: How to pick the best DFS tight end (TE)

Rookie tight end to target in 2022

1. Trey McBride (TE, Drafted #55 by Cardinals)

Why? Exceptional hands and football IQ, but wait till you get him cheap enough or he beats out Zach Ertz for a start.

Conclusion

A player’s NFL Draft round has typically been a solid indicator of success, but that’s especially true when it comes to quarterbacks and tight ends drafted on the first day. Ultimately, however, the single most important factor is always opportunities. The first question to ask therefore remains: Will the rookie start?

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Note on methodology: The 2017 to 2021 data used to compile these tables come in part from DFS Hub, Pro Football Reference and Daily Roto. The averages displayed are compiled from the top picks in each round.