Week 3 has arrived and it starts with what’s projected to be a low-scoring affair in Cleveland. The Browns will be playing with fury after having blown a 13-point lead to the Jets Sunday, in the last 1:55 of the game no less.
The action gets better on Sunday with the headliners being Buffalo at Miami and Green Bay at Tampa.
As always, we start the week with our “under the radar” pick for Thursday night.
How this works
To help you unearth player values, we turn to DFS Hub analyst Steve Cravens who assesses one “under the radar” player from each game, each week.
The criteria:
- All players must be $6,900 or less on DraftKings.
- The player must have the potential and projected opportunities to go 4x NFL DFS value.
The mission is finding players with more than a 50% chance of scoring four times their salary. In other words, a DraftKings fantasy point performance greater than [Sal($k)]A DFS Hub field that equals a player's salary divided by $1,000. $4.8 [Sal($k)] equals $4,800, for example. It's a short form of salary to make comparing salaries easier. x 4.
Uncovering players who blow up for 4x value isn’t easy, but it’s a must-do for anyone hoping to win tournaments consistently. So without further delay, below are Steve’s calls for week 3.
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| | | | | Averaging 12.5 DraftKings points through two games, Trubisky isn't setting anyone's hair on fire. But neither is the Browns' secondary, which is graded bottom-third by PFF. On top of that, Cleveland's pass rush is dented by injuries to Jadeveon Clowney (ankle) and Myles Garrett (neck). Trubisky is tied for cheapest QB on the board this week, but he's got three reasonably talented receivers plus Freiermuth. So a breakout 20+ point performance is not out of the question—especially with the crowd starting to chant Kenny Pickett's name. |
| | | | | Montgomery had a solid fantasy outing last week with 18.6 points. The Bears will likely try to get him more involved in the run game against the Texans due to his success in Green Bay. Montgomery is also an occasional threat in the passing game. His matchup looks favorable with PFF grading Houston's run defense worst in the league. |
| | | | | Waller has averaged 14.5 fantasy points through two weeks, including a touchdown last week against the Cardinals. Waller has a solid connection with Carr and with Adams and Renfrow receiving so much attention, that creates extra opportunities for Waller. And lest we forget that the Titans secondary was dismantled last week by the Bills. |
| | | | | Helaire was our pick for last week and we're sticking with him in this matchup. For one, the Colts defense is banged up and was gashed by the Jags' run and pass game last week. Second, Helaire is a dual threat in both categories. While his rushing attempts are below average for a starter, he ran for over 9 yards a carry against the Chargers last week, notes RotoBaller. Finally, Helaire has averaged 19.1 fantasy points so far. His production figures to stay steady or increase due to his continued emergence in the Chiefs' offense. |
| | | | | Tua had himself a career game last week in the Dolphins' thrilling comeback win over the Ravens: 469 yards, 6 TDs and 2 INTs and 43.9 fantasy points. The Dolphins now face off against the vaunted Buffalo Bills. This game may come down to a shootout as each club's defense is strong against running backs. Tua could be in for another impressive afternoon as Drake Jackson, Ed Oliver and Micah Hyde have been ruled out from the Bills' defense. Buffalo's pass defense will be that much more exposed against the Dolphins' dangerous passing attack. |
| | | | | The Lions' offense through two weeks has proven to be dynamic and explosive and its lead by none other than Jared Goff. Goff has averaged 235 yards and 3 TDs through two weeks and that kind of production should continue against a Vikings secondary — one that was exposed last week by the Eagles' aerial attack. Goff's connection with his receivers, notably St. Brown, makes him a potentially high-value pick for this NFC North battle. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, Detroit's defense has allowed the 2nd most points per game. That should force even more throws from Goff. |
| | | | | Bateman has averaged 18.85 points a game over the last two contests thanks to his growing rapport with Lamar Jackson and his emergence as Baltimore's number one receiver. The Patriots' pass defense will make it tough on Bateman but he has the speed and elusivity to evade the Pats' corners for potentially big gains. |
| | | | | Higgins got off to a slow start against Pittsburgh but rebounded nicely with 19.1 fantasy points versus the Cowboys. Higgins' big day against Dallas could justify more targets against the Jets weak secondary. It won't hurt to have Joe Mixon drawing the Jets' attention and Ja'Marr Chase likely getting double covered. |
| | | | | Carson Wentz has averaged 32.25 fantasy points through the first two weeks. He now faces an Eagles defense that has proven both incredibly effective against the run, and susceptible to chunk plays through the air. Wentz could be up for another rich fantasy outing as the Commanders try to pass early and often to keep pace with Philly's high-octane offense. |
| | | | | Michael Thomas has averaged 20.6 fantasy points and 1.5 touchdowns through two games. He is Winston's top target and figures to get plenty of receptions against the Panthers, especially in the red zone. Moreover, Thomas isn't just lining up in the slot anymore. He's being used all over the line of scrimmage by new head coach Dennis Allen. That's made him even more dangerous to opposing defenses. |
| | | | | Lawrence is due for a sophomore bounce, and that may be what we're seeing. In week 2 he had an uptick in fantasy performance, posting 18.5 points against the Colts versus 14.4 against the Commanders. The Chargers' defense is one of the best in the league but Lawrence should still have a healthy day passing as L.A. tries to neutralize James Robinson's run game. The Chargers will force Lawrence to beat them with his arm and as a home dog, he'll have no choice but to try. |
| | | | | Stafford rebounded in week 2 after an abysmal opener against the Bills. He could easily have a 300-yard game against a Cardinals' secondary graded worst in the NFL. Interceptions have been a concern with Stafford averaging 2.5 a game this year, but he's still one of the best fantasy producers around with All-Pro Kupp, an awakened Robinson and a great outlet in Higbee. |
| | | | | Patterson had miserable output last week with only 4.1 points. Then again, the Falcons fell into a deep hole early and turned to Mariota's arm instead of Patterson's legs. This week the Falcons take on the Seahawks' middling run defense. Patterson should be a focal point of the gameplan with the Seahawks giving up 189 yards rushing to the 49ers last week. Patterson is faster and more elusive than any RB on the Niners' roster and will pose a legit threat to the Seahawks' front seven. |
| | | | | Fournette is certainly a pricey option for this matchup, but considering the Bucs' injuries and suspension woes on offense, he's worth the risk. That's especially true with the Packers allowing over 100 yards rushing per game to start the season. Add that to the fact that Fournette will likely see time at receiver as well — due to the Buc's lack of depth at the position.
Note: Lenny has reported a strained hamstring but according to SportsMedAnalytics, three limited practices in a row and the fact he hasn't re-aggravated the hamstring make him worth playing. But check DFS Hub's NFL injury report right before gametime to see if there's been any changes. |
| | | | | Denver isn't easy to run against but Jeff Wilson is worth his $5300 salary, and then some. The 49ers running back room has suffered major losses. Wilson is now the de-facto starter on full throttle rushing offense. As far as running backs under $5,500 go, Wilson may have the highest value on the board given the amount of usage he'll see. Expect over 18 touches this week. |
| | | | | Pollard had 18 fantasy points last week which is 8 more than Zeke has had through two weeks. Pollard should continue getting more first down reps as he slowly but surely takes more and more playing time from Zeke. With Cooper Rush still under center, expect Pollard to get ample touches this week against the Giants' bottom third run defense. |
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Tune in weekly for DFS Hub’s exclusive “Under the Radar” NFL player analysis by veteran NFL analyst Steven Cravens.
Photo credit: Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire
