TD Cost is the implied cost of a touchdown based on the player’s salary and TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). line.
TD Cost = Salary / Probability of a touchdown
This shows what you’d have to pay for the player if you wanted a guaranteed touchdown from him, based on his probability of scoring and his current salary. Lower numbers are better.
Note: A touchdown here refers only to a rushing or receiving touchdown. This field has no relation to passing touchdowns.
A “TD PropA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). line” (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game.
The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). line (moneyline).
TD Cost is the implied cost of a touchdown based on the player’s salary and the player’s TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). line.
This field shows what you’d have to pay for the player (in salary) if you wanted a guaranteed touchdown from him, based on his probability of scoring and his current salary. Lower numbers are better.
A touchdown here refers only to a rushing or receiving touchdown. This field has no relation to passing touchdowns.
TD Cost = Salary / Probability of a touchdown
Here’s a quick example:
In the below screenshot of the Player List we have the [TDCostTD Cost is the implied cost of a touchdown based on the player's salary and the player's TD prop line. This field shows what you'd have to pay for the player (in salary) if you wanted a guaranteed touchdown from him, based on his probability of scoring and his current salary. Low...] field displayed.
In the case of David Montgomery, his -213 prop line translates into a 68.05% probability of scoring a TD.
Therefore, we simply take his $6.6k salary and divide by .6805 to get his TDCostTD Cost is the implied cost of a touchdown based on the player's salary and the player's TD prop line. This field shows what you'd have to pay for the player (in salary) if you wanted a guaranteed touchdown from him, based on his probability of scoring and his current salary. Low... of $9.70.
In other words, the fair value of David Montgomery would be $9.7k ($9,700 salary) — based on Vegas odds — if he were guaranteed to score a rushing or receiving TD.
Note: This field does not account for vig in it’s probabilities, but all players use the same formula so they are nonetheless comparable.
What is a trap gameWhat is a trap game? It's a game where a heavy favorite underestimates and under-prepares for a supposedly lesser opponent. That opponent is motivated to play hard (maybe it's a prime time game on National TV) and they exploit a few key matchup advantages to come away with the up...? It’s a game where a heavy favorite underestimates and under-prepares for a supposedly lesser opponent. That opponent is motivated to play hard (maybe it’s a prime time game on National TV) and they exploit a few key matchup advantages to come away with the upset.
