The Marquee Matchups for January 29, 2023:
- 49ers (15-4) at Eagles (15-3) — Jalen Hurts and the Eagles blasted through the Giants, earning themselves the opportunity to host the red hot 49ers. San Francisco is coming in with a 12 game winning streak.
- Bengals (14-4) at Chiefs (15-3) — The two most recent AFC Champions will fight to represent their conference once more. Joe Burrow’s Bengals head to KC to face Pat Mahomes and company, for what should be a frenetic scoring fest.
(Records shown include playoff games)
Vegas odds for the Conference Championship Round matchups:
Here are the two Conference Championship contests and their Vegas lines.
Slate | Team | Spread | O/U | Line |
Conference Championship Slate | CIN | -1.5 | O 46.5 | -130 |
@ KC | +1.5 | U 46.5 | +110 | |
SF | +2.5 | O 46 | +125 | |
@ PHI | -2.5 | U 46 | -145 |
Under The Radar DFS Players
Below are potential bargain bin options from the Conference Championship Round. (See methodology below)
NFC Championship Game Value Plays
Player | Salary | Reasoning |
Dallas Goedert | TE, PHI | $4,100 | Has seen a target percentage of 19% over last four games. Averaging 10.1 FPs over last four games with only one game under 9.7 points over last seven games. Has seen 18 targets over last three games. |
Elijah Mitchell | RB, SF | $4,900 | Averaging 10.5 opportunities and 2 red zone opportunities per game over last four games. PHI D ranks 17th in NFL in FPs allowed to RBs. |
George Kittle | TE, SF | $5,200 | Leads all tight ends in receiving yards this postseason with 132 yards. Target percentage of 20% over last four games while averaging 5.5 opportunities. Only one game under 12.3 FPs over last six games. |
AFC Championship Game Value Plays
Player | Salary | Reasoning |
Kenneth Gainwell I RB, PHI | $5,000 | Averaging 10 opportunities per game over last four games and received more carries than Miles Sanders in NFC Championship game, including three red zone opportunities. Had 14 carries and three targets in NFC Championship game. Has scored 31.5 FPs in two postseason games. |
Dallas Goedert I TE, PHI | $6,400 | KC D ranks 23rd in FPs allowed to TEs. Averaging six targets per game over last four games with a target percentage of 20%. |
Boston Scott I | $3,000 | Has scored a touchdown in each of the last three games. Averaging 9.6 FPs per game over last three games with a floor of 8.1 FPs. |
How this works
Every week, we analyze three “under the radar” NFL DFS values from the early and afternoon slates on DraftKings. The goal being, to find players with more than a 40% chance of scoring four times their salary. That means a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)] x 4.
Among other things, we factor in:
- Only DraftKings players with salaries of $6,900 or less
- Team matchups
- Whether projected opportunities are sufficient to return 4x DFS value
- The Conference Championship Round NFL injury report for fantasy players.
Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s vital for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently.
