NFL DFS predictions post here every Wednesday evening, including projected outcomes and players to watch for every matchup, every week. (We respond to all reader comments so jot them below.)
Thursday, Sept. 30th
JAGUARS (0-3) AT BENGALS (2-1) — 8:20pm ET NFLN
Favorite: Cincinnati (-7.5) O/U: 45.5
The battle between the 2020 and 2021 first overall picks kicks off week 4 on Thursday night football. Trevor Lawrence and the Jags will struggle for their first win of the season against a surprising Burrow-led squad. The Bengals are in year three of their rebuild and the Jags are only 4 games into theirs. The Bengals, meanwhile, have clawed their way to a 2-1 start. And they did it with impressive wins over the Vikings and Steelers. Cincinnati is playing at home, its defense is top 5 in fantasy points and Jacksonville has just about the worst pass rush in the league. Say no more.
DFS Player to Watch: Joe Burrow | QB | $5,900 DraftKings | $7,200 FanDuel
Joe Burrow has 640 passing yards, 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions through the Bengals’ first 3 games. While his worst game of the season came against the Bears defense during week 2, he bounced back bigtime against the Steelers with three TDs last week. The Jags defense (DST22) is a work in progress so look for Burrow to exploit their weaknesses and feed both a red hot Ja’Marr Chase and a reliable Tyler Boyd.
Sunday, Oct. 3rd (Early SlateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... More)
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (1-2) AT FALCONS (1-2) — 1:00pm ET FOX
Favorite: Washington (-1) O/U: 48
The Falcons finally notched their first win against an abysmal Giants team that continues to trend downward. Washington had the unfortunate task of playing the Bills on the road last week. The 43-21 final score reflects just how outclassed they were. This matchup is a lot closer. The Falcons have Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts, and Washington has coughed up the most DK points to QBs this year. Meanwhile, Washington’s underachieving defense (DST 32) must penetrate the Falcons’ porous o-line to come out on top. This portends to be one of the tighter contests of the weekend.
DFS Player to Watch: Taylor Heinicke | QB | $5,900 DraftKings | $7,400 FanDuel
Taylor Heinicke’s stock came falling back to earth after his 2 TD/2 INT performance against the Bills last week. Clearly he won’t be carrying this team to the playoffs on his shoulders. Nonetheless, this matchup is a prime chance for him to rebound, as he’ll have to throw to keep up, given the points Washington may give up. WFT’s pass blocking is solid and as long as its line gives Heinicke time, he should give fantasy owners sufficient value against a bottom-5 defense.
TEXANS (1-2) AT BILLS (2-1) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: Buffalo (-16.5) O/U: 47
Josh Allen (QB7) and the Bills must be licking their chops. This one is being billed as one of the biggest mismatches of the year. The Texans are woefully outmatched on both sides of the ball to the point where not getting blown out by double digits would be considered a victory in itself. The Bills should take control of this game early and never let up.
DFS Player to Watch: Emmanuel Sanders | WR | $4,900 DraftKings | $5,800 FanDuel
Emmanuel Sanders has been tremendous for the Bills thus far (194 yards, 2 TDs). Yet, he remains undervalued thank to Stefon Diggs being Josh Allen’s number one target. Look for Sanders to get plenty of action against the Texans’ below-average secondary.
LIONS (0-3) AT BEARS (1-2) — 1:00pm ET FOX
Favorite: Chicago (-3) O/U: 42.5
The Lions would’ve beat the Ravens had it not been for a blown call and a record 66-yard field. They held tough against a Ravens team that many consider vastly superior on paper. The Bears, on the other hand, got thoroughly outclassed by the Browns. Justin Fields was a human piñata, getting sacked nine times. Fields was held to one (yes, one) net yard passing due to Fields being sacked for 67 yards. That’s almost impossibly bad. We know the Lions will show up and give their all. Dan Campbell and his coaching staff will make sure of it. Moreover, the Bears look completely lost offensively. This could be a key turning point for both teams and set their pace for the rest of the season. Bears head coach Matt Nagy told the media that he hasn’t made a decision on who his starting QB will be for week 4. Fields, Dalton and Foles are all in the running. What a mess.
DFS Player to Watch: T.J. Hockenson | TE | $5,800 DraftKings | $6,600 FanDuel
T.J. Hockenson (TE 3) has turned out to be Goff’s most reliable and explosive threat. With no other brand name receivers on this team, Hockenson will continue producing for fantasy owners against a lousy Bears defense.
PANTHERS (3-0) AT COWBOYS (2-1) — 1:00pm ET FOX
Favorite: Dallas (-4.5) O/U: 50.5
Dak Prescott and Sam Darnold have their teams on a tear. This matchup could come down to one man’s health, or lack thereof, and that man is Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey suffered a hamstring injury against the Texans on Thursday night football and he remains doubtful for Sunday’s game. Darnold and the Panthers could be in for a long day against an opportunistic Cowboys defense that’s scored the 6th most fantasy points this year. Carolina top overall defense may finally crack this week.
DFS Player to Watch: Dak Prescott | QB| $6,700 DraftKings | $7,700 FanDuel
Dak Prescott has thrown three TDs in 2 of 3 games since his return from injury. That’s despite a forgettable performance against the Chargers in week 2. This is a surmountable matchup for him at home, against a tough Panthers defense, but one plagued by a few key injuries.
COLTS (0-3) AT DOLPHINS (1-2) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: Miami (-2) O/U: 42.5
The Colts are sitting at 0-3 and the Dolphins are sitting at 1-2 after a heartbreaker to the Raiders in OT. Both the Colts and Dolphins are dealing with the injury bug, but the difference is that Indy has their starting QB. Miami does not. If the fins defense can’t get to Wentz early then both teams could emerge from this matchup with 1-3 records.
DFS Player to Watch: Jaylen Waddle | WR | $4,900 DraftKings | $5,400 FanDuel
Jaylen Waddle will get ample attention from the Colts’ corners and safeties but Brissett will target him all the same. Despite Waddle being a rookie, he’s emerged as a legit threat for the Dolphins. He’s been productive even with an injured Tua on the sidelines. Oh, and Indy’s coverage unit has more holes than a spaghetti strainer.
BROWNS (2-1) AT VIKINGS (1-2) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: Cleveland (-2) O/U: 51.5
Cleveland and Minnesota are both coming off home victories against the Bears and Seahawks, respectively, But they went about it in completely different ways. The Browns were able to win with the strength of their pass rush while the Vikings put on an offensive show, particularly Kirk Cousins. The question is, which will take the day: defense or offense? The Vikings have their powerful home field advantage on their side, but Cousins will have to continue to play lights out and get the ball out quickly. The Browns pass rush is starting to hit its stride with Jadeveon Clowney and Myles Garrett coming off the edges. This one could be a highly charged passfest.
DFS Player to Watch: Kirk Cousins | QB | $6,400 DraftKings | $7,500 FanDuel
Kirk Cousins has scored 25+ fantasy points in every game this year, with no INTs. He was our choice last week and there’s no reason to ignore him this week. The man has thrown for 918 yards and 8 touchdowns in only three games. He’s playing at an all-time high, and he’s at home in the deafening dome.
GIANTS (0-3) AT SAINTS (2-1) — 1:00pm ET FOX
Favorite: New Orleans (-7.5) O/U: 42
The Saints finally return to the Superdome for the first time this season after Hurricane Ida. The 0-3 Giants have the thankless task of trying to upend the Saints in front of a raucous crowd of “who datters.” The Saints defense put the hurt on Mac Jones and the Pats on Sunday. They’ll look to make Daniel Jones’ life equally miserable. The Saints need consistency from Jameis, however. He had another uneven game against the Patriots, but this Giants defense should prove a perfect opportunity to master Sean Payton’s complex offense.
DFS Player to Watch: Alvin Kamara | RB | $8,400 DraftKings | $9,000 FanDuel
The Giants mediocre pass defense aside, the Saints passing attack is feeble. Hence, we turn our attention to Kamara, a man they’re relying on heavily against the subpar Giants run-D. And yes, his price is rich, but for a reason.
TITANS (2-1) AT JETS (0-3) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: Tennessee (-7) O/U: 45
The Titans have won two straight games against the Seahawks and Colts. They’ll look to build on that against the 0-3 Jets, who might make a solid CFL team. The Titans mediocre defense still has plenty of question marks, but they should have no problem getting after Zac Wilson. Texans vs Bills is still the leading contender for biggest mismatch of the weekend, but this game is a strong second.
DFS Player to Watch: Chester Rogers | WR | $3,300 DraftKings | $5,100 FanDuel
Tannehill could be without his two top receivers this weekend. For $3,300 on DK, Rogers is worth a roll of the dice. (Westbrook-Ikhine is an alternative.) If Rogers can’t go at least 3.5x his salary against the Jets, something’s wrong.
CHIEFS (1-2) AT EAGLES (1-2) — 1:00pm ET CBS
Favorite: Kansas City (-7) O/U: 54.5
The Eagles are coming off an injury-riddled beatdown to the Cowboys. They face a Chiefs team that’s below .500 in September for the first time since 2015. While playing at home usually is an advantage in the NFL, it probably won’t help Philly against a Chiefs squad that’s hungrier than ever. Philly’s best chance at staying in this game is by taking advantage of the Chiefs’ suspect secondary and extend drives as long as possible.
DFS Player to Watch: Clyde Edwards-Helaire | RB | $5,400 DraftKings | $6,700 FanDuel
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has run for 189 yards this season but hasn’t found the end zone yet. With Philly’s defensive line being banged up and vulnerable, Andy Reid may call Clyde’s number in red zone situations.
Sunday, Oct. 3rd (Aft. SlateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... More)
CARDINALS (3-0) AT RAMS (3-0) — 4:05pm ET FOX
Favorite: Los Angeles (-4.5) O/U: 55
The first NFC West matchup of the year features the 3-0 Cardinals vs the 3-0 Rams. After this game there will be one undefeated team left in the NFL’s toughest division. Both teams are balanced and feature two dynamic quarterbacks that can make defenses look bad. What separates the two teams? Coaching. Sean McVay has proven to be the best coach in the division. What he’s been able to do with Stafford this year has been dazzling. Kingsbury still has questionable play calls and poor clock management. Both could be a factor against arguably the top team in the NFC.
DFS Player to Watch: Cooper Kupp | WR | $7,800 DraftKings | $8,600 FanDuel
The Cards are vulnerable to the run, which could open things up yet again for Cooper Kupp. Kupp has been Stafford’s favorite target through three weeks, and coming out of the slot he’ll no doubt remain a difference maker as Stafford battles a high-caliber pass rush.
SEAHAWKS (1-2) AT 49ERS (2-1) — 4:05pm ET FOX
Favorite: San Francisco (-3) O/U: 52
The 49ers suffered a brutal home loss to the Packers on a last-second field goal, dropping them to 2-1 on the season. The Seahawks were outclassed by the Vikings on the road dropping them to 1-2. While both teams are suffering from similar issues in their secondaries, their offenses are also dealing with injuries and inconsistencies of their own—most notably in their running games. This matchup should come down to which QB takes greater advantage of the opposing defense’s secondary. In that case the edge goes to Wilson. His ability to throw deep downfield to Lockett and Metcalf is a huge edge. By contrast, Jimmy Garoppolo has ranked dead last in passes beyond 20 yards through the first three weeks of the season. Fun fact: since Levi’s stadium opened in 2014, the 49ers have only beaten Wilson and the Seahawks once.
DFS Player to Watch: Tyler Lockett | WR | $7,100 DraftKings | $7,900 FanDuel
Lockett keeps opposing defensive coordinators awake at night. With the 49ers’ cornerback room being as barren as a moon crater, it’s almost a given that Russ is going to find Lockett often. Exploit that mismatch.
STEELERS (1-2) AT PACKERS (2-1) — 4:25pm ET CBS
Favorite: Green Bay (-6.5) O/U: 45.5
The Steelers are 1-2 and inundated with injuries. The main question, however, is how much Big Ben has left in the tank. How much more will his pectoral issue hold him back given he’s already having trouble passing for distance? As for the Packers, they’re flying high after toppling the Niners on the road. They’ll seek to take advantage of a limping Steelers team that continues to fade in the standings amid injuries, a battered QB and lack of execution offensively.
DFS Player to Watch: Aaron Jones | RB | $7,700 DraftKings | $7,400 FanDuel
The Pack will likely be playing with a lead most of the game. That game flowGame flow refers to how a game is expected to unfold. If a team gains a big lead, for example, the flow of the game will generally see more rushing and less passing, and vice versa. Understanding potential game flow is essential if you want to draft the best value players. And it... More suggests that Aaron Jones should get bonus carries in the second half, on top of at least 4 targets.
RAVENS (2-1) AT BRONCOS (3-0) — 4:25pm ET CBS
Favorite: Denver (-1) O/U: 45
The Ravens survived a thriller against the Lions with the longest field goal ever made in the NFL. Their task is considerably more challenging this week as they face the 3-0 Broncos. Denver’s defense is firing on all cylinders. It’s one of only four D-units that have averaged 10+ fantasy points per game. Moreover, its QB Bridgewater has shown no signs of slowing down. Add in the fact that Mile High stadium is an altitude struggle for visiting teams and there’s a tall task ahead for John Harbaugh’s gang.
DFS Player to Watch: Tim Patrick | WR | $4,900 DraftKings | $6,100 FanDuel
Tim Patrick is one of the more underrated receivers in the AFC from a production standpoint. Through the first three weeks he and Bridgewater have connected for 174 yards and 2 touchdowns. There’s little reason to believe that productivity can’t continue this week.
Sunday, Sept. 26th (Late SlateA slate is a list of games, typically starting around the same time of day. The most popular NFL slate in DFS is the "Main" slate, which usually has 10 or more games in the regular season. This is an example of DraftKing's main slate for NFL Some slates includes as few as one gam... More)
BUCCANEERS (2-1) AT PATRIOTS (1-2) — 8:20pm ET NBC
Favorite: Tampa Bay (-6.5) O/U: 49
This is it. The return of Tom Brady to Gillette stadium. The media has been salivating over this matchup since the NFL schedule was announced. The prodigal son returns to where he earned six titles. He plays against the man that many believed shoved him out the back door prematurely. There’s no telling how much longer Brady will play but the next time the Bucs would face the Pats is in 2025. This could be the first and last time Brady squares off against both the Pats and Belichick. After suffering a 34-24 loss to the Bucs on Sunday, you can bet Brady and the Bucs will be foaming at the mouth to beat a 1-2 team whose defense has lost a few steps.
DFS Player to Watch: Chris Godwin | WR | $6,300 DraftKings | $7,500 FanDuel
Chris Godwin has seen a bulk of targets from Brady and that connection should persist amid questions about Antonio Brown’s availability, and given Scotty Miller was just placed on IR.
Monday, Oct. 4th
RAIDERS (3-0) AT CHARGERS (2-1) — 8:15pm ET ESPN
Favorite: Las Angeles (-3.5) O/U: 52.5
The wild, wild AFC west gets a marquee divisional game between the 3-0 Raiders and the 2-1 Chargers. For those of you who took the first three weeks off, Justin Herbert and Derek Carr are playing the best football of their careers. Herbert is coming off a monster performance (26-38, 281 yards and 4 TDs) on the road against the Chiefs. It’s only week 4 but this is the kind of matchup that can alter divisional standings come January. A loss for either team could be the difference between winning the division or being out of the playoffs entirely. Get ready for a PVR-worthy masterpiece on Monday Night Football.
DFS Player to Watch: Mike Williams | WR | $7,200 DraftKings | $7,800 FanDuel
We got back to stud Mike Williams. The rapport he and Herbert have together has been a treat to watch. If you need reliable floor points this week, Williams is your guy.
About the Author: Steven A. Cravens has been a professional sports better and analyst for over a decade. As a former Fox Sports NFL researcher and data logger, he specialized in player profiling and performance statistics.
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all fantasy stats are based on point per reception (PPRPoint per reception This is a DFS scoring system that awards offensive players (e.g., WR, RB and TE) one point for each reception. This is the standard scoring method of DraftKings. More) scoring.
