NFL Week 1 Predictions | 2021

NFL DFS predictions post here every Tuesday night. Get projected outcomes and players to watch for every matchup, every week. (We respond to all reader comments so send ’em our way.)

Thursday, Sept. 9th


COWBOYS AT BUCCANEERS — 8:20pm EST NBC

Favorite: Tampa (-8)

The Super Bowl LV champs will kick off the 2021 season by lifting their title banner to the rafters. And they’ll do it in front of their home crowd and the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys had one of the worst pass defenses in the league last year, but have added new pieces to bolster their secondary (Keanu Neal, Malik Hooker). Former Falcons head coach Dan Quinn takes over as Defensive Coordinator.

The Buccaneers are returning all 22 of their Super Bowl starters, as well as their head coach, offensive and defensive coordinators. This could be a long night for the “boys” against the most balanced team in the league.

DFS Player to Watch: Mike Evans | WR | $6,500 DraftKings | $7,600 FanDuel

Bruce Arians and Brady should attack the the Cowboys’ suspect secondary early and often with their bevy of weapons. Seeing the most action out of the bunch could be Evans. He led the team in receiving yards last year and could repeat the feat this year.

Sunday, Sept. 12th (Early Slate)


EAGLES AT FALCONS — 1:00pm EST FOX

Favorite: Atlanta (-3)

The Eagles are embarking on a complete rebuild under first-year head coach Nick Sirianni. The Falcons, also under the stewardship of a first-year head coach—Arthur Smith—are in a much foggier position. Their biggest loss is clearly franchise legend Julio Jones, but the Falcons still have a strong offensive roster on paper with Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley and highly touted rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. Look for the Falcons’ offense to test the new look Eagles’ secondary throughout the game as their defense tries to stifle Jalen Hurts.

DFS Player to Watch: Kyle Pitts | TE | $4,400 DraftKings | $6,000 FanDuel

Matt Ryan has had plenty of explosive players at his disposal over the years, but none were built like this 6’6, 246-pound behemoth out of UF. Born and raised in Philly, the rookie will benefit from Jone’s departure and might just put on a show against his hometown team.


STEELERS AT BILLS — 1:00pm EST CBS

Favorite: Buffalo (-6.5)

The Steelers will travel to face Josh Allen and the Bills in front of what is sure to be a rabid home crowd. As strong as the Bills’ offense was last year, one could make the argument that this year’s is even better, particularly with the addition of veteran receiver Emmanuel Sanders. Expect Big Ben’s arm to get a workout if the Steelers can’t establish their run game against the Bills early. He’s capable of throwing for big numbers. Problem is, when the opposing offense becomes one dimensional, the Bills defense thrives. It could be a brutal slugfest between two AFC hopefuls.

DFS Player to Watch: Josh Allen | QB | $7,400 DraftKings | $8,100 FanDuel

As one of the most electrifying players to watch last year, Allen was the NFL’s highest-scoring fantasy player. He should be the star of this Steelers rematch. The Bills got the “W” in their week 14, 2020 clash with Pittsburgh, 26-15.


VIKINGS AT BENGALS — 1:00pm EST FOX

Favorite: Minnesota (-3)

Joe Burrow’s return from his MCL/ACL injury last year will be at home against Mike Zimmer’s reloaded Vikings’ defense. Needless to say this should be a tough task for Burrow and an even tougher task for the Bengals’ defense. They’re facing a formidable offense in Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen. The Bengals have slowly enhanced their roster since third-year head coach Zac Taylor took over, but they still have glaring weaknesses on both sides of the ball, which the Vikings will exploit.

DFS Player to Watch: Dalvin Cook | RB | $9,100 DraftKings | $9,400 FanDuel

The Vikings have no problem letting Cousins air it out, but Zimmer LOVES running the ball, sometimes to a fault. Look for the Vikings’ powerhouse running back to attack the Bengals’ 29th ranked rush defense all throughout the game.


49ERS AT LIONS — 1:00pm EST FOX

Favorite: San Francisco (-7.5)

The Niners suffered a nightmare 2020 season due to an unprecedented amount of injuries to their starters. It’s almost a miracle that they were able to win six games last year. This year should be different as they are not only healthy on both sides of the ball but also have a two-headed monster at QB. The Lions are finally in full rebuild mode under first-year head coach Dan Campbell. They’ll be fielding Jared Goff at QB after trading franchise stalwart Matt Stafford to the Rams. The Niners are a Super Bowl contender on paper and will look to flex their muscle on the road against former nemesis Goff and his new Motor City kneecap removers.

DFS Player to Watch: George Kittle | TE | $6,300 DraftKings | $7,000 FanDuel

Jimmy Garoppolo’s favorite target figures to be a central part of the Niners’ game plan against the Lions. Few teams are equipped to stop him from wreaking havoc.


CARDINALS AT TITANS — 1:00pm EST CBS

Favorite: Tennessee (-3)

Kyler Murray and the feisty Cardinals travel to play the relatively new powerhouse that is the Titans. While the Cardinals have added defensive stud J.J. Watt, the Titans have also added a veteran star to their roster: wideout Julio Jones.

While Murray creates headaches for opposing defenses with his legs, and DeAndre Hopkins is a top three receiver, the Titans have a weapon that all opposing defenses lose sleep over: Derrick Henry. Even if the Cardinals find a way to limit Henry, they’ll still have to deal with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. It’s a matchup made for offense lovers.

DFS Player to Watch: Derrick Henry | RB | $8,800 DraftKings | $8,900 FanDuel

In all honesty there are several viable names to put in this section (A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins), but the reality is, Henry’s size and speed are freakish. The Cardinals’ defense face Henry in his house, where he frequently delights the crowd by running roughshod over Titans’ opponents.


SEAHAWKS AT COLTS — 1:00pm EST FOX

Favorite: Indianapolis (-2.5)

Russell Wilson goes head to head with the Colts’ defense and off-season acquisition of Carson Wentz. While Wilson has plenty of weapons at his disposal, his offensive line is still a question mark. Odds are, he could be running for his life once again, thanks to the Colts’ fierce defensive line.

DFS Player to Watch: D.K. Metcalf | WR | $7,500 DraftKings | $7,700 FanDuel

With world-class speed and size, Metcalf is one of those receivers that defensive coordinators have to plan around. Look for Wilson to target him extensively.


CHARGERS AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM — 1:00pm EST CBS

Favorite: L.A. (-1)

Get the popcorn, for it’s another showdown of a dynamic QB vs. an elite defensive line. Justin Herbert was a revelation last year for both the Chargers’ organization and the NFL at large. But now teams have had a full off-season to study him on tape. Herbert will try to come out slinging against one of the most intimidating defensive lines in the league. It may not end well, particularly if Ryan Fitzpatrick elevates the Washington offense. This matchup happens only every four years, and this time both teams are on the rise.

DFS Player to Watch: Justin Herbert | QB | $6,700 DraftKings | $7,600 FanDuel

Fantasy owners are counting on Herbert (QB9) to take a big leap forward in his second year under center. It’ll be a tough task on the road against Ron Rivera’s defense, but he’ll have no choice but to keep throwing against Fitzpatrick, Gibson (RB14) and McLaurin (WR23).


JETS AT PANTHERS — 1:00pm EST CBS

Favorite: Carolina (-5.5)

The big storyline here is Sam Darnold. The 2018 3rd overall pick hosts the very team that drafted him and subsequently cast him off to Carolina, only to draft his successor Zach Wilson 2nd overall. Both teams are in the early stages of rebuilding, but the big difference is, Darnold hands off to the most dynamic fantasy back in the game: Christian McCaffrey.

DFS Player to Watch: Christian McCaffrey | RB | $9,500 DraftKings | $10,400 FanDuel

McCaffrey is the most dangerous running back in the game when healthy, and he finally is. His speed and agility in the backfield paired with his pass-catching prowess make him a threat on any down. The jets run D, while decent, is likely overmatched.


JAGUARS AT TEXANS — 1:00pm EST CBS

Favorite: Jacksonville (-3)

The Trevor Lawrence show debut this Sunday. And thanks to off-field problems with Deshaun Watson, we’ll see Lawrence vs. Tyrod Taylor in Houston this Sunday. The Texans and Jags are both in their first year of a complete tear down but divisional games are fun to watch regardless. Lawrence, this year’s first overall pick, will have plenty of targets in Jones, Shenault Jr. and Chark.

DFS Player to Watch: Trevor Lawrence | QB | $6,200 DraftKings | $6,800 FanDuel

Lawrence will be facing a defense that ranked 28th in total efficiency last year. If Urban Meyer can get him into a groove early, Lawrence could post respectable numbers against the Texans’ suspect secondary.

Sunday, Sept. 12th (Aft. Slate)


BROWNS AT CHIEFS — 4:25pm EST CBS

Favorite: K.C. (-6)

It’s a rematch of last year’s divisional round matchup between the Browns and Chiefs. The Browns matured into true contenders last year after a woeful 2019 campaign. Under Kevin Stefanski, in his first year at the helm, Baker Mayfield shook off his 2019 sophomore slump and took full advantage of the bevy of talented weapons at his disposal. On the other side of the field Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will look to avoid the dreaded Super Bowl hangover. They’ll try to begin their road back to the big game with a home win over a legitimate contender in the AFC. Arrowhead stadium’s crowd noise make it notoriously inhospitable, but if any team is talented and hungry enough to pull out an upset, it’s Mayfield’s Browns.

DFS Player to Watch: Patrick Mahomes | QB | $8,100 DraftKings | $8,800 FanDuel

The number of blue-chip fantasy players that will be active for this game are almost too many to list: Nick Chubb, Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Baker Mayfield…the list could go on. At the end of the day it’s almost impossible to pick anyone other than Mahomes. He’s been a consistent producer for fantasy owners since he became the starter in 2018. He should keep his numbers going despite a formidable Browns defense.


DOLPHINS AT PATRIOTS — 4:25pm EST CBS

Favorite: Miami (-3)

The Dolphins/Patriots rivalry gets more interesting this year. This AFC East division game will serve as what could be the first of many Mac vs. Tua showdowns. For the uninitiated, Mac Jones served as Tua Tagovailoa’s backup when they both played for Nick Saban at Alabama. Funny how things work out in the drama that is sports.

Brian Flores, a former assistant coach of Belichick, will seek to start the season off on the right foot in a stadium that has traditionally been hard to win in. The Pats have won no less than 10 of 11 home games against the ‘Fins since 2010.

DFS Player to Watch: Jaylen Waddle | WR | $3,600 DraftKings | $5,200 FanDuel

Waddle was the sixth overall pick this year. In addition to being a dynamic young receiver, he also has a vibe with Tua from their days together at Alabama. That history and chemistry should amount to a big debut for the rookie receiver, even against a Belichick defense.


PACKERS AT SAINTS — 4:25pm EST FOX

Favorite: Green Bay (-3)

Due to Hurricane Ida, the Saints will play their home opener versus the Packers at TIAA stadium in Jacksonville, FL. The Saints open the season with Jameis Winston as their starting QB, the first time without Drew Brees in fifteen years. Both teams usually struggle in hot weather, but this could be a high scoring contest. Fantasy owners of Alvin Kamara, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Aaron Jones should expect dividends.

DFS Player to Watch: Alvin Kamara | RB | $8,600 DraftKings | $8,600 FanDuel

With Drew Brees officially out of the picture, Sean Payton could feed Kamara early and often and gradually work Winston’s throws into the game. And lest we forget, Kamara had the most receiving targets per game in 2020. What’s more, the Packers’ run defense remains vulnerable. The Saints top 10 offensive line should give Kamara all the openings he needs.


BRONCOS AT GIANTS 4:25pm EST FOX

Favorite: Denver (-3)

Teddy Bridgewater has earned the home start for the Broncos. He’ll look to impress the Mile High faithful against an underwhelming Daniel Jones. Among QBs, Jones was a pitiful 32nd in fantasy points per game in 2020. He checks very few boxes in our criteria for the best DFS quarterbacks.

Meanwhile, while the G-Men bolstered their defense in the off-season, their offensive line still has plenty of holes. The Bronco’s Vic Fangio, one of the top defensive-minded coaches in the league, will exploit those holes.

DFS Player to Watch: Saquon Barkley | RB | $7,800 DraftKings | $8,500 FanDuel

The Giants will cautiously ease him back into game action this Sunday. For a guy who tore his ACL and hasn’t played since week 2 of last year, however, his $7,800 (DraftKings) price tag isn’t cheap. That said, Barkley figures to get enough carries to lighten the load on Jones. And the Giants need him to perform, given their O-line should continually leak defenders into the pocket. Special bonus: Rumors of Barkley being on a snap count should limit his ownership.

Sunday, Sept. 12th (Late Slate)

BEARS AT RAMS 8:20pm EST NBC

Favorite: L.A. (-7.5)

The Rams will welcome the Bears into their glorious new stadium in front of a national audience. Andy Dalton gets the start over rookie Justin Fields, as LA welcomes former Lion Matt Stafford behind center. Look for the top-ranked Rams defense to harass Dalton, who’s trying to adjust to a new system behind an unproven pass blocking unit.

DFS Player to Watch: Matt Stafford | QB | $6,200 DraftKings | $7,400 FanDuel

Losing Cam Akers, the Ram’s heart and soul offensively, is a huge blow. But Stafford still has more than enough talent around him to put up 300+ yards, including Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. Stafford has received more hype than almost any other player this off-season. That kind of national spotlight is all new to him. He’ll either use it to fuel productive confidence, or buckle under the pressure.

Monday, Sept. 13th

RAVENS AT RAIDERS — 8:15pm EST ESPN

Favorite: Baltimore (-4.5)

Just like the Rams, the Raiders are welcoming fans to their first regular season game inside their state-of-the-art new stadium. The “Death Star,” as it’s come to be known, will be jam packed with Raider Nation enthusiasts. The problem for them is, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are coming to town. The Raiders ranked 30th in total defense last year and have added no significant pieces to address it. Combine that with a Ravens team that features the most dangerous mobile QB in the game, and it could be a dismal opener for the black and silver.

DFS Player to Watch: Lamar Jackson | QB | $7,700 DraftKings | $8,600 FanDuel

Lamar Jackson has been a fantasy machine since taking the league by storm during his 2019 MVP season. He continues to be a top 10 fantasy point leader with his legs and his arm. The Monday night limelight and a porous opposing defence should be all he needs to exceed projections.


About the Author: Steven A. Cravens has been a professional sports better and analyst for over a decade. As a former Fox Sports NFL researcher and data logger, he specialized in player profiling and performance statistics.

Leave a Reply

This site uses User Verification plugin to reduce spam. See how your comment data is processed.