In week 1, DFS Hub is serving up a four-course meal of contrarian picks, backup gems, and high-value props, led off by our house selection of NFL games to target.
And while we’re not claiming to have cracked the DFS Da Vinci code, we’re working our socks off to ensure these NFL DFS Week 1 notes pack a punch. (Note: This fantasy buffet is cooked up specifically for Sunday’s “main slate” DraftKing’s contest.)
Shootouts: 3 Games That Could Generate Hefty Fantasy Totals
Here’s a trio of matchups with the potential to rain fantasy points like confetti at a Mardi Gras parade.
The implied game script suggests the Jags may go on cruise control with Travis-Etienne in the second half
Contrarian Corner: 3 Less Popular Players Who Could Sparkle
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers, $4,900
Brandon Aiyuk had a strong finish to the regular season last year, averaging 17.6 fantasy points in his final three games prior to the playoffs.
George Kittle is on the mend, leaving a bit more room in the once-crowded 49ers offense for Aiyuk.
Many would consider Aiyuk the 49er’s 5th-highest FP-scorer. This week he could prove more fruitful.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens, $6,600
It’s Houston. The Texans are 2 standard deviations below average in PFF run defense grade.
At BAL -10, J.K. Dobbins could enjoy bonus carries if this one gets lopsided early.
He’s projected to be only 3% owned and has a +102 TD prop line.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans, $4,600
The Texans are huge dogs against the Ravens but somebody has to eat on this offense.
During his last four games of 2022 Dalton Schultz had five touchdowns with a floor of 8 targets
He could offer much-needed support for his rookie quarterback.
HOUSTON, TX – AUGUST 19: Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz (83) in the second quarter during the preseason NFL game between the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans on August 19, 2023 at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire)
Backup Brilliance: Fill-in players at cheap salaries with splash potential
He also managed to run for over 1,000 yards while sharing the backfield in Detroit.
Williams has the third-best [TDCost] of any player on the main slate.
(TD Cost is a DFS Hub field that measures how much a guaranteed TD would cost based on the player’s salary and prop-implied probability of scoring. Lower numbers are better.)
Prop Bonanza: Players with high prop-to-salary ratios
Marvin Mims Jr., WR, Denver Broncos, $3,000
Speedy Marvin Mims Jr. has the best [TDCost] of any player on the main slate
He should be in line for more targets with Jerry Jeudy (hamstring) not practicing in full this week
Vegas had a coverage grade that was 1.5 standard deviations below average last year (i.e., ca ca).
Cam Akers, RB, LA Rams, $6,200
Cam Akers is coming off three straight 100-yard performances and Seattle has only an average Run-D
WR Cooper Kupp is out and Akers can catch out of the backfield
He’s got a +102 prop TD line, a favorable TD Cost of $12.52 and he plays very well in Lumen field
Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins, $5,400
Speedster Raheem Mostert is top 4 on this slate in yards after contact & Miami’s WRs will spread the field
He faces a porous run-D (LAC gave up 5.6 ypc in 2022) and has modest expected competition for carries.
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How Not to Fumble Your 2023 NFL DFS Week One Roster
Week 1 of the NFL is a magical time, a time when hope springs eternal, spouses and non-football friendships are put on hold, and everyone thinks they’re the next Vince Lombardi of fantasy football.
It’s a chance to start fresh and set the tone for the rest of the season. But before you dive into building your lineup like a hungry linebacker at a buffet, let’s review the basics.
When it comes to Week 1 NFL DFS, change is the theme. Teams have been playing musical chairs more than a kindergarten class party, so it’s essential to keep up with free agency, trades, rookies and injuries.
And don’t forget about the coaching staff changes. NFL teams have been changing coaches this offseason more than DK Metcalf changes his hairstyle. Understanding how these swaps affect players’ opportunities—on their revamped offenses and defenses—can give you an edge.
So grab your helmet (the one with the drink holder, of course), and let’s study the week 1 playbook.
NFL Offseason Changes and their Impact on Daily Fantasy Football
Navigating the turbulent seas of NFL offseason is a sport in itself. When a player changes teams, you’d better believe their role and production potential will change too. The question is, for the better or worse?
Take Aaron Rodgers’ departure from the Packers to the Jets, for instance. Going from the cheese factory to the Big Apple gets him new teammates, a new playbook, and even a new favorite pizza place. But hold on, it also includes a reunion with a coach who knows Rodgers’ favorite color. Could this be the key to fantasy success? It’s every DFS player’s job to research and find out.
It’s important to consider factors such as offensive scheme, supporting cast, position on the depth chart, and chemistry with his new team. DeAndre Hopkins may have big-name swagger, but are he and Tannehill going to have enough chemistry to surmount the Titan’s craptasticO-line? The answer could make all the difference in someone’s Week 1 Lineup.
Now, let’s talk coaching changes, the spices of daily fantasy football stew. A sprinkle of new offensive philosophy here, a dash of play calling there, and suddenly your star player tastes more like a benchwarmer.
Whether it’s a head coach’s innovative ideas or an offensive coordinator’s love for running the ball, a coaching change can shake up fantasy expectations like a snow globe. Sometimes it’s a winter wonderland of opportunity; other times, it’s a blizzard of disappointment for a player’s production.
(Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)
Outdated DFS Pricing and Why You Should Stalk NFL Players (For Injury Reports, Not Autographs)
Injuries in the NFL are like late-night infomercials, unavoidable and often confusing. I mean, who needs a salad spinner that doubles as a karaoke machine? But back to football! When crafting your Week 1 NFL DFS lineup, one must channel their inner Sherlock Holmes to decipher the ever-changing riddles of injury reports and game-time decisions.
Imagine investing your hard-earned fantasy dollars in a superstar who’s nursing an injury, only to find out that he’s benched, doing sudoku on the sidelines. “Questionable” is then more than a status; its becomes the label for your entire lineup.
So, sharpen those detective talents, dear Watson, and keep one eye on DFS Hub’s injury alerts, one eye on our player news feed, and the other on Twitter (assuming you have a third eye). Lineup adjustments in the 90 minutes before kickoff are like the twist in a mystery novel – thrilling, and sometimes rewarding.
Now, let’s talk about Week 1 pricing. Week 1 DFS salaries can get more outdated than wall-to-wall shag carpet. They’re set way in advance, ignoring pre-season injuries, sudden drops down the depth chart, pre-season suspensions and new signings.
This oversight and a willingness to make last-minute lineup changes can be your golden tickets. While others are blindly scouring the clearance aisle, you can grab some prime value plays for NFL Week 1—players who are healthy and poised to see ample opportunities. It’s like finding a designer suit at a garage sale, minus the awkward haggling.
How to Not Let Late-Breaking News and Lineup Changes Tackle Your DFS Dreams
In the rapid-fire rodeo of professional football, surprises are as common as touchdown dances. Let’s talk about how to stay on top of NFL news without feeling like you’re trying to catch a greased pig at a county fair.
Imagine you’ve got your DFS lineup set, you’re feeling smug, maybe even humming “We Are the Champions,” when suddenly – BAM! – a trade happens, a first-round pick goes down, a coach goes rogue and unexpectedly starts a 3rd-rounder in place of a tested vet, or a third-string towel boy gets promoted to starting quarterback. Anything’s possible in the Twilight Zone of Week 1.
True DFS gurus channel their inner news hound. They follow reputable sources of NFL news like beat reporters and verified team accounts. Stalk these sources on DFS Hub’s news and Twitter feeds like a cat stalks a laser pointer, but with more dignity.
DFS Hub’s New & Twitter Feeds
Rookie Roulette: How to Invest in Baby-Faced Gridiron Gladiators Before Their DFS Stock Skyrockets
Ah, rookies – those fresh-faced football fledglings, sporting a mix of nervous jitters and bold dreams. In the world of DFS, they’re like that hidden gem at a garage sale, a potential masterpiece hiding behind grandma’s old knitting patterns.
So how can you use these budget-friendly, cleat-wearing cherubs to your advantage in your NFL DraftKings or FanDuel lineup? Well, first, let’s talk cold, hard cash. Rookies are often priced like a fast-food dollar menu, making them the go-to choice for thrifty DFS players looking for value. You’ll find receiver options galore in the $4,000 range. As for running backs, it depends if it’s a high-profile first-round starter like Bijan Robinson ($8,000). If so, he’ll start the season fully-priced cuz hype ain’t cheap.
Now, let’s take a stroll down memory lane to last season using DFS Hub’s WhichStatMatter’s page. After week 1, Chris Olave, that superstar rookie wide receiver of the New Orleans Saints, was popping out high-value games like a popcorn machine in overdrive. He had seven of his nine highest-value games in the first half of the season. Why, you ask? Because his salary was lower than a limbo stick, sitting pretty at a lowly $4,500 for the first three weeks.
So, next time you’re puzzling over your DFS lineup and contemplating whether to go with the tried-and-true veterans or take a gamble on the rookies, embrace a high-probability rookie or two. But do it before they become pricier than a stadium beer.
(Photo by David Jensen/Icon Sportswire)
Rookie Revelry and the Art of Owning Underdogs
Picking which rookies to roster in your Week 1 NFL DFS lineups is like a thrilling treasure hunt mixed with a bit of “eeny, meeny, miny, moe.” You see, it’s not just about grabbing the bargain-bin rookies like they’re half-priced socks on Black Friday. Oh no, my fantasy fanatic friend, you’ll need to don your thinking cap, and consider three things:
Matchup Mania: Look for those juicy matchups, the ones where rookies have the chance to shine like a freshly waxed bald head. Maybe it’s a defense that’s softer than your grandpa’s mashed potatoes, or a game where the rookie gets more playtime than a pre-K class. Either way, finding these mismatches is like finding a twenty-dollar bill in old jeans – unfettered joy.
The Underdog Uprising: Even if a rookie’s not first on the depth chart, don’t discount them. If their team is predicted to trounce the opposition, they could very well get added targets or carries.
Owning the Obscure: Lastly, let’s talk ownership percentage or, as I like to call it, “How to Be a DFS Hipster.” Low ownership is your secret weapon in tournaments (GPPs). It’s like discovering an indie band before they become mainstream. If everyone’s eyeing wide receiver Smith-Njigba of the Seahawks, why not flex a Dalton Kincaid of the Buffalo Bills? It’s so uncool, it’s cool!
In any case, don your virtual coaching whistle and become a master of rookie matchups and ownership numbers. And remember, picking rookies is a bit like dating – exciting, unpredictable, and sometimes you’ll wonder what you were thinking. But when it works out, oh boy, it’s a dance in the end zone!
Preseason Data: Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Meaningless Games
Preseason games are where stats mean nothing and rookies try to shine like a new car before its first scratch. If NFL DFS were a movie, preseason data would be the quirky side character that steals scenes but doesn’t actually affect the plot.
Lance McCutcheon, the LA Rams’ rookie sensation last season, was their leading receiver in all three preseason games! His hands were like high-power football magnets; surely, a star was born! Fast forward to the regular season, and suddenly those magnets got a polarity switch – five targets, no catches across ten games. His preseason hype train went from express to out-of-commission right quick.
You see, overvaluing rookies based on preseason heroics is a bit like judging a book by its cover, a movie by its trailer, or a cat by its willingness to sit on your lap. It’s superficial, and you might end up with claw marks.
Of course, rookies aren’t the only actors with misleading performances, but unless it’s a veteran player returning from injury and trying to show he’s healthy (and not just trying to impress his Instagram followers), most preseason stats are about as useful as a sunroof on a submarine.
So, as you gear up for week 1, think of preseason data as the zesty salsa to your research and analysis chips – a fine supplement, but not the main meal. And remember, if you’re ever tempted to hop aboard a preseason hype train, make sure to validate your ticket with some serious research, or you might just find yourself at the wrong station, wondering why Lance McCutcheon isn’t catching anything but flak.
(Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)
Conclusion: How to Craft a Week 1 NFL DFS Lineup That’s Not a Train Wreck
Building a cashable lineup isn’t about using your gut and hoping for the best. It’s a majestic dance of research, strategy, and a sprinkle of that magical fairy dust called luck. It’s a bit like baking a cake, but with more analytics and fewer eggs.
Here’s the four-star recipe to help you whip up a Week 1 victory:
Understand the Game Script: Analyze matchups, trends, and whether a player prefers has his coach’s favor.
Monitor Injuries and Changes: Stalk injury reports like a cat stalking a laser dot. Just don’t pounce on your screen; it hurts.
Stay Up-to-Date with Player News: Because in the NFL, changes happen faster than a toddler’s mood swings.
And if all of that sounds more complicated than explaining the offside rule to your grandma, fear not. DFS Hub’s Free NFL Lineup Builder is here to make your Week 1 DFS success as easy as finding a cat video on the internet.
The NFL Draft has a rich history of supplying rookies that make a DFS impact, right out of the gate.
Sometimes first-round picks boost their teams’ fortunes right away, making Pro Bowls and earning Rookie of the Year honors while they’re at it. Cam Newton (2011, 1st overall) Odell Beckham Jr. (2014, 12th overall) and Ezekiel Elliott (2016, 4th overall) are just a handful of examples.
Today we’ll look at first-rounders from the 2023 NFL Draft, specifically those who could yield DFS value early in the season. We’ll review all four offensive skill positions to find the rookies that could return surplus DFS [Value].
Value, in this context, refers to DraftKings fantasy points divided by the player’s DraftKings salary. Aiding in this endeavor is DFS Hub’s WhichStatMatters page. If you haven’t seen it yet, check out the infinitely different ways in which the WhichStatMatters page ranks DFS performance.
Quarterbacks
KANSAS CITY, MO – APRIL 27: Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud with a jersey after being drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft on April 27, 2023 at Union Station in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)
For the 2022-23 season, starting quarterbacks generated an average of 17.2 fantasy points per game at an average DraftKings salary of $6k ($6,000).
Do a little division (17.2 / 6) and, the typical starting quarterback provided 2.8 times their salary last season.
There are two high-probability QBs that could exceed that value in the 2023-24 NFL campaign:
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers – The first overall pick out of Alabama will be an early favorite to be crowned the 2023 Rookie of the Year. Despite the paltry offense fielded by the Panthers last season, Young will have newly added veteran wide receiver Adam Thielen to rely on. The rookie QB will also be joined by running back Miles Sanders, who comes over from the Philadelphia Eagles. On top of that is another important new face in former Rams coach Thomas Brown, who will be Young’s offensive coordinator.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans – Stroud is a pure pocket passer which may limit some of his DFS upside, but he should be able to make up for it with pinpoint accuracy and limited turnovers. With Dalton Schultz making the move from Dallas to Houston, the rookie quarterback will have a trustworthy tight end to dump off passes to. Schultz supplements wideouts Robert Woods and Nico Collins. Talented young running back Dameon Pierce is also in the mix for Stroud, if he finds himself in trouble. Perhaps most importantly, Houston has beefed up its O-line, both in the draft and via free agency.
NEW ORLEANS, LA – DECEMBER 31: Alabama Crimson Tide running back Jahmyr Gibbs (1) attempts to break a tackle by Kansas State Wildcats safety Josh Hayes (1) during the Sugar Bowl between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Kansas State Wildcats at Caesars Superdome on December 31, 2022 in New Orleans, LA. (Photo by Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire)
Last year, starting running backs (those first on Depth Chart) had an average of 14.5 fantasy points per game and an average $6,500 salary on DraftKings. That meant the typical starting running back yielded 2.2 times their salary last season.
Here are two rookie halfbacks that could easily exceed that figure throughout their rookie year:
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions – The biggest downside to Gibbs in the Lions backfield was D’Andre Swift. That problem is solved with Swift being quickly traded after the draft. The Lions shocked draft watchers by scooping up Gibbs with their 12th overall pick, and they won’t be disappointed. While not a brute back, he’s a fast accelerating runner with moves and a talented receiver. Running behind one of the best lines in football, he’ll have every opportunity to fill up the stat sheet come September. And his price may be reasonable too, given he’ll split time with Montgomery.
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons – It’s hard not to be excited about a player with comps to Saquon Barkley. Robinson is electric. He catches the ball and runs with the patience and ferocity that makes it hard for just one defender to take him down. While the Falcons didn’t necessarily need a running back, Robinson is considered by many to be a can’t-miss prospect. He’ll enter the league with the same gusto that Barkley did back in 2018 and get all the touches he can handle.
KANSAS CITY, MO – APRIL 27: Ohio State wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba holds a jersey with commission Roger Goodell after being drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft on April 27, 2023 at Union Station in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)
For the 2022 season, starting wide receivers (those first and second on the depth chart) had an average of 12.2 fantasy points per game at an average DraftKings salary of $5,700. This means that, on average, a starting wide receiver returned 2.1 times their salary.
Both Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson came out of the 2022 NFL Draft on fire. Here are two more pass catchers that could do the same in 2023:
Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks – With the 20th pick of the draft, the Seahawks have given QB Geno Smith another big-time weapon. This shows they’re invested in Smith and, in turn, trust that Smith-Njigba will contribute right away. The rookie WR can play in the slot or on the outside, allowing him plenty of routes alongside DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens – Between injuries and underperformances, the Ravens didn’t have any sure things at the wide receiver position. Flowers will see his fair share of targets alongside Odell and Rashod Bateman. He has a history of making good use of those targets with an impressive YAC. Look for Flowers to be a high-impact player for Lamar Jackson in the slot.
LAS VEGAS, NV – DECEMBER 02: Tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) of the Utah Utes reacts during the Pac-12 Conf. championship game between Utah and USC on December 2, 2022 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Speer/Icon Sportswire)
This past year, starting tight ends had an average of 8.5 fantasy points per game and an average DraftKings salary of $3,900. On average, a starting tight end provided 2.1 times their salary in DK points.
Historically, first-year tight ends have had a tough time making an immediate fantasy impact in comparison to other skill positions. And with only one TE taken in the first round this year, all eyes will be on one rookie.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills – While the Buffalo Bills already have a dependable tight end in Dawson Knox, the Bills couldn’t pass up Dalton Kincaid, far and away the best tight end in the draft. While Kincaid joins an already-packed offense filled with big-time pieces, Kincaid will get his chances. Moreover, he’s capable of making the most of them with sticky hands and burst-speed that create separation. Expect him to have a low DFS salary early in the season and, as such, a high chance at providing great value in the right matchups.
