Category: NFL DFS Picks

The NFL divisional round is in full swing, with the top-seeded teams making their postseason debut. The weekend’s highlights include the Detroit Lions hosting a playoff game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the much-anticipated rematch between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. With only eight teams remaining in the fight for the NFL’s biggest prize, the stakes are high and the excitement is palpable. Let’s sift through the DFS gold mine of the Divisional Round, while trying not to step on any fantasy landmines.

​​

2 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

1. Green Bay Packers (+9.5) at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)– O/U 50.5
   • Following a three-touchdown performance in the Wild Card Round, Jordan Love has 12 TDs during Green Bay’s four-game winning streak.
   • MVP candidate Christian McCaffrey gets a juicy matchup against a bottom-ten D in fantasy points allowed.
   • Aaron Jones has rushed for at least 110 yards in each of his last four games.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) at Detroit Lions (-6.0) – O/U 48.5
   • Detroit QB Jared Goff has thrown an INT in only two of his last eight games.
   • The Buccs are ranked 29th in the NFL in FPsFantasy points allowed to tight ends which bodes well for Detroit rookie Sam LaPorta.
   • Tampa’s wide receivers will look to feast on a Detroit D allowing a median 61.1 fantasy points to WRs in the last four games.

​​

Rebound Plays:  3 stars coming off one or more dud performances, with strong matchups

1. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $7,200
   • The veteran wideout has scored 10 FPs or less in the last three weeks but faces a Detroit D ranked 30th in fantasy points allowed to WRs.
   • Despite just 70 yards combined in his last two games, Evans has still seen 15 targets.
   • With a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. of 61.1 FPs, there’ll be plenty of opportunities to go around for Evans and the other Tampa Bay receivers.
2. Devin Singletary, RB, Houston Texans, $5,700
   • Singletary hasn’t eclipsed 100 yards in a game since Week 15 but has scored a TD in back-to-back games.
   • The Ravens have been kind to opposing backs recently, with a DvPL4 33.0 FPs.
   • Houston’s starting running back has a median snap share of 67% over the last four games.
3. George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers, $5,200
   • Kittle has been boom or bust in his last four games, but should lean more towards the boom against a Green Bay D ranked 26th in FPs allowed to TEs.
   • Despite a 29-yard dud in Week 18, Kittle is still averaging over 71 yards per game during the last four weeks.
   • The Packers DvPL4 of 15.8 FPs against tight ends is the best matchup Kittle has faced all season.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF, $8,800
   • He may not have bargain pricing but CMC has the 2nd best TDCostTD Cost is the implied cost of a touchdown based on the player's salary and the player's TD prop line. This field shows what you'd have to pay for the player (in salary) if you wanted a guaranteed touchdown from him, based on his probability of scoring and his current salary. Low...
   • His TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). line is -375, SF is a 10 point favorite, and GB is ranked 22nd against RBs
2. George Kittle, TE, SF, $5,200
   • Third best TDCost, facing the 26th ranked TE defense, he led all tight ends this season with 1,020 receiving yards

Draft a lineup in this week’s free NFL DFS contest for prizes!

The regular season may be over, but the biggest NFL DFS competition is just getting started with Wild Card round. These playoff slates are jam-packed with matchups that will have you couch-bound all weekend.

Scoring Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

1. Los Angeles Rams (+3.0) at Detroit Lions (-3.0)– O/U 51.5
   • The Cardinals have given up over 100 points throughout the last three weeks.
   • Arizona has a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. of 40.8 FPsFantasy points against running backs, which bodes well for Kenneth Walker III.
   • Geno Smith hasn’t scored less than 17 fantasy points in the last three weeks and faces the 25th-ranked D in fantasy points allowed to QBs.
2. Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) at Green Bay Packers (+7.5) – O/U 50.5
   • Jordan Love has been on fire during Green Bay’s three-game win streak, throwing for 9 TDs and no interceptions.
   • Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson will have a chance to do some damage against a GB defense ranked 26th in fantasy points allowed to TEs.
   • The Cowboys are giving up 133 rushing yards per game in the last four weeks.
3. Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Houston Texans (2.5) – O/U 44.5
   • Texans QB C.J. Stroud was the AFC Offensive Player of the Week six times this season
   • Texans WR Nico Collins posted a career-high 195 yards receiving against the Colts in week 18.
   • The Browns have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs
   • Joe Flacco is red hot, having thrown for 300+ yards in his last four games

Rebound Plays:  3 stars coming off one or more dud performances, with strong matchups

1. Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions, $6,200
   • Goff has been held to under 15 fantasy points in two of his last three games but his old team is ranked 29th in FPs allowed to quarterbacks.
   • The Lions have averaged over 30 points per game during their last four.
   • LA’s QB has avoided throwing an interception in five of his last seven games.
2. Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams, $7,500
   • The star wideout had just 27 receiving yards in Week 18, but Detroit has a monstrous DvPL4 of 59.0 FPs allowed to wide receivers.
   • The veteran receiver has brought down a TD in four of his last five games.
   • Kupp has a median of 3.0 red zone opportunities per game across the last four weeks.
3. Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills, $7,400
   • After four straight games under 50 yards, Diggs finally broke out a bit in Week 18 with 87 receiving yards.
   • Diggs has a target share of 28% during the last four weeks.
   • With teammate Gabe Davis potentially nursing an injury, Diggs may have even more opportunities than usual.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

1. Tony Pollard, RB, DAL, $6,100
   • Lowest TDCostTD Cost is the implied cost of a touchdown based on the player's salary and the player's TD prop line. This field shows what you'd have to pay for the player (in salary) if you wanted a guaranteed touchdown from him, based on his probability of scoring and his current salary. Low... and a solid matchup (DAL -7) at home against Green Bay, which allowed the fifth-most rushing yards this season; -159 TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). line
2. Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC, $6,400
   • One+ TDs in each of his last four games; 32.5 FPs in his last outing; -139 TD prop line, at home (-5); MIA is normally a tough RB matchup but perhaps not in 4-degree weather
3. Khalil Shakir, WR, BUF, $3,400
   • Lowest TDCost of any WR; #2 receiver with Gabe Davis out; faces shaky PIT coverage

Draft a lineup in this week’s free NFL DFS contest for prizes!

As the curtain closes on the NFL’s regular season, welcome to Week 18 – the final act where playoff dreams hang in the balance, and fantasy rosters become more of a gamble than a Vegas slot machine. It’s the time of year when “big playoff implications” really means “let’s see who chokes and who becomes a legend.”

Keep a wary eye on the Chiefs, Rams, 49ers and Browns, though, as they might be giving their starters more bench time than an underwhelming second-stringer. And for those hanging their hopes on Jacksonville’s golden boy, Trevor Lawrence – he’s a “gametime decision.” In the world of fantasy, that’s about as comforting as hearing your pilot might Google “how to land” mid-flight.

Last but not least, don’t forget to factor in contract incentives, which always play a factor.

Now let’s get to this week’s big 3 games…

Scoring Alert: 3 Games That Could Generate Fat Fantasy Totals

1. Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) – O/U 47.5
   • The Cardinals have given up over 100 points throughout the last three weeks.
   • Arizona has a DvPL4Defense Versus Position (Last 4 Games) This is the median number of fantasy points the opponent has allowed to players of the same position. The calculation is based on the opponent's last 4 games. of 40.8 FPsFantasy points against running backs, which bodes well for Kenneth Walker III.
   • Geno Smith hasn’t scored less than 17 fantasy points in the last three weeks and faces the 25th-ranked D in fantasy points allowed to QBs.
2. Dallas Cowboys (-13.5) at Washington Commanders (+13.5) – O/U 47.0
   • CeeDee Lamb is coming off of a game with 44.2 FPs and has a juicy matchup with the 31st-ranked defense in fantasy points allowed to pass catchers.
   • Lamb won’t be the only Dallas receiver that could feast in Week 18 as Washington has a DvPL4 of 51.1 fantasy points against WRs.
   • Washington has coughed up 181 rushing yards per game during their last three games.
3. Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Detroit Lions (+3.5) – O/U 45.5
   • The Lions have allowed nearly 700 passing yards during the last two weeks, 373 of which were given up to the Vikings.
   • Minnesota is allowing 30 points per game during their recent three-game losing skid.
   • Amon-Ra St. Brown has at least 100 yards and a TD in each of his last three games.

Rebound Plays:  3 stars coming off one or more dud performances, with strong matchups

1. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings, $8,500
   • Jefferson scored 29.1 FPs in his last outing against the Lions two weeks ago.
   • The Minnesota star has seen exactly 10 targets in each of his last three games.
   • Detroit is ranked 29th in the league in FPs given up to WRs.
2. A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles, $8,700
   • With just 5 targets, Brown is coming off his second-lowest target total of the year, but the Eagles plan to rectify that in Week 18.
   • Even with his low target total in Week 17, Brown still has a Tgt%L4 of 31%.
   • Brown managed 80 yards on 11 targets in his last matchup with the Giants, who are ranked 28th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed receivers.
3. Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $7,600
   • Before Week 17, White had a TD in four straight games.
   • The Panthers are second to last in the league in FPs given up to RBs.
   • Even after a Week 17 dud, White is still averaging nearly 20 fantasy points per game in his last four.

Prop Bonanza: Flex players with high prop-to-salary ratios

1. Tony Pollard, RB, DAL, $6,500
   • 2nd best TDCostTD Cost is the implied cost of a touchdown based on the player's salary and the player's TD prop line. This field shows what you'd have to pay for the player (in salary) if you wanted a guaranteed touchdown from him, based on his probability of scoring and his current salary. Low...; -162 TD propA "TD Prop line" (or touchdown proposition line) is the odds of a player scoring at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in a game. The table below shows the approximate implied probability of a player scoring a TD in a game, based on his TD prop line (moneyline). line; faces porous WAS run D; DAL is heavy favorite.
2. Josh Reynolds, WR, DET, $3,300
   • 2nd best WR TDCost; huge contract incentives for a TD and 36+ yards; faces weaker than average WR pass coverage in Minny.
3. Jamaal Williams, RB, NO, $5,200
   • Low TDCost at $11.60; high opportunity potential with RB Kamara out; must-win game for the Saints

Draft a lineup in this week’s free NFL DFS contest for prizes!