Week 18 NFL DFS I “Under the Radar” Player Values

The Marquee Matchups for January 8, 2023:

  • Rams (5-11) at Seahawks (8-8) — Geno Smith will look to wrap up his career year with a win in Seattle. If he pulls it out and the Lions win, the Seahawks will own the last NFC Wildcard berth.
  • Lions (8-8) at Packers (8-8) — If the Packers win they’re in no matter what happens in Seattle, while the Lions still have a chance at the postseason if the Seahawks falter.
  • Jets (7-9) at Dolphins (8-8) — With multiple QB injuries for Miami, the Jets will try to play spoiler against their AFC East Division rival.

Biggest totals in week 18’s Sunday matchups:

There are no high scoring affairs predicted for Sunday’s games. Here are the four contests with the most scoring potential, based on the Vegas consensus.






Early Slate



O 43




U 43




O 42.5




U 42.5


Afternoon Slate



O 43




U 43




O 41.5




U 41.5


Under The Radar DFS Players

Below are bargain bin options for the NFL’s 18th week. (See methodology below)

Early Slate Value Plays




T.J. Hockenson |  TE, MIN


Has seen 28 targets and 20 receptions over last two games. CHI D ranks 25th in FPs allowed overall. This game features one of the highest O/U's of all games in the early slate.

Najee Harris |  RB, PIT


CLE D ranks 29th in FPs allowed to RBs. Averaging 2.5 Red Zone opportunities per game over last seven games. Pittsburgh is still in the playoff hunt so there is little risk of Harris being benched.

Jakobi Meyers |  WR, NE


BUF D ranks 23rd in FPs allowed to WRs. Has averaged a target share of 22.6% per game on season and leads team in both reception yards, reception TDs and targets.

Afternoon Slate Value Plays




Tyler Higbee I TE, LAR


SEA D ranks 32nd in FPs allowed to TEs. Higbee has scored three touchdowns over his last three games. Projected to lead Rams pass catchers in opportunities.

George Kittle I TE, SF


Has scored five touchdowns in last three games. ARI D ranks 31st in FPs allowed to TEs. Averaging 18.8 FPs per game over last four games.

Ezekiel Elliott |  RB, DAL


Has scored at least one touchdown in each of last nine games. At least 15 FPs in seven of last nine games with a floor of 9.7 FPs.

How this works

Every week, we analyze three “under the radar” NFL DFS values from the early and afternoon slates on DraftKings. The goal being, to find players with more than a 40% chance of scoring four times their salary. That means a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)] x 4.

Among other things, we factor in:

  1. Only DraftKings players with salaries of $6,900 or less
  2. Team matchups
  3. Whether projected opportunities are sufficient to return 4x DFS value
  4. The week 18 NFL injury report for fantasy players.

Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s vital for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently.